Cheme82's CBB plays for November

phillybadboy · 12-09-10, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by johnsonbig11

Well....5-2-1 with the games and 1-2-1 with the teasers. For the night I ended up down -.95 u. Could have been better, but it's a start. Pinny had Niagra at +18 1/2... my book was only at +18 and I didn't catch it. On to tomorrow night!

you can get 5 points -110 2 team teaser

phillybadboy · 12-09-10, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

I know it's only the 3rd quarter, but damn, who would've seen the clippers being in the lead! I had clippers +10.5 and sacramento -1.5 to finish out the night. I didn't like pulling the trigger on the clippers, but damn!

damn dude why didn't post your nba i would/ve tailed

chilidog · 12-09-10, 01:47 AM

6-2 tonight in the NBA, picking up +15.6 units. 3-3 in CBB, losing -4.2 units. Finished out the day up +11.4 units.

phillybadboy · 12-09-10, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

6-2 tonight in the NBA, picking up +15.6 units. 3-3 in CBB, losing -4.2 units. Finished out the day up +11.4 units.

congrats bro

clbonham2 · 12-09-10, 06:13 AM

got any parlay picks for tonight?

fennigan · 12-09-10, 11:30 AM

You did the NBA picks right before the games Chilli? I had to go out with my wife to Christmas shop. Need to get a better phone so I can bet 5:00 games if I am out.

chilidog · 12-09-10, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by fennigan

You did the NBA picks right before the games Chilli? I had to go out with my wife to Christmas shop. Need to get a better phone so I can bet 5:00 games if I am out.

Yup, I do the NBA games at 5pm CST.

impper · 12-09-10, 12:08 PM

Good stuff chili. I started yesterday out amazingly well, 11-3, but ended the day -5 units. So stupid!!!

chilidog · 12-09-10, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by impper

Good stuff chili. I started yesterday out amazingly well, 11-3, but ended the day -5 units. So stupid!!!

Did you play the lakers? That was such a good game to watch. I was also on utah (not a system play, just a play that I liked), and that game sucked for me.

impper · 12-09-10, 12:25 PM

I did play the lakers, and other than that game I hit everything in the NBA. It was college that killed me yesterday. I decided to enter a big bet on Memphis at the last moment, both points and moneyline, that would have swung my day to profitable but betus took the game down about 2 minutes before anyone else did. DOH!

impper · 12-09-10, 12:30 PM

Oops, forgot I was on Utah too lol. I'm already blocking big Miami wins out of my head! I hate those guys

chilidog · 12-09-10, 12:41 PM

So how have ML plays been working out for yah?

impper · 12-09-10, 12:45 PM

I've been staying away from them for the most part. Yesterday ML would've been very profitable since a lot of college dogs won outright, but it's too swingy right now and i want to get to a point where the ML plays will be a very insignificant part of my BR. For NBA I really like to play MLs when a team is on 4 games in 5 nights, I bet the other team on ML... it hits all the time, dog or fav... Suns were on 5 games in 7 nights yesterday and they ran out of gas in OT to an inferior team. The books handicap these games as if they're back-to-back, but the team is actually far more exhausted than just a normal b2b

chilidog · 12-09-10, 01:24 PM

Yah, I do like the idea of playing MLs, but I do want to build up my bankroll a lot higher before jumping in them.

jolmscheid · 12-09-10, 01:27 PM

Yea I think I am gonna track the ML's for at least 200-300 plays before I make a decision....and I think playing the dogs on the ML's of +150 or less would be smart...and parlaying favs of -250+ so that the big losses don't hurt as much

jolmscheid · 12-09-10, 01:31 PM

Hey impper...I know you said you know how to backtest, so if you could backtest these angles with PROOF I will give you 500 points...you can see I have that much! HA....I just want to see if there is something I can wager on at my BetJam account that I now can't buy 3 points at:

ALL Sports angles I want tracked for ALL sports the past 3 seasons

1) Playing ON teams that have lost 5+ games in a row and AGAINST teams that have won 5+ in a row ATS (Basketball and football) or SU (Hockey and baseball)

2) Playing on ALL Underdogs moneyline of +129 or less

3) Playing on ALL HOME Underdogs moneyline of +129 or less

4) Playing on ALL Underdogs moneyline of +129 or less where Pinnacle had -108+ odds on the underdog spread

5) Playing ON teams where the line has moved 2+ points in their favor

6) Playing AGAINST teams where the line has moved 2+ points in their favor

7) Fading ALL public bets of 80%+ on one side of a game

8) Fading ALL teams that are playing their 3rd or more consecutive AWAY game

9) Playing ALL Reverse Line Movement plays where 60%+ of the public is on one side and the spread moves 1+ points in the opposite direction (Basketball and football), or the Moneyline moves .10+ cents in the opposite direction (NHL and MLB)

MLB Angles

1) Playing UNDER in games where two Top 20 pitchers are playing

2) Playing ALL Underdogs of +150 or less (They can't be on a 3-game losing streak)

3) Playing ALL +1.5 Runlines of -120 or better odds

4) Playing UNDER on ALL Totals of 10.5+ runs

NHL Angles:

1) Playing the OVER on all games where the total is at 5 or less

2) Playing the UNDER on all games where the total is at 6 or more

3) Playing ALL +200 dogs on the +1.5 Puckline

4) Playing ALL HOME Dogs on the Moneyline

chilidog · 12-09-10, 01:31 PM

Sounds good to me.

