HG's College Hoops Thread

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-27-17, 05:51 PM

One play:

8:00 Georgia St/Arkansas St o139.5 -108
I have this one at 70+ possessions, which should be sufficient to get us to at least 140 points. Hoping to see a lot of free throws as well (though I wish both teams shot better).

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-27-17, 07:36 PM

Sorry. This is Georgia Southern not Georgia State

**dajoker** · 02-27-17, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Sorry. This is Georgia Southern not Georgia State

Georgia Southern is playing Ark Little Rock and that total is sitting at 143. The Georgia St line matches what you have above.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-27-17, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by dajoker

Georgia Southern is playing Ark Little Rock and that total is sitting at 143. The Georgia St line matches what you have above.

Thx. You're right. Doing too many things at once.

**cooperman** · 02-27-17, 10:05 PM

banging out winners. Nice Job.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-28-17, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by cooperman

banging out winners. Nice Job.

Thanks coop!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-28-17, 08:12 AM

1-0 last night

Thread: 96-76 (+12.37u)
Totals only: 90-70

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-28-17, 11:40 AM

8:30 Ohio St/Penn St o143.5 -103
I get 72+ possessions here, which should be enough to get us over 143. It's senior night in University Park, but there are no seniors on the roster, so any distraction should be minimal. I think this one has the potential for more possessions, but I wish these teams shot more FTs.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-28-17, 05:32 PM

Two more for tonight. No time to write, but a word of caution on these ... they're both senior nights with significant seniors on both home teams. Sometimes those things get weird.

9:00 Oklahoma St/Iowa St o160 -103
10:00 Fresno St/Boise St o147 -105

**cooperman** · 02-28-17, 05:50 PM

Good luck tonight. With ya on the ok st over. Not sure why the # dropped 4 pts from the opener before going back up

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-28-17, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by cooperman

Good luck tonight. With ya on the ok st over. Not sure why the # dropped 4 pts from the opener before going back up

Glad we're on the same side. You got a better number than me. Hope it doesn't matter.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-01-17, 08:40 AM

1-2 last night. Penn St went cold in the second half to lose that one. Looked great at halftime (76 points). Boise was awful and quit at the end. Didn't even bother fouling.

Thread: 97-78 (+11.29u)
Totals only: 91-72

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-01-17, 10:52 AM

Probably taking the day off today. More than a little burned out. BOL on your action!

**doubledime** · 03-02-17, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Probably taking the day off today. More than a little burned out. BOL on your action!

I know the feeling

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-02-17, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

I know the feeling

I blew off a little steam with friends this week, so now I'm just tired.

Hope to be back to posting plays later later today or tomorrow.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-02-17, 05:42 PM

I won't be doing writeups today/night.

9:30 Drake/Bradley o142.5 -105

**cooperman** · 03-02-17, 05:56 PM

BOL 2day

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-02-17, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by cooperman

BOL 2day

Thanks buddy. Might have another one or two. Or I might just fall asleep.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-03-17, 08:54 AM

0-1. Drake shot so badly this one never had a chance.

Thread: 97-79 (+10.24u)
Totals only: 91-73

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-03-17, 07:41 PM

<strong>8:00 Cleveland St/Youngstown St u144 -102</strong><br>Sorry for the extremely late notice.  It's been one of those weeks.  Last Saturday they played to a 69-55 final.  10 of last 11 have gone under.<br>

**cooperman** · 03-03-17, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Thanks buddy. Might have another one or two. Or I might just fall asleep.

drake's shooting would have put most people to sleep

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-04-17, 08:57 AM

Not a good week for betting. Looking to turn things around today.

1:00 Alabama/Tennessee o135.5 -105
There's a little contrast in styles here, but I think this one can get up to 70 possessions. At that pace, 136+ shouldn't be a problem.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-04-17, 03:05 PM

Clearly struggling a bit. Use caution.

4:00 UMass/St Bonaventure o149 -103

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-04-17, 03:41 PM

6:00 Samford/Furman o145 -105

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-04-17, 04:11 PM

7:00 Western Illinois/South Dakota o147.5 -105

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-04-17, 04:33 PM

9:30 IUPUI/North Dakota St o145.5 -102

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-06-17, 08:29 AM

Absolutely brutal 0-5 Saturday. I won't be posting many plays until I get my act together.

Thread: 97-85 (+4.02u)
Totals only: 91-79

**doubledime** · 03-06-17, 10:44 AM

HG,

God knows we all have these days, all too often for me.

With all the analysis you do, in my opinion, you do not need to get your "act together". Your handicapping credentials are impeccable and have been established the entire season. Over the course of the season, you still have a plus record and only a handful of posters can say the same. I know I'll be waiting for your your next play.

DD

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-06-17, 12:23 PM

Thanks for the nice words DD. I watch a lot of games, and over the past week I've seen a lot of games where teams are playing differently than they have all season. It's very frustrating to watch, and the results have obviously suffered.

Relatedly, I caution everyone not to put too much emphasis on season-long stats this time of year. Anyone who has followed my model can see how poorly it has done since early February. One reason for that is that it is based on season-long stats. I don't have a recency component built in to it (yet?), so it does pretty well in the second month or so and then falls off.

The first game on the board tonight sticks out to me as a great example of this. NIU/EMU have played twice this season. The final totals in those games were 150 and 152 (the OUs were 137ish). Neither game went to OT. Kenpom's predicted total for tonight is 135, and the OU is sitting at 140ish. The numbers are all over the place for this one, and it's not even a neutral site game.

I did very well during the post season the last two years (conf tourneys, ncaas, minor tourneys), but I don't remember seeing anything like I saw the past week. So, yeah, I'm a little gunshy right now I guess.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-14-17, 08:40 AM

Ready to dip my toes back in...

7:00 St Francis (PA)/Jacksonville u158 -105
I get 73 possessions on the high end for this game, which would require really efficient offensive performances to get this one over 158. The defenses aren't very good, but I think the pace will be slow enough to keep this one below the number.

**thekoreanmang** · 03-14-17, 09:08 AM

Hope you had a good restful time off.

During your break did you still place some bets and just took a break from posting or is it a break from all sports betting altogether including watching any?

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-14-17, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Hope you had a good restful time off.

During your break did you still place some bets and just took a break from posting or is it a break from all sports betting altogether including watching any?

I was playing some, just not posting. I played more sides and dabbled with 2h totals. Unfortunately, the latter doesn't lend itself very well to posting.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-14-17, 09:44 AM

9:10 Wake Forest -1 +101
I like Wake here because I think they'll be able to find easier baskets than K-State. John Collins is an absolute stud, and Wake looks to have a pretty healthy advantage on the offensive glass. The Deacs also have a big advantage on the FT line, which could come into play in a game that's expected to be close.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-14-17, 11:00 PM

1-1 night. No harm, no foul since the loss was +101. Wake just couldn't get a stop.

Thread: 98-86 (+4.02u)
Totals only: 92-79

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-15-17, 08:25 AM

7:00 Belmont/Georgia u148.5 -108
It is definitely a little risky playing the NIT totals right now because it's not really clear how the experimental rules will affect scoring. That said, I'm willing to take a shot here in a game I have at 71 possessions. The experimental rules shouldn't affect Belmont much offensively, since they don't get to the line a lot. I tend to shy away from games with teams that shoot as many threes as Belmont, but they're averaging under 30% from deep on the road this season. Looking for that to continue tonight against a good defensive team in Georgia.