Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[chilidog]

My problem as well, I only crunched some of the earlier NCAAB games before I had to run to work at 9:30AM PST.

Can't wait till I actually get a chance to be at home on a day where we have 60+ NCAAB games lol.

Way to tear shit up Impper

Yup yup, those days are really nice

Very small card today. 10 games total (nba/cbb), but we'll still have some plays

[Romanov]

I cant believe the clippers hit. I almost doubled my bankroll yesterday with this and some nfl over picks

[chilidog]

I cant believe the clippers hit. I almost doubled my bankroll yesterday with this and some nfl over picks

[jackmyhoggoff]

LAC didn't hit 94-85 final ! 9 pts. spread -8 Magic covers!!

[chilidog]

LAC didn't hit 94-85 final ! 9 pts. spread -8 Magic covers!!

Read the thread. Yes it did cover.

[Romanov]

Lol. hey chili, there is a 2.75% adv on the heat -8, should we take it now. I have a hunch the line will only rise

Edit: I bit. The lines were going up to 11.5, so I grabbed it at 11-3=8

Edit2: Ha, maybe I bit too early because the % of bets on the heat has fallen a percent in the last minute according to sbr odds. Eh, either way, the heat should win by 8

[chilidog]

No idea, I'm not touching NBA until before gametime. I go up and down too much when I do NBA so early in the day.

[jolmscheid]

Philly...yes lobby leans was a mispelling..it is Pinny Leans...

Good job yesterday Chili and impper and everyone else!

impper, could you let me know about my teaser question on the last page? Do you tease over BOTH the 3 and 7? Isn't that just a regular Wong teaser? How do you enter that into the calculator to see your edge?

thanks all

[Romanov]

Alright. Ill be back in an hour for the ncaab

[slimpickins]

Hey Guys,

glad to hear you had a great weekend.
I made a profit on Friday but was away all weekend with only limited access.
This week I will be here each day sharing my "edges" and hopefully contributing to this thread.

Wanted to mention, Chili I saw your post Sat AM on NCAA baskets.
When I compared my lines I only ended up with a smaller number of plays compared to you becuase my lines were half point worse in about 6 games. Oak, Murray State, Prov., Fla. Atl. off top of my head ; anyway the 6 that were off all won and of course I did not play them. I ended up just a very small profit on Sat ; I went 3-2 on 5 plays. Sunday did not play any baskets, won a little in NFL.

Just thought it was worth mentioning that in reality if you look at the success of this thread and Cheme's success, in my opinion the system is winning more becuase the games are the "correct" side most of the time not becuase of half point swings and buying 3 points, IMO.
What I am getting at is I think that recognizing where a slower book like Chili's is and Cheme's was may be the hidden secret here, even if we don't get as good a line by half a point the fact that all of the books on SBR live odds are different and correct more often than not. Does that make sense or am I talking gibberish?
Just like we are considering Pinny more sharp, the same process is recognizing which slow book is extremely square and more likely to be wrong.

Opinions?

[impper]

If you took heat -8 and bought it to -5 congratulations. The line is at 11.5 at some places now, probably moving to 12. haha

[impper]

Yeah jolm I'm teasing over the 3 and the 7. I can't imagine I'm the first person to come up with such a "brilliant" idea, so I imagine that that is a wong teaser, yeah

[chilidog]

Yeah jolm I'm teasing over the 3 and the 7. I can't imagine I'm the first person to come up with such a "brilliant" idea, so I imagine that that is a wong teaser, yeah

And just doing round robins on them? How are you choosing which 2 teams to pair up?

[slimpickins]

Just ran NCAA Baskets and this is what I came up with:
Fla Atl +7.5 2.1 edge = 3.96 units

(my book is at +4.5 ; Pinny is at +4 -108)

only other play close is Wisc -17 but this is only a .15 edge so probably not worth playing.
(my book is at -20 , pinny is -20.5 -105)


Looking quickly at NBA if you can get the Heat down to -8 with buying 3 points I would do that now.
My book is at -11.5 and based on the calc there is a huge difference in edge from 8 to 8.5

Placing my FLA ATL bet now to win 400 will wait till later for NBA.

Cheers to another successful day,
Slim

[Romanov]

mysportsbook.com is a slow book but it has a shitty interface. there is a trade off. When the lines move on sbrodds I usually have a couple minutes to make my decision. also, sometimes they have lines that are a half point or a full point off of pinnacle, and ive been noticing its usually in our direction

edit: if you can buy oregon from -15 to -12, I think thats a play. KenPom has Oregon winning by 18 I might add!

[chilidog]

Hey Guys,

glad to hear you had a great weekend.
I made a profit on Friday but was away all weekend with only limited access.
This week I will be here each day sharing my "edges" and hopefully contributing to this thread.

Wanted to mention, Chili I saw your post Sat AM on NCAA baskets.
When I compared my lines I only ended up with a smaller number of plays compared to you becuase my lines were half point worse in about 6 games. Oak, Murray State, Prov., Fla. Atl. off top of my head ; anyway the 6 that were off all won and of course I did not play them. I ended up just a very small profit on Sat ; I went 3-2 on 5 plays. Sunday did not play any baskets, won a little in NFL.

