HG's College Hoops Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 yesterday. Both teams shot over 50% and combined for 29-35 (82%) free throw shooting despite being sub 70% FT shooting teams on the season. They had a combined 1.17 points per possession, which was about 10% above their season averages. They scored 148 points on just 63 possessions.

Thread: 48-45 (+.56u)
Totals only: 46-39

[HeeluvaGuy]

Crazy how when I take the over teams can't find the basket then when I take the under teams somehow make everything man

Superstition and Gambling aren't good bedfellows buddy.

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I don't think this is superstition. This has been a crazy run of teams departing significantly from averages and tendencies, and I have posted about some of them. When that happens, I tend to lose because I do expect teams to operate within certain ranges.

I will also add that I typically do not tail others' picks unless I have some idea where they're coming from. That's why I offer some of the basis for my reasoning on nearly every play. Readers can determine for themselves whether they like a certain play or think I'm full of shit. As others can attest, I'm more than happy to discuss my plays (and others), as well as general handicapping strategies.

Here's to a better week!

[doubledime]

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I don't think this is superstition. This has been a crazy run of teams departing significantly from averages and tendencies, and I have posted about some of them. When that happens, I tend to lose because I do expect teams to operate within certain ranges.

I will also add that I typically do not tail others' picks unless I have some idea where they're coming from. That's why I offer some of the basis for my reasoning on nearly every play. Readers can determine for themselves whether they like a certain play or think I'm full of shit. As others can attest, I'm more than happy to discuss my plays (and others), as well as general handicapping strategies.

Here's to a better week!

In my opinion you have some of the best analysis on the forum. Sometimes I wonder how you have the time and/or patience.

The knowledgeable people know this is a marathon and not a sprint. Keep up the good work.

[HeeluvaGuy]

In my opinion you have some of the best analysis on the forum. Sometimes I wonder how you have the time and/or patience.

The knowledgeable people know this is a marathon and not a sprint. Keep up the good work.

Thanks DD. I consider that a huge compliment. I think we finish the year positive for sure.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Syracuse/North Carolina o152.5 -105
Syracuse is playing a bit faster than in the past and can be sped up a little more this year than before. I think this game gets up to at least 75 possessions, which should be enough for these capable offenses. Kenpom has 73 possessions.

[Flea Hotel]

Sorry if you misunderstood. I'll try to nuance it differently.

Anyone who feels they are always on the wrong side of a bet due to an individual curse, bad luck or anything non-analytic and objective, in my opinion, shouldn't bet sports. I play a lot of poker. If someone asks me, how has you year gone, I check the last half million hands and calculate the ROI and answer based off of that number. I guess I'm was implying to that individual that if you believe too much (or at all) in a personalized theme of bad luck, betting in any form is probably not a good idea if the word "always" is used in negative connotation.

Hopefully that was more clear. Personally, I like what you do and have better things to do or care about than comment on my own personal betting trends in a capper's thread. I did comment that I found it odd that everyone was giving doubledime, a capper who I respect a lot, so much kudos for his first half analysis when until I mentioned it, hadn't given it any thought in a single post before I spoke of the topic. Doesn't matter long term, no pun intended. I'm more interested in winners than whining.

<br>
<br>

I don't think this is superstition. This has been a crazy run of teams departing significantly from averages and tendencies, and I have posted about some of them. When that happens, I tend to lose because I do expect teams to operate within certain ranges.

I will also add that I typically do not tail others' picks unless I have some idea where they're coming from. That's why I offer some of the basis for my reasoning on nearly every play. Readers can determine for themselves whether they like a certain play or think I'm full of shit. As others can attest, I'm more than happy to discuss my plays (and others), as well as general handicapping strategies.

Here's to a better week!

[doubledime]

HG Everyday I look at you spread sheet. First of all, thank you! Secondly, I know the the last time you talked about it, the totals were doing well. When you look at the performance of your totals, is that for all totals, even ones that may only have a .1 variance? Have you ever analyzed if the difference is larger, if there is a better win percentage? Not that you don't have enough to do already.

[HeeluvaGuy]

HG Everyday I look at you spread sheet. First of all, thank you! Secondly, I know the the last time you talked about it, the totals were doing well. When you look at the performance of your totals, is that for all totals, even ones that may only have a .1 variance? Have you ever analyzed if the difference is larger, if there is a better win percentage? Not that you don't have enough to do already.

