Pomeroy Plays

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #421
    That'd be fancy, but I don't think the Eagles are going to make a run. Just hoping they make it to the next round right now! Pats look tough.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #422
      Regular KenPom Plays: 94-83-7 [+6.85 units]
      Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-1 [+2.95 units]

      1.5.11

      Louisville -10 [KP -13]
      Drexel +4.5 [KP +1]
      George Mason -5 [KP -8]
      Delaware -7 [KP -11]
      UCF -11.5 [KP -14]
      Duke -18 [KP -21]
      Southern Miss -14.5 [KP -17]
      Air Force -1.5 [KP -4]
      UC-Irvine -6 [KP -9]
      Georgia Southern +6.5 [KP +3]
      Comment
      • Wilforth
        Restricted User
        • 05-10-08
        • 16309

        #423
        Air force is my favorite of them all. BOL.
        Comment
        • DIRTYDIRTY
          SBR MVP
          • 11-12-09
          • 1144

          #424
          thanks again ur plays are like gold lovin ur efforts
          Comment
          • Brian891
            SBR MVP
            • 04-28-10
            • 2049

            #425
            Gonna roll with irvine tonight.
            Comment
            • melissaphillips
              SBR Rookie
              • 04-27-10
              • 20

              #426
              why did you not go with purdue today?
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #427
                Purdue did not fit the formula. When I was comparing the lines, Purdue was either -7 or -7.5. KenPom line was 9, so it was not bigger than the 2.5 point difference we look for here. Look in the 1st post here for the formula that these plays use.
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #428
                  Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                  Alright, my own picks have been well .. atrocious, but I have been keeping track of the Pomeroy Rankings already. For anyone not familiar, check 'em out you. www.kenpom.com Guy basically factors in all the important things in the game, including tempo, efficiency and several other things. Certainly there is a small sample size so far, but I've noticed a few things that I want to track with this thread instead of making my own stupid plays. Here's what I have noticed: When his scoreline predicts the FAVORITE will win by more than 2-2.5 points more than the actual line, taking the FAVORITE is advisable. When his scoreline predicts the UNDERDOG to lose by 2-2.5 points less than the line, taking the UNDERDOG is advisable. This certainly will not work in all games, but I am going to try to pick out the ones that have the biggest margins of difference to track and see how it goes. Will start with some of the night games tonight. Totals so far, it is too early to tell what his predictions will do. Do what you will with this info. Hopefully it helps make some profits somehow. What I will include below is the actual line and in parenthesis, the KenPom prediction.

                  Thought I'd repost that for anyone new to the thread. Since starting this, I have also started "REVERSE PLAYS" where when KenPom has the line at six points or higher of a differential, we take the team this goes against. For example, Duke was favored by 18 tonight against UAB. If KenPom had predicted a 25 point Duke win, the "REVERSE PLAY" would call for taking UAB and the points. Hope that all makes sense.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #429
                    Regular KenPom Plays: 100-87-7 [+8.65 units]
                    Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-1 [+2.95 units]

                    6-4 last night.
                    Comment
                    • DaOutlaw1x
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-15-10
                      • 191

                      #430
                      Stanford looks like a huge play almost a reverse though thoughts???
                      Comment
                      • EaglesPhan36
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-06-06
                        • 71662

                        #431
                        1.6.11

                        Loyola Chicago -4.5 [KP -7]
                        Stanford +5 [KP +1]
                        St.Mary's -9.5 [KP -12]
                        Pepperdine -7.5 [KP -11]
                        Washington State -13 [KP -16]
                        Idaho +7 [KP +4]
                        Comment
                        • DaOutlaw1x
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-15-10
                          • 191

                          #432
                          Cincy -8 1/2 [KP -11]
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #433
                            They were -9 at my book, trying to stay consistent, I did not list them. Line also opened at 9.
                            Comment
                            • DaOutlaw1x
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-15-10
                              • 191

                              #434
                              Ok Thanks for all of your hard work
                              Comment
                              • zanman822
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 06-18-10
                                • 322

                                #435
                                Eagles would you play Cinci -9 tonight or just stick with you other kenpom plays?
                                Comment
                                • jjgolf
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-08-09
                                  • 1705

                                  #436
                                  wasn't there a system with ken about the lower ranking teams getting 10+ points or something like that . i remember from last year but i could be wrong
                                  Comment
                                  • The_Kid
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-09-08
                                    • 5049

                                    #437
                                    Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                    1.6.11

                                    Pepperdine -7.5 [KP -11]
                                    EP, I'd be wary of that Pepperdine play. San Diego sucks, but so does Pepperdine and I don't think they should ever be favored by that much.
                                    Comment
                                    • dchecks
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-04-08
                                      • 1585

                                      #438
                                      Originally posted by The_Kid
                                      EP, I'd be wary of that Pepperdine play. San Diego sucks, but so does Pepperdine and I don't think they should ever be favored by that much.


