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I'm really liking Oklahoma State tonight?? Iowa State hasn't been too good ATS on the road lately.
Anyone else on board?Comment -
Tough to back an Ok State team that isn't playing too well either. I've been very unimpressed with them. This game should be tight.Comment -
What is your record currently sitting at with this system??Comment -
I found the best value in these 3 teams Furman Montana St
St. Peter's. I'm trusting the systemComment -
That's it for meComment -
Most people are using different criteria for what bets they're going through with. Using the system to narrow the games down, and then they're own knowledge to solidify the picks. So everyone's record is different. The OP has his spreadsheet posted on the first page, I believe his record is something like 57-41 I think? 58%Comment -
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ASC, this is intended to work for both the home and away team. If you think about it, the outcomes to our formula serve as projections for both the home team and away team.
For example, if you ran it for the USF @ Cincy game, you would get that Cincy's number came out around 9 pts higher than USF's. The spread was cincy -14 so you basically get 5 free pts (according to the system) when you compare the system line to the Vegas line.
As a reminder, any time you measure the Home team ppg at home in the equation, you are solving for the home team's score
When you are measuring Road team ppg on the road in the equation, you are solving for the road team's score.
Since the home team usually averages more pts at home and surrenders less, while the road team typically scores less on the road and gives up more, the system often comes in favor of the home team.
Incase the original formula got lost in translation somewhere, here it is again:
(Home Team PPG AT HOME + Road Team Pts allowed ON ROAD)/2 = New Home team score
(Road Team PPG ON ROAD + Home Team Pts allowed AT HOME)/2 = New Road team score
Compare these number to the spread and bet accordinglyComment -
Guys I usually wont get to post during 9am-5pm EST during the week since I can't post on my smart phone for some reason.
Just wanted to say this is great that everyone is generating the numbers and working together to find the best picks. I like to bet too many games, but have been coming out positive so I'm happy. Oregon ST and Wisc Mil were great picks and the majority had settled on them. I will get to check these out closer to 6-630 EST and make some picks then.
When i get a min this week i will generate my total record in system bets so far and keep it running. My record will be different than yours as some of you are more selective..It seems everyone is hitting at least 50% though. Based on my record and how many ncaab games i've picked, I'd say this system is working right around 58%.
Good luck all!Comment -
Hey beans, I was curious about your system and wanted to track it but had a few questions, forgive me for sounding stupid but first of all do you subtract the bottom number from the top? Second one you do the math the number that you come up with which team is it applied to? For example I did the math for the OK st vs ISU game tonight and came up with 1.5, so does that mean the new spread for your system is ISU +1.5 instead of the actual +7 that they are currently at?Comment -
I think someone responded to this but in answer to your question DePaul did make the criteria by 1 possession.....This is not enough
"room" for us to operate so we reduce risk.....The line has since gone to 4 which makes the case worse. This game will probably be
thrown out........Montana St and Furman look like the best plays thus far.Comment -
@ Marcus
It's not stupid no worries! And it's more important to find the difference between the two numbers as the team with the higher number is the system's favorite. So if the road team comes out with 74.5 and the Home team comes up with 67.5 We would say the Road team is favored by 7 points. I'll break down Oklahoma vs Iowa St game for you.
Solving for OK St (HOME TEAM):
(HOME avg ppg at home + ROAD Team avg Pts Allowed on road)/2 = (88.5+76.7)/2 = 82.6
Solving for Iowa St (ROAD TEAM):
(ROAD avg ppg on road+ HOME team avg pts allowed at home)/2 = (80.6+61.9)/2 = 71.25
The home team is projected 11.35 pts better than the away team in this matchup. Dont over think the subtraction part at the end. It's all about identifying who has the biggest number and if it agrees with the spread, which is 7 pts in this case favoring OK STComment -
Thanks...but I guess I'm trying to understand your weighted system....because the Depaul game, as well as the Monmouth game new system benefit (granted lines have changed now or the game may be cancelled) seems to me as being equal 8.5 points in favor of us and the new system?
