Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[chilidog]

I am tracking for you guys, started saturday in nba with and without points. I'll keep doing it as long as you guys post the plays, but I will do chilidogs final plays because if I post all of you itll be real messy.

Sweet I post my CBB plays as well if you wanted to keep track of those, too.

[GGZOLA]

yes, thats without stating....but just as a token of my appreciation, I am gonna track every nba play from chili, then post
"YTD" records (My year started dec 11th sat night LOL) with and without points. Just want to keep a record of the percentages.
By flat-betting, you would net a profit if you hit over 52.5% straight plays. I think one of you mentioned with the -165, 170 etc 3points would be around 63% to break even/make money level.

[GGZOLA]

I will try CBB, if time permits, starting today as well, itll give me something to do. I am keeping a log for NBA for sure 100%, but CBB can be overwhelming especially on wednesday/saturdays, Ill do my best; dont know how u guys do it plugging in each game!

[GGZOLA]

CHILI, do you buy 3pts at 165 or 170 so I can input correctly?

[impper]

Ok impper...so basically all you do is tease 6, 5, 4, 3, or 2 points to cross the 3 AND 7 in football and round robin them...OK....so how do you figure out your edge??

Thanks imp...would just like to get that system down for NFL too so that I can have NFL and NBA and NCAAB covered...then hopefully NHL and MLB we can figure out too...

Thanks!

you figure out the edge the same exact way you do as in basketball. go to the calc, enter pinny's numbers, go down to where you're teasing to. the difference is you're entering -265 instead of -170

[chilidog]

I will try CBB, if time permits, starting today as well, itll give me something to do. I am keeping a log for NBA for sure 100%, but CBB can be overwhelming especially on wednesday/saturdays, Ill do my best; dont know how u guys do it plugging in each game!

I don't plug in every CBB game - only games where the pinny line is -108 or worse. It saves a ton of time! I do plug in every single NBA game though.

CHILI, do you buy 3pts at 165 or 170 so I can input correctly?

165

you figure out the edge the same exact way you do as in basketball. go to the calc, enter pinny's numbers, go down to where you're teasing to. the difference is you're entering -265 instead of -170

I thought I understood what you were doing, and then jolm brought up a point that I hadn't thought about. Are you teasing past the 3 AND the 7 on any given game, or either/or ?

[slimpickins]

That is great if GGZOLA tracks the NBA plays with and without points.
I will hold off for now then and wait on some data first.

[GGZOLA]

Chili, once I have your NBA plays later on, I will finalize your "card" (more like cliff-notes to me hehe) then track and post final results daily and "YTD from dec 11th."

I will do it guys, I cannot buy better than -150 for 2 points at one book only (max 2 points) so I will lay back for a while see how the games go without the points in NBA especially. But I will do my best to keep accurate count for BOTH nba and ncaa.

[chilidog]

Chili, once I have your NBA plays later on, I will finalize your "card" (more like cliff-notes to me hehe) then track and post final results daily and "YTD from dec 11th."

I will do it guys, I cannot buy better than -150 for 2 points at one book only (max 2 points) so I will lay back for a while see how the games go without the points in NBA especially. But I will do my best to keep accurate count for BOTH nba and ncaa.

You'll do just fine without buying points in the NBA. NEVER bet CBB without buying the 3 points. I tried that, and it almost wiped out my bankroll. Don't do that - it'll burn you bad. I think when Cheme went away, buying 3 points in NBA brought you an additional +30 units.

[Gtownguy487]

chili im reading rochestertitans thread and his big play is 7 Units on Central Michigan+1 and i see Romanov is also licking them at +4

Would this be a good play for us at +4?

[chilidog]

chili im reading rochestertitans thread and his big play is 7 Units on Central Michigan+1 and i see Romanov is also licking them at +4

Would this be a good play for us at +4?

Yah, based on the numbers right now, Central Michigan +4 would be a play, at 2.8 units, but I'm not playing it. I've already made my CBB plays for the day, and I don't run the numbers anymore after 11am.

[GGZOLA]

speaking from experience, I strongly suggest you separate the "expert" opinions from the proven-statistical percentage edges.

[chilidog]

speaking from experience, I strongly suggest you separate the "expert" opinions from the proven-statistical percentage edges.

Couldn't have said it better myself. The true experts (the guys that set the lines in vegas and/or pinny) are the ones that are telling us everything that we need to know. I don't care what anybody else has to say.

[impper]

I thought I understood what you were doing, and then jolm brought up a point that I hadn't thought about. Are you teasing past the 3 AND the 7 on any given game, or either/or ?

Only way this is profitable is teasing past both. You also want to tease PAST them, and not OFF or ON to them. There's less value in buying off of 3 or 7 than there is in buying past 3 or 7

[chilidog]

Only way this is profitable is teasing past both. You also want to tease PAST them, and not OFF or ON to them. There's less value in buying off of 3 or 7 than there is in buying past 3 or 7

Gotcha then I'll be curious how this plays out on sunday. Are you currently betting it, or just tracking it?

[slimpickins]

DET in NBA is really looking like a big play (especially for simulation Cheme as Bodog is still +5)
+7.5 or +8 is still going to come up a big play.

Chili: still feel it is never a good idea to jump early on an NBA play? just worried the line is going down to +4 soon if this continues.

[chilidog]

DET in NBA is really looking like a big play (especially for simulation Cheme as Bodog is still +5)
+7.5 or +8 is still going to come up a big play.

Chili: still feel it is never a good idea to jump early on an NBA play? just worried the line is going down to +4 soon if this continues.

