HG's College Hoops Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

Curious as to why/how you're not on the Kansas-Kentucky OVER? These 2 teams average 15 seconds per possession = about 160 possession (or 80 as you would say) for the game. Both KU & UK avg. >1 PPP (actually I think both are closer to 1.15 PPP). I calculated 187 total, so the 168/169 total o/u is a no brainer over to me. Thoughts?

Simple. I haven't gotten that far yet.

So many games...

FWIW, I say 80 possessions, for example, because both teams have the same number of possessions in a game +/- 1 (at most). I'm sure you understand this, but some don't realize that's how this type of possession analysis works.

[HeeluvaGuy]

4:15 SIU Edwardsville/Eastern Illinois o139 -110
It’s tough to back two teams as offensively challenged as these two, but the pace is good and the defenses are bad. I get 73+ possessions here, which should be enough to get these two to 140+ points. Edwardsville is at or near the top in FT rate, and the Panthers foul a lot, so that should help mitigate some of the bad offense here. Kenpom has 70 possessions.

[Louisvillekid1]

Simple. I haven't gotten that far yet.

So many games...

FWIW, I say 80 possessions, for example, because both teams have the same number of possessions in a game +/- 1 (at most). I'm sure you understand this, but some don't realize that's how this type of possession analysis works.

That's the only way I ever ran the numbers

on mobile or would bold "some don't realize...."

write on it when you have timr

[HeeluvaGuy]

Curious as to why/how you're not on the Kansas-Kentucky OVER? These 2 teams average 15 seconds per possession = about 160 possession (or 80 as you would say) for the game. Both KU & UK avg. >1 PPP (actually I think both are closer to 1.15 PPP). I calculated 187 total, so the 168/169 total o/u is a no brainer over to me. Thoughts?

Had to do some stuff and finally got to this game. Using raw numbers, KU averages 73.7 possessions per game, and UK averages 78.8. That said, I believe both teams can (and probably will) play faster today for the simple reason that their opponent plays fast (not sure if I've mentioned it here before, but this is what I think of as the compounding effect of like styles - I can elaborate more at another time). And you're right that both teams are ridiculously efficient on offense at 1.171 (UK) and 1.148 (KU) PPP.

But offensive efficiency is only one side of the coin. I also look at defensive efficiencies. Here, both teams allow under 1 PPP on defense. So which one prevails here? Beats me. One thing I look at to try to answer that question is Kenpom's offensive and defensive SOS numbers, but those don't really help here either.

FWIW, my power ranking based number on this game (separate from my possession analysis) is 158.3. Looking at possessions, however, I get about the same on the low end, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes over the number. Bottom line for me is that there's enough conflicting data to keep me away. BOL to you though. I'm looking forward to watching this one.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sigh... 2-2 start. Three more for me tonight. Sorry no writeups, but I want to watch this KU-UK game. Not drinking yet. About to start.

9:00 Idaho/Montana o138.5 -110
9:30 Oregon/Colorado o144 -105
10:00 Portland St/Sacramento St o155 -110

[slamuels2021]

Smart man. Finish the capping first then kick back and throw down some cold ones. Good luck on the games!

Sigh... 2-2 start. Three more for me tonight. Sorry no writeups, but I want to watch this KU-UK game. Not drinking yet. About to start.

9:00 Idaho/Montana o138.5 -110
9:30 Oregon/Colorado o144 -105
10:00 Portland St/Sacramento St o155 -110

[DOM_Toretto]

Had to do some stuff and finally got to this game. Using raw numbers, KU averages 73.7 possessions per game, and UK averages 78.8. That said, I believe both teams can (and probably will) play faster today for the simple reason that their opponent plays fast (not sure if I've mentioned it here before, but this is what I think of as the compounding effect of like styles - I can elaborate more at another time). And you're right that both teams are ridiculously efficient on offense at 1.171 (UK) and 1.148 (KU) PPP.

But offensive efficiency is only one side of the coin. I also look at defensive efficiencies. Here, both teams allow under 1 PPP on defense. So which one prevails here? Beats me. One thing I look at to try to answer that question is Kenpom's offensive and defensive SOS numbers, but those don't really help here either.

FWIW, my power ranking based number on this game (separate from my possession analysis) is 158.3. Looking at possessions, however, I get about the same on the low end, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes over the number. Bottom line for me is that there's enough conflicting data to keep me away. BOL to you though. I'm looking forward to watching this one.

Good work. Wish I saw this before I bet the over. I guess bottom line is more credit is due to these teams' defenses!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good work. Wish I saw this before I bet the over. I guess bottom line is more credit is due to these teams' defenses!

We'll see. I think things pick up in the second half. Just took o85 2h. Not a play for this thread, but I like it.

[cooperman]

Both teams playing ridiculously fast in the KU/KY game just like everyone thought. Both teams playing out of control fast. They are passing instead of setting up and shooting b/c they are out of control. It is almost as if they are afraid of each other. I see guys who normally would stop and pop a 7 footer passing to a guy who would normally take an open 3. Instead of the open 3 he passes to a guy who isn't expecting a pass. Now this guy takes an off balance shot b/c he was never ready to shoot. This happens a lot in the match ups of 2 high tempo teams. Now we will see 2 of the better coaches settle their teams down. I wouldn't be surprised to see near 100 points in the 2nd half

[HeeluvaGuy]

Both teams playing ridiculously fast in the KU/KY game just like everyone thought. Both teams playing out of control fast. They are passing instead of setting up and shooting b/c they are out of control. It is almost as if they are afraid of each other. I see guys who normally would stop and pop a 7 footer passing to a guy who would normally take an open 3. Instead of the open 3 he passes to a guy who isn't expecting a pass. Now this guy takes an off balance shot b/c he was never ready to shoot. This happens a lot in the match ups of 2 high tempo teams. Now we will see 2 of the better coaches settle their teams down. I wouldn't be surprised to see near 100 points in the 2nd half

That's pretty much what I see. Game won't slow down, but nerves will. Kansas also won't be 0-8 from three in the second half. Graham is ready to get on track.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Smart man. Finish the capping first then kick back and throw down some cold ones. Good luck on the games!

