That'd be fancy, but I don't think the Eagles are going to make a run. Just hoping they make it to the next round right now! Pats look tough.
Pomeroy Plays
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EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#421Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#422Regular KenPom Plays: 94-83-7 [+6.85 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-1 [+2.95 units]
1.5.11
Louisville -10 [KP -13]
Drexel +4.5 [KP +1]
George Mason -5 [KP -8]
Delaware -7 [KP -11]
UCF -11.5 [KP -14]
Duke -18 [KP -21]
Southern Miss -14.5 [KP -17]
Air Force -1.5 [KP -4]
UC-Irvine -6 [KP -9]
Georgia Southern +6.5 [KP +3]
Comment -
WilforthRestricted User
- 05-10-08
- 16309
#423Air force is my favorite of them all. BOL.Comment -
DIRTYDIRTYSBR MVP
- 11-12-09
- 1144
#424thanks again ur plays are like gold lovin ur effortsComment -
Brian891SBR MVP
- 04-28-10
- 2049
#425Gonna roll with irvine tonight.Comment -
melissaphillipsSBR Rookie
- 04-27-10
- 20
#426why did you not go with purdue today?Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#427Purdue did not fit the formula. When I was comparing the lines, Purdue was either -7 or -7.5. KenPom line was 9, so it was not bigger than the 2.5 point difference we look for here. Look in the 1st post here for the formula that these plays use.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#428Alright, my own picks have been well .. atrocious, but I have been keeping track of the Pomeroy Rankings already. For anyone not familiar, check 'em out you. www.kenpom.com Guy basically factors in all the important things in the game, including tempo, efficiency and several other things. Certainly there is a small sample size so far, but I've noticed a few things that I want to track with this thread instead of making my own stupid plays. Here's what I have noticed: When his scoreline predicts the FAVORITE will win by more than 2-2.5 points more than the actual line, taking the FAVORITE is advisable. When his scoreline predicts the UNDERDOG to lose by 2-2.5 points less than the line, taking the UNDERDOG is advisable. This certainly will not work in all games, but I am going to try to pick out the ones that have the biggest margins of difference to track and see how it goes. Will start with some of the night games tonight. Totals so far, it is too early to tell what his predictions will do. Do what you will with this info. Hopefully it helps make some profits somehow. What I will include below is the actual line and in parenthesis, the KenPom prediction.
Thought I'd repost that for anyone new to the thread. Since starting this, I have also started "REVERSE PLAYS" where when KenPom has the line at six points or higher of a differential, we take the team this goes against. For example, Duke was favored by 18 tonight against UAB. If KenPom had predicted a 25 point Duke win, the "REVERSE PLAY" would call for taking UAB and the points. Hope that all makes sense.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#429Regular KenPom Plays: 100-87-7 [+8.65 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-1 [+2.95 units]
6-4 last night.
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DaOutlaw1xSBR High Roller
- 12-15-10
- 191
#430Stanford looks like a huge play almost a reverse though thoughts???Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#4311.6.11
Loyola Chicago -4.5 [KP -7]
Stanford +5 [KP +1]
St.Mary's -9.5 [KP -12]
Pepperdine -7.5 [KP -11]
Washington State -13 [KP -16]
Idaho +7 [KP +4]
Comment -
DaOutlaw1xSBR High Roller
- 12-15-10
- 191
#432Cincy -8 1/2 [KP -11]Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#433They were -9 at my book, trying to stay consistent, I did not list them. Line also opened at 9.Comment -
DaOutlaw1xSBR High Roller
- 12-15-10
- 191
#434Ok Thanks for all of your hard workComment -
zanman822SBR Sharp
- 06-18-10
- 322
#435Eagles would you play Cinci -9 tonight or just stick with you other kenpom plays?Comment -
jjgolfSBR MVP
- 12-08-09
- 1705
#436wasn't there a system with ken about the lower ranking teams getting 10+ points or something like that . i remember from last year but i could be wrongComment -
dchecksSBR MVP
- 01-04-08
- 1585
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DaOutlaw1xSBR High Roller
- 12-15-10
- 191
#439The line has moved more than that now it's at -9Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#440
EP, I'd be wary of that Pepperdine play. San Diego sucks, but so does Pepperdine and I don't think they should ever be favored by that much.
Comment -
dchecksSBR MVP
- 01-04-08
- 1585
#441Doesn't look like Bell is in the starting line-up..Comment -
PatrickBatemanSBR Sharp
- 03-29-08
- 367
#442Seems like there is a lot of plays doing thisComment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#443Started this 11.19.10 and through 1.6.11 - there are 200 "regular" plays. That's 48 days I think, so an average of four per day ... not really that many. Some days there are more than others - obviously the high volume days like Saturday and Sunday. Some days there might be 1 or 2 only. Never can tell.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#444Regular KenPom Plays: 105-88-7 [+12.60 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-1 [+2.95 units]
5-1 last night and both dogs turned out as outright winners. Will have any that fit the formula today up in about an hour or so.
Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#4451.7.11
Rider -13.5 [KP -16]
This is a little bit of an iffy one as the line has already moved some from the opener at 14, but it's the only one that fits the criteria today. Use your own judgment on this one.
Comment -
HoulihansTXBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-12-09
- 30566
#446
I'm going to push the eject button, b/c one of these missiles is bound to hit.Comment -
tonislugSBR Hustler
- 11-19-10
- 54
#447how does this game fit the criteria, kp says 16 vs line 14. Thought the differential had to be 6 or better???Comment -
jjgolfSBR MVP
- 12-08-09
- 1705
#448Niagara 2-9 ats all lined games this yearComment -
southpaw74SBR Hall of Famer
- 12-21-09
- 7104
#450Rider is 5-1 ats in road gamesComment -
HoulihansTXBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-12-09
- 30566
#451Why is the line dropping then?
went from 13.5 to 12 this morning alone.Comment -
southpaw74SBR Hall of Famer
- 12-21-09
- 7104
#452Maybe because rider hasn't beaten them by more than 10 in the last 5 tries?Comment -
LockPickMasterSBR MVP
- 02-15-09
- 1943
#453Isn't line movement based on balancing the money on both sides?Comment -
zanman822SBR Sharp
- 06-18-10
- 322
#454Niagara is just really bad this year cant put my money on them but the may cover bing at home.Comment -
GGZOLASBR MVP
- 06-30-06
- 1118
#455tough laying that much chalk on the road regardless of how shitty home team isComment
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