In previous years I did try to look at different filters, but I made a slight modification this season and haven't tracked any filters other than over/under. If you look at the Results tab, you can see the breakdown of how a few splits are doing. Overs are doing quite well. But you're right, I just don't have the time right now to do a more detailed breakdown.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Last 2 for me today:

5:30 Portland St/Northern Arizona o156.5 -110
Pace and terrible defense are the factors here. I think this one could see 77 possessions, and given how terrible these defenses are, that should be enough to get over 156. This game was scheduled last week, but was moved to today due to weather. Both teams played Saturday, so the weird scheduling could affect scoring. But neither team relies too heavily on the three and both teams should be able to score inside easily if they choose. Kenpom has 73 possessions.

7:00 Marist/Niagara o148 -110
Another matchup of terrible defenses. Kenpom has this at 67 possessions, but I think it gets up to 73+, which should get us over 148.

[doubledime]

Well done!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry if you misunderstood. I'll try to nuance it differently.

Anyone who feels they are always on the wrong side of a bet due to an individual curse, bad luck or anything non-analytic and objective, in my opinion, shouldn't bet sports. I play a lot of poker. If someone asks me, how has you year gone, I check the last half million hands and calculate the ROI and answer based off of that number. I guess I'm was implying to that individual that if you believe too much (or at all) in a personalized theme of bad luck, betting in any form is probably not a good idea if the word "always" is used in negative connotation.

Hopefully that was more clear. Personally, I like what you do and have better things to do or care about than comment on my own personal betting trends in a capper's thread. I did comment that I found it odd that everyone was giving doubledime, a capper who I respect a lot, so much kudos for his first half analysis when until I mentioned it, hadn't given it any thought in a single post before I spoke of the topic. Doesn't matter long term, no pun intended. I'm more interested in winners than whining.

It's all good Flea. Appreciate your thoughts and comments. Glad you're part of the thread.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well done!!

Thanks DD. Always nice to have a few break your way, especially after a cold spell.

And thanks for the points Fabiodog.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3-0 night where the bounces went our way. For example, Marist (a 33.8% 3-point shooting team) went 12-20 from downtown. And the UNC game only had 68 possessions, but Carolina was extremely efficient. The NAU game also looked bleak until the final 3 or 4 minutes.

Thread: 51-45 (+3.56u)
Totals only: 49-39

[cooperman]

win by a 1/2 or 100 , it all looks good in the bank. Well done. these are the type of nights that can springboard to a hot streak. BOL

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 Miami (OH)/Northern Illinois o137 -110
The offenses here aren’t pretty, but the pace and free throw line should get us over the number in this one. I get 74 possessions for this one, and at that pace the teams only need to average .932 points per possession for this to go over (1.003 is average and both teams average over .932 PPP). Free throws and bad defense are how I think the offenses will be a little more efficient tonight. Kenpom has 69 possessions.

[doubledime]

8:00 Miami (OH)/Northern Illinois o137 -110
The offenses here aren’t pretty, but the pace and free throw line should get us over the number in this one. I get 74 possessions for this one, and at that pace the teams only need to average .932 points per possession for this to go over (1.003 is average and both teams average over .932 PPP). Free throws and bad defense are how I think the offenses will be a little more efficient tonight. Kenpom has 69 possessions.

Just posted the same game. I hope that is not bad luck.

BTW: I am 2 time zones ahead of you and wake up relatively early, yet you beat me to the punch today.

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Just posted the same game. I hope that is not bad luck.

BTW: I am 2 time zones ahead of you and wake up relatively early, yet you beat me to the punch today.

Good luck

Haha. I actually got through today's card yesterday, so I was a bit ahead of the game today.

[cooperman]

Early bird gets the worm. Bring home the winner

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 last night. Just an ugly all around game from both sides.

Thread: 51-46 (+2.46u)
Totals only: 49-40

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 South Dakota/Oral Roberts o150.5 -110
I don’t expect a blazing tempo here (73 or 74 possessions), but there is a lot to like in this matchup. For starters, the six games played between these two totaled (most recent first): 170, 178, 153, 145, 161, and 146. South Dakota is without its center, and Oral Roberts’ Albert Owens has scored 21, 24, 22, and 26 in his last four games. During that span, ORU has allowed over 90 points per game. Hoping to see more terrible defense by ORU while Owens has a big night down low on the offensive end. Kenpom has 71 possessions.

[thekoreanmang]

Keep it going, HG.

