Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[chilidog]

Wyoming +6 or Warriors +15

Which would be the better bet??

I've had Wyoming +6 all day long, but I haven't ran the NBA yet, so I dunno what I'll have. Give me about 30 more minutes, then I'll post what I'm going with.

Of course we know that for a teaser to win both games have to hit. At .725, the chance of both games to hit is .524, and all other outcomes are .476. Buying past 3 and 7 gives the games (according to the calculator, at least) somewhere in the realm of .745-.760. If we assume that on average the chance is .75, the chance for our teaser to hit is .563

Gotcha now. The whole reason why cheme did so well in nfl/cfb with the calculator is because he was able to buy 1/2 points so cheap, as well as do CPs. While I have reduced juice with my locals, I can't buy 1/2 points for the same price as I do in hoops, and I can't do CPs. Anyway, it worked so well for him because he was able to push past the 3 and 7, for a pretty cheap. So, if we can somehow replicate that, even by taking 6 point teasers, then that's a very good thing.

[impper]

I lost my ass yesterday on Boston and Colts.. ABout 1 grand to be exact.

I have 150 left and i need your wisdom Chili...

Will u tell me what you would do if you were me?

If I were you, I'd practice better BR management!

[impper]

Gotcha now. The whole reason why cheme did so well in nfl/cfb with the calculator is because he was able to buy 1/2 points so cheap, as well as do CPs. While I have reduced juice with my locals, I can't buy 1/2 points for the same price as I do in hoops, and I can't do CPs. Anyway, it worked so well for him because he was able to push past the 3 and 7, for a pretty cheap. So, if we can somehow replicate that, even by taking 6 point teasers, then that's a very good thing.

Yes. Betus KILLS you if you buy points in the nfl, but their 6 pt teaser rates are very reasonable. I have to imagine if you kill them they'll just stop allowing teasers, but who knows.

[jpot34]

I lost my ass yesterday on Boston and Colts.. ABout 1 grand to be exact.

I have 150 left and i need your wisdom Chili...

Will u tell me what you would do if you were me?

Reduce your bet size, and follow these guys to the T.

[impper]

Also there's another wrinkle in that Pinnacle still offers leans on the games, so it's possible (perhaps) that you could also get an edge by teasing past 7 and 10. This one is a lot more tenuous though, it might also be that you also need to get a better line than pinnacle is offering

[chilidog]

I lost my ass yesterday on Boston and Colts.. ABout 1 grand to be exact.

I have 150 left and i need your wisdom Chili...

Will u tell me what you would do if you were me?

Hmmm. Wait a little bit, and I'll post my NBA plays. I'm not guarantee that they'll win or anything, because we all having losing days. I put the unit amounts after the pick. Assuming you can buy the 3 points, play the picks, and cross your fingers. I don't know yet how many plays there will be. Set $5 as your unit amount, and play them 'to risk'. With 11 games on the board, there should be anywhere from 6-9 plays, with the average bet ranging from 2.5 - 3 units.

Personally, that's what I would do, but that's me. I'm comfortable with my level of risk, and mine might be different than yours. That being said, please don't blame me if we happen to have a losing night. It does happen - even though yesterday we had a 20+ unit day.

[impper]

Okay, and now this is going to sound silly, but there are also edges to be had by buying past 3, 7, and 10 with 8 point teaser. I imagine that any teaser combo where you can cross key numbers while keeping the teaser as low as possible is ideal. So a number like 2, 2.5, 7.5, 8, 10.5, etc. is ideal. Basically go for 3 and 7, but there is also an edge at 10.5. The key is to cross 3

[Gtownguy487]

I wont blame u, at this point im all ears... if im on 146.62 what should my unit size be? I got on tilt yesterday after losing a grand and put $300 on 1H Boston -3 and $300 Boston to win game -3, $300 on Colts $100 on Georgetown ML...and I also made a bet this morning on $250 Lakers -1.

[chilidog]

If I were you, I'd practice better BR management!

Heh, those were my thoughts exactly. There's no way I'd put $500 each on a game (with no mathematical edge backing up the play), unless my bankroll was quite large.

Yes. Betus KILLS you if you buy points in the nfl, but their 6 pt teaser rates are very reasonable. I have to imagine if you kill them they'll just stop allowing teasers, but who knows.

I haven't really heard of books not allowing teasers. I suppose that anything is possible, but parlays and teasers are pretty much known as sucker bets. Maybe we're just really lucky suckers?

Reduce your bet size, and follow these guys to the T.

At least on the part about reducing your bet size. It always makes me nervous when people just blindly tail me. That's why I quit posting my plays at one point, then another poster told me via PM that we're all adults here, and I'm not holding a gun to anybody's head, and we should all accept the possibility of a losing day. So there ya go, tail at your own risk. I had a 4 day losing streak last week, followed by a massive winning streak. I hope to continue that winning streak tonight, now that I've got the times locked down to do the math, as well as what lines/spreads to pay attention to.

