NCAAB system thats been working

[wizcodlifa]

when do yoou guys actually let us no what plays are official??

[SlleepyR]

Scoresandodds.com If you go to the game you want, and click matchup report and scroll down to team statistics, it lists the exact numbers that we use.

Perfect. Much more breakdown stats compared to other sites. Hopefully I will be able to contribute once I'm caught up with u guys...
thanx agen!

[JonEJet]

Baylor
N Illinois
Monmouth

Best 3 plays....all home dogs

[BeanTownClown88]

I like those + Towson and Clemson

[TPA15]

Are there any other good plays for 7pm games? I just got home from the gym and saw these 3 that you posted Jon. Just curious if there are any others that met the criteria to bet on.

[BeanTownClown88]

Iowa

[Beetlejuice]

Here's Beetlejuice's plays for the evening. Reminder how I like to lay extra chalk/buy points with this system for an added edge.


Iowa - 4 vs Ohio State

Towson -6 vs James Madison

Providence -2 vs St. John's

Baylor +6 vs Kansas

Northern Illinois +4 vs Miami OH

TCU +12 vs Texas

Clemson -4 vs Georgia Tech

Monmouth +8 vs Iona

St. Peter's +14 vs Manhattan

Missouri +14 vs Florida

Illinois +6 vs Wisconsin

[JonEJet]

Here's Beetlejuice's plays for the evening. Reminder how I like to lay extra chalk/buy points with this system for an added edge.

Dude....that's a lot of chalk....wow

Some of these games you have are -180...lol

[JonEJet]

Looks like 1-2 on "best" bets

Not what we want, but not terrible

Took Clemson and Towson like Beans....all good there so far with Towson covering

Well Clemson didn't cover

2-3 for the night

Back at it tomorrow

[TPA15]

Tons of games tomorrow. Gotta think positive, we're going to kill it.

[AOSpades]

Yea big loser for me tonight. 4-8. Brings my grand total unfortunately to 9-14-1

[Beetlejuice]

im a loser baby! 6-11-1 last night. I'm going to see if I can't find other uses for this data, maybe live-betting line scalps? Let me research.... presently 21-17-1 (53%) using this system.

[2daBank]

im a loser baby! 6-11-1. I'm going to see if I can't find other uses for this data, maybe live-betting line scalps? Let me research....

beetle maybe look into what i suggested few days back, i think it would help your cause if you eliminated games that teams played against really bad teams, or just use conf play numbers now that they bout half way thru it..for example do you really think it matters that oklahoma scored 101 vs ark little rock or 95 vs north tex? obviously those kind of gms seriously inflate the number you working with..purdue's home points against would include them holding 310th ranked eastern Illinois to 55 points, clearly that really doesnt say anything about their defense.. just a thought, hope you turn it around but there has to be a lot more going into that equation or everyone would be rich,, not trying to hate just trying to offer something that might help ya all out...

[Fins007]

beetle maybe look into what i suggested few days back, i think it would help your cause if you eliminated games that teams played against really bad teams, or just use conf play numbers now that they bout half way thru it..for example do you really think it matters that oklahoma scored 101 vs ark little rock or 95 vs north tex? obviously those kind of gms seriously inflate the number you working with..purdue's home points against would include them holding 310th ranked eastern Illinois to 55 points, clearly that really doesnt say anything about their defense.. just a thought, hope you turn it around but there has to be a lot more going into that equation or everyone would be rich,, not trying to hate just trying to offer something that might help ya all out...

You make a very good point and assessment......What site can you access conference numbers?

[2daBank]

You make a very good point and assessment......What site can you access conference numbers?

not a clue bro,, if it was me and that what i wanted to do i would just do them myself... im sure there prob somewhere to find them but i dont use points per game numbers in my capping...

[BeanTownClown88]

@daBank what do you use in your capping? I agree, we need to adjust for conference play. I was going to look into refining the math and incorporating how the home/away teams have done over the last 5 games as well as take into consideration their season totals on the road/at home. I also just checked scoresandodds.com and they do have conference play numbers!

I say we test how just using the conference play numbers works. Then as a side project I will generate numbers based on formula:

(Home team pts scored at home + Home pts scored at home in conference play)/2
(Away team pts scored on road + Road pts scored in conference play)/2

If this doesnt work I'll replace the first part of equations with Home/Away team pts scored at home/on road over last 5 games.

Trying to play trends as well as conference action.

Hope no one bets huge based on this until we find something that works!

[SlleepyR]

@daBank what do you use in your capping? I agree, we need to adjust for conference play. I was going to look into refining the math and incorporating how the home/away teams have done over the last 5 games as well as take into consideration their season totals on the road/at home. I also just checked scoresandodds.com and they do have conference play numbers!

