Cheme82's CBB plays for November

chilidog · 12-02-10, 04:50 PM

I've never had issues being paid, but I haven't really been doing this system with those; just with my locals.

jolmscheid · 12-02-10, 04:54 PM

That's gonna be the problem....I need a local cuz if I do this RebateWager they will prolly do the same thing!!!! Ugh;.....I can't really do this buying only 2 points....

This absolutely sucks! I seriously can't believe it.......

chilidog · 12-02-10, 04:56 PM

You could track how well it does with just buying the 2 points, or no points at all; you might be pleasantly surprised.

jolmscheid · 12-02-10, 04:59 PM

Gosh dang Chili......I am just depressed now!!!! The thing is the books don't offer the 3 points for a reason and I think we found it....so I don't think the 2 points will help as we are really getting the edge by buying the 3 points!! And MATHEMATICALLY I don't think just playing them without buying the points will profit since the calculator says so!!!!!

I'll bet that online books will not allow this and will eventually stop it just as BetJam did to me...and they are an A+ book!!!!! And I only was wagering an average of $25 a game and they still shut it down quickly!!!!

impper · 12-02-10, 05:23 PM

otoh jolm if pinny is giving -110 on a team then you're only paying 2% juice to your book with the same line, if your line is a half point better you should have a 1% or so edge, and if its a whole point better you have a 4-5% edge. so all hope is not lost if we cant always get paid buying points

jolmscheid · 12-02-10, 05:26 PM

Seriously impper this stinks!!!!! But you ONLY have BetUS?? Aren't they a D rated book?? I can't find any legit books that will do it now......I thought BetJam would be great since they are an A+ book and now they cut me off.....and I bet it will only be a matter of time before RebateWager does the same...this absolutely stinks...and I haven't heard of ANYONE say they know of a local in MN...

impper · 12-02-10, 05:27 PM

yeah i only have betus for now. i was planning on depositing at betjam but now i probably won't.

jolmscheid · 12-02-10, 05:28 PM

So Chili and impper.....moving forward, how would YOU GUYS suggest I start tracking other options...do Pinny leans of -110+? Do Pinny leans of -108+? Maybe take the best edge of the day and play it for 5% each play? Maybe do the best edge of the day and do a labby??

Serious, without this I can't profit...I can't cap games or anything...

Maybe I can find an angle where I may not get that many plays in a given week / month but they hit at a high rate and I could wait for those plays??

Your guys' help is so much appreciated...god I am pissed

impper · 12-02-10, 05:30 PM

how about we just find games where we have an edge with point buying and bet them straight up? with point buying, 20% of our wins have to win because of the 3 points or we're losing money because of it. just do what you normally do, but track your plays at -110 as well! i've been thinking of making -110 plays myself just based on where we get the edges...

and for now you've still got rebatewager. no time to panic just yet

jolmscheid · 12-02-10, 05:42 PM

I know impper I know....but I just know that if BetJam has already kicked it off for me and I was only making $25 bets...plus they were an A+ book...I guess I just have to track the plays straight up....

But honestly impper deep down, do you really think it is profitable to bet them straight up?? Maybe would have to do a labby or something with them because the edge we get is really from the point buying...I really don't know what to do now bro

chilidog · 12-02-10, 05:45 PM

I started tracking what would happen if I didn't buy points on November 17th up until yesterday. During that time, there were:

190 wins
119 losses
61.5% win percentage
+24.6 units by betting the edge percentage as your unit
+65.1 units by flatbetting 1 unit each (130.2 units if flatbetting 2 units each)

The units are based on -105 lines. You'd be up +59.1 units by flatbetting 1 unit at -110 lines.

So, even though the sample size is small (309 games), it is profitable so far.

impper · 12-02-10, 05:46 PM

well i know that the numbers don't necessarily bear out in a pure sense, but there could be a lot going on with pinny favorites that favor us enough to be profitable. i'm not sure and it's something that would need to be tracked to provide a definite answer.

and have you considered that betjam is an A+ book because they're smart enough to cut people off from playing a profitable strategy? i'm sure betus and rebatewager and sportsbook.com and brobury and whoever else allows point buying takes in millions and millions of dollars worth of action every day. how many people are on top of this strategy and bet enough to make a big enough dent that they'd take notice? well we just don't know...

jolmscheid · 12-02-10, 06:03 PM

That's true impper...I guess I will just have to stick with RebateWager for now....If I have to then I will go to BetUS but I don't like their SBR rating of a D!

And I will start to track the edge games that I get without buying points in case that is the only way I will be able to do it in the future...

Thanks for the help Chili and Impper...I really appreciate it!

impper are you placing ALL your value bets at BetUS??? I mean, if you have been doing good there and they haven't said anything then that's a good sign...

impper · 12-02-10, 06:19 PM

yes i have been. i've been placing other bets as well so hopefully i just look like a guy who loves action and who buys points to feel safe

jolmscheid · 12-02-10, 06:24 PM

Good point impper....maybe if I just place regular bets at BetJam they will see that I don't know what I am doing and let me buy points again......

But serisously, I guess I can only do these plays straight up at BetJam....any other EDGE systems you guys know about for other sports?? Cuz once BBall is over then what do I do?? Lol

chilidog · 12-02-10, 06:28 PM

No idea, jolm. I think cheme was using the calculator for MLB as well, but I'm not entirely positive.

jolmscheid · 12-02-10, 06:34 PM

Yea...I just need something year-round I can stick to that I know will be a good decision...there are cappers to follow but I have no idea who is legit and truthful ya know?? That's why I really hope I can continue to do this with RebateWager and hopefully doing these plays WITHOUT buying points will be profitable too as a backup plan!

chilidog · 12-02-10, 06:43 PM

I have no idea why it's worked over the past 300 games without buying points at all (but inputting the data into the calculator as if you were going to buy the 3 points). Hopefully it'll continue, because that opens up a whole new world of places to make the bets, with no worries whatsoever.

impper · 12-02-10, 06:49 PM

by the way, i have to run now and don't ahve time to lay out the math, but running 62% over 300 games without point buying is EXTREMELY unlikely unless we are getting some kind of very nice edge. it'll be interesting to see how the plays continue to go

chilidog · 12-03-10, 01:24 AM

Holy crap! These are the games that I did a little bit before noon, like around 11:45-11:50am CST, choosing only games were the pinny line was -108 or if my book had a different spread. They went 7-0-1. Incredible. I did find it interesting, however, that doing it this way for the rest of the day was a loss. Meaning, I also tracked the results if I had chosen the same games at 2pm, 3pm, 4pm, and 5pm, using the same -108+ criteria, and those were all losers.

Rider -2.5 -165 1.96% - WIN
St. Peter's +8 -165 1.13% - WIN
Tennessee Chat +9.5 -165 1.27% - WIN
Georgia Southern +13 -165 3.98% - PUSH
Murray State -1 -165 2.03% - WIN
Valparaiso -1.5 -165 2.63% - WIN
Northern Illinois +12.5 -165 2.25% - WIN
Air Force -3 -165 2.04% - WIN

I then tracked as I would've normally bet, by calculating every single game on the board at 5pm, those went 10-4-2. Definitely way better results doing them a bit before noon. But it seems like the later I waited to run the games, only choosing games with -108+, the worse the results did, with the absolute worst coming like 1-2 hours before gametime.

And now, for the fun part. I also tracked which method of choosing your unit size brought in the most money. For the 12pm games that I chose, just betting the edge percentage as a percentage of my bankroll for that sport, it brought in +13.3 units. But wow, impper, using your formula, it brought in +23.9 units!! And just flatbetting 2 units a play brought in +14 units.

The 5pm games (where I just calculated every game on the board) brought in +9.9 units if betting by the edge percentage, +18.2 units if using impper's formula, and +6.8 units if flatbetting 2 units.

And now for the shitty part. Had I bet the games the same way that I did last week (when I did awesome) and this week (which I've done shitty), tonight was another losing night. I'm glad that I didn't bet, and just decided to track. I hadn't been buying the 3 points, because of last week, and with me thinking that I didn't need them. But going over my numbers for this week, I would've had some winning days by buying the 3 points, so ... lesson learned!

Now, here is something that I was thinking about. What do you guys think about making the plays and bets twice a day? Doing it around noon or before and only playing -108+ games (or games where you have a different spread), as well as doing them at 5pm, and running the numbers on every game on the board? I know that a larger bankroll would be needed to do this. What do ya'll think?

And lastly, immper, have you ever done the numbers earlier than noon? Like, maybe 9am, 10am, or 11am? I know that the opening lines usually start out pretty even for CBB, so it wouldn't help much by going by the openers, but maybe waiting a few hours after openers come out?

fennigan · 12-03-10, 02:12 AM

I've been getting similiar results as you latley. I like the idea of doing the -108+ games around noon but what did you mean when you said playing games with a different spread?

pokerwhiz90 · 12-03-10, 02:14 AM

Hey Chilidog, those results are great, 100%!!! Can you run these over for tomorrow's games at noon as well with the edge%! Thanks!

pokerwhiz90 · 12-03-10, 06:15 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

Holy crap! These are the games that I did a little bit before noon, like around 11:45-11:50am CST, choosing only games were the pinny line was -108 or if my book had a different spread. They went 7-0-1. Incredible. I did find it interesting, however, that doing it this way for the rest of the day was a loss. Meaning, I also tracked the results if I had chosen the same games at 2pm, 3pm, 4pm, and 5pm, using the same -108+ criteria, and those were all losers.

Rider -2.5 -165 1.96% - WIN
St. Peter's +8 -165 1.13% - WIN
Tennessee Chat +9.5 -165 1.27% - WIN
Georgia Southern +13 -165 3.98% - PUSH
Murray State -1 -165 2.03% - WIN
Valparaiso -1.5 -165 2.63% - WIN
Northern Illinois +12.5 -165 2.25% - WIN
Air Force -3 -165 2.04% - WIN

I then tracked as I would've normally bet, by calculating every single game on the board at 5pm, those went 10-4-2. Definitely way better results doing them a bit before noon. But it seems like the later I waited to run the games, only choosing games with -108+, the worse the results did, with the absolute worst coming like 1-2 hours before gametime.

And now, for the fun part. I also tracked which method of choosing your unit size brought in the most money. For the 12pm games that I chose, just betting the edge percentage as a percentage of my bankroll for that sport, it brought in +13.3 units. But wow, impper, using your formula, it brought in +23.9 units!! And just flatbetting 2 units a play brought in +14 units.

The 5pm games (where I just calculated every game on the board) brought in +9.9 units if betting by the edge percentage, +18.2 units if using impper's formula, and +6.8 units if flatbetting 2 units.

And now for the shitty part. Had I bet the games the same way that I did last week (when I did awesome) and this week (which I've done shitty), tonight was another losing night. I'm glad that I didn't bet, and just decided to track. I hadn't been buying the 3 points, because of last week, and with me thinking that I didn't need them. But going over my numbers for this week, I would've had some winning days by buying the 3 points, so ... lesson learned!

Now, here is something that I was thinking about. What do you guys think about making the plays and bets twice a day? Doing it around noon or before and only playing -108+ games (or games where you have a different spread), as well as doing them at 5pm, and running the numbers on every game on the board? I know that a larger bankroll would be needed to do this. What do ya'll think?

And lastly, immper, have you ever done the numbers earlier than noon? Like, maybe 9am, 10am, or 11am? I know that the opening lines usually start out pretty even for CBB, so it wouldn't help much by going by the openers, but maybe waiting a few hours after openers come out?

Hey can you post up tonights plays just like this! Thanks a bunch chili! I think if you can add the edge%, than we can use imppers unit calculation, than it will be a huge success!

chilidog · 12-03-10, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by fennigan

I've been getting similiar results as you latley. I like the idea of doing the -108+ games around noon but what did you mean when you said playing games with a different spread?

What I mean by a different spread is if pinny is giving one spread, like +5/-5, and my book is giving it at +5.5/-5.5.

Originally posted by pokerwhiz90

Hey Chilidog, those results are great, 100%!!! Can you run these over for tomorrow's games at noon as well with the edge%! Thanks!