Georgetown @ Depaul -3.5/+5
Iona @ Monmouth -2/+6.5Comment -
Wow look @ Depaul, they are a 5.5 pt dog but system has them at around a 4 pt fave. Depaul Moneyline if your risky or Depaul ats is the play...there are injuries though. Depaul did cover against Providence though and Georgetown sux!Comment -
I mentioned last night when I went over all the plays @ 10:30pm (check back to thread 7) that Monmouth was a play....Not the best choice but a good choice and considered a "lean". In all cases, we need more information. We want everyone to WIN. We have to gather more information during the day and discuss it here.. I think the Monmouth game might be cancelled due to weather...In regards to DePaul, they weren't a play as of last night when calculated. Your calculations are CORRECT! Look at the numbers posted.....We are only a 2 pt bucket from 3.5 to 5.....This is not good enough....Not enough room to wager DePaul comfortably......It could be a wager and now with the line movement.....maybe the moneyline isn't a bad idea.....DePaul is decent at home which is good and GTown is not playing well.....another reason to play DePaul......This is why we are doing this to make an informed decision.
In the final analysis, the DePaul game could be your choice and that's fine.....I think according to all calculations Montana St and Furman
fit the best under this system.....I'm hoping the others that give input will also give theirs so we can decide collectively....Hope it helpsComment -
Hey beans that helps a lot, thanks for explaining, just one more question, isnt Ok st home tonight?Comment -
No you didn't, thanks for clarifying. Based on these calculations the play would be on Ok st because it is +4 from the odds maker lines?Comment -
Following the system, yes that would be the play here! Both teams are good and 7 pts feels like alot to spot a strong ISU team. The odds makers must see something here to suggest OK St wins big.
That idiot Stevie Clark being kicked off team shouldn't have any bearing on this game for those wonderingComment -
I'm checking lines and seeing DePaul climb to 5 or 5 1/2 on some books......I'm not big on DePaul, however, with the system they are supposed to be 4.9 ahead - which makes 5 or more a good play..Oddmakers are getting lines close to where they should be.....Have to wait and see.....Montana St (+2 a lot of points here with the system!!!) and Furman (+1 1/2) still look good. Some like OK State.......Let's watch the lines......Comment -
Fins I think Depaul would be a fave if their top two scorers werent out. That being said, a much better providence team came to town over the weekend favored by 6 and only won by 5. George Town has been so bad that I'm not sure they deserve to be 5 point faves anywhere, on the road especiallyComment -
I also have Delaware coming out as 5.5 pt faves over northeastern but with their best player and another decent player out, I am going to take Northeastern +5Comment -
I think Furman and Montana St are the two best plays...I picked a few more:
here are my plays:
Notre Dame +12
NC Wilmington +11
Alabama A&M -6
Furman ML
Montana St +2
Northeastern +5Comment -
I think the 3 strongest play are furman & Montana st & st Peters
also I'm going to see if this works on a NBA total toniteComment -
interesting thread. i certainly will be following.Comment -
Georgetown
You may not wish to sell Georgetown short..they played decent in the loss to Villanova and the win in their last game vs. Michigan State was not too bad either. I agree they sucked before the Creighton(shoots too well) game, but are showing some signs of getting better. I am giving them a shot in a parlay with Iowa State.Comment -
I agree with Furman and Montana St.and Alabama A&M....UNCW doesn't play well against Drexel....Northeastern would be ok but the line hasn't moved.. The system calls for 5.25.... ..Why isn't there any change? I'd be careful with these 2.....Notre Dame looks good except they
are playing Syracuse who might be due for a tough game but I would be reluctant to bet against them.....Comment -
I think 11 is a lot to ask for from Drexel so hopefully Wilmington can show up and just play. I'm definitely nervous to pick against Syracuse, but I'm going to do it anyways. Hoping to land in the positive when all is said and done...hope our 'group' plays end up well. if the teams in bold wins, that would be great for our system.Comment -
Rolling with Furman and Mont. St.
Hoping we all cash in tonight
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