Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[chilidog]

I don't know, but I cleaned up when I was being given different lines than everybody else. After some time of using them to my advantage, I don't have them anymore So yah, enjoy it while you can

[chilidog]

Also, I was just thinking; cheme's original picks were done using pinnacle and bodog lines (because his local gives him the same lines as bodog).

And even though we might not get the same lines as he was getting, his picks were very solid, and were winning like crazy, even if my book was a 1/2 point different than his play.

He didn't login to bodog's site to check the lines; he setup sbrodds to show pinny/bodog lines side by side. He didn't compare the lines with matchbook, and he did the numbers as close to gametime as he could, depending on his schedule, and he cleaned up bigtime.

[impper]

yeah it seemed like he very consistently won, but then he also admitted that his 70%+ hitrate was gonna come back down to earth at some point, as it inevitably was going to before he took a break. he did give up picking ncaa basketball for a while using his system so as far as NCAABK is going we're just going this on our own. hopefully we can be consistent winners

[jolmscheid]

OK guys I think we are looking into it too much...Idk....to me, I feel if a line is off we look for the edge...who cares of our book thinks that Pinny will move the line...you know what, it might not?? Last night I KILLED it in CBB but I went 4-4 in NBA...I ran the numbers at about 2:00.....so I think it honestly is a horse a piece picking when to do the games....

Really, I strongly think that if we stick to ONLY doing games where our book is off (Why not get that extra 1/2 point???) OR if PInny is leaning by -108+ to one side, then we bet those games ONLY!!!! It's all about beating the closer...if we make our bets and we are consistently matching or beating the closer, then we should be good right???

And finally, I have been thinking a lot...it seems like we always win more than we lose (Most of the time), but our big bets lose and our small bets win, and we are down for the night....Can someone show me mathematically that it is worse to just bet these ALL for the same amount??? Wouldnt that cut down on the variance???

I have come to the conclusion that the timing does not matter as long as we are getting points in our favor at our book OR if Pinny is leaning towards one side at -108+....yes some lines will move against us, but lines can move against us even if we wait until 30 mins. before gametime!!!

OK impper and Chili....what do you think?????? HA HA...Hit me!

[chilidog]

OK guys I think we are looking into it too much...Idk....to me, I feel if a line is off we look for the edge...who cares of our book thinks that Pinny will move the line...you know what, it might not?? Last night I KILLED it in CBB but I went 4-4 in NBA...I ran the numbers at about 2:00.....so I think it honestly is a horse a piece picking when to do the games....

Really, I strongly think that if we stick to ONLY doing games where our book is off (Why not get that extra 1/2 point???) OR if PInny is leaning by -108+ to one side, then we bet those games ONLY!!!! It's all about beating the closer...if we make our bets and we are consistently matching or beating the closer, then we should be good right???

And finally, I have been thinking a lot...it seems like we always win more than we lose (Most of the time), but our big bets lose and our small bets win, and we are down for the night....Can someone show me mathematically that it is worse to just bet these ALL for the same amount??? Wouldnt that cut down on the variance???

I have come to the conclusion that the timing does not matter as long as we are getting points in our favor at our book OR if Pinny is leaning towards one side at -108+....yes some lines will move against us, but lines can move against us even if we wait until 30 mins. before gametime!!!

OK impper and Chili....what do you think?????? HA HA...Hit me!

Jolm, I ran the numbers for november, and just flatbetting 2 units each pick, I would've made 5 times as much as I did, for what it's worth. What picks do you have for today?

[chilidog]

Running the numbers again, I now have:

NBA
Cleveland +8.5 -165 1.45%

CBB
Arizona State +12.5 -165 2.63%
Rider -2.5 -165 1.96%
Loyola Maryland -1.5 -165 1.88%
Tennessee Chat +9.5 -165 1.27%
UMKC +12.5 -165 4.47%
Murray State -1 -165 2.03%
Valparaiso -1.5 -165 2.63%
Northern Illinois +12.5 -165 2.25%
Western Illinois +9.5 -165 1.34%

[impper]

Jolm, I ran the numbers for november, and just flatbetting 2 units each pick, I would've made 5 times as much as I did, for what it's worth. What picks do you have for today?

you mean flatbetting also at -105 without point buying, right?

