HG's College Hoops Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:30 Ohio St/Minnesota o139 -105
I get 73+ possessions for this game, which should get this over 140 without much problem. Both teams have nice defensive efficiency numbers, but they appear to be inflated by weaker offensive competition. In conference these two are allowing 10.8 and 7.8 ppg more than they allow on the season. Kenpom has 70 possessions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2:00 Niagara/Rider o146 -110
I think we see at least 74 possessions here, but possibly a few more. Rider averages 76.1 possessions per game, and Niagara isn't far behind at 74.4. The offenses aren't great, but there should be enough shots to get us over 146. Kenpom has 72 possessions.

[Nb4537]

GL today HG

[HeeluvaGuy]

GL today HG

Thank you sir. Best of luck to you as well.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Probably the last play for me today:

4:00 Evansville/Drake o141 -110
Since Drake changed coaches back in early December, the Bulldogs are averaging over 75 possessions per game and 1.09 points per possession. Both of those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages. Evansville is terrific at getting to the line and making their free throws, which will be a big help in getting this one over 141. I'm looking for a game with about 72 possessions. Kenpom has 68.

[doubledime]

Best of luck today

[HeeluvaGuy]

Best of luck today

Thanks DD. After yesterday's rough finishes, I am probably going to go easy on the unders for a bit. I was looking at scoring this year compared to this time last year and scoring is up over 5 points per game this season.

[Fabiodog]

Thanks for keep plugging away

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks for keep plugging away

Takes more than a couple of bad beats to shut things down, but man is it frustrating when it they happen close together.

Thanks for the points!

[Flea Hotel]

People. Those of us who are winning cappers sometimes run cold you know? Last year I was over 62% on NHL totals but I had 30 day run where I went just over 40%. Would you fold AA preflop after losing to something else a couple of times in a row? Sht son, I usually run crazy hot after a little blue period.

Takes more than a couple of bad beats to shut things down, but man is it frustrating when it they happen close together.

Thanks for the points!

[HeeluvaGuy]

People. Those of us who are winning cappers sometimes run cold you know? Last year I was over 62% on NHL totals but I had 30 day run where I went just over 40%. Would you fold AA preflop after losing to something else a couple of times in a row? Sht son, I usually run crazy hot after a little blue period.

Funny you use a poker analogy. I try to make picks that have a lot of "outs." When I'm researching I look for games where multiple things have to go wrong for a loss. That's one reason my volume of plays may be low compared to others.

[Flea Hotel]

The work is solid and from what aspects I can ascertain from your methodology, I'm impressed. I just hate how, it seems of late, every good capper here has to defend their not winning every day to donks who don't post picks, have no threads, and do nothing here to contribute. Whatever. You and DD know the game, I'd rather you number crunching, having fun with your friends and/or family or doing anything than having to tell loss-chasers and action junkies with a six figure IRS/Child Support debt that nobody can win every day.

Funny you use a poker analogy. I try to make picks that have a lot of "outs." When I'm researching I look for games where multiple things have to go wrong for a loss. That's one reason my volume of plays may be low compared to others.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3-0 day. Looks like I had the possessions right for the Ohio St and Niagara games (overestimated the Evansville game, but the teams were more efficient that I expected).

Thread: 43-36 (+5.21u)
Totals only: 41-30

[JTrain]

3-0 day. Looks like I had the possessions right for the Ohio St and Niagara games (overestimated the Evansville game, but the teams were more efficient that I expected).

Thread: 43-36 (+5.21u)
Totals only: 41-30

Just to clarify, the main record includes the totals as well right? So you are 2-6 on non-total plays?

[Nb4537]

Thanks 👏🤑👍

[HeeluvaGuy]

Just to clarify, the main record includes the totals as well right? So you are 2-6 on non-total plays?

That's right. Although I think I may be off by a game somewhere.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like no plays tonight. Had one, but the line has moved too much now. Also had a problem getting my model posted for today. I won't have time to post predictions for today's games before they start, but should be able to generate the lines later tonight for tracking purposes.

Good luck with your action tonight.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like three games tonight:

7:00 Miami (OH)/Ball St o146.5
I get at least 73 possessions here, but I think we could get up to 75 or more. Both teams foul a good bit, and neither defense is very good, so I think we see some decent scoring efficiency. Kenpom has 71 possessions.

7:00 Ohio/Buffalo o150
I don’t see how this game stays under 75 possessions and it has the potential for more. Ohio is one of the few three point shooting teams I trust. They average 39.9% from three. Buffalo also fouls a lot. I’d like a little better free throw shooting from both teams, but there should be enough scoring opportunities to get us over 150. Kenpom has 75 possessions.

7:00 NIU/Kent St o142
This game should see at least 73 possessions and possibly more. The defensive efficiency numbers look pretty good on their face and may be what is keeping this number down, but I think they’re misleading as these teams haven’t played very good offensive teams. 142 isn’t a very big number, and if we get the pace I’m expecting this one should go over it. Kenpom has 70 possessions.

[doubledime]

As you mentioned in my thread, both on Miami O. Good luck to you today!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-1 night thanks to a visit from the OT fairy in the Kent game (the Ohio game almost got to OT also, but finished at 146 on a shot to win with 1 second left).