I always post my edge percentage, but my edge percentage will be greater than others, because I get 3 points for -165.

impper · 12-03-10, 10:04 AM

I went 10-2-2 last night on spread for NCAA. 0-2-0 for NBA. The moneyline strategy did not pay off; wagering .5 units per play on the dogs i went 2-8 for -2 units. I had 4 dogs come within a few points of winning and had a single one of those won I'd have swung to a profit. Jury's still out on MLs, I'd say, but for now I'm going to go back to tracking it.

impper · 12-03-10, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

And lastly, immper, have you ever done the numbers earlier than noon? Like, maybe 9am, 10am, or 11am? I know that the opening lines usually start out pretty even for CBB, so it wouldn't help much by going by the openers, but maybe waiting a few hours after openers come out?

This whole post is great chili and there's a lot here to mull over! The games I picked yesterday were around 11 AM and I went 10-2-2 on NCAA, so not too bad I'd say. I usually find the best opportunities some time between 11 am and noon, as that is when Pinny's numbers seem to have changed and betus' have not.

Now I had only a mild profit thanks to NBA Thursday, but I can live with that.

chilidog · 12-03-10, 10:08 AM

Yah, I saw that the +1200 ML dog lost by 1 point.

impper · 12-03-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

Yah, I saw that the +1200 ML dog lost by 1 point.

funnily enough that line kept getting bigger as the day drew on. UCLA started out as a 16 point dog and eventually moved up to 17.5, even 18 at times

chilidog · 12-03-10, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by impper

funnily enough that line kept getting bigger as the day drew on. UCLA started out as a 16 point dog and eventually moved up to 17.5, even 18 at times

So what do you think about betting the games twice a day? I know that you would be doubling up on some, and betting the opposite on others, and I don't have any data other than yesterday to back this up, so it's only speculation at this point.

impper · 12-03-10, 10:27 AM

I think that might be a fair strategy to try. Any game where the points save us is also a game that would win by betting the other side. Usually if the line moves in our favor, it's also a winning bet by going the other way as well. Yesterday I had East Tennessee +9, and Murray State -1, and they both won because I calculated the numbers later and Murray State had an edge. Whether it's "optimal" though it's hard to say . . . I'd say this makes our chances of breaking even go higher unless we're doubling all of our plays, but there's also a chance it leads to a monster day. On my biggest day where I won 35+ units, I made my bets once the day before at 6 or 7 AM and also about an hour before gametime.

Man, last night really sucked for me. I was up really big as the first wave of NCAA games finished up, and I woke up today with the golden state loss and cleveland's loss finally being calculated in my book. Argh!

chilidog · 12-03-10, 10:32 AM

Yah, those messed up nba lines that betus is dealing you sucked. I didn't have an nba play when I ran the numbers at noon, but when i ran them again at 5pm, then cleveland was the play, but the edge percentage on it was pretty small, so it wasn't a harsh loss.

And yah, I'm talking about doubling up on plays that you also bet at noon when you run the numbers again before gametime. It would be as if you never ran the numbers at noon.

impper · 12-03-10, 10:33 AM

I should run the numbers about what percentage of two-way bets need to win to be profitable compared to only betting one side

Yah, those messed up nba lines that betus is dealing you sucked. I didn't have an nba play when I ran the numbers at noon, but when i ran them again at 5pm, then cleveland was the play, but the edge percentage on it was pretty small, so it wasn't a harsh loss.

It's okay, I'd take those lines again every time. Even around 6 PM pinnacle was heavily favoring Golden State at -2.5.

chilidog · 12-03-10, 10:43 AM

Heh, now to even further complicate things, the weekend is upon us. Since the games start so early, I wonder which method is best ... doing the numbers close to gametime, or just running the numbers for the entire day at once, just sticking with -108+ games. Or even doing them the night before?

impper · 12-03-10, 10:48 AM

I wouldn't do the weekend games the night before since sharp money is coming in and it's just impossible to predict where they'll go unless we're capping these games ourselves. Keep in mind I got MURDERED last weekend though

chilidog · 12-03-10, 10:52 AM

Well, for the weekend of 11/20-11/21, I went 20-8 and 20-11, respectively. Last weekend, 11/27-11/28, I went 19-15 and 12-12, respectively. Both weekends were profitable, and they were done by doing the games before gametime, not doing them all at one time. I'm not going to have time to do them the same way this weekend, though, so who knows.