HG's College Hoops Thread

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-23-16, 10:42 AM

7:00 Georgia/Oakland o142 -110
Everyone knows that Oakland likes to play fast, and even though Georgia doesn't play as fast, I think we get enough possessions (72+) to get us over 142. Both defenses have good numbers, but I think Oakland's numbers are particularly inflated.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-23-16, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

8:00 Houston -10.5 -103
Harvard has been off for 16 days and now they travel to Houston for a Christmas Eve eve game against Houston (and then they have another week off). Houston scored 77 points on 60 possessions against Liberty Wednesday and should dominate Harvard tonight. Between offensive rebounds and turnovers I don't see how Harvard gets enough shots up to keep this one under double digits.

Late to the party

but plenty of boos left

**GHSCREW** · 12-23-16, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

7:00 Georgia/Oakland o142 -110
Everyone knows that Oakland likes to play fast, and even though Georgia doesn't play as fast, I think we get enough possessions (72+) to get us over 142. Both defenses have good numbers, but I think Oakland's numbers are particularly inflated.

HG u thinking of picking a side? Liking Georgia there

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-23-16, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by GHSCREW

HG u thinking of picking a side? Liking Georgia there

Nah. I had a rough time early on picking sides and am really just focusing on totals. I have a model that I have used in the past to help out on sides (and totals some too), but I haven't run it at all this year and may not. It's so much work to do it every day, and it's really not very helpful if I miss days (hard to evaluate, etc).

So for now I've simplified my approach and am basically running totals by hand. If you look back you'll see that I took almost 2 weeks off from posting to work things out a bit. During that time I had a terrific run and have been decent since returning. I would like to automate what I'm doing now to save some time. If I can pull that off I might be able to start looking at sides some. Until then I plan to play totals almost exclusively, except those rare occasions where I find something like Wyoming the other day or Houston tonight.

BOL today!

**doubledime** · 12-23-16, 04:17 PM

Good luck today

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-23-16, 10:00 PM

1-1 today. Think I'll stick to totals. Houston held Harvard to 35.7% shooting but still lost at home. I'd love to know how often that happens.

28-25 (+1.21u)
Totals 25-19

See everyone next Tuesday. Happy Holidays!

**doubledime** · 12-24-16, 09:14 AM

Hope you have a great Christmas HG!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-27-16, 10:36 AM

7:00 Cornell/Syracuse u144 -110
This one isn't a strong numbers play, but I like the situation. The Cuse was torched last game out by the Johnnies and should ratchet up the defense. The last two seasons Cornell has failed to break 50 points in the Carrier Dome. That would be great today, but I'd the Orange can at least kee them under 60 I think we're in good shape for the under.

**doubledime** · 12-27-16, 02:59 PM

I like your reasons, as usual. I think about 59 is the Cornell number so let's get it.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-27-16, 09:02 PM

1-0 tonight. There was an 11-point minute in the second half that almost sunk the under, but the Cuse kept Cornell under 60 like I hoped for a comfortable winner.

29-25 (+2.21u)
Totals: 26-19

**doubledime** · 12-27-16, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

1-0 tonight. There was an 11-point minute in the second half that almost sunk the under, but the Cuse kept Cornell under 60 like I hoped for a comfortable winner.

29-25 (+2.21u)
Totals: 26-19

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-28-16, 10:10 AM

9:00 Fresno St/New Mexico o141 -110
Last season these two played games with 75 and 76 possessions, and the game at the Pit ended with 174 points. I don't think we'll see possessions or totals quite that high, but I do think we'll get 72+ possessions, which should be enough to get us over 141. Hoping to see lots of FTs in this one as well.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-28-16, 11:52 AM

8:00 UCF/Tulane o130 -110
I get 70+ possessions for this one, which should get us over this number. Some of the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers look bad for the over, so this is more of a "shots on goal" type of play.

**doubledime** · 12-28-16, 05:06 PM

Good luck

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-28-16, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

Good luck

Thanks DD. You as well!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-28-16, 11:08 PM

2-0 tonight with a little drama to get the New Mexico over.

31-25 (+4.21u)
Totals: 28-19

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-29-16, 09:14 AM

Thanks for the points dogcity.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-29-16, 09:17 AM

9:00 Vanderbilt/LSU u148 -110
I get a game played in the low 70s possession-wise. At that pace, I think the defenses are good enough to keep this one under 148. I do worry a bit about this being a close game with a lot of late-game fouling, but that's pretty much always a concern with unders.