Yes sir. One of the great things about sports betting (as opposed to poker, etc.) is that you can get your bet in and get hammered with no adverse consequences.

[Flea Hotel]

Well, most people I know who double down on late night bets chasing loses are usually quite intoxicated when they do it...

Yes sir. One of the great things about sports betting (as opposed to poker, etc.) is that you can get your bet in and get hammered with no adverse consequences.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well, most people I know who double down on late night bets chasing loses are usually quite intoxicated when they do it...

That's what roulette wheels are for

[Cardinals01]

2-1 on late plays, nice job. Thanks for sharing. Glad Portland State game went to OT, foul with 2 seconds left in OT got the W instead of push.

[cooperman]

Well, most people I know who double down on late night bets chasing loses are usually quite intoxicated when they do it...

That's what roulette wheels are for

That's what the casino big wheel and Casino War is for

[cooperman]

Nice job tonight. On da plus side!

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-1 on late plays, nice job. Thanks for sharing. Glad Portland State game went to OT, foul with 2 seconds left in OT got the W instead of push.

I turned everything off when I was sure the Sac St game was under in regulation. Pleasant surprise but not how I drew it up. Better to be lucky than good ...

[HeeluvaGuy]

4-3 on Saturday. Looks like I'm over estimating possessions a bit (even on the under). Thankfully we got bailed out by OT in a couple of games late.

Thread: 65-57 (+2.27u)
Totals only: 63-52

[HeeluvaGuy]

4:00 Wright St/Illinois Chicago o145.5 -105
The offenses here aren’t great, but the pace should be pretty good and the defenses are mediocre at best. I get 73+ possessions; kenpom has 74. I don’t love Wright St’s heavy reliance on the three, but both teams are good at getting to the line. The Raiders were 3-28 from three against Valpo on Friday night. I don’t try to predict shooting percentages, but I would be surprised if they’re anywhere near that bad today.

[doubledime]

4:00 Wright St/Illinois Chicago o145.5 -105
The offenses here aren’t great, but the pace should be pretty good and the defenses are mediocre at best. I get 73+ possessions; kenpom has 74. I don’t love Wright St’s heavy reliance on the three, but both teams are good at getting to the line. The Raiders were 3-28 from three against Valpo on Friday night. I don’t try to predict shooting percentages, but I would be surprised if they’re anywhere near that bad today.

Good luck. As I like to say.... "How can you go wrong on "Wright" street"!

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-0 today. They may still be playing, but Wright St/UIC went over at about the 5 minute mark. Nice to have an easy one to finish the weekend.

Thread: 66-57 (+3.27u)
Totals only: 64-52

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Georgia St/South Alabama o142 -110
Not a lot of time row wrote today. I get 72+ possessions. They played to a 77-78 score on Jan 7 in a game that had 76 possessions.

[doubledime]

9:00 Georgia St/South Alabama o142 -110
Not a lot of time row wrote today. I get 72+ possessions. They played to a 77-78 score on Jan 7 in a game that had 76 possessions.

I kind of knew you would be on this one too. Good luck to both of us

[HeeluvaGuy]

I kind of knew you would be on this one too. Good luck to both of us

Did you know I would type the post with my elbows?!? Sheesh!

BOL tonight!

[SBRMAN23]

USA zero pts in the last 5mins of play lmfao im glad im not in charge of a team I would fire a coach on the spot for some inept bs like that wow

[SBRMAN23]

Lets hope they keep fouling and slow things down brother

[SBRMAN23]

10 missed fts betwen them USA shooting 40percent we only need 77 second half could be a lot less but they both they played horrible 1st half. Lets have a high scoring 2nd half boys cheers

[HeeluvaGuy]

FT shooting is the only real problem here. A collective 7-17. Averages would put them at 11-17, which would put us at 71 points. No way to know who will/won't shoot well on a given night. But 67 at the half of a 142 number isn't bad. (Except that they scored 8 in the first minute.)

[SBRMAN23]

FT shooting is the only real problem here. A collective 7-17. Averages would put them at 11-17, which would put us at 71 points. No way to know who will/won't shoot well on a given night. But 67 at the half of a 142 number isn't bad. (Except that they scored 8 in the first minute.)

yea i saw that start to the game crazy lets still cash this shyt

[HeeluvaGuy]

Also, if anyone's interested, it looks like there were 34 possessions in the first half, which puts the offensive efficiency (collectively) right at their averages. The quick and easy way to calculate possessions is FGA + turnovers + ((FTA/2)-1) - offensive rebounds. It's an estimation because of the free throws, and both teams should have the same number of possessions +/- 1 each half, so sometimes you need to adjust up or down a possession or two.

The fact that Georgia St is way above its average offensive efficiency and USA is way below its is one reason why I think there is more margin for error in betting totals.

[SBRMAN23]

Cash that shyt bang bang

[doubledime]

Well done

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well done

You as well

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-0 night. Parade to the foul line in the second half helped a bunch.

Thread: 67-58 (+4.27u)
Totals only: 65-52

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry. Not sure if/when I'll be able to get to today's games. Maybe in a few hours, but possibly no plays for me today. BOL to all!