I've compiled some very, very interesting data over the past few days. I know it's only a few days' worth of data, so that doesn't really say much. I don't really want to get into it now, because I don't have enough data for it to be definite, but from the look of things, it's looking VERY, VERY GOOD.

chilidog · 12-09-10, 01:32 PM

Haha, jolm, that's a ton of angles to backtest. Somebody would have to a really sweet database to pull that info from. Otherwise, it would take at least a week or two to compile it all by hand.

jolmscheid · 12-09-10, 01:38 PM

Yea I know...I just don't have the time to do it....plus I don't know how...HA

I just don't know of any other way, capper, PROVEN profitable system I can use at my BetJam account..

impper · 12-09-10, 01:45 PM

If you take the time to implement all of those variables into a database you need to be selling it and not posting it to the forums

If I get a lot of free time I'll see what I can do, I'll C/P those angles into my notes and look at what I can do, Jolm...

linedrivr · 12-09-10, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Yea I know...I just don't have the time to do it....plus I don't know how...HA

I just don't know of any other way, capper, PROVEN profitable system I can use at my BetJam account..

why not cash out of Betjam and move that money to a book that will allow you to do this system properly. Leave $1 in there to keep it open in case you want to use them down the road for baseball etc. Just a suggestion.

jolmscheid · 12-09-10, 01:47 PM

Thanks impper that would be awesome....and linedrivr I guess just because they are an A+ book, if I could find a second income stream I would like to have that option....just have NO CLUE what system, capper, angles could be that second income stream...HA

impper · 12-09-10, 01:52 PM

the tricky things are the streak angles, since you'd have to run a season based on individual day-to-day trials instead of just a big clump of numbers that you could easily sort. i suppose there would be a way to apply a streak to every game and make a betting decision based on that.

also if anyone could tell me where i could get pinnacle's historical spreads/leans/juice that would help immensely

linedrivr · 12-09-10, 01:52 PM

And if you do move your cash to a new book, I don't recommend taking any sign on bonuses that require rollover since they could cut your point buying at anytime before your rollover is completed thus tying up your cash to them.

linedrivr · 12-09-10, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Thanks impper that would be awesome....and linedrivr I guess just because they are an A+ book, if I could find a second income stream I would like to have that option....just have NO CLUE what system, capper, angles could be that second income stream...HA

I have accounts at most of the A rated books and move my money around based on who I am using for a particular season. During baseball, for example, most of my money sits @ 5dimes and matchbook. I leave a few bucks in the other accounts to keep them open when I'm not using them.

jolmscheid · 12-09-10, 01:57 PM

Thanks impper....that would be awesome if you could run some of those angles...500 point bro....

And good point linedrivr.....

Any other income streams I could use at BetJam lemme know! HA HA....

pokerwhiz90 · 12-09-10, 03:49 PM

what are tonights plays?

chilidog · 12-09-10, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by pokerwhiz90

what are tonights plays?

I dunno, it's too early for me to run them, but I doubt that I'll be posting the plays.

jolmscheid · 12-09-10, 03:57 PM

Chili or impper....what do you think about playing all Home Dogs on the ML that are +140ish and under...I mean, the spread would be low enough usually on these games that would the spread really come into play for most of the games?? Idk...just thinkin' out loud.

chilidog · 12-09-10, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Chili or impper....what do you think about playing all Home Dogs on the ML that are +140ish and under...I mean, the spread would be low enough usually on these games that would the spread really come into play for most of the games?? Idk...just thinkin' out loud.

Are there stats to back this up? I don't know about you guys, but at least half of my bankroll goes into play almost daily with the system that we're doing now, so I don't really want to add more things to the mix that don't have some kind of an edge to them.

impper · 12-09-10, 04:05 PM

historically road dogs perform better ATS than home dogs. not 100% sure on the ML stats

jolmscheid · 12-09-10, 04:16 PM

Thanks imp and Chili....imp did you run your plays at 11 again today? I know Chili hasn't run his yet..

pokerwhiz90 · 12-09-10, 04:17 PM

okk thats cool - iwas using my sbr points on your plays!

impper · 12-09-10, 04:24 PM

Yeah I ran numbers at 11, got philly at +8.5, Portland at +5.5, and NJ +14

For college I only got Florida -11. Right now Butler is a play at +5

jolmscheid · 12-09-10, 04:34 PM

Sounds good Imp...gonna run mine now