[chilidog]

Correct. I didn't run the numbers with buying the 3 points. I made more money in october with buying the 3 points, and would've made a lot more money in november had I not bought the 3 points. For this week, I've been splitting, so buying 3 points is making it hurt a lot more.

[impper]

And finally, I have been thinking a lot...it seems like we always win more than we lose (Most of the time), but our big bets lose and our small bets win, and we are down for the night....Can someone show me mathematically that it is worse to just bet these ALL for the same amount??? Wouldnt that cut down on the variance???

I have come to the conclusion that the timing does not matter as long as we are getting points in our favor at our book OR if Pinny is leaning towards one side at -108+....yes some lines will move against us, but lines can move against us even if we wait until 30 mins. before gametime!!!

OK impper and Chili....what do you think?????? HA HA...Hit me!

okay let's assume 1,000 trials. now i'm going to put some numbers into the calc so work with me...

Betting a favorite at -6 with a line of -110 on pinnacle and +100 on the dog, and buying 3 points down to -3, brings us to -190, for an edge of 1.64% at -170. So let's look at the implied probabilities:

Win prob: 61.01%
Loss prob: 34.32%
Push prob: 4.67%

Now let's say you get a free half-point somehow. Now with this same line, with -2.5, we have an edge of 4.31% at -170. Implied probabilities:

Win prob: 65.67%
Loss prob: 34.33%

So let's assume you want to bet each of these games 1,000 times. In the first scenario, we are betting $50 on all of the games and so the same amount of units no matter the edge.

So over 1,000 trials, at $50 each

game one:

610 winners for +$17,934
343 losers for -$17,150
47 pushes for $0

Total: +$784

game two:

657 winners for +$19,316
343 losers for -$17,150

Total: +2,166

Flatbetting we get a grand total of $2,166 + $784 = $2,950

Now the edge is about 4.3% and 1.6%, so the edge on our higher edge game is about three times that of the edge on our smaller game. That makes the calculation fairly simple: We bet $25 on the low edge game, and $75 on the high edge game, so we're still betting the same amount of money as in our first scenario.

Game one 1.63% edge, 1,000 trials at $25 each:

610 winners for +$8,967
343 losers for -$8575
47 pushes for $0

Net Profit = +$392

Now our 4.31% edge game at $75 per wager:

657 winners for +$28,973
343 losers for -$25,725

Net Profit of +$3,248

Total $3,248 + 392 = $3,640

So to compare:

Flat unit sizing = $2,950 profit, varying unit size with bigger edge = $3,640 profit.

I used simple numbers, but this should hold true. Our bigger edge games give us HIGHER implied probabilities and our lower edge games give us LOWER implied probabilities, so it MAKES SENSE to wager more on a game with a higher edge!

Hope this helps

[impper]

yesterday i was saved by 5 games out of a total 16 wins by the point buying, so without point buying i would have been 11-11, and with point buying i was 16-6. i'd say it's variance. point buying needs to save our butts on approximately 20% of our winners to break even. if it saves us on more than 20% it brings us a profit

[jolmscheid]

Thanks for the numbers impper....so I am wondering if we can somehow come to a consensus here on the times...I mean impper has killed it by betting at noon, I have profited by betting at 3:00, and Chili has profited by betting at 6:00....so does it really matter when we make the bets as long as we stay away from the -105, -106, -107 lines since those could go against us easier than a -108+ game???

Also, if we stick to -108+ games early in the day, isn't it a better chance that the line will move with us later in the day since Pinny is leaning towards that side??

