Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[Ras1112]

alright i'm reading up on ucla and kansas and it looks like there's no chance ucla wins. still, they only need to win 7.6% of the time for that to be a good bet . . . hrm

i'm also a little biased because i watched ucla beat pacific earlier in the season and that nelson guy looked like an all-world talent. guess it helped that he was playing stiffs

Ok it just 1 win out of 13 games and you are even great! On the other hand you never now when that one win will come, it can be game#1 or #13

[slimpickins]

would be a good idea in my opinion if someone decided to post their plays.
Cheme has been gone for awhile now and with no plays being posted this thread has good discussion but is going to fizzle out and disappear if there are never any picks posted.
Hopefully chili, impper or someone else will step up to the plate and take over the thread.
Cheme would not mind and likely appreciate if the thread stays active.

No offense but I can't be alone in thinking I am wasting my time read back and forth of how people did the night before every day.

[pokerwhiz90]

hey impper can you post all your bets with the edge% for the cbb ones your going to run at noon? I'm going to run the same numbers and try to see if i get something similar, also i just trust your calculations over mine olol

[impper]

Yeah I've been running the math some more and it's looking like it'll just contribute a lot more to big swings, which is the last thing we need haha. Well I have 9 ML dog plays in for today, we'll see how it goes tonight when the smoke clears

[Ras1112]

It seems to be up and down on when to place the bets. Jolm and impper have been doing good at times with betting earlier in the day, and I have been good at times when betting before gametime. Last week, they had more losses by betting earlier, and I killed it betting before gametime. This week has had the opposite effect. Cheme bet them 1-2 hours before gametime most of the time, but sometimes not until 15-30 minutes before, depending on how much time he had. Othertimes, he posted the plays between 3-4pm, because he wasn't going to be around at night to do the numbers.

I was doing it both way. early picks worked great in the beginning then last 3 day I was 50/50 no matter when you make them. In general I'll be in the camp that closer you get to game time sharper line should be but sometimes fate of the game decided long before and books start playing line games just suck in as much profit as they can, so, in this case closing line doesn't tell all the story. Today I'm planing to place bets somewhere in between, lets say 1-2 hrs before game time.

[impper]

hey impper can you post all your bets with the edge% for the cbb ones your going to run at noon? I'm going to run the same numbers and try to see if i get something similar, also i just trust your calculations over mine olol

hey poker, i already placed most of my bets for the day. i can run the numbers again, or would you rather i post the plays i've gotten?

[chilidog]

I was doing it both way. early picks worked great in the beginning then last 3 day I was 50/50 no matter when you make them. In general I'll be in the camp that closer you get to game time sharper line should be but sometimes fate of the game decided long before and books start playing line games just suck in as much profit as they can, so, in this case closing line doesn't tell all the story. Today I'm planing to place bets somewhere in between, lets say 1-2 hrs before game time.

Yesterday I waited 1 hour before, and went 9-10, losing 3 units. I usually wait 30 minutes before, but there's so many games starting at the same time that I needed more time to do them all.

[chilidog]

I came up with these games for CBB for tonight. No NBA games:

Rider -2.5 -165 1.96%
St. Peter's +8 -165 1.13%
Tennessee Chat +9.5 -165 1.27%
Georgia Southern +13 -165 3.98%
Murray State -1 -165 2.03%
Valparaiso -1.5 -165 2.63%
Northern Illinois +12.5 -165 2.25%
Air Force -3 -165 2.04%

[impper]

I have:

Arizona State +14. Line is now at +9.5 -105 on pinny
Eastern Kentucky +9. Line is now at +4 1.980 on Pinny
Murray State -1. Line is now at -4 1.926 on Pinny. (Eastern kentucky and murray state are the same game, so i have -1 on MS and +9 on EK)
Youngstown State +11. Line is +8 1.935 on Pinny.
Valparaiso -1.5. Line is -4.5 1.909 on Pinny.
Oregon +10. Line is +6 1.935 on pin
CS Northride +10. Line is +6 1.980 on pin
Rider -2.5. Line is -5.5 1.926
Tennessee Chattanooga +10. Line is +6 1.990
St. Peters +8. +5 1.917 pinny
Davidson +8.5. +4.5 1.971
Eastern Illinois -2.5. -5.5 1.962

All of the pinny lines are as of 11:58 AM

[pokerwhiz90]

hey imper those numbers are just fine, are those last numbers the edges? if so, than how do i know how many units to put on each?

[impper]

Another play: Georgia Southern +13 (2.83% edge)

[Barnes01]

I am not too good at reading all of this lol, which game do you like better....Youngstown State or St Peters

[impper]

no those aren't the edges sorry, i calculate my edge and place the bet using a calculator that's already set up to do this function so i'd have to go back and divide each of my wagers to determine the edge. i'm getting a lot of big edges where my book's line is weaker than pinnacle's line and so i'm capping those plays at 5.5 units at the moment (5.5 is arbitrary, it's based on my bankroll and how many games i'm expecting to play in a day)

[impper]

Youngstown state has a bigger edge

[Barnes01]

What's your two favorite games so far today

[pokerwhiz90]

oh ic, could you tell me how many units you put on each game?

