HG's College Hoops Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Northwestern/Rutgers o131.5 -105
I get 67+ possessions for this one, which I think will be enough to get us over 131 points. Normally I like to see more free throw shooting for an over, but I think that the Rutgers defense isn’t as good as it appears on paper. Rutgers is off of a very low scoring game against Iowa, but the pace in that one was still good (73 possessions). The teams just didn’t score well.

[doubledime]

8:00 Wright St/UW-Green Bay o151 -110
Green Bay is one of the fastest teams in the nation, and averages 80.3 possessions per game (#4). Wright St is nowhere near that fast, but Scott Nagy has brought a little more tempo to the Raiders this season. As a result, I see a 75+ possession game here. Both teams are good at getting to the line, and I think Green Bay will score a lot of points off of turnovers as Wright St doesn’t protect the ball very well. We will probably need some decent shooting from Wright St, however, which is always an area of concern for me. Kenpom has 76 possessions.

Just posted this one also. Good luck to both of us!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Just posted this one also. Good luck to both of us!!

Excellent. Hope these guys can put it in the basket tonight.

[doubledime]

Excellent. Hope these guys can put it in the basket tonight.

Wow, up to 154.5 at some shops

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-2 night. Three of the four teams combined to go 11-59 (18.6%) from three. Not gonna win many overs with shooting nights like that.

Thread: 47-40 (+4.91u)
Totals only: 45-34

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Rider/Manhattan o149.5 -105
These two teams are both top 40 in possessions per game (77.2 and 76.2), and I think we could see up to 80 possessions tonight. The raw offensive efficiency numbers here aren’t great, but the volume of opportunities should be high. Plus, now that they are in conference these two are averaging between 3 and 5 points per game above their season averages (and allowing more points as well). Kenpom has 75 possessions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Quick update on my model...

Through 336 games, it is hitting 54.46% on totals.
It has picked 206 of those games to go over the total, and has hit 60.68% of those.

The rest of the results are pretty mixed, but all picks (sides and totals) are a cummulative 345-327 (51.34%), which is better than a coin flip...

Here's the link again for anyone interested in poking around: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[Flea Hotel]

Keep on rocking. Your work is appreciated. Those games last night was brutal, I know I'd have hit more threes than some of those morons.

Quick update on my model...

Through 336 games, it is hitting 54.46% on totals.
It has picked 206 of those games to go over the total, and has hit 60.68% of those.

The rest of the results are pretty mixed, but all picks (sides and totals) are a cummulative 345-327 (51.34%), which is better than a coin flip...

Here's the link again for anyone interested in poking around: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[doubledime]

9:00 Rider/Manhattan o149.5 -105
These two teams are both top 40 in possessions per game (77.2 and 76.2), and I think we could see up to 80 possessions tonight. The raw offensive efficiency numbers here aren’t great, but the volume of opportunities should be high. Plus, now that they are in conference these two are averaging between 3 and 5 points per game above their season averages (and allowing more points as well). Kenpom has 75 possessions.

Once again I just posted the same play. I know we look at a lot of the same criteria for our decisions and actually. I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often. (I think you mentioned that a while back.) I will add, that the last 5 games these teams scored more than their season average and points against was also on average higher for Rider. Good luck to both of us.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Keep on rocking. Your work is appreciated. Those games last night was brutal, I know I'd have hit more threes than some of those morons.

Thanks Flea. Good/bad shooting nights happen. I was right about the pace in both games. The teams just couldn't score with the opportunities they had. It happens.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Once again I just posted the same play. I know we look at a lot of the same criteria for our decisions and actually. I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often. (I think you mentioned that a while back.) I will add, that the last 5 games these teams scored more than their season average and points against was also on average higher for Rider. Good luck to both of us.

Always glad to see you on the same play. I think these two really get up and down the court tonight for us.

[Flea Hotel]

Exactly. Both would have hit easily barring the bizarrely bad outside shooting. Pace was right on.

Thanks Flea. Good/bad shooting nights happen. I was right about the pace in both games. The teams just couldn't score with the opportunities they had. It happens.

[Flea Hotel]

We have a term for this in French Canada when you two are on the same play. It's called "un jeu de deux unités"

Always glad to see you on the same play. I think these two really get up and down the court tonight for us.

[readytowinem]

I hate this Manhattan team they have screwed me on sides a few times. I'll try this total and see how that goes. Thanks!

[HeeluvaGuy]

I hate this Manhattan team they have screwed me on sides a few times. I'll try this total and see how that goes. Thanks!

One reason that they're a tough bet ATS (but good for overs) is their foul rate. They commit the most fouls per game and per possession in he NCAA.

Thanks for stopping by and best of luck this weekend!

[dogcity]

Not necessarily saying that " the whole is greater than the sum of the parts"...but having two intelligent opinions on these totals seems very informative...

Cheers guys...

[HeeluvaGuy]

Not necessarily saying that " the whole is greater than the sum of the parts"...but having two intelligent opinions on these totals seems very informative...

Cheers guys...

Be careful whose opinions you're calling intelligent.