I mean, it would just be nice to know that it is OK to bet whatever time fits for us and still know that we will MATHEMATICALLY be profitable

[jolmscheid]

Oh and impper...I have been tracking the ML dogs as well and they have been profiting...but not nearly enough plays to know for sure....what about the ML favs?? You doing any of those?

[chilidog]

jolm, which book are you using to buy the 3 points for -170?

[impper]

theoretically ML favs should be good as well but yeah we simply need more data before jumping on it. to be honest it doesnt seem like a great idea simply because we're not pushing against the juice at all, we're just betting that the picks we're making are right very more often than not, since we're getting the edge. I'd like to see some more numbers before saying anything for sure

[impper]

Thanks for the numbers impper....so I am wondering if we can somehow come to a consensus here on the times...I mean impper has killed it by betting at noon, I have profited by betting at 3:00, and Chili has profited by betting at 6:00....so does it really matter when we make the bets as long as we stay away from the -105, -106, -107 lines since those could go against us easier than a -108+ game???

Also, if we stick to -108+ games early in the day, isn't it a better chance that the line will move with us later in the day since Pinny is leaning towards that side??

I mean, it would just be nice to know that it is OK to bet whatever time fits for us and still know that we will MATHEMATICALLY be profitable

well we know for sure that the 6 pm games have worked for cheme. only time will tell if the 12 pm and/or 3 pm plays will bear out, though i can't think of any GOOD reasons why it wouldn't, as we are still getting an edge, and as long as the lines are moving our way those bets are long-run winners, and if the line is staying stable and we're getting an edge from the points, we know those are long-run winners as well

[jolmscheid]

That's exactly what I'm saying impper...and I think that if we stick to the -108+ Pinny leans or if our book is off by .5 point in our favor, then we SHOULD be matching or beating the closer most of the time....what is a good % of bets to shoot for in terms of matching / beating the closer??

Btw, I use RebateWager and BetJam to buy 3 points for -170

Chili where you at bro?

[chilidog]

Primarily with 2 locals, but I also have accounts at betus/sportsbook.com. Do you run the numbers separately with both rebatewager and betjam, or which book do you primarily run them in the calculator?

[jolmscheid]

Most of the time RebateWager and BetJam are exactly the same....I notice that RebateWager is off by .5 point more often than BetJam is to Pinny's line....

Which brings up another point...I see that earlier in the day, there are more line discrepancies between RebateWager / BetJam and Pinny...so lots of time we are getting a free .5 point....ain't that good??

I guess I am still confused as to why it is bad to take the free point...I get it that the book is anticipating what Pinny will do, but what if it doesn't? Then we get a free half point...

Chili and impper...I really am looking up to you guys and really take your thoughts to heart so, would YOU GUYS personally ONLY take Pinny Leans of -108+ and that's it???? No -105, -106, -107 lines...no line discrpancies, etc???

[jolmscheid]

I also get that varying our wagers should help long term, it is just hard when some nights we SHOULD have been profitable but we aren't because our bigger bets go down...and it's also weird that last night I go 8-2 in CBB but 4-4 in NBA....Should there be differences like that?

[impper]

I also get that varying our wagers should help long term, it is just hard when some nights we SHOULD have been profitable but we aren't because our bigger bets go down...and it's also weird that last night I go 8-2 in CBB but 4-4 in NBA....Should there be differences like that?

but on the other hand there will be nights you go 8-6 (far below our required win % of 62) and still be profitable, because your big wagers won and your small wagers lost. it's a double edged sword

the differences between CBB and NBA are natural and are explained by variance

[impper]

Most of the time RebateWager and BetJam are exactly the same....I notice that RebateWager is off by .5 point more often than BetJam is to Pinny's line....

Which brings up another point...I see that earlier in the day, there are more line discrepancies between RebateWager / BetJam and Pinny...so lots of time we are getting a free .5 point....ain't that good??

