NCAAB system thats been working

[AOSpades]

Just gonna have to tail you today it's only 11 am and I'm fried, my head is going to blow up with all these numbers lol. I need to get more proficient in excel so I can move away from pen and paper haha

[BeanTownClown88]

sent you an inbox msg lol

[Beetlejuice]

Hmm wierd i got Wake -8.75 I think GT in rough shape too so I took Wake.
For that calc I had:

Gt
(65.6+63.9)/2 =64.75

WF
(75.2+71.6)/2 =73.4 73.4-64.75=8.65

See why I'm having people check my friggin work? I just subtracted wrong.

[BeanTownClown88]

haha yea i was doing that up until a few days ago....figured I was using this enough that it would make sense to just throw it on excel. Now all I enter is the teams playing, spread, and the points info

[theforce]

What does Maryland @ Va Tech give you?

[Beetlejuice]

What does Maryland @ Va Tech give you?

It gave me Maryland -4, and considering the line opened at -5, that would be a no go for yours truly.

[superbowl3056]

Interesting little system... will definitely be tracking it today and seeing what happens.

If any of you use bovada (or even if you dont) you can actually see the breakdowns quite easily. under each games "matchup" page at the very bottom they list home/away stats for each team. Home team scoring vs. away team defense and vice versa are actually listed right next to each other, makes it easy to see the average. good luck

[BeanTownClown88]

Ah thanks SB and I have MD-4 so staying off!

[fishtot]

I made a spread sheet and using Covers home/away numbers. Why are their numbers different than the scoresandodds website? any ideas? Covers is so much nicer laid out, all 4 in a row.

[AOSpades]

Interesting little system... will definitely be tracking it today and seeing what happens.

If any of you use bovada (or even if you dont) you can actually see the breakdowns quite easily. under each games "matchup" page at the very bottom they list home/away stats for each team. Home team scoring vs. away team defense and vice versa are actually listed right next to each other, makes it easy to see the average. good luck

Looks like I need to switch to bovada lol. I was hoping to find an app that had all the info easily listed out. No such luck yet

[superbowl3056]

Looks like I need to switch to bovada lol. I was hoping to find an app that had all the info easily listed out. No such luck yet

haha you actually dont need a bovada account... just go to their site, click sports at the top... on the left click basketball, then ncaa basketball.... you will see the games listed, right above each one is a little link that says matchup... click that and it will give you a matchup page with stats for both teams, scroll down to the bottom and there ya go... home/road splits for each team

[AOSpades]

sent you an inbox msg lol

Got it! Working on getting to 20 posts so I can respond lol

[superbowl3056]

so bean town, let me see if I'm calculating this correctly... in the depaul game, depaul is +6, but using your system I'm actually computing them to be favored... right?

[Beetlejuice]

so bean town, let me see if I'm calculating this correctly... in the depaul game, depaul is +6, but using your system I'm actually computing them to be favored... right?

Not that's im necessarily answering FOR him, but my understanding is that DePaul opened up at +4.5, Bean's system has them at +4.25. He did end up taking providence, but the line had moved to 6

[BeanTownClown88]

Depaul comes out as a 4.25 pt fave.....but the spread is prov-6, probably cuz depauls top player is out

[Beetlejuice]

was I right?

[fishtot]

I got depaul 1h -3, FG -5.95

[superbowl3056]

Not that's im necessarily answering FOR him, but my understanding is that DePaul opened up at +4.5, Bean's system has them at +4.25. He did end up taking providence, but the line had moved to 6

The way I calculate it, the system actually has Depaul favored by about 3. Didn't know they had a player out thouhg, explains the line

[fishtot]

ST johns 1h-2.55, FG -6.6

[superbowl3056]

Depaul comes out as a 4.25 pt fave.....but the spread is prov-6, probably cuz depauls top player is out

Ok, glad I'm understanding this corerctly, I'm sure the site youre using has slightly different numbers than Bovada for whatever reason which explains our approximate point between our spreads. Looking at WVU, your system should have them favored by around 12.. line only 3... possibly play?

[Beetlejuice]

Depaul comes out as a 4.25 pt fave.....but the spread is prov-6, probably cuz depauls top player is out

Now Im frickin lost. I thought the system had Providence at -4.25. I'm checking my math, how am I wrong?

[BeanTownClown88]

SB make sure ur using home/away point totals/allowances not team totals..could explain it..WVU came out to 6.25 fave

[BeanTownClown88]

Now Im frickin lost. I thought the system had Providence at -4.25. I'm checking my math, how am I wrong?

Heres what I got

67.95 Revised road score

72.2 Revised home score

[superbowl3056]

heres what I'm using/my math.. please tell me where I'm going wrong haha

WVU home scoring = 83.09
Kstate road defense = 74.20
average = 78.6

Kstate away scoring = 65.40
WVU home defense = 67.91
average = 66.7

78.6 - 66.7 = 11.9 new spread?

[Beetlejuice]

I thought you're supposed to do: 72.2 - 67.95, not the other way around. Did you make a mistake?

[Beetlejuice]

Heres what I got

67.95 Revised road score

72.2 Revised home score

I thought you're supposed to do: 72.2 - 67.95, not the other way around. Did you make a mistake?

[superbowl3056]

I thought you're supposed to do: 72.2 - 67.95, not the other way around. Did you make a mistake?

I think you're doing it right, just misunderstanding it. since revised home score is greater than revised road score, the system favors the home team...

[fishtot]

Using Covers numbers: Mizz -6.2, 1h -3.65, 2h -2.65.....looks good

[BeanTownClown88]

Hmm I see:

KS away ppg + WVU Home Pts allowed = 64.9+70.2=135.1 then divide by 2 = Kan score of 67.55

WVU home ppg + KS road pts allowed = 83.2+64.4=147.7 then divide by 2 = WVU score of 73.8

73.8-67.55 = 6.25 difference in favor of WVU

[Beetlejuice]

I think you're doing it right, just misunderstanding it. since revised home score is greater than revised road score, the system favors the home team...

im lost now. help. No one mentioned revised anything during this....

[BeanTownClown88]

whenever the away team ppg is in equation, your measuring for away score. when home team ppg is in the equation, your measuring for the home team score..the difference will show which side projects to score more pts

[fishtot]

Heres the SC/ Miss game (using covers)

	Road		Home
	PPG	PA	PPG	PA	HOME LINE
FG	64	77.7	82.5	71.5	-12.35
1h	28	38.1	37.8	31.5	-8.2
2h	36	39.6	38.4	36.3	-2.85

[BeanTownClown88]

revised scores are what we're calling the new scores we're coming up with

[BeanTownClown88]

My wake and marshall are not working out currently...hope 2nd half magic kicks in

[Beetlejuice]

whenever the away team ppg is in equation, your measuring for away score. when home team ppg is in the equation, your measuring for the home team score..the difference will show which side projects to score more pts

So explain to me please this DePaul/providence math, because I have no idea how the faves got flipped around.