Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[chilidog]

yah, looks like pinny has been favoring detroit for most of the morning

[Romanov]

yah, looks like pinny has been favoring detroit for most of the morning

denver?

[chilidog]

yah, i meant denver, sorry

[Romanov]

dont worry. I hope we get another play or two at 11. Louisville, if it drops back to 13.5 will probably be a play


the odd thing about this system is that now neither of our plays, wyoming -2 or denver +9.5 are plays. if we were a half hour late to our comps, they aren't plays. it seems pretty arbitrary...

[chilidog]

Who knows, we might have another play, or none at all. The lines start moving a lot between 10-11am CST, so plays come and go.

[Romanov]

I think the wyoming line is going to fall to 4.5 even. Its going to make ur denver +9.5 look brilliant

[slimpickins]

Great night all!
Looking at the lines this morning, I had nothing that would have been a play. In fact lines seem pretty much in-line with Pinny accross the board.
Bodog is not listed yet in NCAA so I can't check to see if Cheme would have had an AM play.

I will report back a little before 6 PM EST with my (Cheme simulated based on Bodog) play's.
I am going to play just Cheme's simulated plays even if I don't get the same lines.
But will use -170 not the -165 Cheme used to pay for 3 points.
Last night his plays went undefeated, I played his NBA games with my .5 pt. worse lines and still won easily.

[slimpickins]

Scratch that thought. Cinny line is moving but still not a play at this point.

[Romanov]

Great night all! Looking at the lines this morning, I had nothing that would have been a play. In fact lines seem pretty much in-line with Pinny accross the board. Bodog is not listed yet in NCAA so I can't check to see if Cheme would have had an AM play. I will report back a little before 6 PM EST with my (Cheme simulated based on Bodog) play's. I am going to play just Cheme's simulated plays even if I don't get the same lines. But will use -170 not the -165 Cheme used to pay for 3 points. Last night his plays went undefeated, I played his NBA games with my .5 pt. worse lines and still won easily.

For the NBA, it looks like the .5 points we may lose depending on the timing of bets, and our personal books is marginal and inconsequential most of the time since we are buying 3 points.

[jolmscheid]

I'm not showing anything for CBB as of now...no -108+ Pinny leans...

Hey Chili...if you run the plays at 11, and again at say 3, do you PLAY the ones you calculated again at 3? Or do you just stick with your plays that you did at 11?


Thanks......seems my best times have been between 3-6.....it's just my schedule is so whacked up that I can't play them at the same each day...but as long as I stick to the -108+ Pinny leans no matter what time of the day, I should be OK

[Romanov]

johlm

Late last night, around 7, two plays popped up and both hit. Oregon and Cal Poly. I would just be cautious with the unit size

[slimpickins]

Bodog lines are now up so I can comfirm no AM plays.
In the NBA I will wait until later, hard to tell now but it appears DET may be shaping into a play we will see.

[chilidog]

CBB
Pacific -3 3.8u

[chilidog]

Hey Chili...if you run the plays at 11, and again at say 3, do you PLAY the ones you calculated again at 3? Or do you just stick with your plays that you did at 11?

I guess it more depends on how much risk I have going on that day. Sometimes I just treat each instance as if I never ran the numbers that day, and I'll end up betting twice on the same time. Othertimes, I just make bets on any new plays that I didn't have earlier.

[jolmscheid]

THanks For the reply Chili...that sounds good...

Now for impper's round robin teasers, I looked at the NFL lines, and it looks like the Chargers, TExans, Cardinals, Browns, and Saints would all be able to cross the 3 AND 7 on a 6.5 point teaser...

So is that all impper does? Then he round robins them all?

[Romanov]

chili,

I can get central mich +1, pinny has that game as a pickem. If I buy the 3 points I get a 2.84 advantage. Thats a play. Why didnt you play that one?

[chilidog]

chili,

I can get central mich +1, pinny has that game as a pickem. If I buy the 3 points I get a 2.84 advantage. Thats a play. Why didnt you play that one?