Also there's another wrinkle in that Pinnacle still offers leans on the games, so it's possible (perhaps) that you could also get an edge by teasing past 7 and 10. This one is a lot more tenuous though, it might also be that you also need to get a better line than pinnacle is offering

The main issue that I have with playing teasers with this is that we don't know the best way to pair up the games. We both know that a 4% game will lose just as easily as a 2% game will. True, it doesn't happen as often, but it still happens. That's the part that concerns me.

[phillybadboy]

HEY chili and imp I only was on philly and butler last nite which both won...but how come you guys had way more plays? You still only doing the -108+ lobby leans?

what are lobby leans?

[impper]

Your unit size should be somewhere in the range of $1.5. Most plays using my formula end up being 2.5-3.5 units

[impper]

The main issue that I have with playing teasers with this is that we don't know the best way to pair up the games. We both know that a 4% game will lose just as easily as a 2% game will. True, it doesn't happen as often, but it still happens. That's the part that concerns me.

I'd say go with 2-team teasers and round robin the games. There shouldn't be more than 4-5 games using this method anyway.

[chilidog]

Okay, and now this is going to sound silly, but there are also edges to be had by buying past 3, 7, and 10 with 8 point teaser. I imagine that any teaser combo where you can cross key numbers while keeping the teaser as low as possible is ideal. So a number like 2, 2.5, 7.5, 8, 10.5, etc. is ideal. Basically go for 3 and 7, but there is also an edge at 10.5. The key is to cross 3

Of course, I completely agree on that, but I mentioned in my last post my thoughts on teasers. I don't know how to group them.

I wont blame u, at this point im all ears... if im on 146.62 what should my unit size be? I got on tilt yesterday after losing a grand and put $300 on 1H Boston -3 and $300 Boston to win game -3, $300 on Colts $100 on Georgetown ML...and I also made a bet this morning on $250 Lakers -1.

Set your unit size at $5, and play the picks 'to risk'. If I have a pick at 2.5 units, then you'll risk $12.50 to win $7.35, assuming you're buying 3 points for -170. Do not play the picks straight up, you have to buy the 3 points to be at the spreads posted.

I'm gonna run the numbers now, brb

[impper]

Also, according to the calculator this will NOT work in college football, as the games end on -3 so much less often (66% as much as in the nfl)

[chilidog]

Your unit size should be somewhere in the range of $1.5. Most plays using my formula end up being 2.5-3.5 units

Yah, I normally go with 0.5% of bankroll as my unit size, but by doing that with his bankroll, that'd be like 75 cents a unit, and most books have a $5 minimum bet, so that's why I suggested $5 as the unit size. It's up to him what he wants to do.

I'd say go with 2-team teasers and round robin the games. There shouldn't be more than 4-5 games using this method anyway.

Ahh, didn't think of round robins

[slimpickins]

this is what I just got in NBA
Spurs -5 1.0 edge = 2.41 units
Raptors +5 .5 edge = 1.71 units
Trail Blazers +8.5 .34 edge = 1.49 units
Warriors +12 .15 edge = 1.21 units

Is that the same as you Chili?

[Romanov]

I was hoping to see the pacers on your list for tonight. damn

[chilidog]

NBA
Washington +6 2.8u
Chicago +5 2.6u
San Antonio -5 4u
Utah -3 2.4u (don't buy points on this one)
Phoenix -2 3.9u
Golden State +12 2.8u

GL!

[Gtownguy487]

Is my Lakers bet pretty solid? I know theres no such thing as a Lock however wanted to get a few of your opinion since this thread is quite active

[impper]

Lakers at -1 have a nice edge. No telling how it'll play out though.

[Gtownguy487]

And your ncaab what were unit sizes on those?

[ghost xx]

Thanks Chili!

Maybe you can help me turn it around.

[slimpickins]

chili, I assume I am doing something wrong since I ran the NBA games about the same time as you?
our books lines shouldn't matter as I just plugged -170 in after moving 3 points?

[impper]

Your books line does matter since you enter -170 at the line you're getting at your book. e.g.:

if pinny has +9

your book has +9

you enter the -170 at +12

if pinny has +9

your book has +9.5

you enter the -170 at +12.5

[Gtownguy487]

Dec 10 07:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 802 Washington Wizards +6 buying 2½ points -160 for Game
14.00 USD 8.75 USD
Dec 10 08:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 812 Chicago Bulls +5 buying 2 points -150 for Game
13.00 USD 8.67 USD
Dec 10 08:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 816 San Antonio Spurs -5 buying 3 points -170 for Game
20.00 USD 11.76 USD
Dec 10 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 818 Utah Jazz -3 buying ½ points -120 for Game
12.00 USD 10.00 USD
Dec 10 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 820 Phoenix Suns -2 buying 3½ points -195 for Game
19.50 USD 10.00 USD
Dec 10 10:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 822 Golden State Warriors +12 buying 2 points -150 for Game
14.00 USD 9.33 USD
6 Straight(s) 92.50 USD 58.51 USD


Also do you feel comfortable still with ur ncaa picks and what are the units sizes?