[HeeluvaGuy]

11:00 Colorado/Washington o155 -105
Two good offenses here in a game that should reach 75+ possessions. Colorado is good at getting to the line, and the Huskies aren't afraid to put people there. I worry some about Colorado's defense, but UW is more efficient at home offensively, and CU is less efficient defensively on the road, so I think this one can get into the high 70s or 80s. Kenpom has 71 possessions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Missouri St/Indiana St o139 -110
I get 68+ possessions here, which should be enough. I believe ISU's offense is a little better than its efficiency numbers indicate.

[cooperman]

BOL 2night HG cash em!

[Flea Hotel]

BOL!

P.S. BOL

[HeeluvaGuy]

Haha. Thanks gents. Same to you.

[cooperman]

Go to love when OT sends you to a . Congrats brother!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Go to love when OT sends you to a . Congrats brother!

Thanks coop! The phrase "better to be lucky than good" comes to mind for that late game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3-0 night thanks to a serious gift from the OT fairy. CU/UW scored 34 points in OT to get us over the number in that one. A win is a win, right?

Thread: 54-46 (+5.46u)
Totals only: 52-40

[Flea Hotel]

You and I both went perfect, Ayo went 4-1, I think DD did ok. If only every night could be so easy.

3-0 night thanks to a serious gift from the OT fairy. CU/UW scored 34 points in OT to get us over the number in that one. A win is a win, right?

Thread: 54-46 (+5.46u)
Totals only: 52-40

[doubledime]

Nicely done!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

You and I both went perfect, Ayo went 4-1, I think DD did ok. If only every night could be so easy.

Those are the fun nights. Congrats on your sweep!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks DD. I know you have this link, but for others who may be interested, this link will take you to my NCAAB model predictions and results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

This is a power rankings based model, so it is actually different from what I have been doing with totals in this thread. The results are based off of closing lines, so my only update will be once the lines close.

For sides, the lines are all set based off of the home team. Example: today MTSU is favored by 12 on the road, so the "Current Line" is "12." Iowa is favored at home by 1.5, so the "Current Line" is -1.5. A positive number in the "Delta" column means that the model favors the road team ATS; a negative number means it favors the home team.

Through 1,064 total plays (sides and totals) since January 3 (when I started this season), the model is hitting 52.16% with no filters. Totals have a 283-251 (53%) record, and Overs are 173-127 (57.67%).

This model does not take into account injuries, suspensions, returning players, etc. As a result, I never recommend blindly using it for picks. However, I find it to be a useful tool as part of an overall strategy.

Happy hunting!

[doubledime]

Thanks DD. I know you have this link, but for others who may be interested, this link will take you to my NCAAB model predictions and results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

This is a power rankings based model, so it is actually different from what I have been doing with totals in this thread. The results are based off of closing lines, so my only update will be once the lines close.

For sides, the lines are all set based off of the home team. Example: today MTSU is favored by 12 on the road, so the "Current Line" is "12." Iowa is favored at home by 1.5, so the "Current Line" is -1.5. A positive number in the "Delta" column means that the model favors the road team ATS; a negative number means it favors the home team.

Through 1,064 total plays (sides and totals) since January 3 (when I started this season), the model is hitting 52.16% with no filters. Totals have a 283-251 (53%) record, and Overs are 173-127 (57.67%).

This model does not take into account injuries, suspensions, returning players, etc. As a result, I never recommend blindly using it for picks. However, I find it to be a useful tool as part of an overall strategy.

Happy hunting!

Thanks HG. I check it everyday. 57.67% over winners over 300 games! You have to respect that.

[HeeluvaGuy]

A little behind today. Might have another later. BOL all!

7:30 Rice/Louisiana Tech o154.5 -110
I get 73+ possessions for this game, which isn’t a lot for a game in the mid 150s. However, these are two pretty efficient offenses (1.104 and 1.053 ppp). The potential pitfall here is the Louisiana Tech defense, which has great efficiency numbers. However, the Bulldogs have faced a very weak offensive slate. I also like that Rice gets to the FT line frequently and fouls a lot. Kenpom has 72 possessions.

7:30 SIU Edwardsville/SE Missouri St o142 -110
This one should see 73+ possessions as well. The weak link here is the Edwardsville offense, but the pace and defenses should be bad enough to allow enough easy buckets to get us over 142. We should also see a fair amount of free throws here as well. Kenpom has 70 possessions.

10:00 Southern Utah/Idaho o150 -110
This game features two teams that foul and get fouled a lot. A lot. Their offensive FT rates rank 38 and 76, and their defensive FT rates allowed rank 186 and 349. That should lead to a few extra possessions, and I have this game at 74+. Southern Utah is also one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Kenpom has 70 possessions.