EP36's March to Madness

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 131-99-5 [+23.42]
2nd Halves: 77-56-1 [+17.30]

Well the 2nd halves have really not worked well this week. Difficult time yesterday managing keeping up with the in-progress games and doing Christmasy stuff. Probably would have been better off just doing the full games which went 3-1. Live & learn.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.23.11

[5pm ET]
California-UNLV Under 138.5 [-110]
Two underrated defenses here. Cal is holding opponents to 38% shooting and 56 ppg. UNLV holds opponents to 40% and 65 ppg. Cal has seen UNDERs cash in nine of then posted totals this season. Vegas has seemingly been better defensively when they haven't been trying to run 'n gun the whole game. Between the two teams with totals set between 130 & 139.5, UNDERs have hit in seven of eight.

[No coincidences]

12.23.11

[5pm ET]
California-UNLV Under 138.5 [-110]
Two underrated defenses here. Cal is holding opponents to 38% shooting and 56 ppg. UNLV holds opponents to 40% and 65 ppg. Cal has seen UNDERs cash in nine of then posted totals this season. Vegas has seemingly been better defensively when they haven't been trying to run 'n gun the whole game. Between the two teams with totals set between 130 & 139.5, UNDERs have hit in seven of eight.

Good to see you on this. I was thinking the same thing. Actually figured it'd be in the low-130's line-wise.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Clemson-Southern Illinois Over 63 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

[5:30pm ET]
Mississippi Valley State-Wisconsin Under 124.5 [-110]
Wisconsin has been absolutely dominant at home this season, allowing just 40 ppg on 31% shooting. MVSU is shooting just 38% on the season, so that should play into the Badgers defensive strengths today. Of their eight home games, Wisconsin has allowed 42 or less in six of eight. Offensively, they remain ruthlessly efficient with a 67 ppg average on 45% shooting, 40% from deep. MSVU has big issues defending the arc, so expect the Badgers to hit their numbers there. Still, because of their slow style - Wisconsin has only topped 70 points four times this season and only one of those beat this number. If Wisconsins puts the clamps on MSVU today and holds them in the 40s, look for their UNDERs run to continue as they have hit UNDERs in all five home games and seven of nine overall for posted totals.

[ksnooksk]

Love that under. Great analysis!

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Clemson-Southern Illinois Over 63 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

The Vegas game has been running real hot and cold. Big droughts and big hot streaks of points. Went scoreless for two minutes and then the last 1:30 there were 12 points. Gonna be a tough haul I think to get the under done though even with the blowout. Thought Cal's D would be much better.

[EaglesPhan36]

No chance for this Vegas under.

[No coincidences]

Cal having a relapse to the Mizzou game.

They look lost and disinterested defensively away from home.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Tennessee Tech-Bethune Cookman Under 68 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

[7pm ET]
Manhattan-George Mason Over 133 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

One for the road. Merry Christmas dudes.

[8pm ET]
Pittsburgh Team Total Over 75.5 [-110]
Panthers have been money at home, 80 ppg on 49% shooting. Wagner has played well early this season, but has given up points to the top level competition they have played - 78 to UConn who paraded to the FT line against this club.

[EaglesPhan36]

This damn Wisconsin game is going to go over.


MSVU no defense.

[No coincidences]

This damn Wisconsin game is going to go over.


MSVU no defense.

They're calling shooting fouls with 2 minutes left in a 35-point game.

[No coincidences]

Tried their best to get that over EP!

That was ridiculous.

[EaglesPhan36]

2nd Half: Xavier-Hawaii Over 73

[EaglesPhan36]

Tried their best to get that over EP!

That was ridiculous.

Yeah I was gonna murder a Badger if someone made a shot on their last possession!

[EaglesPhan36]

12.27.11

[7pm ET]
[1st Half] Pittsburgh-Notre Dame Under 60.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Minnesota-Illinois Over 67 [-110]

[GWOZOZO]

12.27.11 [7pm ET] [1st Half] Pittsburgh-Notre Dame Under 60.5 [-110]

[mbs4]

[2nd Half] Minnesota-Illinois Over 67 [-110]

This one looks like a big advantage with 72 first half possessions right?

[jimmy007oc]

12.27.11

[7pm ET]
[1st Half] Pittsburgh-Notre Dame Under 60.5 [-110]

FML, i though it was 2nd half

[EaglesPhan36]

This one looks like a big advantage with 72 first half possessions right?

Wouldn't say big, but the number set for the 2nd half was well below what the # of expected possessions was for the 2nd half even though the points-per-possession for the 1st half was less than 1:1. All in all though, needed OT to bail it out still ... but we'll take that.

I'll take overs every time though when they set a # about ten points below the # of expected possessions. Taking Celtics-Heat based on that too.

[GWOZOZO]

Wouldn't say big, but the number set for the 2nd half was well below what the # of expected possessions was for the 2nd half even though the points-per-possession for the 1st half was less than 1:1. All in all though, needed OT to bail it out still ... but we'll take that. I'll take overs every time though when they set a # about ten points below the # of expected possessions. Taking Celtics-Heat based on that too.

Yes, We will take it!

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 138-101-5 [+28.22]
2nd Halves: 81-56-1 [+21.30]

[EaglesPhan36]

12.28.11

[5:30pm ET]
Northwestern +16.5 [-110]
The Wildcats Princeton-style offense seems to give Ohio State some issues. Northwestern played OSU very tough in both meetings last season and could arguably be a more dangerous offensive squad right now. Ohio State is tough as nails at home, allowing just 52 ppg. Most of those numbers though are inflated against poor competition. Northwestern will challenge the Buckeyes to get out on their three point shooters who are netting 37% from beyond the arc. Sullinger figures to get the ball plenty in the post and will probably live on the FT line much like he did in both meetings last season. Big difference this year is OSU is not shooting as many threes, but going to the rack more often. That should help Northwestern which has struggled defending the arc. Shurna & Crawford must hit early and often for Northwestern to compete.

[EaglesPhan36]

Perimeter D sucks for Northwestern.

[EaglesPhan36]

[8pm ET]
Charlotte-Arkansas Over 140.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Oklahoma State-SMU Under 67 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Jewed by overtime hard in that SMU game. Only 47 pts in the 2nd half, but went to OT and now fukkin double OT. FU.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Indiana State-Drake Over 68.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Colorado State-UTEP Under 71.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Central Arkansas-UNLV Under 85 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 141-104-5 [+27.92]
2nd Halves: 83-58-1 [+21.10]

Last pick shows why I shouldn't go out on my own. Formula pointed to Over, but I thought it'd slow down in a blow out.