Yah, I know that it's entirely psychological, and I know the games aren't correlated, I just feel that if I have a bad day, at least I can say "well, there's always tomorrow", if I put 50% of the bankroll into play each day. I've been taking it easier with my unit sizes, because I'm on credit with my locals, and I hate having to pay them, heh. If I posted up to a book and were doing this, it wouldn't be so bad, as I would already be playing with 'lost money'.
-
Comment -
My thinking behind this is that impper does his numbers around 11am, I do mine around noon, and jolm usually does his somewhere around 1pm, and then I run the night games around 5pm. We're all doing very well doing them at each time slot, so my theory is that it doesn't matter when you do it, as long as the edge is there.Comment -
hey chilidog, how this sytem do without buying three points? i know when cheme82 was doing this that the games hit about sixty percent even without buying pointsComment -
I don't have stats on that - it's too up and down with CBB. With NBA, they're profitable, just not as profitable as buying the points.Comment -
NBA
Cleveland +10.5 5.6u
Houston -4 3.7u
Golden State +11.5 3.8uComment -
good luck on the plays guysComment -
chili were these your only three nba plays fior the day?Comment -
Nah, I had some that I posted earlier in the day, and they bit me in the ass. I had a losing day today. It's my own fault though. What has been working for me was to only run the CBB games at noon, and only run the NBA games at 5pm. Instead, I ran both CBB/NBA at noon, and yah, I took a loss because of that.Comment -
Had I played like I always do, I would've made +7.4 units with one local, +5.4 units with the other, and now for the shocker, +19 units if I used the lines from the SBR book & pinny to do the calculations (but made the bets using my locals)!Comment -
10-6 on spreads today pending the Lakers. +8 units if they win, break-even if they lose. Lakers -9. They were blowing em out all game but let them come in ... such garbageComment -
The laker bet could go either way at this point. The last 2 minutes of an NBA game is all that seems to really matter.Comment -
I'm kind of fuming because I had two separate parlays -- Blazers -2.5 with the under, and GSW +9 with the under. Both bets looked good as they were under by about 20 points with 2-3 minutes to go and both of them lose as the teams start trading layups for fouls and scoring 4 points every 2.5 seconds. Good stuff
Comment -
Welp, Lakers lose. Crap!Comment -
I hear yah, NBA is frustrating as hell to watch when you have money on the games. I hate how the last 5 minutes takes like 30 minutes to run down, and they start fouling the other team like crazy, free throws left and right, and you never really know how your bet is going to play out.
I'm pissed off at myself for deviating from my standard system (by running the NBA calculations at noon, which I rarely do). I guess I figured that you and jolm were doing so well doing them, that I'd jump in and do it as well. I got my ass burned for doing that. Never again.Comment -
I went 5-2 today on NBA calculating my games early in the day. I guess Detroit lost for you and you didn't get on Charlotte?
e: I doubled up on some bets but I'm talking 5-2 on the games I picked a side for.Comment -
I lost on new jersey, cleveland and detroit, which were all plays at my book around noon.Comment -
Hrm alright. Yeah, this takes a lot of discipline...Comment -
Hey Fellas....sorry I've been out (not that you'd miss me) but had an idea to make my plays and will try this just for the heck of it and let you know how it goes. I am not on a book that allows point buying, so my thought was to find plays and tease them two together, buying 4 or 5 points. I know that the chances to win are reduced because you need two to win, however, I can get 5 points at -130 and 4 points at a rate of -110. I like the points, so I'm going with buying 5. My plays today are:
1. Towson +12 at -110 lean from pinny at 11:00 a.m. EST and Texas Tech -2 with the same lean
2. St. Mary's -16 at -110 and Fordham -1/2 at -114
3. Wright St. -2 at -109 and Bradley +33 at -109
4. Vandy +8 1/2 at -109 and Niagra +18 1/2 at -109
Well, we'll see....it's all I could figure to do in order to get the point edge.
Let me know what you think!
BigComment -
That actually may not be a bad idea Johnson, because FOR THE MOST PART, if we go 1-1 on odds at -170 we will lose $, so you teasing two teams together for 5 points at LESS odds may not be such a bad thing...what do you think Chili and impper??Comment -
Teasing is a pretty good idea; I'd be interested to see how it plays out.Comment -
Chili...yesterday I had 1 NBA bet on the Nets and they lost...