In all seriousness though, thanks for the nice words and for stopping by. DD and I have shared a good bit of ideas back and forth, but we don't do things exactly the same way. So I, like you, always like to see us on the same side.

Best of luck this weekend.

[Flea Hotel]

HG, if you don't mind me asking, do you anticipate a lot of plays tomorrow? I'm doing my bi-weekly cashouts on all my books and want to know how much to leave in to cover the plays I tail. TY

Be careful whose opinions you're calling intelligent.

In all seriousness though, thanks for the nice words and for stopping by. DD and I have shared a good bit of ideas back and forth, but we don't do things exactly the same way. So I, like you, always like to see us on the same side.

Best of luck this weekend.

[HeeluvaGuy]

HG, if you don't mind me asking, do you anticipate a lot of plays tomorrow? I'm doing my bi-weekly cashouts on all my books and want to know how much to leave in to cover the plays I tail. TY

I'll be surprised if I have more than 4. I am traveling this weekend and will be limited in the amount of time I have for Saturday's and Sunday's games.

[Flea Hotel]

K Thx.

I'll be surprised if I have more than 4. I am traveling this weekend and will be limited in the amount of time I have for Saturday's and Sunday's games.

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 always tough to lose by the hook, especially when a guy who was 11-13 from the FT line on the night misses one of two with .9 seconds left.

Thread: 47-41 (+3.86u)
Totals only: 45-35

NOTE: For Saturday I only have 2 plays at this point (if overnight lines hold), and they are both noon games.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Two plays so far today:

12:00 Minnesota/Penn St o142 -105
This game Is all about pace. Both teams average 75+ possessions per game, and we should see at least that many today. Both teams have nice defensive numbers, but there should be enough possessions for the offenses to overcome the defenses. Kenpom has 75 possessions.

12:00 N Illinois/Bowling Green o137.5 -110
I think this one gets to 73+ possessions, and at that pace getting over 137 should be fairly easy. The offensive numbers aren’t great on their face, but the defenses are not as good as they look on paper. Kenpom has 69 possessions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Not sure if this is it for the day, but this is the last one for a bit:

7:45 Tennessee St/Morehead St o139 -110
I think we see at least 72 possessions here, which should get us over 140. Tennessee St is not very good offensively, but Morehead St is equally bad (if not worse) defensively. One of the main aspects of this play is the number of free throws I’m expecting. Both teams foul a ton, and Tennessee St is very good at getting to the line. Kenpom has 68 possessions.

[doubledime]

Good luck and safe travels

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks DD. I have another, but am remote so no writeup:

3:30 EMU/Ohio o149 -110

[rankslash]

HeeluvaGuy bro I'm literally 0-5 tailing your picks in the last 3 days. I don't know how I do it, but I always pick up your losing bets. (including 0-3 on the ones shared between you and doubledime). Appreciate your hard work and I hope you finish the season on the positive.

[HeeluvaGuy]

HeeluvaGuy bro I'm literally 0-5 tailing your picks in the last 3 days. I don't know how I do it, but I always pick up your losing bets. (including 0-3 on the ones shared between you and doubledime). Appreciate your hard work and I hope you finish the season on the positive.

Man I hate these stretches. It seems like everyone is having their worst shooting nights of the year in these overs. I don't plan on changing anything because of a cold spell, but I will try to look at the data and see if there's anywhere I can improve. Best of luck the rest of the weekend!

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-3 day on Saturday. I haven't had time to crunch any numbers on what happened, but it looks like terrible shooting in the losses, along with a slow-paced EMU/Ohio game that I was dead wrong about.

Thread: 48-44 (+1.61u)
Totals only: 46-38

[Flea Hotel]

Everyone but the book got killed yesterday HG.

1-3 day on Saturday. I haven't had time to crunch any numbers on what happened, but it looks like terrible shooting in the losses, along with a slow-paced EMU/Ohio game that I was dead wrong about.

Thread: 48-44 (+1.61u)
Totals only: 46-38

[HeeluvaGuy]

Everyone but the book got killed yesterday HG.

Yeah. I'm still looking over yesterday's results for my model, and it looks that way.

[HeeluvaGuy]

4:00 Missouri St/Loyola Chicago u142.5 -105
These are two pretty deliberate teams, and I get a maximum of 68 possessions in this game. However, I think that number could be lower. Either way, I don’t think the offensive efficiencies are good enough to get over 142 despite the above-average points per game and points per possession numbers for both teams. Last season these two played 62 and 68 possession games that finished with 110 and 137 points. Kenpom has 66 possessions.

[doubledime]

Good luck. I hope the first half is so far under that the game cruises to a win.

[HeeluvaGuy]

This might interest some. Here's a chart of game scoring averages last year (blue line) versus this year (orange line). Last year I started charting this back in November or December. This year I didn't start until January.



This is a running average, not scores on any given day.

[SBRMAN23]

Crazy how when I take the over teams can't find the basket then when I take the under teams somehow make everything man

[Flea Hotel]

Superstition and Gambling aren't good bedfellows buddy.

Crazy how when I take the over teams can't find the basket then when I take the under teams somehow make everything man