I say we test how just using the conference play numbers works. Then as a side project I will generate numbers based on formula:

(Home team pts scored at home + Home pts scored at home in conference play)/2
(Away team pts scored on road + Road pts scored in conference play)/2

If this doesnt work I'll replace the first part of equations with Home/Away team pts scored at home/on road over last 5 games.

Trying to play trends as well as conference action.

Hope no one bets huge based on this until we find something that works!

Bean, here is my 2 cents.... I ran yesterday's games using the L5(last 5 games) as well and noticed that the numbers coming out were closer together than just using H/A games AVGs. Some of the games that were supposed to be good plays didn't look as appealing when compared to the H/A AVGs numbers. The only play that looked good last night was the Towson game. That was the only game I played and hit. An idea I was thinking about was to use the L5 games as a type of gauge on which games are the better plays. Let me kno if this makes sense to you.

PS... I would maybe even do an L3(last 3 games) to see if the teams are improving or getting worse as the season progresses. That's another thing I noticed with the L5 numbers.

[2daBank]

there a lot that goes into it, im short on time at the moment but i prefer to come up with how many possessions each team will have and then i multiply a teams points per possession with number of possessions is the most basic form of the number i start with rather than points per gm, after i have that number for both teams then i start factoring in several different things i find important that are a lot matchup based that i dont really have time to get into at the moment..

[BeanTownClown88]

I'm definitely following, I would almost run three different calculations and then compare them to the actual outcomes.
From here we can see what works and when..or we may see none of it works.

Do we go back to the old way for march madness when we get random teams playing each other again? NCAAB is crazy

[2daBank]

Bean, here is my 2 cents.... I ran yesterday's games using the L5(last 5 games) as well and noticed that the numbers coming out were closer together than just using H/A games AVGs. Some of the games that were supposed to be good plays didn't look as appealing when compared to the H/A AVGs numbers. The only play that looked good last night was the Towson game. That was the only game I played and hit. An idea I was thinking about was to use the L5 games as a type of gauge on which games are the better plays. Let me kno if this makes sense to you.

PS... I would maybe even do an L3(last 3 games) to see if the teams are improving or getting worse as the season progresses. That's another thing I noticed with the L5 numbers.

i think that will def get yo closer on a lot of numbers,, personally i feel you have to find something that works for you to factor in the strength of the opponents faced and even get into how each particular team matches up with certain teams compared to others..

[2daBank]

I'm definitely following, I would almost run three different calculations and then compare them to the actual outcomes.
From here we can see what works and when..or we may see none of it works.

Do we go back to the old way for march madness when we get random teams playing each other again? NCAAB is crazy

honestly after the conference tourneys i consider my season mostly done,, of coarse i bet the big dance but i scale back my unit size considerably unless there the few occasions i feel really strongly about 1 of the games, cause even if you ultimately end up with something you feel good about in reg season and you start being able to line and total gms yourself all a sudden these kids are in unfamiliar gyms playing at all different times and shit. so the dance is way more just for action mostly and i like to bet futures on whoever i like to win their region at a good price and of coarse do a few brackets..

[SlleepyR]

i think that will def get yo closer on a lot of numbers,, personally i feel you have to find something that works for you to factor in the strength of the opponents faced and even get into how each particular team matches up with certain teams compared to others..

Bank, I completely feel you on this. I know that this is just a start or foundation to work with. Now it's jus what factors do we add to this equation to help get that slight advantage and minimize our losses and maybe even win a few $$$ in the process.

Bean, how different was the old system compared to this current one? I too am doing this to prepare for march madness as this is my project for me and sum of the guys at my work. Now that football is done, it's bball time...

[BeanTownClown88]

I am not sure how Bank was doing with it as I only ran numbers for the system mentioned at the beginning of this thread.
My real downfall is that I live with my gf and can't allocate as much time to this as I want to lol.

[JonEJet]

Love the fact everyone is working this system out....keep banging it out boys

Thanks

[BeanTownClown88]

I like the idea of incorporating in strength of schedule some how..maybe tie it in to one of the factors we consider after running the numbers..anyone have a good way of evaluating this? Is ESPN the best place to get that info?

[JonEJet]

I like the idea of incorporating in strength of schedule some how..maybe tie it in to one of the factors we consider after running the numbers..anyone have a good way of evaluating this? Is ESPN the best place to get that info?

I like using the last 5 or 7 games as a way to evaluate how the team is playing.....seems like you can get a better feel on how the team is trending

[AOSpades]

Woah looks like I missed a lot lol. Looks like we're thinking of using last 5 games ppg and points allowed. For the home teams are we just doing last 5 home games still? Or are we just doing the last 5 games all together?