...so you have been doing NBA later in the day huh? Maybe I should just not do NBA games earlier in the day like you, IDK...but impper does them earlier in the day right?? Hmmm.....also yesterday I went 4-2 but lost money cuz Utah was a bigger bet that lost by 1 fricken point and San Diego pushed....
Comment -
Yah, I've been doing NBA at 5pm CST, and it's been working out really well. Had I stuck to that yesterday, I would've had a profitable day. Instead, I ran the NBA games at noon (when I normally run the CBB games), and it bit me in the ass hard. Impper runs his plays around 11am or so, and that's been working out for him for the most part (sometimes he has losing days because of it, though).Chili...yesterday I had 1 NBA bet on the Nets and they lost......so you have been doing NBA later in the day huh? Maybe I should just not do NBA games earlier in the day like you, IDK...but impper does them earlier in the day right?? Hmmm.....also yesterday I went 4-2 but lost money cuz Utah was a bigger bet that lost by 1 fricken point and San Diego pushed....
I think we have CBB nailed down pretty tight now. But cheme's way of doing NBA was to do them before gametime, and that's when he always posted his plays.Comment -
I ran teased plays through the calculator and it looks like it's finding edges. The question is, with so many games to play out there, how do you handle permutations of games? Do you just pair games together, do you tease 3 teams at a time, 4 or 5 teams maybe? If you tease only pairs, do you pair games multiple times? e.g. game 1, game 2, game 3, do you tease:
1 + 2
2 + 3
1 + 3
Or would you rather find 4 games, game 1, game 2, game 3, game 4,
1 + 2
3 + 4
Or how about like this?
1 + 2
1 + 3
1 + 4
2 + 3
2 + 4
3 + 4Comment -
Okay I ran some math and I don't think teasers will work. Assuming a 72% win rate per game on a 5 point teaser...
.72 * .72 = .52, or an implied 52% chance to win your teaser
At a price of -130 that's 130/230 = .565 implied odds, meaning you need to win 56.5% or more of your teasers to break even. It's a losing bet. I'd stay away from teasers... I'll run some more numbers, but in the meantime, any of you feel free to prove me wrong. I'm always looking for more angles...Comment -
Yup, I was thinking along the same lines with your first post. How would we go about pairing the games? You can't just stick with pairing higher percentage edges with each other, nor just low percentage numbers. You would have to go by intuition, or just random, and there's no math involved with that; you're just flipping a coin, and I'm not comfortable with doing that.Comment -
I'm keeping it as simple as possible and just using the leans to pair up games. -109 with -109 and -110 with -110 etc. Had I did this yesterday, using -109 as a minimum lean, teasing 5, there were 8 games to play at 1:45 pm est. Those games went 8-0, so there's 4 teaser hit. Without teasing, the games went 5-3. My plan is to play 2x thinking that if I used the same amount to bet straight(8 games) compared to 4 teased, I'm more likely to win more $. Hope this makes sense.Comment -
If we play 2 games at -170 for $50 each with our usual edge win rate of ~64%...
.13 Both lose -$100 = -$13
.46 Split -$20.6 = -$9.4
.41 Both win +$58.8 = +$24.1
= +$1.70 expected winnings
Teaser with edge win rate of 72%, bet $50 payout of -130:
.078 Both lose = -$3.9
.403 Either loses = -$20.15
.518 Both win = +$19.92
= -$4.13 Expected winnings
So a 5 point teaser with a generous edge is a bad bet in comparison to a 3 point buy with a modest edgeComment -
Hey Johnson, how is playing a lean that's also going against the public going for you?I'm keeping it as simple as possible and just using the leans to pair up games. -109 with -109 and -110 with -110 etc. Had I did this yesterday, using -109 as a minimum lean, teasing 5, there were 8 games to play at 1:45 pm est. Those games went 8-0, so there's 4 teaser hit. Without teasing, the games went 5-3. My plan is to play 2x thinking that if I used the same amount to bet straight(8 games) compared to 4 teased, I'm more likely to win more $. Hope this makes sense.Comment -
My issue really has to do with not being able to buy the 3 points at my book....so I figured i'd try this.Comment -
johnson, if you keep doing this make sure that the calculator is giving you greater than a 75% win probability on every individual game you play, as that's the only way the numbers seem to work out. On the other hand, the calculator is supposedly not reliable that far away from the center...
It would be good, if you're going to try this, to back-test buying 5 points on top of pinny edges and seeing the historical win rate. If it's better than 75% then 5-point teasers should be good. However, anything less than a 75% win rate and you are not getting any edge whatsoeverComment