I guess I am still confused as to why it is bad to take the free point...I get it that the book is anticipating what Pinny will do, but what if it doesn't? Then we get a free half point...

Chili and impper...I really am looking up to you guys and really take your thoughts to heart so, would YOU GUYS personally ONLY take Pinny Leans of -108+ and that's it???? No -105, -106, -107 lines...no line discrpancies, etc???

it's GOOD to take the free point if your book is making a mistake by giving it. For example, pinny is -5 2.000 and +5 1.909 and your book is giving +5.5, then the free point is wonderful. However, if pinny is -5 1.909 and +5 2.000 and your book is giving +5.5, then it's not as great. See what I mean?

I like pinny leans of -108, and i really like line discrepancies. They have not won as often as maybe we like recently, but I think they are winning wagers in the long run

[chilidog]

I guess that when there's a discrepancy between the spread between your book and pinny, your book is fully anticipating pinny to do the same. Now, if pinny doesn't do the same, then yah, you might have a free point on your side. But let's say that pinny does move the same way as what your book is anticipating. Now that bet might not be a bet anymore.

The whole thing is that we simply don't know. If it's working for you, then keep doing it that way. I know that cheme played games where his book had a point difference from pinny, and he did rather good.

[jolmscheid]

So imp...what you are saying is if our book is .5 point off of Pinny's but it is towards the side that Pinny is not favoring, then it is not a good bet?

Example: Pinny has -10 at -109 / +10 at -101 and our book is giving -10.5 at -110 / +10.5 -110......so it would be BAD to take the +10.5 and buy the points here since the odds at Pinny is leaning the other way??

[jolmscheid]

Yea I rarely get a point difference tho...

[impper]

So imp...what you are saying is if our book is .5 point off of Pinny's but it is towards the side that Pinny is not favoring, then it is not a good bet?

Example: Pinny has -10 at -109 / +10 at -101 and our book is giving -10.5 at -110 / +10.5 -110......so it would be BAD to take the +10.5 and buy the points here since the odds at Pinny is leaning the other way??

yes basically, because their line is just about squared up with pinnys and there won't be much of an edge, if there is one at all

[jolmscheid]

Got it thanks impper....so if I do have a line discrpancy I have to make sure that my book is offering a .5 Point towards the side that Pinny is leaning towards...gotcha

Also, impper are you still using the 1+ (1.41 x Edge) formula?? I have been using it...Chili are you still betting whatever edge you get??

[chilidog]

Yup, I've betting the edge percentage related to my bankroll for that sport. so that as I win and the bankroll increases, then my bets increase. And they decrease when I'm losing (like I am now, grrrr)

[jolmscheid]

You guys are not gonna ******* believe this!!! I just logged on to my BetJam account to place my wager and they don't let me buy 3 points for -170 anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

[impper]

ah man that really sucks ass. time for chili to hook us up with the local

[impper]

Also, impper are you still using the 1+ (1.41 x Edge) formula?? I have been using it...Chili are you still betting whatever edge you get??

yep, i've been using it

[jolmscheid]

This is BULL! I am on the phone now but this sucks...I need an effing local....


impper and Chili you guys have BetUs and sportsbook.com?? I'd like to do those but I just don't know if I will get paid....

Gosh this sucks

[chilidog]

You guys are not gonna ******* believe this!!! I just logged on to my BetJam account to place my wager and they don't let me buy 3 points for -170 anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

I know it sucks, but take it as a good sign that you've been kicking ass

[impper]

i have betus but they've been doing some fishy stuff with my NBA lines. i havent tried any major withdraws from them so we've yet to see how it will go.

and at least you still have rebatewager. maybe they won't cut you off?

[jolmscheid]

God dang guys...serisously...this is the only way I know how to make it betting is by getting edges....impper you only have BetUS??

[jolmscheid]

And Chili...have you been Paid everytime by Sportsbook.com and BetUS? Even when they know your 3-Point buying????