[BeanTownClown88]

Whatever we decide should be consistent. Im messing around with taking average of last 5, conference play, and home at home/road on road stats. Mixing and matching certain parts to see how close I can get to spread and the final result. If i have any break throughs ill be sure to post. We need to figure out how to best predict outcomes in conference play

[Fins007]

The last 5 conference games is more of an up-to-date prediction.......It will take tons more math but if Towson is the only one that
hit last night then you are getting your answer......Sounds like a plan.

[BeanTownClown88]

Woah looks like I missed a lot lol. Looks like we're thinking of using last 5 games ppg and points allowed. For the home teams are we just doing last 5 home games still? Or are we just doing the last 5 games all together?

I think there's merit in calculating the averages from last 5 games and conference play for both sides. Then gauging the difference between RPI/BPI rankings. For example I did Memphis (pts scored in last 5 games + Home game pts avg + pts scored in conference play)/3 + Rutgers (Pts scored in last 5 games + Pts avg on road + conference play)/3 and got Memphis as a 9.2 favorite.

Then i looked at RPI and see Memphis ranks 30th (.610) and Rutgers ranks 200 (.480)
Then i looked at BPI and see Memphis ranks 34 (80.9) and Rutgers tanks 190 (51.5)

That difference is enough to make me think Memphis should cover more than 9 pts. Can someone give me a dumbed down explanation of BPI and RPI and what the decimal numbers represent? I get the jist but perhaps someone can explain further. I want to gauge what we consider a significant difference in rankings..is it over 130 spots like the example above? Any rules of thumb when going by these numbers?

Oddly enough the difference in BPI is close to what the outcome was..a 32 point beating. I have to do a little work as I'm at home during the blizzard today but will come back to this to test against games from yesterday.

[AOSpades]

Not sure if this actually works or if I got lucky, but this seemed pretty close to predicting the actual score of the Missouri Florida game yesterday.

Missouri: Last 5 games PPG (75) + Conference games PPG (73) + Opponents Points Allowed Last 5 (50.2) + Opponents Points allowed Conference (55.1) = 253.3 / 4 = 63.33

Florida: Last 5 games PPG (66.8) + Conference games PPG (70.5) + Opponents Points Allowed Last 5 (70.6) + Opponents Points Allowed Conference (71.1) = 279 / 4 = 69.75

This would suggest that the score of the game would be Missouri 63, Florida 70. The actual score ended up being 58 - 68. So we're a few points off. But betting on the opening line of Missouri +12 would have won. Removing the Last 5 PPG for each team brings the totals even closer to the actual total, but I'm not sure if thats just an isolated case. I'll keep testing it on games from last night, but this could be a starting place for anyone looking to crunch numbers.

[AOSpades]

Tried it with the memphis game and it doesnt even get close lol, so scratch that.

[2daBank]

I am not sure how Bank was doing with it as I only ran numbers for the system mentioned at the beginning of this thread.
My real downfall is that I live with my gf and can't allocate as much time to this as I want to lol.

oh i already have my own way of lining gms and totals just saw this thread and figured maybe i could give you guys some ideas to steer ya'll in the right direction if i could,, i still tweak things from time to time and it never a exact science as i weight things differently for different matchups as i said i think Sat night when i saw your thread once you start messing with numbers and math to make lines there are a million different ways you can go with it. i dont even know any teams ppg avg as formed mine based mostly off a lot of kenpoms advanced metrics, i even do players now as i started getting into playing daily fantasy leagues this year and been doing pretty well with it..biggest problem for me is while ive always liked numbers and math im a computer retard so it a lot of work for me compared to the guys i know that can just stuff the numbers they want into a spreadsheet of whatever, only reason i have the time is cause im a insomniac and my work is slow in the winters so it works out, think at end of this yr im gonna take some kinda coarse like excel for dummies 101 or some shit, lol..

if you really serious about it i would suggest checking out kenpom's site,, for free all you can see is his front rankings page but it only 20 bucks a year and i dunno what id do w/o it, only handicapping tool i have ever paid for (used to be free but when he starting asking for 20 bucks i gave it happily)..

[BeanTownClown88]

Haha the answers are in the numbers! I like the tweak and the fact you got close to the actual score.
Let me know how the testing goes!

My guess is the further we get into conference play, the more we need to use conference play/last 5 game stats. My concern is there needs to be some home and away consideration going on and Im not sure theres an easy way to calculate home and away ppg/pts allowed per game in conference play without going to each game on espn and calculating it by hand.

2DaBank made a good point how the home and away numbers can be heavily skewed due to non conference play and mediocre teams whooping on really bad teams. For now, I am still considering the home/away ppg and can hopefully offset the possible lopsidedness with averaging in last 5 games and conference play stats.

[mcvegas]

I have a system it has been working for 15 years. Play on any home dog off a road win a as dog of 4points or more. as long as the home dog falls between 1 and 6. Tonight indiana state last Saturday it was Texas who whipped Kansas