Gl today let's get it
-
Comment -
I'm a little hesitant to do this because this is literally the first day that I've run my model for this season. However, in the spirit of full transparency, and because I believe this forum is at its best when ideas are exchanged, here is a link to my model for college basketball: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...9TqnIC3soNjU34
A few things to keep in mind:
1) This is a power rankings-based model. I use three different sets of rankings to create the final lines and totals. But because these are power ranking-based, they do not account for injuries, etc.
2) This model is less sophisticated than my football model. There are home/away adjustments, but I don't have a recency component included in this one.
3) Plays I post may or may not agree with the model. It is just a tool, not a crystal ball.
4) I intentionally do not include kenpom in my numbers. His site does that quite well, so you can think of this as "kenpom-independent."
5) I may not be able to do this everyday, but I will try.
6) In the past my model has been good at identifying unders and underdogs. For this year, however, I made an adjustment that should lower my projected totals by a little bit.
7) I will try to update lines as much as I can, but there's no way I'll have time to grade all of the games using final closing lines. Just not enough hours in the day.
Comment -
Thanks HG Any stats on past seasons using this model?
By the way you NIU play is up to 137 at some shops. Glad we got it early, thanks.
Comment -
I'll see what I can find. I had a computer crash last season and lost a lot of data. I've also been pretty bad about record keeping in basketball because there are just so many games and it's every day. Saturdays are brutal. My hunch is that the cummulative record is uninpressive, but I know that certain types of plays identified using this model have performed well (like unders and underdogs). I'm going to tinker with other types of filters to see what else I can find this season.Comment -
There's an unbelievable lack of intelligent analysis on this site (It's hard to believe that at one time Ganchrow actually posted here)...but there are folks that appreciate the exchange of ideas.
No offense to the guys interested in buffing up their 'internet legend' status or dick measuring...
Cheers bud...Comment -
7:00 N Illinois/Miami (OH) o133 -110
These two teams each average 74+ possessions per game. And while their offensive efficiency numbers aren't great, they both have high free throw rates both offensively and defensively. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities in this one to get over 133.
Do you ever use the Kenpom predicted possessions?Comment -
I look at them, but often disagree
. (See my post above about not including kenpom numbers in my model. Lines these days are so heavily dependent on his numbers that, as great as his site is - and I'm a subscriber - you can't rely solely on kenpom. You'll never get anywhere.)
I should start including his possession numbers in my posts though for the sake of comparison. He has 70 possessions for the NIU/Miami game. I think it'll be more like 73+. Even at 70 possessions an average of .957 ppp gets us over 133.
Comment -
1-0 tonight thanks to a crazy second half scoring outburst. My pace was way off as these two only played to 65 possessions.
33-31 (-.34u)
Totals: 30-25Comment -
Comment -
Nice debut for my model. Here's how it did:
Sides: 8-11
Totals: 14-5
Link with preliminary numbers for Wednesday along with a Results tab: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Comment -
Yes it was. I was glad to see my unders yesterday matched with your model. Thanks againNice debut for my model. Here's how it did:
Sides: 8-11
Totals: 14-5
Link with preliminary numbers for Wednesday along with a Results tab: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Comment -
7:00 Saint Louis/La Salle o140.5 -110
I get 72+ possessions in this one, which should be enough to get us over this number. Saint Louis is pretty bad offensively, but La Salle isn't much on the defensive end. I do worry that La Salle gets out to a big lead and runs the clock down. Kenpom has this at 68 possessions.
Comment -
Weird, never seen this thread. I'm tailing, I'm not an idiot.7:00 Saint Louis/La Salle o140.5 -110
I get 72+ possessions in this one, which should be enough to get us over this number. Saint Louis is pretty bad offensively, but La Salle isn't much on the defensive end. I do worry that La Salle gets out to a big lead and runs the clock down. Kenpom has this at 68 possessions.
Comment -
7:00 Siena/Niagara u151.5 -110
I have this as a low 70s game possession-wise. At that pace I don't think these offenses are good enough to get over 150. Kenpom has this at 68 possessions.
