NCAAB system thats been working

[fishtot]

Heres the Geo/Aub game (covers numbers), this one has me confused.. No injuries for Aub and they are only favored by 4. What am I missing?

	Road		Home
	PPG	PA	PPG	PA	HOME LINE
FG	59.8	74.4	76.4	66	-12.5
1h	25.2	33.8	36.7	28.8	-8.25
2h	31.8	39	39.8	37.2	-4.9

[BeanTownClown88]

If you did it right, you'll get that Depaul has a higher projected total by 4.25 pts. So the avg of depauls home pts scored+providence's away point allowed is 4.25 pts larger than the avg of providence's away pts scored+Depauls home pts allowed.

With this logic, depaul is the pick..Providence is the fave today because depauls top player is out..this game is a special case

[fishtot]

This method should at least hit 50%, due to the law of averages, I hope

[BeanTownClown88]

I hope! and I dont get the auburn line being so low so i bet it!

[fishtot]

Thanks Bean

[wizcodlifa]

so did you post all of your plays??

[superbowl3056]

Hmm I see:

KS away ppg + WVU Home Pts allowed = 64.9+70.2=135.1 then divide by 2 = Kan score of 67.55

WVU home ppg + KS road pts allowed = 83.2+64.4=147.7 then divide by 2 = WVU score of 73.8

73.8-67.55 = 6.25 difference in favor of WVU

Think I figured out where our disparity is coming from.. seems like bovada doesn't calculate games on "neutral sites" when computing the away scoring allowed... counting the five games they played at neutral sites this year, Kstate does allow 64.4 ppg, so you're right. Disregarding the neutral court games and only counting the true road games, they allow around 72 or something, which is closer to the number bovada uses... what site do you use again? I think I will start using that instead

[fishtot]

KSU/WV looks good too, no new injuries,

	Road		Home
	PPG	PA	PPG	PA	HOME LINE
FG	66	70.2	83.1	67.9	-9.7
1h	31.2	37	41.9	32.4	-7.65
2h	34.8	33.2	41.2	35.5	-2.05

[BeanTownClown88]

http://beantownclown88.mysbrforum.com/ssexport/?id=uDy1U9Lw&type=html

[AOSpades]

Theoretically it will hit near 50% if you're strictly going by the system. But the point is to use the system as a starting point, then take into account the things that can't be put into numbers to make your final bets.

[BeanTownClown88]

Try to catch a majority of the 50% that hit

[fishtot]

50% with money management is the key

[Madison]

I don't have the patience or time to do all the work you guys are doing and I couldn't read the whole thread so forgive if this is repeat. Based on what I have read it seems the more mature the data the more accurate it should be. So, consider this and adjust your units accordingly. GL!!

[BeanTownClown88]

Think I figured out where our disparity is coming from.. seems like bovada doesn't calculate games on "neutral sites" when computing the away scoring allowed... counting the five games they played at neutral sites this year, Kstate does allow 64.4 ppg, so you're right. Disregarding the neutral court games and only counting the true road games, they allow around 72 or something, which is closer to the number bovada uses... what site do you use again? I think I will start using that instead

Ah ok, I use scoresandodds.com for my info

[Beetlejuice]

Now when we say that there's say, a 6.25 difference in favor of WVU, does that mean that OUR new spread is WVU -6.25, OR does that mean that with the Kansas being -2.5 origionally, we just slide it the other way, making the spread WVU -3.75?

[AOSpades]

Beantown, in the first post you mentioned something about the nba being brutal and looking for other systems. Is there a reason why this system can't be translated to other sports?

[BeanTownClown88]

Now when we say that there's say, a 6.25 difference in favor of WVU, does that mean that OUR new spread is WVU -6.25, OR does that mean that with the Kansas being -2.5 origionally, we just slide it the other way, making the spread WVU -3.75?

the first part. 6.25 diff in favor of wvu

[BeanTownClown88]

Beantown, in the first post you mentioned something about the nba being brutal and looking for other systems. Is there a reason why this system can't be translated to other sports?

Yea..perhaps football..maybe both ncaa and nfl. it was not good for nba however

[Beetlejuice]

the first part. 6.25 diff in favor of wvu

So if you were a vegas capper setting a line with this system, your spread would be probably WVU -6, correct?

[BeanTownClown88]

So if you were a vegas capper setting a line with this system, your spread would be probably WVU -6, correct?

yes or 6.5 . but you're thinking of it correctly

[Beetlejuice]

yes or 6.5 . but you're thinking of it correctly

You would have made a good special ed teacher.

[drfunkmaster]

too much math going on here..

[AOSpades]

This may be a dumb question, but how do you backtest something like this? How can you figure out what the ppg and points allowed would have been at the time of the game?

[BeanTownClown88]

I just go off stats from scoresandodds.com and backtested like two days before making wagers

[BeanTownClown88]

You would have made a good special ed teacher.

LMAO patience of a saint

[Beetlejuice]

LMAO patience of a saint

Oh boy ur gonna kill me, but I have to ask because I'm finally figuring shit out. According to our system, to be concrete about this it is DEPAUL -4.25 over Providence, right?

[superbowl3056]

Georgetown +8 lookin like another good one.. using bovada numbers its about even

[BeanTownClown88]

Oh boy ur gonna kill me, but I have to ask because I'm finally figuring shit out. According to our system, to be concrete about this it is DEPAUL -4.25 over Providence, right?

Yes that's right. I took prov -6 because I thought Depaul will not hit that -4 without a guy out who averages 16 ppg. due to the injury, i took prov

[killawookie]

Mizzou and Prov both early losses.. law of averages checking in today and last night

[BeanTownClown88]

sux about prov!

[Beetlejuice]

Holy shit, I mean, the system makes sense and all.... but damn, not cashing at all yet, other than the St. John's game....

[16kredit]

Prov game was a a fkin huge bad beat, 1 seconds left, and they score 2 just to fk up the -6. Not like they would have won the game... NOOOOO just to screw the spread for prov backers.

[BeanTownClown88]

yea since it started hot maybe this is it coming back down..who else did you take? Ball st lookin good * auburn winning, evansville +19.5 startin well. hopefully startin to turn around


Hoping for better luck this afternoon and evening.

[killawookie]

Ok State not looking likely with them having to cover 12 in 2nd half.. and Colorado probably not gonna happen

[killawookie]

Ball state and Auburn looks good though