Very nice run, I knew it was just a matter of time! As always the best analysis. 
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7:00 UT Arlington/Georgia Southern u158.5 -105
I'll be honest, this is not my favorite kind of play. I get 74 possessions on the high end for this one, which puts it around 150. However, these two teams can get up and down the court and are capable of putting up 80 each. That said, I think they stay under 158 tonight, but it will be stressful.
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7:00 Florida St -18 -105
This BC team is better than in recent years, but this is a bad spot for the Eagles. FSU is off of two straight road losses and is looking to get back on track for the last two weeks of the season. BC will likely try to run with the Noles, which will give FSU more opportunities to extend a lead. I look for this one to end with a 20+ point margin.
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7:00 Texas St/Georgia St o128.5 -105
I have 65 possessions as the floor for this game. Ron Hunter has Georgia St playing considerably faster this year than in the past, and I think they'll be able to play fast enough to squeeze a few extra possessions out of Texas St. I wish these teams shot FTs a little better, but even with the way they shoot I get this one over 130.
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2-1 night. The only game I was really right about was FSU. Dodged some very hot shooting in the Georgia Southern game to get the under. Texas St/Georgia St was an unwatchable mess.
Thread: 88-72 (+9.24u)
Totals only: 84-67
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another nice night . WTGComment -
7:00 Eastern Michigan/Ball St o148.5 -110
These two played to an 88-80 final with 79 possessions in their first meeting. I have the pace a little lower, at 74+ for tonight. However, I could see a higher paced game. Both teams are on three game over streaks, and the over is 20-3 in Ball St games this season.
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Glad to see we are on the same side today. Good luck7:00 Eastern Michigan/Ball St o148.5 -110
These two played to an 88-80 final with 79 possessions in their first meeting. I have the pace a little lower, at 74+ for tonight. However, I could see a higher paced game. Both teams are on three game over streaks, and the over is 20-3 in Ball St games this season.
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Up to 152.5 alreadyComment -
1-0 night. That was about as lucky as they come. We needed 12 points in the last minute and got 14.
Thread: 89-72 (10.24u)
Totals only: 85-67
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7:00 DePaul/Georgetown o141.5 -105
I get 71+ possessions for this game, which should be enough to get us over 141. As always, DePaul's ability to score is a bit of a concern, but the Hoyas should be capable of carrying most of the load for this one. These two played to a 76-73 final in 72 possessions earlier in the season.
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9:00 Oklahoma St/Kansas St o149.5 -105
Scratching my head at this line. Kenpom and Massey both have this at 158, and my power ratings based model has 157. These two played a 96-88 game in Stillwater earlier this year in a game that had 78 possessions. I doubt we get that high tonight in Manhattan, but 150+ is certainly doable for these two.
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Stay in the heater mode!Comment -
8:00 North Dakota St -2 -109
8:00 North Dakota St/Oral Roberts o145.5 -110
I rarely take two positions in one game, but I like both of these. The Bison are playing for a chance to win the Summit League; Oral Roberts is in the league cellar. So I'll back the better team with real motivation over the home squad here, even on Senior Night for ORU. Oral Roberts is awful defensively, so I expect NDSU to find some easy scoring opportunities. Albert Owens is an inside presence for ORU that NDSU had had trouble containing in the past. The Bison did win the first meeting by 10, however. Tonight will likely be closer, but a 3+ point win should be in the cards. ETA: the over is 34-14 in these teams' conference games this season.
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1-2-1 night. Three outcomes were tough ... DePaul/GTown was tied 65-65 when a foul was called with .2 seconds left and the game ended 67-65 ... ORU player hits a 35-footer at the buzzer down 5 to cut the lead to 2 at the buzzer ... somehow OSU/K-State can't muster 6 points in the last 2 minutes. Sucks to have a losing night, but we've had some close winners lately too.
Thread: 90-74 (+8.14u)
Totals only: 86-69
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It's extra hard to swallow when there were multiple opportunities to be a plus night. Still, the best analysis!
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It's a fickle game. 1-2-1 could have been 4-0 with just three different plays. But like I said, we've had a reasonable amount of good breaks recently, so no crying. As always, thanks for the kind words and BOL today!
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8:00 South Dakota/Western Illinois o146 -110
A little crunched for time right now, so no writeup.
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Here's to continued success
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1-0 tonight with a comfy winner.
Thread: 91-74 (+9.14u)
Totals only: 87-69
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12:00 Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan o137.5 -110
My most conservative estimate for this game is 69 possessions, which should be enough to get us over 137. With the exception of NIU's surprising performance against CMU on Thursday, these defenses have been some lately. I expect to see a lot of fouls, which I hope will boost the possessions and efficiency a bit. NIU won the first meeting 81-69 on 67 possessions.
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3:30 Youngstown St/Cleveland St u146 -105
Nine of the last 10 meetings between these two have gone under, and all of the past 11 games have finished below 146 points. These two played earlier this season to a 67-64 final on 68 possessions. My high estimate for possessions here is 73, which should still keep this under 146.
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8:00 North Dakota St +103
NDSU enters the day in a tie for first place in the Summit League with South Dakota, who is on the road at IUPUI. Omaha is in a tie for third in the conference with no chance of catching NDSU or South Dakota because this is the last game of the regular season. I'm backing the Bison, who have the greater motivation. They are also much better defensively than the Mavericks, and I think that will be the difference. NDSU won earlier by 12 at home. I expect this one to be close though on Senior Day for Omaha.
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Maybe I'm being too cautious, but these may be my only plays today. BOL everyone!
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2-1 Saturday. Got the totals, but missed the side.
Thread: 93-75 (+10.14u)
Totals only: 89-69
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2:00 George Mason/George Washington u142.5 -105
My best estimate for this game is no more than 68 possessions, which should put it under 140. However, these two did play an 87-68 game on 73 possessions earlier this season. At that pace, the under would be in trouble. But I think we'll see a slower game than last time, and with any luck not quite as many FTs (55 last time). Historically, these two have generally played lower scoring games, with only 2 of the last 9 going over 142. This number would be the highest total set for any of those games if it finishes above 141.
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2:00 Louisville -9 -108
Coming off of a huge emotional win last week, Syracuse has to go to Louisville to face a Cardinals team off of a big loss at UNC. Louisville is terrific defensively at home, and I think Syracuse will struggle to keep up scoring-wise. The Cardinals have an enormous advantage on the offensive glass, and that could be the difference here.
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8:30 Washington St +128
This is a bit of a departure from my typical plays. This play is based largely on the fact that today is Senior Day for Wazzu's four senior starters. This group has played through some pretty lean years, and they should want to go out with a win. Wazzu beat UW 79-74 in Seattle earlier in the season, so this isn't much of a stretch. UW has 2 wins away from home all season: 1 neutral site, and one at Seattle. Looking for Josh Hawkison to have a nice night and go out with a win at home in what is probably the last winnable game of the season for Wazzu.
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2-1 on Sunday with the +128 dog pulling out a close one (and a cap tip to Markelle Fultz for missing the game).
Thread: 95-76 (+11.37u)
Totals only: 89-70
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Looking doubtful that I'll have any plays tonight. BOL on your action!
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