Comment -
That's probably it for me tonight. For action junkies, I lean over in the Wyoming and Washington games. Not sure if I can pull the trigger on those, however.Comment -
Best of luck to you HG. Looking forward to seeing matching plays. Light the W column up!Comment -
1-1 night. Siena under was comfortable, but a 5 minute scoreless stretch in the La Salle game did in the over (lost by 12).
33-32 (-.44u)
Totals: 31-26Comment -
Good workComment -
I normally like to post plays in the morning to take advantage of lines I think are soft. The past two days I haven't been able to do that, but hope to get back on track going forward. (I probably spent too much time working with the model recently.)
I will try to post any plays I have at least an hour prior to tip, and with any luck much sooner than that. At most I will have three plays today, but maybe as few as just one.
Also, I appreciate all of the words of support. My overall record for his thread isn't great, but I think we'll have a good season when all is said and done.
Comment -
7:00 Purdue/Ohio St o143 -102
I think the defenses are getting a little too much respect with this number. Both teams have very good defensive efficiency stats, but neither has played a schedule of strong offensive teams. I think we see an uptempo pace with 73 or so possessions. Kenpom has 70 possessions.
Comment -
7:30 VMI/Mercer u141.5 -110
Mercer ranks #344 in possessions per game at 66. VMI is a little faster, but still averages less than 72 possessions per game, due in part (IMO) to having played some uptempo teams. Mercer's defensive efficiency numbers aren't great, but they still hold their opponents slightly below their season averages in scoring. Mercer has played some pretty good offensive teams, so I think they'll be able to keep VMI around 60 points tonight, which should be good enough to keep this one under 142.
Comment -
Hey bud, good luck, I am so behind today,I have to take a pass.................................... .....................BOLComment -
Last one for me today:
10:00 Pacific/San Diego u136 -110
I don't see how this game gets over 65 possessions, and at that number neither offense should put up enough to get this one over 136. That said, I always worry about the Toreros getting hit from three. Kenpom has 63 possessions for this one.
Comment -
I came very close to releasing this one myself. After my yesterday, I hope that's not a bad thing. Good luck with your card to night.Last one for me today:
10:00 Pacific/San Diego u136 -110
I don't see how this game gets over 65 possessions, and at that number neither offense should put up enough to get this one over 136. That said, I always worry about the Toreros getting hit from three. Kenpom has 63 possessions for this one.
Comment -
Thanks DD. Unders stress me out more than any other type of play. In a perfect world I would play only overs, but that's not how this works.Comment -
Good luck today. I admire your approach. Also, weirdly enough, BookMaker offers the Pacific v San Diego game at U136 (-134) as the starting line. Weird.Last edited by thekoreanmang; 01-05-17, 05:24 PM.Comment -
Thanks for the kind words. I know most folks want winners, and at the end of the day that's what matters most, but seeing how someone gets there can also be helpful and that's what I'm trying to offer here.
As for the Pacific total, it has been climbing all day. I liked it at 134.5 but patience paid off and I got a better number. San Diego's three point shooting has burned me before in these types of games, but I think we can stay under as long as things don't get too ridiculous. Who knows? Maybe the longish layoff will help too.
Comment -
I was already with you on this one!! I cashed the Over in Purdue games or their team total 4-5 times already this year without a loss. They play a little faster then you would think with all their size. Team total of 73 looks pretty juicy too!7:00 Purdue/Ohio St o143 -102
I think the defenses are getting a little too much respect with this number. Both teams have very good defensive efficiency stats, but neither has played a schedule of strong offensive teams. I think we see an uptempo pace with 73 or so possessions. Kenpom has 70 possessions.
Comment -
Purdue/OSU Over from the opening tip.....just like NC State yesterday. I parlayed w/Purdue -3 as wellComment -
3-0 night without much drama. A rare kind of night.
36-32 (+2.56u)
Totals: 34-26
Comment
Thanks for stopping by!