Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[johnsonbig11]

Hey...I've been following this thread for a week or so now and unfortunately haven't had a chance to get with a book that allows me to buy points. However, I've followed the stratagy of looking for pinny lines that show an edge of -109+ around 3:45 everyday EST. I also look for non-public plays (less than 50% bets placed on a team). The last two nights where this criteria was met, the results were 8-1 two nights ago and 1-1 last night w/o buying points. As for leans of the same -109+ and being public plays(51% or higher), the results were 3-7 two nights ago and 2-6 for a combined 5-13 record. I'm going to continue to follow this and can report what I'm finding, but it seems to look good so far. I can start another thread if needed, but figured since the talk here deals with a lot of looks at the leans, it fit. Any thoughts or input would be appreciated! Here's to continued success!

[jolmscheid]

Hey...I've been following this thread for a week or so now and unfortunately haven't had a chance to get with a book that allows me to buy points. However, I've followed the stratagy of looking for pinny lines that show an edge of -109+ around 3:45 everyday EST. I also look for non-public plays (less than 50% bets placed on a team). The last two nights where this criteria was met, the results were 8-1 two nights ago and 1-1 last night w/o buying points. As for leans of the same -109+ and being public plays(51% or higher), the results were 3-7 two nights ago and 2-6 for a combined 5-13 record. I'm going to continue to follow this and can report what I'm finding, but it seems to look good so far. I can start another thread if needed, but figured since the talk here deals with a lot of looks at the leans, it fit. Any thoughts or input would be appreciated! Here's to continued success!

Johnson great point here! So what you are saying is that using the Pinny -109 lean that the public is NOT on is more profitable? Please explain more and post your findings here.....I don't think it will be a problem with Cheme, impper, or Chili!

[jolmscheid]

Chili....I had some of the same bets as you did last night in CBB and I went 6-1-1 too!!!

I had:

Cleveland State
Valparaiso
N. Illinois
Missouri (This one pushed and yet they were UP by 20 at halftime!)
SE Missouri State (My only loss)
Rider
Tenn. Chattanooga
Murray State

[chilidog]

Johnson great point here! So what you are saying is that using the Pinny -109 lean that the public is NOT on is more profitable? Please explain more and post your findings here.....I don't think it will be a problem with Cheme, impper, or Chili!

Nah, I don't have a problem with it.

Chili....I had some of the same bets as you did last night in CBB and I went 6-1-1 too!!!

I had:

Cleveland State
Valparaiso
N. Illinois
Missouri (This one pushed and yet they were UP by 20 at halftime!)
SE Missouri State (My only loss)
Rider
Tenn. Chattanooga
Murray State

When did you run your numbers, though? I ran those at about 11:45-11:50am CST. When I ran the numbers at 2pm, 3pm, and 4pm, the results got worse as time went by.

[jolmscheid]

ALSO, I have been tracking betting on ALL the dogs and ALL the favs on the Moneyline for the past few days wagering TO WIN 1 unit on the favs and RISKING 1 unit on the dogs...my results have been staggering!

Dogs have gone: 7-16 for +8.8 units....this could be skewed as Virginia beating the Gophers a few nights ago was a +12 Unit winner

Favs have gone: 11-0 for +11 units!!!!! Obviously we will lose larger amounts on these, but if they win at a high rate, we are golden

Also starting to track these value plays WITHOUT buying points...my plays last night without buying 3 points was 3-5

[mjenkins3113]

Cant believe that Missouri game such bs to win by only 3

[jolmscheid]

Nah, I don't have a problem with it.



When did you run your numbers, though? I ran those at about 11:45-11:50am CST. When I ran the numbers at 2pm, 3pm, and 4pm, the results got worse as time went by.

I ran the numbers at 1:30 or so.....I really think that if we do the Pinny lean of -108+ AND lines where our books are OFF if Pinny's by .5+ points, then we will be good...I plan on doing ALL plays once per day because it's just more convenient for me....from now on, I will plan on running my plays from between 11-2 no matter if it's a weekday or a weekend....the numbers have been doing well by doing this

[impper]

Hey...I've been following this thread for a week or so now and unfortunately haven't had a chance to get with a book that allows me to buy points. However, I've followed the stratagy of looking for pinny lines that show an edge of -109+ around 3:45 everyday EST. I also look for non-public plays (less than 50% bets placed on a team). The last two nights where this criteria was met, the results were 8-1 two nights ago and 1-1 last night w/o buying points. As for leans of the same -109+ and being public plays(51% or higher), the results were 3-7 two nights ago and 2-6 for a combined 5-13 record. I'm going to continue to follow this and can report what I'm finding, but it seems to look good so far. I can start another thread if needed, but figured since the talk here deals with a lot of looks at the leans, it fit. Any thoughts or input would be appreciated! Here's to continued success!