Just thought it was worth mentioning that in reality if you look at the success of this thread and Cheme's success, in my opinion the system is winning more becuase the games are the "correct" side most of the time not becuase of half point swings and buying 3 points, IMO.
What I am getting at is I think that recognizing where a slower book like Chili's is and Cheme's was may be the hidden secret here, even if we don't get as good a line by half a point the fact that all of the books on SBR live odds are different and correct more often than not. Does that make sense or am I talking gibberish?
Just like we are considering Pinny more sharp, the same process is recognizing which slow book is extremely square and more likely to be wrong.

Opinions?

I have thought about this, but my local isn't really slow. The lines are pretty much on target with several books, but the lines are never exactly the same as any one particular book. Impper and a few others are using betus to run the numbers, and that has been working really good as well.

What I did find peculiar though, is that I started testing numerous books' lines, and just tracking what the bets would be, but not actually placing the bets. I even tested the SBR sportsbook lines. All of them did about the same, some worse than others, but one of my locals is the one that stood out the most, and made the most money. The games/units that I post are from that local. So, I've been doing the math with that local, and betting the games on whichever book that I want (including his).

I have no idea why this works this way, but regardless of which book that you use, the system is working. Some books are more stellar than others, but it works period. Hell, even just running the numbers from the SBR book will produce winners, just not as good as other books. Cheme's local uses bodog's lines, and bodog's numbers were very good as well. Betus was also pretty good. I haven't tested sportsbook.com, because their feed isn't in sbrodds, and I was too lazy to login and do the numbers from their website.

Bottom line is, it doesn't matter which sportsbook that you use. It's going to be successful. Sure, your profits won't be as high as using the numbers from a slower rec book (such as betus), but you will still be profitable.

[jolmscheid]

And just doing round robins on them? How are you choosing which 2 teams to pair up?

Yea would like to know how you play them once you have your teams...what is the max amount of points you use to cross the 3 AND 7? 4 point teasers, 6 points, 10 points, etc??

[chilidog]

mysportsbook.com is a slow book but it has a shitty interface. there is a trade off. When the lines move on sbrodds I usually have a couple minutes to make my decision. also, sometimes they have lines that are a half point or a full point off of pinnacle, and ive been noticing its usually in our direction

I do the games one a time, instead of running down the whole list, so it's realtime for me. I have 2 monitors, so it's easy enough to have 3 browsers running simultaneously. I have sbrodds open in open, the half point in another, and my local in the third. I input the 1st game that meets my criteria into the calc with both sbr/my local's lines, and if it's a play, I do the calculation on the spot, make the bet, record it down in excel, then refresh the lines at my local, and move on to the next play. It works out the best for me.

If you do all the numbers at once,then place your bets at the end, a line can change on you, and then you gotta do the numbers again.

[chilidog]

Just ran NCAA Baskets and this is what I came up with:
Fla Atl +7.5 2.1 edge = 3.96 units

(my book is at +4.5 ; Pinny is at +4 -108)

only other play close is Wisc -17 but this is only a .15 edge so probably not worth playing.
(my book is at -20 , pinny is -20.5 -105)


Looking quickly at NBA if you can get the Heat down to -8 with buying 3 points I would do that now.
My book is at -11.5 and based on the calc there is a huge difference in edge from 8 to 8.5

Placing my FLA ATL bet now to win 400 will wait till later for NBA.

Cheers to another successful day,
Slim

Florida Atlantic wasn't a play for me when I ran the numbers like 30 minutes ago (my local had the line at +3.5). I'll run the CBB games again in about 20 minutes, and I'm not touching NBA until tonight. That's what works best for me with the lines that I use, so I'm running with it.

[slimpickins]

my book usually seems to match up with betonline based on the liveSBRodds
I would say betonline and my book are 99% the same and maybe 100%
none of the other listed ones are as close.

Calculating Wisc right now as Pinny just went to -21 and my book still at -20

[slimpickins]

Wisc -17 for me represents a simialr edge as FLA ATL.
Playing both to win 400

Hopefully my book is wrong in the direction to my favor and not their's this AM.

[Romanov]

Yeah I understand that. I've been making the bet immediately if its over 2% adv.
On a football note (sorry to bring it in here), I would suggest the over in the Houston/Baltimore game

[GGZOLA]

boy has cheme been gone a while....3-4 weeks now. Glad u guys doin well and picking upslack,if you will....

[chilidog]

boy has cheme been gone a while....3-4 weeks now. Glad u guys doin well and picking upslack,if you will....

Yup, I'm just glad that he was kind enough to teach a few of us exactly what he was doing. Paying it forward

[chilidog]

All that I have so far is:

CBB
Siena -0.5 2.2u

[Hanger]

I love increasing my knowledge base, a question if you guys will. Having read through some 20 pages here.

One of you has Sienna, the other FAU. How do you choose which side to go? Are the both playable with buying the 3?

The other question regards juice. Seems 5dimes charges -195 for 3 points. Is that why you guys use betus? Or does your particular books juice not count and you keep using the Pinny lines.

Very curious here. Thanks guys

[slimpickins]

The reason Chili is playing Sienna -.5 and I am on FAU + 7.5 is the difference in lines at our individual books.

His book has FAU +3.5 and mine has FAU +4.5
Pinny has FAU +4
the system is really about exploiting which games Pinny shows to be favoring vs. your book.
buying 3 points on top of that is just increasing your edge to a larger range.

Chili has been doing this for awhile and doing quite well at it.
I am new to doing my own calculations and not sure how my book compares.

I am nervous to see him on the other side and fear my book may be leaning the right way and wrong way for me.
I would follow Chili before me but we will see what happens.
These picks are based on lines and the calc only, no capping of the games.

[slimpickins]

You use Pinny's lines but then into the calc at the bottom after moving 3 pts. plug in your line.
If you are paying -195 you likely would never show an edge.
Most locals allow to buy 3 points for -170 ; Chili gets 3 for -165 I believe.

Not sure any of us actually use betus.

Most locals now have an online interface that is probably liked to a major book.
Believe Cheme had the same lines as bodog, me the same as betonline, impper same as betus.
Not positive about this but if my book line difference turns out to not work, I probably will switch to comparing lines to Bodog as my belief is this system leans you to the right side, and is not about profiting cuase of .5 libne differences.

[chilidog]

Well, my 2nd local releases his CBB lines earlier, so I go with his when I run the games at 10am. My main local, his CBB lines are released anywhere between 11am-noon on weekdays. So the first local, I only had Siena -0.5. With my main local (the one that I usually post plays from), there are no CBB games today (the Siena/FAU game has the same +4 line as pinny, making it a no play).

[chilidog]

You use Pinny's lines but then into the calc at the bottom after moving 3 pts. plug in your line.
If you are paying -195 you likely would never show an edge.
Most locals allow to buy 3 points for -170 ; Chili gets 3 for -165 I believe.

Not sure any of us actually use betus.

Most locals now have an online interface that is probably liked to a major book.
Believe Cheme had the same lines as bodog, me the same as betonline, impper same as betus.
Not positive about this but if my book line difference turns out to not work, I probably will switch to comparing lines to Bodog as my belief is this system leans you to the right side, and is not about profiting cuase of .5 libne differences.

I know that impper does use betus, and there's another guy that posts screenshots of his plays, and those are from betus as well. I think that Jolm is using rebatewager to do the math and place the bets.

And yah, I get 3 points for -165 with both of my locals.

[slimpickins]

my book has dropped FAU to +4 like everyone else now.
Strange that betonline is still at Wisc -20 when all other books on the liveodds chart are at -21.
A full point difference?

[chilidog]

Also, keep in mind that middles do happen quite a bit when you're playing both sides. I'm not saying to bet both sides blindly. Just that when your book has the play at Siena -0.5, and maybe on hour later it changes so that FAU +7.5 is the play, I would actually bet both sides. They hit at such a high rate, so it's worth it to me.

Personally, I've been running the numbers 3 times a day when I can. Once at 10am CST for CBB, a 2nd time at 11am CST for CBB, then the 3rd time at 5pm CST for NBA. There will be plays that I double up on, or that I bet the opposite side on. Whatever I post is exactly what I just bet, along with the exact unit amount bet (I am currently betting to win; I only bet to risk after I have a bad losing streak that takes out a chunk of the bankroll - but that's only happened to me once during a stupidity/testing phase).

[Hanger]

Ok so for example.

5dimes is +4 -107 -4 -103
Pinny +4 -108 -4-102

On the calculator FAU side(+7), I get
5dimes line 5.35
Pinny line 5.01
Edge = .34= No Play

On the Sienna(-1) side I get
5 dimes line 5.63
Pinny line 5.12
Edge =.51=No Play

Would that be correct. I inserted -195 on the +3 line in the chart, and recorded Fave Edge and Dog Edge.
I understand since 5 dimes juice is high, that there wouldn't be an opportunity for edges often, however as I said, I am just curious on this system that you guys are using. Knowledge is power right

Thanks for answering the questions guys, it seems you must all be really busy will this calculator lol

[Balco10]

I am also on FAU +3.5....
The line started out at -4 last night, went down to -3.5 this morning,and now back to -4.
Personally I think FAU is the better team.

[Hanger]

The reason Chili is playing Sienna -.5 and I am on FAU + 7.5 is the difference in lines at our individual books.

His book has FAU +3.5 and mine has FAU +4.5
Pinny has FAU +4
the system is really about exploiting which games Pinny shows to be favoring vs. your book.
buying 3 points on top of that is just increasing your edge to a larger range.

Chili has been doing this for awhile and doing quite well at it.
I am new to doing my own calculations and not sure how my book compares.

I am nervous to see him on the other side and fear my book may be leaning the right way and wrong way for me.
I would follow Chili before me but we will see what happens.
These picks are based on lines and the calc only, no capping of the games.

Oh that makes sense. Youre not running every game, just where there is a difference of Pinny line Vs your book. Interesting