Great stuff!
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Thanks to all for the nice words and points. Even if I don't respond to each individually, I appreciate it. First play for Sunday:
2:00 Temple/Memphis u144 -105
I get 69 possessions here, which would require more than 1.04 ppp to go over. I have the average efficiency for this game a little below 1. Memphis is very good defensively at home, and they don't shoot FTs very well. They also don't foul much, and Temple doesn't get to the line very frequently anyway. These two played to 142 points on 65 possessions on January 25. If we get that pace again, this should stay under. Kenpom has 67 possessions.Comment -
6:00 St Peter's/Manhattan o126.5 -105
I have this one over 66 possessions, which should get us over 126 points. Manhattan's offense is painful to watch, but these two played an 84-70 game on 73 possessions earlier this season. Hoping to see a pace like that again. Kenpom has 63 possessions.
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1-1 day. Here's an odd stat from the Manhattan game ... both teams were called for 13 fouls. Manhattan shot 14 FTs and St Peters shot 3. Even crazier is that SPU won by 19. So bizarre.
Thread: 76-66 (+3.72u)
Totals only: 74-61
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In a bit of a hurry this morning, so no writeups. Two plays today:
7:00 Louisville/Syracuse o141 -102
8:00 Troy/UL Monroe u141.5 -110
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1-1 night. Won the one I was wrong about (Syracuse) and lost the one I was right about (Troy). All thanks to OT.
Thread: 77-67 (+3.62u)
Totals only: 75-62
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The overtime God giveth then taketh away.Comment -
Apologies again for the lack of writeups:
7:00 Rutgers/Purdue o135.5 -105
8:00 Denver/Western Illinois o140.5 -110
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1-1 ... again. Scuffling a bit here. Would be nice to string a few winning days together. FWIW, I had the Purdue game at 70 possessions. It finished at 69. Both teams were under their offensive efficiency, however.
Thread: 78-68 (+3.57u)
Totals only: 76-63Comment -
7:00 Temple/East Carolina u136 -108
I agree with Kenpom here that this game should have around 66 possessions. ECU's offense is horrible, but it's defense at home has been quite good. At home, the Pirates hold teams almost 13 points below their scoring averages and more than 9 percentage points below their shooting averages. That said, Temple did put up 81 points on ECU in their last meeting in Philly. Hoping the travel (Philly to Memphis to Philly to Greenville, NC) has the Owls sluggish enough to miss a few shots tonight.
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I hit that Denver over last night too that was my favorite bet.
Think you are on to something in this Temple game I wanted to see if I could get it at 137 or soComment -
One more for tonight:
7:00 La Salle/St Bonaventure o151.5 -105
Unlike a lot of my plays, this one is based more on efficiency than pace. I get at least 72-73 possessions, which might be low for some games with this total. But I like the offenses here (nice FT rates and %, for example), and La Salle's defense is terrible. With any luck we'll get some good shooting and/or a bunch of free throws.
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0-2 rough night. If you swap the last three minutes of both games, they both hit. Never saw ECU scoring 78. I may take tomorrow off unless there's something just too good to pass up. This week hasn't gone well.
Thread: 78-70 (+1.44u)
Totals only: 76-65Comment -
Felt good to step away for a day. Hope everyone did well Thursday. One for Friday so far:
7:00 Columbia/Harvard o138 -105
I get 69/70 possessions for this one, which puts my total just over 140. I wouldn't go above 138.5 here, but I think there is a potential for better than 140.
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Good luck tonight. I have not had any luck with the IVY League, so I do not even look at any of their games.Felt good to step away for a day. Hope everyone did well Thursday. One for Friday so far:
7:00 Columbia/Harvard o138 -105
I get 69/70 possessions for this one, which puts my total just over 140. I wouldn't go above 138.5 here, but I think there is a potential for better than 140.
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It's definitely a unique league. I don't think I've played any Ivy League games this season actually. Big line movement to 142.5, which has been the kiss of death lately. We'll see what happens.
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1-0 Friday night with a game that finally went as expected. Back in a while with Saturday plays.
Thread: 79-70 (+2.44u)
Totals only: 77-65
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First play today is a side:
12:00 Notre Dame -5 -105
NC State is a complete mess right now. They go into today's game with a lame duck coach and a team that has clearly quit. This is a road game for Notre Dame, but I don't expect there to be much fan involvement other than booing Mark Gottfried. The Irish execute really well offensively, and NC State is one of the worst defensive teams in the Power 5 conferences. Dennis Smith may keep this one close for a while, but Notre Dame's free throw shooting will keep the Wolfpack at bay if it's close at all down the stretch.
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2:00 St Bonaventure/Dayton o144.5 -105
I get 72+ possessions here. I love the possibility for a lot of free throws in this game, which would help possessions and efficiency. Dayton's defense is good, which is a concern for this one, but I think there should be enough scoring opportunities to get this one to 145+.
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4:00 Michigan St/Purdue o140.5
I get 71+ possessions here (kenpom has 68), which should be enough to get this one over 140 points. Both teams are pretty good defensively, but they did play an 84-73 game on January 24.
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5:00 W Illinois/N Dak St o139.5 -105
I get 71+ possessions for this one and I think there could be more. They played to 75 possessions the last time they played. Only concern here is whether Western Illinois can do its share.
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7:00 Cornell/Harvard o138.5 -110
Hoping to see 70+ possessions here.
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8:00 Oklahoma/Oklahoma St o153 -105
I gt 75+ possessions here, which puts this one above 155 for me. OU's ability to score is definitely a concern here, but OSU's defense is pretty bad. They did play a low scoring game in Norman earlier in the year, but I suspect the Cowboys will get a pace more to their liking at home.
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9:00 North Dakota/Weber St o153.5 -105
I get 75+ possessions here, which gives me a total over 155.
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Great start to the day. Finish the night off strong
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6-1 Saturday. Got some breaks early that helped a lot. Always happy when that happens.
Thread: 85-71 (+7.39u)
Totals only: 82-66
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1:30 DePaul/Butler o140 -105
I get 70+ possessions here, which gives me a number over 142 for this one. I worry some about a Butler blowout with them slowing the game down late. I think we need 60+ from DePaul, which is doable for them.
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Hello HeeluvaGuy,
I am new to college basketball capping. In your projected total possessions for each game (DePaul/Butler 70+ possessions, for example), do you take the total possessions and multiply by 2 points to come up with a projected total points for the game? Thanks so much.Comment -
There's a little more to it than that. In a basketball game, each team has the same number of "possessions." Possessions are calculated by using this formula: FGA + (FTA*.44) + turnovers - offensive rebounds. But possessions are only part of the equation. The other part is efficiency, or points per possession.
Here, for example, I estimated DePaul at .955 ppp for this game and Butler at 1.095. When you multiply those by 70 possessions each, you end up with 66.85 + 76.65, or 143.5. That matched my power ratings based model as well. The game ended 66-82, with 65 possessions. As you can see, I overestimated the pace, but underestimated the efficiency. That's one of the nice things about betting totals ... there is some margin for error.
GL and thanks for posting!
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1-0 today.
Thread: 86-71 (+8.29u)
Totals only: 83-66
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