[Romanov]

Booked Chili's except for the Jazz, I tacked on a little extra cash onto the others instead of the Jazz

Lets do this!

[slimpickins]

impper, I did do that but the lines at my book were all identical to pinny when I ran the numbers
a couple were different earlier in the day, but at this time they are all the same.
I just meant that they are all -110 / -110 and -170 if buying the 3 pts.

[slimpickins]

I used SBRodds for the live pinny lines.
Is that what you guys do or do you go to pinnacle's site for more accurate/up to date lines?

[chilidog]

Thanks Chili!

Maybe you can help me turn it around.

I hope I can continue on this winning streak.

chili, I assume I am doing something wrong since I ran the NBA games about the same time as you?
our books lines shouldn't matter as I just plugged -170 in after moving 3 points?

Nah, you're doing it right. I buy 3 points for -165 with my locals, so I do the math at -165.

Dec 10 07:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 802 Washington Wizards +6 buying 2½ points -160 for Game
14.00 USD 8.75 USD
Dec 10 08:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 812 Chicago Bulls +5 buying 2 points -150 for Game
13.00 USD 8.67 USD
Dec 10 08:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 816 San Antonio Spurs -5 buying 3 points -170 for Game
20.00 USD 11.76 USD
Dec 10 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 818 Utah Jazz -3 buying ½ points -120 for Game
12.00 USD 10.00 USD
Dec 10 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 820 Phoenix Suns -2 buying 3½ points -195 for Game
19.50 USD 10.00 USD
Dec 10 10:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 822 Golden State Warriors +12 buying 2 points -150 for Game
14.00 USD 9.33 USD
6 Straight(s) 92.50 USD 58.51 USD

Also do you feel comfortable still with ur ncaa picks and what are the units sizes?

Yup, I feel good about the cbb picks. I have Siena -2.5 for 2.7 units, and Wyoming +6 for 2.5u.

Booked Chili's except for the Jazz, I tacked on a little extra cash onto the others instead of the Jazz

Lets do this!

Utah had an edge in the calc just because the line is at -113, and I get it at -105.

impper, I did do that but the lines at my book were all identical to pinny when I ran the numbers
a couple were different earlier in the day, but at this time they are all the same.
I just meant that they are all -110 / -110 and -170 if buying the 3 pts.

What you'll find frustrating is that you could run the numbers 3 times in 3 hours and get different plays. Usually, those are excellent middle opportunities. I love it when both plays hit on the same game

[Gtownguy487]

Dec 10 10:00 PM EST - Basketball NCAA - 827 Wyoming +6 buying 3 points -170 for Game
18.42 USD 10.84 USD
1 Straight(s) 18.42 USD 10.84 USD

[chilidog]

I used SBRodds for the live pinny lines.
Is that what you guys do or do you go to pinnacle's site for more accurate/up to date lines?

Yah, I use sbrodds as well, but because I use locals and get 3 points at -165, and I'm sure sometimes I have different spreads than you guys do, my plays will differ. I've been tracking something that should give us a perfect consensus on what the plays will be, and so far this week, it's been working out really well. I'm just posting the plays that I bet for now, I'll go into more detail on it later.

[chilidog]

Is my Lakers bet pretty solid? I know theres no such thing as a Lock however wanted to get a few of your opinion since this thread is quite active

Chicago +5 has the edge, but who knows, it could lose, or both bets could win. Good luck either way!

Lakers at -1 have a nice edge. No telling how it'll play out though.

Yah, but your lucky ass has those weird lines at betus. My book has it at lakers -2, which made chicago +5 the play.

[chilidog]

Dec 10 10:00 PM EST - Basketball NCAA - 827 Wyoming +6 buying 3 points -170 for Game
18.42 USD 10.84 USD
1 Straight(s) 18.42 USD 10.84 USD

GL on your plays tonight!!

[slimpickins]

sounds good, thanks for explaining that Chili
I am just playing Spurs and Warriors under this system since our games matched on those 2 even if the numbers didn't.
Spurs to win 250 and Warriors 125
We different on Port/PHX so I am not playing that one.

I had already played TOR earlier in the day and have other bets in NBA already booked on
MIN -3 and IND first half -3.5

check back tomorrow or late night to see how it goes, thanks for holding my hand all.
I hope I can contribute more to the thread moving forward

[Gtownguy487]

Thanks a lot chili and thanks everyone else who has helped