Very interesting, Johnson. This is getting into reverse line movement territory:

Could it be that a pinny lean with no public money on the play is a game where pinny is leaning that way on their own, WHEREAS a pinny lean with public money on the play is pinny reacting to heavy public money one way or the other? I'd be interested in seeing how these plays fare over the next few weeks.

[jolmscheid]

What do you think Chili??? I like just knowing that I will only do Pinny lean plays or plays where my book is offering a line different than Pinny's, and using impper's formula, and doing it earlier in the day for all games, call it good and sit back and watch...

[jolmscheid]

What do you think of my above idea / plan too impper?

[impper]

ALSO, I have been tracking betting on ALL the dogs and ALL the favs on the Moneyline for the past few days wagering TO WIN 1 unit on the favs and RISKING 1 unit on the dogs...my results have been staggering! Dogs have gone: 7-16 for +8.8 units....this could be skewed as Virginia beating the Gophers a few nights ago was a +12 Unit winner Favs have gone: 11-0 for +11 units!!!!! Obviously we will lose larger amounts on these, but if they win at a high rate, we are golden Also starting to track these value plays WITHOUT buying points...my plays last night without buying 3 points was 3-5

Very interesting, Jolm. I believe I'll start to track this, as well

I have noticed that I do VERY VERY well on my favorite plays, and the ones I do lose I lose by only .5 or 1 point! Moneyline would obviously be very profitable in these instances!

[chilidog]

ALSO, I have been tracking betting on ALL the dogs and ALL the favs on the Moneyline for the past few days wagering TO WIN 1 unit on the favs and RISKING 1 unit on the dogs...my results have been staggering!

Dogs have gone: 7-16 for +8.8 units....this could be skewed as Virginia beating the Gophers a few nights ago was a +12 Unit winner

Favs have gone: 11-0 for +11 units!!!!! Obviously we will lose larger amounts on these, but if they win at a high rate, we are golden

Also starting to track these value plays WITHOUT buying points...my plays last night without buying 3 points was 3-5

Not a bad idea actually, to track how we'd do buy also betting the ML on the value play that the calc spits out.

[impper]

Not a bad idea actually, to track how we'd do buy also betting the ML on the value play that the calc spits out.

yesterday was the first time I put money on ML dogs and also the first time ML dogs failed to show a profit I'm gonna go ahead and track it for maybe another week and see how I do.

[johnsonbig11]

Johnson great point here! So what you are saying is that using the Pinny -109 lean that the public is NOT on is more profitable? Please explain more and post your findings here.....I don't think it will be a problem with Cheme, impper, or Chili!

Yes...I've found that the -109+ is the threshold so far. It's early and I've only been following for the last two nights, but will definately continue. I plan to track it as long as I can and see what happens. I'm also seeing the higher the public play with the -109+ lean, betting opposite would work. Two examples last night were Kent St. and Appalachain St. When I ran the numbers at 3:45, Kent St. was a 75% public play and App. St. was at 74%, both with leans of -109. Kent St. failed to cover and App. St. lost straight up as -6 pt. favorites. Again, I plan to track and can report what the results are.

[chilidog]

I ran the numbers at 1:30 or so.....I really think that if we do the Pinny lean of -108+ AND lines where our books are OFF if Pinny's by .5+ points, then we will be good...I plan on doing ALL plays once per day because it's just more convenient for me....from now on, I will plan on running my plays from between 11-2 no matter if it's a weekday or a weekend....the numbers have been doing well by doing this

But what time zone are you in?

What do you think Chili??? I like just knowing that I will only do Pinny lean plays or plays where my book is offering a line different than Pinny's, and using impper's formula, and doing it earlier in the day for all games, call it good and sit back and watch...

Oh definitely, I like that idea much better. I'm still on the fence on running the numbers again around 5pm and making those plays as well. I think I'll just track it for now.

Very interesting, Jolm. I believe I'll start to track this, as well

I have noticed that I do VERY VERY well on my favorite plays, and the ones I do lose I lose by only .5 or 1 point! Moneyline would obviously be very profitable in these instances!

Yup, I completely agree. Another thing to track, heh. I do like the idea of playing them all on the moneyline though, but it'll depend on which way is more profitable.

[jolmscheid]

Sounds good Chili....Finally I think I have come to a conclusion as to how I will do this going forward:

1) I will run the numbers EVERYDAY from between 11-2 and ONLY bet the -108+ Pinny leans or where my line is off of Pinny's
2) I will use impper's formula for each play (I will only bet games where I show a .75%+ edge)
3) I will track to see what % of my plays I beat or match the Pinny closer


Sound like a good blueprint Chili and impper??