                                      If Bell is playing its a play if he is out be very cautious.. He is Questionable at the moment..
                                      Comment
                                      • DaOutlaw1x
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-15-10
                                        • 191

                                        #439
                                        The line has moved more than that now it's at -9
                                        Comment
                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-06-06
                                          • 71662

                                          #440
                                          Originally posted by zanman822
                                          Eagles would you play Cinci -9 tonight or just stick with you other kenpom plays?
                                          Always tough to gauge the rivalry games. I'd probably take the points with Xavier. Cincy is still a bit unproven to me against solid competition.

                                          EP, I'd be wary of that Pepperdine play. San Diego sucks, but so does Pepperdine and I don't think they should ever be favored by that much.
                                          It falls into the formula, there's plenty of plays that do that I don't agree with, but it's all about the consistency of finding the ones that fall into the formula and then you decide what to play and not to play.
                                          Comment
                                          • dchecks
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-04-08
                                            • 1585

                                            #441
                                            Doesn't look like Bell is in the starting line-up..
                                            Comment
                                            • PatrickBateman
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 03-29-08
                                              • 367

                                              #442
                                              Seems like there is a lot of plays doing this
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #443
                                                Started this 11.19.10 and through 1.6.11 - there are 200 "regular" plays. That's 48 days I think, so an average of four per day ... not really that many. Some days there are more than others - obviously the high volume days like Saturday and Sunday. Some days there might be 1 or 2 only. Never can tell.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #444
                                                  Regular KenPom Plays: 105-88-7 [+12.60 units]
                                                  Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-1 [+2.95 units]

                                                  5-1 last night and both dogs turned out as outright winners. Will have any that fit the formula today up in about an hour or so.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #445
                                                    1.7.11

                                                    Rider -13.5 [KP -16]

                                                    This is a little bit of an iffy one as the line has already moved some from the opener at 14, but it's the only one that fits the criteria today. Use your own judgment on this one.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • HoulihansTX
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 02-12-09
                                                      • 30566

                                                      #446
                                                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                      1.7.11 Rider -13.5 [KP -16] This is a little bit of an iffy one as the line has already moved some from the opener at 14, but it's the only one that fits the criteria today. Use your own judgment on this one.
                                                      NIagara is 0-7 ATS.

                                                      I'm going to push the eject button, b/c one of these missiles is bound to hit.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • tonislug
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 11-19-10
                                                        • 54

                                                        #447
                                                        how does this game fit the criteria, kp says 16 vs line 14. Thought the differential had to be 6 or better???
                                                        Comment
                                                        • jjgolf
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-08-09
                                                          • 1705

                                                          #448
                                                          Niagara 2-9 ats all lined games this year
                                                          Comment
                                                          • HoulihansTX
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 02-12-09
                                                            • 30566

                                                            #449
                                                            Originally posted by jjgolf
                                                            Niagara 2-9 ats all lined games this year
                                                            Are you going to play it?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • southpaw74
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-21-09
                                                              • 7104

                                                              #450
                                                              Rider is 5-1 ats in road games
                                                              Comment
                                                              • HoulihansTX
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 02-12-09
                                                                • 30566

                                                                #451
                                                                Why is the line dropping then?

                                                                went from 13.5 to 12 this morning alone.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • southpaw74
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-21-09
                                                                  • 7104

                                                                  #452
                                                                  Maybe because rider hasn't beaten them by more than 10 in the last 5 tries?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • LockPickMaster
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-15-09
                                                                    • 1943

                                                                    #453
                                                                    Isn't line movement based on balancing the money on both sides?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • zanman822
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 06-18-10
                                                                      • 322

                                                                      #454
                                                                      Niagara is just really bad this year cant put my money on them but the may cover bing at home.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • GGZOLA
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 06-30-06
                                                                        • 1118

                                                                        #455
                                                                        tough laying that much chalk on the road regardless of how shitty home team is
                                                                        Comment
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