NCAAB system thats been working

[BeanTownClown88]

@2Dabank I hear you on the spreadsheet difficulties. I have beginner to intermediate knowledge, enough to run these types of calculations.
I want to take an excel course too and my company said they would expense it which is fortunate, not sure if your line of work would value you taking a class. I think they run like 250 bucks for a day course. You could always get the book on excel, but Im sure that would be a slower learning process.

I'm trying to avoid spending money on an outside service as I do this mostly for fun and if I make money thats even better. I am going to check out his site as I've definitely heard of it. Hopefully we have enough data here to come up with a profitable way of betting these games

[BeanTownClown88]

I have a system it has been working for 15 years. Play on any home dog off a road win a as dog of 4points or more. as long as the home dog falls between 1 and 6. Tonight indiana state last Saturday it was Texas who whipped Kansas

That looks like something that is math free and easy to do! Will bet accordingly on those! Thanks for sharing it!
How many bets a day or week do you make with that criteria?

[2daBank]

yea i would never pay for like a tout service or even sports insights goofy shit but his advanced numbers are invaluable and i mean it 20 bucks a year, 20 bucks! lol..just dont tell him id pay more, ha..

[labones00]

Here's Beetlejuice's plays for the evening. Reminder how I like to lay extra chalk/buy points with this system for an added edge.


Iowa - 4 vs Ohio State

Towson -6 vs James Madison

Providence -2 vs St. John's

Baylor +6 vs Kansas

Northern Illinois +4 vs Miami OH

TCU +12 vs Texas

Clemson -4 vs Georgia Tech

Monmouth +8 vs Iona

St. Peter's +14 vs Manhattan

Missouri +14 vs Florida

Illinois +6 vs Wisconsin

So after buying all those points and only going 5-6 how many units are you down? Why play so many games?

[Fins007]

This was last night's games........

[BeanTownClown88]

I've been using (home team pts at home + ppg L5 + PPG in conf games)/3 to get the new home score
(Road team pts on road + ppg L5 + PPG in conf games)/3 to get the new road score

Then I check RPI/BPI and if theres a big gap, Ill take the fave. If small gap or both teams have crappy rankings, Il sway towards dog depending on how above equation comes up..not sure what thresholds to follow yet in terms of difference in rankings.

If anyone has insight into BPI and RPI, please share! going to follow this tonight

[JonEJet]

If anyone has insight into BPI and RPI, please share! going to follow this tonight

Best plays? I'm going to tail

[AOSpades]

I've been using (home team pts at home + ppg L5 + PPG in conf games)/3 to get the new home score
(Road team pts on road + ppg L5 + PPG in conf games)/3 to get the new road score

Then I check RPI/BPI and if theres a big gap, Ill take the fave. If small gap or both teams have crappy rankings, Il sway towards dog depending on how above equation comes up..not sure what thresholds to follow yet in terms of difference in rankings.

If anyone has insight into BPI and RPI, please share! going to follow this tonight

What have you come up with as far as testing? Seems to me like you need to factor the defense in there somewhere to come up with the home and away totals, but id be interested to see what your matchups look like.

[BeanTownClown88]

Sorry, forgot to mention I do the same thing with the defensive numbers to determine my final points against

Oklahoma came out as a good pick

[JonEJet]

Sorry, forgot to mention I do the same thing with the defensive numbers to determine my final points against

Oklahoma came out as a good pick

[AOSpades]

Sorry, forgot to mention I do the same thing with the defensive numbers to determine my final points against

Oklahoma came out as a good pick

A little confused sorry. So you do the home team ppg + home team L5 + home team conference / 3. Then where do you fit in the away teams defense?

[BeanTownClown88]

Take Avg of road ppg, last 5 games ppg, and conf ppg for road score. Then Take Avg of pts allowd on road, pts allowed last 5 games, and pts against in conference game.

Do the same for the home side and then do the math from the old system to compute the new team totals. Then I went to espn.com and checked the rpi/bpi. OKlahoma fit the system and had higher bpi/rpi...Same with Delaware..have them right around covering but they are much higher ranked in rpi and bpi than coll of charlston

[BeanTownClown88]

St Bonnies seem around even with Richmond, but Richmond has a top player with 17 ppg out

[AOSpades]

Take Avg of road ppg, last 5 games ppg, and conf ppg for road score. Then Take Avg of pts allowd on road, pts allowed last 5 games, and pts against in conference game.

Do the same for the home side and then do the math from the old system to compute the new team totals. Then I went to espn.com and checked the rpi/bpi. OKlahoma fit the system and had higher bpi/rpi...Same with Delaware..have them right around covering but they are much higher ranked in rpi and bpi than coll of charlston

Awesome. Looks solid. Gonna take the day off of betting tonight and just try to make a new spreadsheet with this new system and see how it does against the games.

[JonEJet]

Rough 1st half

Tough loss for Ok...WVA hit a late 3 to take it to OT, and they won by 5

Ugh

[SlleepyR]

Bean, have you ran a few past games incorporating conference play numbers yet? interested in the outcome of that...

[BeanTownClown88]

I am going to tweak around more. I liked what I used last night, even if I lost, Oklahoma and Delaware didnt start to play well until the second half, if they gave a full effort I think I woulda won. Going to bet small and stick with it.

[BeanTownClown88]

Why do I feel like the old system would have worked best last night lol

[AOSpades]

What happened in here lol? Everyone kind of lost steam after we tried switching the system.

[BeanTownClown88]

I did the reg system last night and then did the same calculation with just the conference numbers..if the conference numbers supported my initial evaluation of the spread with the original system, Ill make the bet. Worked last night!

[SlleepyR]

Bean did u tryout any of yesterday's games with the conference #s emplemented? If so, what were ur findings? Details please....

[tonywayne]

What happened in here lol? Everyone kind of lost steam after we tried switching the system.

That's what happens when you overhaul a system. I was following this thread and the new system got fairly complicated. Not many sites are going to show L5 or conference only #'s for home/away totals. For a lot of people, this is a lot of manual work, even if they are simply putting it into a spreadsheet so the formula can spit out the answer.

My suggestion would be: BeanTown should do the work (or ask someone to) and post the plays for the day. This appears to be a public system, not something to sell for a profit, so that requires a bit more commitment.

[tonywayne]

FWIW - I saw someone post a thread about Virginia @ Clemson and how the spread looked like a trap. Using the original system here, I got that Clemson should have been a 4-pt favorite. Using the updated system (home/last 5/conference), I get that Virginia should be a 4-pt road favorite. The line? Virginia 5-pt road favorite (at Bovada).

As for RPI/BPI - Virginia is #17 on RPI, Clemson not in top 50. Virginia is #17 in BPI, Clemson is #58 in BPI. Not sure what to make of that, other than "of course Virginia should be favored". Factoring in 3 points for the home team, that means Virginia is closer to a 7-pt favorite if the line is -4 on the road. I'm leaning "no play", but still looking for the thresholds...

Thoughts?