And Johnson, if you could track what you are doing and report back that would be great! What do you use for public %?

[johnsonbig11]

I use SBR live odds for the public %....is there a different place to see these?

[chilidog]

http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/

[impper]

Sounds good Chili....Finally I think I have come to a conclusion as to how I will do this going forward: 1) I will run the numbers EVERYDAY from between 11-2 and ONLY bet the -108+ Pinny leans or where my line is off of Pinny's 2) I will use impper's formula for each play (I will only bet games where I show a .75%+ edge) 3) I will track to see what % of my plays I beat or match the Pinny closer Sound like a good blueprint Chili and impper?? And Johnson, if you could track what you are doing and report back that would be great! What do you use for public %?

Sounds like a great blueprint jolm. Stick at it with discipline and I have no doubt you'll be a big winner in the longrun, especially if you're beating the closing pinnacle lines

[chilidog]

Yup! That was the hardest part, I think. Figuring out the criteria to use. But I'm fairly confident that we have it dialed in now

[impper]

Right on cue, Pinny's lines are beginning to move heavily around 10:40 AM central time. In about 20-40 minutes, god knows where those lines will be haha

[chilidog]

Yah, I'm noticing the same thing. Almost time to reel us in some fish

[slimpickins]

Jolm, sounds like a good blueprint.
Mind posting what you come up this afternoon?

[chilidog]

Jolm, sounds like a good blueprint.
Mind posting what you come up this afternoon?

Maybe you should try posting what you come up, and compare what you get to what we get, instead of just blindly tailing? I mean, what if we're not available, or too busy or whatever, and you miss out on a losing day because you hadn't figured out how to run the numbers. It's pretty simple to do.

[jolmscheid]

Sounds good guys....let's do it...I'll be running my plays in about an hour and a half or so today....usin' the filters! Ha...

Let's all track if we beat the Pinny closer 62%+ of the time

[slimpickins]

chili: tailed only a couple of times before Cheme left but have been watching the thread everyday.
I rarely blindly tail anything but this system seems to have its merits and thinking about tailing this weekend now that you smart guys have ironed out some kinks.
One thing about me is that I will never complain if I tail and a pick loses.

So I understand posters like me asking for picks might be less desirable than me posting winners, but keep in mind you have choosen to post picks on a public forum, posters like me will help keep the post active and relevant would you rather me or the poster that bitches every time a pick loses???

if this can profit over the weekend I may actually figure it out and crunch some numbers myself, I am still quite confused by it personally.

[chilidog]

Alright, I have:

CBB
Georgia -2 -165 1.23%
Canisius +13.5 -165 1.99%
Montana -1.5 -165 1.88%
Washington State +6 -165 2.52%
North Dakota +13 -165 4.97%

I'm waiting until 5pm to run the NBA numbers. For some reason, you guys seem to be doing worse when doing NBA so early in the day.

[impper]

Nice Chili, I got the same stuff as you. Kinda iffy about Canisius as Iona is favored big at -10. I got Georgia at -1.5 and Wash State at +7. No play on ND, but I have Marist +9.

[chilidog]

Yah, I really hope that ND wins, heh, it's a bigger unit play. I am playing them using your formula, so at least it brings the wager amount for the smaller plays up to a decent amount.

[impper]

Yeah, 10, 11, 12, and 13 are big value numbers for CBB so it's almost always worth betting at those points, but that seems more like a 6 pm play assuming the line holds steady at 10 and 1.952 on both sides

good luck tonight!

[slimpickins]

Thanks for posting guys. Chili: sorry if I came off like an ass, I appreciate the picks and knowledge.
I am going to sit back tonight and watch, Friday night CBB was rarely kind to me last year (usually just Ivy league crap games)

[chilidog]

Thanks for posting guys. Chili: sorry if I came off like an ass, I appreciate the picks and knowledge.
I am going to sit back tonight and watch, Friday night CBB was rarely kind to me last year (usually just Ivy league crap games)

Actually, last friday I went 22-8, and the friday before I went 14-5.

[jolmscheid]

Doin' the picks now....impper did you do NBA yet...

[linedrivr]

hey guys. just found cheme's thread over in the nba section and find it very interesting. Can see advantages here using the half point calc if you have a place to buy 3 points for -170 or less. I have access to locals but they are -110 no point buying outs so they are of no use to me thus I keep my action offshore. I currently use 5dimes, legends, greek and diamond. -190 / -195 for 3 point buying won't turn up many advantage plays utilizing the calc.

Any recommendations for a book / books that offer -170 / -165?

[jolmscheid]

Hey linedrivr...try RebateWager and BetJamaica...however I just got stopped from being able to buy points on BetJam right away using this system....I know BetUS and Sportsbook.com allow this but don't know if they will pay