Originally posted by chilidog
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woooohoooo! clippers freakin barely covered! damn, what a comeback! I picked up +8.2 units today
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cheme keep posting up these plays around noon! This is gonna top all threads and soon enough, the books are going to play off this thread!Comment -
Went 5-0 on College but only 3-3 on NBA for a 4.8 unit gain. Clippers saved me. Overall though I like the Impper formula, just think it was a weird day for NBA can't believe the Spurs won by so much.Comment -
Originally posted by fennigan
Yah, NBA can be weird sometimes. The clippers game was fun to watch, though. Was still a winning weekend, though. What time did you run the CBB numbers?Comment -
I ran them at noon CST. I try that again today.Comment -
yah i like running them around noon as well, i just had to leave early yesterday so i had to do them like an hour earlierComment -
Hey guys. I had a bad day on Saturday. I wasn't going to be around so I VERY STUPIDLY ran the games the night before (despite saying on thursday or friday that that's a bad idea) and got a monster loss. I went something like 7-13 for -16 units. But Sunday I had a monster gain, going 15-11, hitting ALL of my big unit games, and even hitting 2 parlays, for a unit gain of +30. I would have had +40 units if the Knicks/Raps game had scored just 2 more points too
So a profitable weekend, but I would have been up HUGE if I hadn't made a bonehead mistake Friday night/Saturday morning. I'm about to run my plays for today
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Oh well, ya win some, ya lose em. Just don't run the games the night before anymoreOriginally posted by impperHey guys. I had a bad day on Saturday. I wasn't going to be around so I VERY STUPIDLY ran the games the night before (despite saying on thursday or friday that that's a bad idea) and got a monster loss. I went something like 7-13 for -16 units. But Sunday I had a monster gain, going 15-11, hitting ALL of my big unit games, and even hitting 2 parlays, for a unit gain of +30. I would have had +40 units if the Knicks/Raps game had scored just 2 more points too So a profitable weekend, but I would have been up HUGE if I hadn't made a bonehead mistake Friday night/Saturday morning. I'm about to run my plays for today You had 26 bets yesterday? Wow! There were somewhere around 30 games on the board total. (for cbb/nba) When I ran the numbers around 11-11:30, I only had 5 plays total. That was awesome for yah!
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I ran the numbers throughout the day, taking my winnings to make bets that presented themselves later. I made big money on Montana (which was a good play at 11 am and around 7 pm, so I played it twice; they won in a blowout as 11.5 point dogs!) and USC, which became a good play much later in the day. I also ran some parlays on the side with my NBA totals, which I was very confident about yesterday. The lines were just bizarre...Comment -
hey impper, how have you been doing in nba by running the numbers around 11-noon ? I've been doing really good with cbb running them at that time, and doing nba about an hour before gametime.Comment -
I'm not doing as well as in CBB, but I'm positive on the year. It seems like I either have a very good day or below-average days, either breaking even or getting a small loss. I did very well on the NBA yesterday, playing BOS, NYK, CLE, GSW and OKC (bet both sides here), PHX moneyline, LAC, and MEM. Only one loss on the day with Cleveland, and even there despite not wanting to bet on them they only missed the spread by 2 points after point-buying... OKC and GSW hit on both sides for me.Comment -
I had a huge weekend!
Many thanks to Sweetjones55, RayzHELL, MrGunther12, and Cheezhead62!!
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Awesome day thenOriginally posted by impper It looks like very little CBB action. For some reason, I've been successful by putting in -170 as the 3pt price in the calculator, instead of the -165 that I'm paying. It does cut down on the plays, but they're hitting at such a high rate. Maybe by doing this, I'm only betting on the games that have a higher chance of hitting. Who knows, but it's been working
I know how it is not wanting to bet on a team. I've had to bet the clippers twice this weekend, and I cringed each time, but whaddya know - the bets won.Comment -
Yeah. What matters more is a game's "true" edge, that is what are the real chances that it will win or lose when it is actually played? Of course, by paying a lower price you can tolerate a good deal more losses, but that doesn't change the outcomes of the games.Comment -
Do any of the NBA underdogs look good to you today? Minnesota is being favored at +7 but I think there's a chance they win outrightComment -
I haven't run numbers yet; I'll get to it in just a secComment -
only plays that i have for nba are indiana and utah, which are both favorites. but i don't usually play the nba games at noon - i usually just run the cbb games at noonComment -
Only play I have for now is:
CBB
Houston -3 0.82%Comment -
The Clippers line should move to -4.5 pretty soon. I could be wrong but the line seems low and pinny is giving them -108 nowComment -
I agree, especially with the large amount of public laying on the clippers.Comment -
If the public keeps putting money on Clippers and the line doesn't move or reverses, maybe we should play the kings? Nice game to test RLM theory, if it ends up behaving like that
e: Public's all over the Heat too and the line is very suspiciously low. Wonder what's going on there. 73% on Heat and Pinny is giving them -107 lolComment -
I have no clue what I'm going to be doing with NBA until tonight, anything goes until then. I know that when I ran the numbers around 11am, my book did have the kings as the well.
And yah, something is wrong with the miami game. Exactly what you said, 73% on miami and a -107 pinny line? That just doesn't look right to me at all. I would expect to see at least -110 or higher, or even pinny giving a +100 line for miami, with how large the public is betting on the heat.Comment -
Looks like RLM to me. I'm on the bucks with real money, just to test.
now watch em get blown out by 27
e: All of the other books have heat at -5 as well. Looks like the books are pounding the bucks, maybe? Hrm...Comment -
Now pinny has miami at -106, with still 73% on miami. To me, the game has trap written all over it. If you plug in -165 into the calculator, it says that milwaukee has a small 0.98% edge.Comment -
If pinny's giving them better odds as more people are putting money on it, it means they're trying to draw all the cash they can on the heat. I'm going with pinny this time
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heh, back to -107/-103 now. bodog and matchbook are already giving -5.5 on the heat. trap, trap, trap.Comment -
Hey impper and Chili...I only had 4 plays yesterday going 4-0, so good day....I will run the numbers in a sec...you guys tracking how they are doing without buying points and the ML still?
Will be back in a couple..Comment -
ML was profitable on Sunday for me and was not profitable on saturday. However I got murdered on Saturday, so that's to be expected. In general, ML only gives us a positive expectation using the calculator if the line moves in our favor. However, moving that many points is supposed to make the calculator very inaccurate so it's probably not the best source of intel as far as that's concernedComment -
I'm not tracking anymore without buying the points. I think in the longrun, the math will prevail, so I'm buying points. I'm not tracking the ML plays either.Comment -
Gotcha guys...I am gonna keep tracking them as I need a backup plan since I do not have a local and only RebateWager now....still pissed as hell at BetJam....
Anyways tonight I have:
Houston (CBB) -3
Jazz -6.5Comment -
if you don't wanna go with betus, at least get with sportsbook.com. they pay out within a few days by wire transfer. it usually takes me about 2-3 business days after i request a payout, and the money is in my bank account. betus usually takes a little longer (sometimes like a week after i've made the request), but i've still always gotten paid.Comment -
That's good to know Chili....it's just that you have not been using the point-buying with them, so I am afraid that if they see all I do is buy points, then they won't pay...Comment -
Hey impper, I know you are using BetUS with this system...have you tried to get a payout yet??Comment -
Thanks for the help Chili and impper....Comment -
No but I'm thinking of withdrawing $1,000 pretty soon. I'll tell you how that goes if I doComment