I'm not saying that it's not a good idea; a few on here have really good success doing it. With me, I go up and down. The days I don't bet the NBA early, they cash. The days that I do bet them, they don't seem to do as well. I'm sure if I bet them consistently, then it'd be fine. It's just a personal preference for me; you're more than welcome to do what you want. For me, I have found the most profitable with NBA is to following cheme's original system, and that's what I do. CBB wasn't working as well doing it the same way as NBA, so we had to figure that one out, and now it all works awesome. It's your call though.

[TheKevman]

Ugh fairly nervous about tonight's plays...just ran the numbers for College and NBA right now (won't make official plays until about 3:30pm PST, so 2.5 more hours) but BetUS is shading some of these lines....HARD.

The plays I'm getting right now are:

NBA:

New Jersey +5.5 (BetUS has the line at 2.5 instead of 1.5) 6.23%
Toronto +8 1.34%
Lakers -7.5 1.36%
Houston -6 0.93%

And then where it starts to get really dicey...NCAAB

Central Michigan +5 (Free 1/2 point) 7.73%
Oakland +15 (Free point) 6.14%
Illinois Chicago +4 1.80%
Drexel +18 (Free point) 3.59%
Denver +9.5 (Free 1.5 points) 6.12%
Santa Clara +10 1.02%

The thing that has me most nervous is that 3 of the 4 free point plays in College are against the Pinny leans...(Denver/Drexel/Oakland). I'm more than happy to lay the lumber on New Jersey in the NBA and Central Mich as Pinny is juicing those teams hard, but going against Pinny has me worried

I'm going to run these again soon but as of now it looks like a make it or break it night lol....

[jolmscheid]

So impper...do I put in each leg of the teaser into the calc?? When do you do your plays for NFL?

Sorry for so many questions, but I appreciate the help....

[GGZOLA]

guys...a note, betus is notorious for having bad/stale lines. I know because I used to play there and scalp the living shit out of them.
I think its a great base to use against sharp books.

[Romanov]

Played: Detroit +8 and Denver +5.5

[impper]

Gotcha then I'll be curious how this plays out on sunday. Are you currently betting it, or just tracking it?

I bet it on Sunday. I made 3.5 units on 2-team teasers, and went 1-0 on 3-team teasers for +4.5 unit.

[impper]

So impper...do I put in each leg of the teaser into the calc?? When do you do your plays for NFL?

Sorry for so many questions, but I appreciate the help....

Yes. You want to run each game individually, and then set up a round robin for all the teams you get. So if you have 4 teams, you'll play 6 teasers, 5 teams you play 10 teasers. You may also want to round-robin 3 at a time, but that's getting into sketchier territory imo.

[impper]

I'm more than happy to lay the lumber on New Jersey in the NBA and Central Mich as Pinny is juicing those teams hard, but going against Pinny has me worried

Even with pinny giving the other side a lean, if you moved that line with a free point in your favor they'd lean on your side hard. Betus is giving out garbage lines.

[Romanov]

anyone suggest the nets +5? or should i wait till 5 o clock

[jolmscheid]

Yes. You want to run each game individually, and then set up a round robin for all the teams you get. So if you have 4 teams, you'll play 6 teasers, 5 teams you play 10 teasers. You may also want to round-robin 3 at a time, but that's getting into sketchier territory imo.

Thanks for the reply impper....so I enter in the -265 because that is what a 6-point teaser would cost for each team??

Do you really even use the calculator since you only pick teams that cross the 3 AND 7 with a 6-point teaser??

Thanks impper....it seems like there is an edge by crossing the 3 AND 7 in NFL, so maybe we don't even have to use the calc???

[jolmscheid]

anyone suggest the nets +5? or should i wait till 5 o clock

I ran my numbers now and I have 8 games going tonight....lots of money on the table boys...

[ghost xx]

but what 4 teams are you using?

[ghost xx]

or 8

[jolmscheid]

Wyoming, C. Mich, Illinois-Chicago, Louisville, Santa Clara, Tennessee, Raptors, Pistons

[jolmscheid]

You guys won't believe this....I went into my SBR book to play my plays for points, and they ALREADY cut me off from buying 3 points...I have been doing it for 3 days and now they ALREADY cut me off!!!! Geez, first it's BetJam and now it's SBR! HA HA...I sure hope RebateWager lets me continue to do this

[Romanov]

I ran my numbers now and I have 8 games going tonight....lots of money on the table boys...

Finalized and played:

NBA:
Houston (-6)
New Jersey (+5)
Denver (+5.5)
Detroit (+8)

NCAAB:
Oakland (+14.5)
Central Michigan (+4)
Wyoming (-2)

Big Tuesday!

[phillybadboy]

Wyoming, C. Mich, Illinois-Chicago, Louisville, Santa Clara, Tennessee, Raptors, Pistons

goo d luck

[chilidog]

guys...a note, betus is notorious for having bad/stale lines. I know because I used to play there and scalp the living shit out of them.
I think its a great base to use against sharp books.

Indeed, betus is a good book to determine the plays.

I ran my numbers now and I have 8 games going tonight....lots of money on the table boys...

Lotta plays for a Tuesday - I love it! I'll run my numbers in just a bit.

You guys won't believe this....I went into my SBR book to play my plays for points, and they ALREADY cut me off from buying 3 points...I have been doing it for 3 days and now they ALREADY cut me off!!!! Geez, first it's BetJam and now it's SBR! HA HA...I sure hope RebateWager lets me continue to do this

Sheesh, the SBR book?? That guy trixtrix seems to be cleaning up from buying points in NBA, and now they shut you off? Unreal!

[jolmscheid]

ok impper...I found out how to find my edge on the 6-point teasers...so ALL 6-point teasers I am entering in -265 as the odds correct??

Now when I do that and find my edges for certain games, how do I know how much to play them for when I pair them together? Do I add the edges together or something??

And at 5Dimes, I can get 2-team 6-point teasers for EVEN odds...so I think that is what it should be right?