Thread: 45-37 (+7.11u)
Totals only: 43-31

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Georgia/Ole Miss o149 -105
Ole Miss averages 76.8 possessions per game (#28), and Georgia is a little behind at 72.9. I think we see at least 75 possessions here. At that pace the offenses are good enough to get to at least 150. The only concern here is Georgia’s defense, which has held teams to nearly 8 points below their scoring averages. However, the Bulldogs are surrendering 72.3 ppg in conference play. The fact that both of these teams live at the free throw line will help a lot too. Kenpom has 72 possessions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Tulane/S Florida o139.5 -110
I get 72+ possessions for this one. Based on raw efficiency numbers, this would have a hard time getting to 140, but looking at offensive and defensive schedules faced, I think we'll see more efficient scoring tonight from these two. It also helps that both teams foul a good bit and that the defenses are bad. Kenpom has 68 possessions.

[UNMLOBOFAN51]

I think the Ole Miss line is free money I almost played that myself but with some confirmation I am going to throw down a unit on that.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I think the Ole Miss line is free money I almost played that myself but with some confirmation I am going to throw down a unit on that.

From your lips to God's ears. Best of luck to us!

[Fred The Hammer]

Any feelings on Indiana State/Drake Over 151? I'm thinking of pounding the Over here! Ind St is a more of a defensive team but they're 10-4 Over and Drake is 9-2 Over this year. Drake is terrible defensively and plays at a decent pace. Their last 10 games have avg. 161 ppg with only 1 under 150 pts.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Any feelings on Indiana State/Drake Over 151? I'm thinking of pounding the Over here! Ind St is a more of a defensive team but they're 10-4 Over and Drake is 9-2 Over this year. Drake is terrible defensively and plays at a decent pace. Their last 10 games have avg. 161 ppg with only 1 under 150 pts.

I played the over in Drake's last game. Since the coaching change they have gone with a lot more tempo. But it looks like the books have adjusted some. When I looked at this one the line was 153, which was too high. 151 is close for me, but I don't trust the ISU offense. Good luck if you play it.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 Mercer/Samford u143 -110
I'm just 4-5 playing unders since January 1, but I can't pass this one up. Mercer ranks 346 in possessions per game. Part of that is because they are deliberate. The other part is because they are a good offensive rebounding team. As a result, I think we could see a 62-63 possession game here. At that pace the teams would have to average over 1.14 points per possession to go over 144, something I don't think they can do. That said, I do worry about Mercer's fouls and Samford's offensive pop at home. Kenpom has 62 possessions.

[rankslash]

I think the Ole Miss line is free money I almost played that myself but with some confirmation I am going to throw down a unit on that.

I've never won a 'free money' bet. Ugly game so far.

[Fred The Hammer]

I played the over in Drake's last game. Since the coaching change they have gone with a lot more tempo. But it looks like the books have adjusted some. When I looked at this one the line was 153, which was too high. 151 is close for me, but I don't trust the ISU offense. Good luck if you play it.

Thanks for the feedback....I did play Over 150 but smallish. You're right about Larry Bird's old school. I'm a Hoosier and ISU always plays kind of slow. 42-33 though at half so maybe so far so good?

[Fred The Hammer]

I didn't play it tonite but Pitt is a team to watch for Overs! They're now on a 7-2 Over streak. If you can put 40+ in a half vs Lville then you can score!

[doubledime]

8:00 Mercer/Samford u143 -110
I'm just 4-5 playing unders since January 1, but I can't pass this one up. Mercer ranks 346 in possessions per game. Part of that is because they are deliberate. The other part is because they are a good offensive rebounding team. As a result, I think we could see a 62-63 possession game here. At that pace the teams would have to average over 1.14 points per possession to go over 144, something I don't think they can do. That said, I do worry about Mercer's fouls and Samford's offensive pop at home. Kenpom has 62 possessions.

Of course I liked this one the most, but nice night.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Of course I liked this one the most, but nice night.

Thanks DD. That Ole Miss game was a clunker, but that happens. Nice to have all of the bad luck in one game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-1 night. The loss was puzzling, but sometimes they go differently than planned. The other two games were mostly as expected except that we had to dodge some very good three point and free throw shooting in the Mercer game. I had a typo in my units yesterday so I'll clean that up here.

Thread: 47-38 (+7.06)
Totals only: 45-32

[Cordoba25]

I've never won a 'free money' bet. Ugly game so far.

Funny thing is neither do the OPs of those "free money" wagers... They almost never win.

It's fascinating to observe them mush themselves like that... Unless of course you're on the same side as them and then it's infuriating.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 Wright St/UW-Green Bay o151 -110
Green Bay is one of the fastest teams in the nation, and averages 80.3 possessions per game (#4). Wright St is nowhere near that fast, but Scott Nagy has brought a little more tempo to the Raiders this season. As a result, I see a 75+ possession game here. Both teams are good at getting to the line, and I think Green Bay will score a lot of points off of turnovers as Wright St doesn’t protect the ball very well. We will probably need some decent shooting from Wright St, however, which is always an area of concern for me. Kenpom has 76 possessions.