Personal preference. I only pay attention to games where the pinny line is -108 or worse. Some people also look at games where you have a point difference between pinny and your book. I just choose not to do so.

[Romanov]

Plays so far for me:

Wyoming (-2)
Oakland (+14.5)
Central Mich (+4)

Edit: Ah okay. Thanks

[chilidog]

I forgot to refresh SBROdds, so that I would get all of the games. I also now have:

CBB
Oakland +14.5 6.7u

[chilidog]

So, my final CBB plays for the day are:

CBB
Denver +9.5 4.7u
Pacific -3 3.8u
Oakland +14.5 6.7u

I've only bet these once, not multiple times. I'll post again around 5 with my NBA games. GL!

[Romanov]

I plugged in the pacific game on the calculator (6.5 spread with a -110 on fav and +100 on dog)
Lets consider that taking the ML is buying 6.5 points. The ML is -280
I scrolled down to 0 points (buying 6.5 points) and plugged in the -280.
It returned an advantage of 1.62%.

Your thoughts? Should ML be plays?

Edit: Did the same thing with Wyoming and the ML would be a no play there. Does that lend credibility?

[slimpickins]

Only CBB play for me is Oakland, line came out a little late at my book.
Oakland +14.5 (only played for 3u, even though edge was higher)
Will run CBB based on Cheme numbers early evening and may add more to this or other college games.

[slimpickins]

Romanov, not sure about ML cause it has not been tracked.
Only thing I recall is that Cheme did state back in the day the further away from 3 pts. you move the calc the more Inaccurate in becomes.
Therefore moving 6.5 pts. may not be accurate. Cheme is kind of the godfather of this system since he is no longer around, lol.

[Romanov]

Okay. Well if I see that ML hit often enough for it to be profitable then I'll let you guys know

[chilidog]

Romanov, not sure about ML cause it has not been tracked.
Only thing I recall is that Cheme did state back in the day the further away from 3 pts. you move the calc the more Inaccurate in becomes.
Therefore moving 6.5 pts. may not be accurate. Cheme is kind of the godfather of this system since he is no longer around, lol.

Exactly, he said to stick with 3 points max because the further you moved away from 3, the less accurate it was.

[Romanov]

Ah okay. Chili have you kept track of your overall record on this system?

[chilidog]

Ah okay. Chili have you kept track of your overall record on this system?

No, I just keep track of my bankroll

[Romanov]

Haha thats what matters

[Romanov]

Lets hit em today

[slimpickins]

I am thinking about splitting my NBA plays in half.
To win 50% without buying any points at -110
And to win 50% with buying the 3 points at -170
If I get middled worse that happens is I lose -10 juice only.
If this happens often I would change to always buying 3 of course.
If both lose I lose less and if I win both I win the same.
Thoughts?

College I would stay always buying 3 as it seems many more of those end up very close.
NBA not so much, being on the right side seems more important than the points most of the time.

[chilidog]

I am thinking about splitting my NBA plays in half.
To win 50% without buying any points at -110
And to win 50% with buying the 3 points at -170
If I get middled worse that happens is I lose -10 juice only.
If this happens often I would change to always buying 3 of course.
If both lose I lose less and if I win both I win the same.
Thoughts?

College I would stay always buying 3 as it seems many more of those end up very close.
NBA not so much, being on the right side seems more important than the points most of the time.

Why would you want to do this? Yes, the plays do hit at a high rate for NBA, but cheme tracked it, and you were leaving a lot of money on the table by not buying the 3 points.

[jolmscheid]

Slim I would track it first...I started tracking it without buying points and it was around 18-25....if we could track it for 200-300 games, then we could see I guess...

[GGZOLA]

I am tracking for you guys, started saturday in nba with and without points. I'll keep doing it as long as you guys post the plays, but I will do chilidogs final plays because if I post all of you itll be real messy.

[jolmscheid]

That would be awesome GGZOLA

[jolmscheid]

But like Chili said, buying the 3 points gives us the most profits...