**doubledime** · 12-29-16, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

2-0 tonight with a little drama to get the New Mexico over.

31-25 (+4.21u)
Totals: 28-19

Never in doubt

**dogcity** · 12-29-16, 10:24 AM

Max allowed by 'Non-Pro'...otherwise you could have em all. Appreciate your insights man...

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-29-16, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by dogcity

Max allowed by 'Non-Pro'...otherwise you could have em all. Appreciate your insights man...

Pretty cool to see someone who's been here for 7 years with only 179 post posting on this thread.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-29-16, 11:32 AM

10:00 Portland/Pacific o135.5 -110
This one is a good bit like the Tulane over yesterday. The efficiency numbers aren't great, but I get 72+ possessions, which I think gets us at least 136 points.

**doubledime** · 12-29-16, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

10:00 Portland/Pacific o135.5 -110
This one is a good bit like the Tulane over yesterday. The efficiency numbers aren't great, but I get 72+ possessions, which I think gets us at least 136 points.

Up to 139 at some houses. Good to get it early.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-30-16, 12:30 AM

1-1 tonight. I had the pace right in the Vandy/LSU game, but the two teams combined for 185 points in just 71 possessions. That's insanely efficient and happened because they set an SEC record for 3-pointers made in a game at 33 (out of 60 attempts). That's one reason why I typically stay away from three point shooting teams when playing totals. The swings in efficiency can be huge depending on whether a team is hot or not.

32-26 (+4.11u)
Totals: 29-20

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-30-16, 11:19 AM

9:00 South Carolina/Memphis o136 -105
I have this one over 70 possessions. At that pace this should get over the number even with South Carolina's defense as long as Memphis can get to the FT line.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-31-16, 10:34 AM

0-1 yesterday as South Carolina could not hit anything.

32-27 (+3.06u)
Totals: 29-21

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-31-16, 11:08 AM

12:00 UNC/Georgia Tech o142.5 -110

I like this one to reach nearly 75 possessions, which should get this one over 142 points. The only question mark is whether Tech can keep up its end of the bargain. I think they can with FTs and some Tar Heel defensive lapses.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-31-16, 11:24 AM

1:00 Green Bay/Youngstown St o168.5 -110
This is a big number, but these two teams are capable of getting there. They rank #8 and #22 in possessions per game, and I think this one gets over 80 possessions rather easily. Last season the two games between thaws teams finished at 103-93 and 107-90.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-31-16, 11:43 AM

5:30 Coastal Carolina/UT-Arlington u145 -110
I get low 70s for this one. At that pace I don't think the Chanticleers can score enough to get over this number. I do worry a bit, however, that Arlington puts up a big number here.

**doubledime** · 12-31-16, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

1:00 Green Bay/Youngstown St o168.5 -110
This is a big number, but these two teams are capable of getting there. They rank #8 and #22 in possessions per game, and I think this one gets over 80 possessions rather easily. Last season the two games between thaws teams finished at 103-93 and 107-90.

I came very close to releasing this one myself definitely going to play it now

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-01-17, 12:11 PM

0-3 yesterday. As bad as it gets. Looking forward to better days in 2017.

32-30 (-.24u)
Totals: 29-24

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-01-17, 12:44 PM

5:00 Drake/S. Illinois u146.5 -110
I get under 70 possessions for this one, which means these two offenses will have to be more efficient than their averages and the defenses will have to be worse. The defenses are bad, which could be a problem, but I think the lack of possessions keeps us under here.

**doubledime** · 01-01-17, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

0-3 yesterday. As bad as it gets. Looking forward to better days in 2017.

32-30 (-.24u)
Totals: 29-24

With the solid reasoning behind your plays I know 2017 is going to be a great year!! Happy New Year

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-01-17, 06:51 PM

0-1 today. Really rough stretch right now.

32-31 (-1.34u)
Totals: 29-25

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-03-17, 08:34 AM

7:00 N Illinois/Miami (OH) o133 -110
These two teams each average 74+ possessions per game. And while their offensive efficiency numbers aren't great, they both have high free throw rates both offensively and defensively. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities in this one to get over 133.