[impper]

hey imper those numbers are just fine, are those last numbers the edges? if so, than how do i know how many units to put on each?

those are my plays based on the numbers my book gave me when I placed them. you will have to run the calculator yourself using your own book's number to determine your own edge.

[pokerwhiz90]

the reason why im asking is i think when you run the calculations and assign the unit values, your getting a better edge % so your unit value will be exploiting the edge more

[impper]

the reason why im asking is i think when you run the calculations and assign the unit values, your getting a better edge % so your unit value will be exploiting the edge more

yes, i have quite a few 5.5 unit plays.

for nba i have:

Golden state -1.5 -110 5.5 units
Cleveland +9.5 -170 5.5 units

[chilidog]

yes, i have quite a few 5.5 unit plays.

for nba i have:

Golden state -1.5 -110 5.5 units
Cleveland +9.5 -170 5.5 units

Early in the day, is your cutoff to look at a game -107 or -108?

[pokerwhiz90]

are there any of those plays for cbb? how do you level your units, do you have like 1 unit plays, 3 unit plays and then 5 unit plays?

[Barnes01]

I think I really like the over 228 in the Suns game

[Ras1112]

Yesterday I waited 1 hour before, and went 9-10, losing 3 units ...

I placed all my bets in 10-15min window before games yesterday and went 7-8.
Early opening line moves it's usually tells the story where it will be but still I'm not comfortable placing bets in 5-6 hours in advance.

[impper]

Early in the day, is your cutoff to look at a game -107 or -108?

i'll have a look at -107 games especially if it's on a good number for the fav or underdog.

For the GS game, pinny has them at -2.5 -108, and my book has them at -1.5 -110. There's a 4.5% edge there and I think the line move to -3 pretty soon.

For cleveland we've got +5.5 -107. My book has em at +6.5 -110 so I bought the 3 points for another ~5% edge. (edit: oops, it's 7.51% edge)

max bet on both games, even this early in the day. I could see cleveland moving to +6 or even +6.5 later in the day, but I'll still have an edge and frankly I think cleveland wins this outright anyway. I could be wrong though

[impper]

the reason why im asking is i think when you run the calculations and assign the unit values, your getting a better edge % so your unit value will be exploiting the edge more

i have 5.5 on arizona state, eastern kentucky, and oregon. arizona state has moved 1.5 points in my favor, eastern kentucky 2 points, and oregon i'm up by 1 point and I think the line will move from +6 to +5.5 eventually, for 1.5 points ahead (along with the point buying for the edge, all at nice numbers for dogs)

[chilidog]

i'll have a look at -107 games especially if it's on a good number for the fav or underdog.

For the GS game, pinny has them at -2.5 -108, and my book has them at -1.5 -110. There's a 4.5% edge there and I think the line move to -3 pretty soon.

For cleveland we've got +5.5 -107. My book has em at +6.5 -110 so I bought the 3 points for another ~5% edge. (edit: oops, it's 7.51% edge)

max bet on both games, even this early in the day. I could see cleveland moving to +6 or even +6.5 later in the day, but I'll still have an edge and frankly I think cleveland wins this outright anyway. I could be wrong though

You're getting really awesome lines then. Are you still using betus? I just checked their site, both logged in, and not logged in, and I'm not getting those numbers. Did you do them earlier, or are you still getting those lines?

[Barnes01]

I think I will roll with Youngstown State and St Peters, I am just going off numbers with St Peters bc when I look at their competition and points scored I am scared as hell playing them being that they only avg like 50 a game, lol. What you think

[impper]

You're getting really awesome lines then. Are you still using betus? I just checked their site, both logged in, and not logged in, and I'm not getting those numbers. Did you do them earlier, or are you still getting those lines?

i just checked a second ago and betus still has golden state at -1.5 and cleveland at +6.5. you're not getting those lines?

[impper]

wow i just checked betus in firefox, not logged in, and the line is +5.5 cleveland and -2.5 golden state. what's with these guys?

[chilidog]

i just checked a second ago and betus still has golden state at -1.5 and cleveland at +6.5. you're not getting those lines?

Nope. I have Golden State -2.5 and Cleveland +5.5. I logged out to see if I'm getting different lines than what they're showing when I login, and it's the same.

[pokerwhiz90]

hey impper and chilidog thanks for posting the plays, keep posting them up! atleast until cheme gets back


i know cheme also posted the units next to all the game he played, so i'd encourage you guys to do the same, today is the first day im putting my hard cash on these so best of luck to all of us

[impper]

i just checked their ncaa in a private firefox window and the lines seem to be on the level, but nba the lines are still off in my account. you think they got me pegged as a system better? a fish, maybe? lol

i was absolutely murdering them up until my little 4-day losing streak

[slimpickins]

Thanks for posting plays guys, good stuff

[chilidog]

haha, enjoy it while you can then! I used to get different lines all the time (because I was a JM NBA system bettor), but then after a few times of me fading the system plays, I now get the same lines that they post on their website without logging in.

[impper]

i signed up a while ago under someone's referral, do you think that's maybe why they're giving me those garbage nba lines?