Helluva day for ya heeluvaguy 3-0 sweep looks sweet!
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9:00 Kent St/Ohio o145 -105
This is another case where I think the defenses may be getting their ok much credit. Both teams rank in the top 80 in defensive points per possession, but they have both played weak offensive teams. I think this one gets to 75 possessions, and at that pace the offenses should be good enough to get us over 145. My model has around 149, and kenpom has 73 possessions (and a 149 total).
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This is one of the overs I will be playing also. Good luck to both of us.9:00 Kent St/Ohio o145 -105
This is another case where I think the defenses may be getting their ok much credit. Both teams rank in the top 80 in defensive points per possession, but they have both played weak offensive teams. I think this one gets to 75 possessions, and at that pace the offenses should be good enough to get us over 145. My model has around 149, and kenpom has 73 possessions (and a 149 total).
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Last one for today:
6:30 W Michigan/Akron u151 -105
Scratching my head at this line. Only 1 of the last 10 meetings between these two has gone over 150 points. I get a game played in the low 70s possession-wise. Despite some decent offensive numbers, I don't think these two can score enough to get over 151 with that number of possessions. Kenpom says 67 possessions.Comment -
Well, The O/U line is at 149 now so it's a no play for me. 150 are a lot of points for a college game. Your bet looks great through. Good luck.9:00 Kent St/Ohio o145 -105
This is another case where I think the defenses may be getting their ok much credit. Both teams rank in the top 80 in defensive points per possession, but they have both played weak offensive teams. I think this one gets to 75 possessions, and at that pace the offenses should be good enough to get us over 145. My model has around 149, and kenpom has 73 possessions (and a 149 total).
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They all look good on paper, huh? Still need the kids to put the ball in the basket (or not when it comes to the unders).
I agree that the over is not a play at 149. However, the average score of a college game this season is 148.4, so 150 isn't THAT high (depending on the teams, etc.).
Regardless, thanks for posting and for the well wishes.Comment -
2-0 night. The Ohio game was a good example of why I think pace and possessions are so important. Kent shot 36.6% (and 8-18 from the FT line) but still managed to put up 67 points for us thanks to the pace of play.
38-32 (+4.56u)
Totals: 36-26
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Great job. The last five mins of that Ohio game was hard to watch, as are a lot of the crappy D1 games. Nevertheless, great stuff.Comment -
Thanks for the picks HG,5-0 last 2 days.Comment -
12:00 Depaul/Seton Hall o140.5 -110
Last season’s games between these two teams finished with 146 and 152 points on 62 and 72 possessions (both games went over). I think we see at least 72 possessions in this one, which should be enough to get us over 140. Good free throw rates offensively and defensively for both teams will help, but I am a little concerned about Seton Hall’s percentage from the stripe. Kenpom has 70 possessions.
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3:30 Mississippi St/LSU u153.5 -105
I agree with Kenpom that this game should see about 72 possessions. At that pace, both teams would have to be far better offensively, and far worse defensively, than their season averages. I don’t see that happening today, especially for the Bulldogs offensively, who are playing their first true road game of the season (believe it or not). My model has 147, and I would be happy with that.
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FYI, I'm working my way through as many games as I can based on start times. At some point I will have to step away and work on the late games as best I can later in the afternoon. I know that's not ideal for some, and it makes it tough if you're trying to manage the number of games you play today, but that's the best I can do with these big Saturday cards.Comment -
4:00 San Diego/Pepperdine u143.5 -110
I should caveat any San Diego play with the fact that they can get hot or cold from 3 and play game that depart wildly from their averages. That said, I get a game with 70 or fewer possessions here (Kenpom has 67). At that pace, I think this stays under 144. Some of Pepperdine’s efficiency stats are skewed because they have played very good offensive teams and bad defensive teams. As long as San Diego doesn’t get hot from three (which is always a possibility in their games), I think these two play a game in the 60s. FWIW, only 1 of the last 10 meetings between these teams has gone over this number.
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Nice run Sir!
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Thanks DD. Let's hope it becomes a run.
Last one for a bit:
4:30 Arkansas St/Coastal Carolina u142 -110
This is an interesting line. Both teams average 72 possessions or so per game, which would normally lead me to pass on this under. However, looking closer, a lot of those possessions have been driven by opponents’ speed on offense. These two are both deliberate on the offensive end, which should lead to a game with 67 or 68 possessions (Kenpom says 68). At that pace, I don’t think these offenses can be efficient enough to get over 142.
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We are matching up on this one. Good luck to both of us!!Thanks DD. Let's hope it becomes a run.
Last one for a bit:
4:30 Arkansas St/Coastal Carolina u142 -110
This is an interesting line. Both teams average 72 possessions or so per game, which would normally lead me to pass on this under. However, looking closer, a lot of those possessions have been driven by opponents’ speed on offense. These two are both deliberate on the offensive end, which should lead to a game with 67 or 68 possessions (Kenpom says 68). At that pace, I don’t think these offenses can be efficient enough to get over 142.
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Sorry for the late post ...
5:00 Troy/Georgia Southern u151.5 -110
I get 71-72 possessions at the most for this one, and at that rate I don't think these offenses can score enough to get over 150.
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Another one within the hour ...
6:00 Ole Miss/Auburn o158 -105
I think this one might get up to 80 possessions or more. These two average 76.8 and 78.4 possessions per game, and they both could go a little faster. I love that both teams live at the free throw line.
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I apologize for these scattered plays. Had to do some things after the morning games started and am playing a little catchup. Writeups are shorter, but these are not less researched.Comment -
We match again.
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Caught a pretty rough beat in the Pepperdine game. 12 points in the final 38 seconds of a double digit game to lose by the hook. Life goes on...Comment -
Brutal afternoon/evening. Coastal game went over with 10 seconds left. Might call it a day the way the luck is running.Comment -
Start fresh SundayComment -
2-4 day, with 2 of the unders losing in the last 10 seconds. Got one back in the Ole Miss game where they scored about 37 points in the last 4 minutes. FWIW, I was pretty close with my possessions predictions for all but the LSU game, which was one of those where everything went against us. My points per possession were not good in those unders though.
Thread: 40-36 (+2.21u)
Totals only: 38-30
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Quick update on my model ...
After 412 plays over the past 5 days, the cummulative record (ATS and totals) is 213-199 (51.7%). Obviously that's nothing exciting, but here are two bright spots:
Totals: 110-95 (53.66%)
Overs: 77-53 (59.23%)
I've calculated the final results each day using the closing lines at scoresandodds for consistency. Here's a link to the predictions and results for anyone interested in looking through it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharingComment
