My NBA Picks Round 1.

5/8/12 11:46pm

5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Lakers 1st Half Over 89 -120*

5/8/12 11:38pm

5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets 1st Half Over 47 -120* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Lakers

5/8/12 10:57pm

5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Lakers Under 194 -110*

**H1Cypher** · 05-06-12, 04:04 PM

When the announcers say the officials are tightening up the way they are calling it now do they mean they are adding points on a pathetic offensive showing. My 1 regret is not betting over 77.5 I knew under was the right call. Something needed to happen for it to go over 77.5, I guess that something was the refs.

That shouldn't have even been a sweat. I was pretty sure I'd get 2/3 correct but that was ridiculous amount of fouls in that last minute.

5/6/12 4:37pm	Win	Pending	5/6/12 3:30pm Live In-Play Basketball 9704 New York Knicks 1st Half Over 35½ -115* <small>vs</small> Miami Heat

5/6/12 4:36pm	Win	Pending	5/6/12 3:30pm Live In-Play Basketball 9703 Miami Heat 1st Half Under 45½ -115* <small>vs</small> New York Knicks

5/6/12 4:24pm	Loss	Pending	5/6/12 3:30pm Live In-Play Basketball 9703 Miami Heat/New York Knicks 1st Half Under 80½ -120*

Nice start to the day

**H1Cypher** · 05-06-12, 05:29 PM

5/6/12 6:08pm	Win	Pending	5/6/12 3:30pm Live In-Play Basketball 9704 New York Knicks Over 87 -115* <small>vs</small> Miami Heat

5/6/12 5:59pm	Win	Pending	5/6/12 3:30pm Live In-Play Basketball 9704 New York Knicks Over 84 -115* <small>vs</small> Miami Heat

Heat have been able to strangle this team before I just didn't think it would happen this game kept it simple. Also wanted to bet over 171.5 when I noticed the shot making starting to pick up from how bad it was before.

**H1Cypher** · 05-06-12, 07:13 PM

5/6/12 8:00pm	Win	Pending	5/6/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9705 Atlanta Hawks 1st Half Over 40 -115* <small>vs</small> Boston Celtics
5/6/12 8:00pm	Loss	Pending	5/6/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9706 Boston Celtics 1st Half Under 61½ -115* <small>vs</small> Atlanta Hawks

5/6/12 7:58pm	Loss	Pending	5/6/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9705 Atlanta Hawks/Boston Celtics 1st Half Under 101½ -120*

Could've went 2/3 if that last shot doesn't fall could've went 3/3 oh well. I've had enough luck swing my way just posting a loss cause they've been rare lately. Celtics couldn't miss at the end really could not miss there, not that the Hawks were playing any defense. Rich black buffoons just wanna go home and get their **** on. Regular season checks are drying up for these fake ass hawks.

Looks like it wouldn't have matterred cause of t hat 3 point shot that was counted as a 2. Well I prefer losing that way- imagine if KG misses the shot and I think I have a win cause they have 61- when in reality they have 62. I'd be pissed, lol! Still the Hawks I blame for that pitiful defensive performance.

**H1Cypher** · 05-06-12, 08:28 PM

5/6/12 9:16pm		Pending	5/6/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9705 Atlanta Hawks/Boston Celtics Under 189 -110*

5/6/12 9:00pm		Pending	5/6/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9705 Atlanta Hawks +25 -120* <small>vs</small> Boston Celtics
5/6/12 9:00pm	Win	Pending	5/6/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9705 Atlanta Hawks Under 85 -120* <small>vs</small> Boston Celtics

Only bet that matterred was Hawks under 85. Celtics under was the better bet and +25.5 yeah I could have taken that too but this is what I ended up going with.

**H1Cypher** · 05-07-12, 02:27 PM

Let's see how the Drive to the Finals fans did yesterday:

Carmelo Anthony	16%	41	6	4	51
Rajon Rondo	2%	20	3	16	39
Carlos Boozer	3%	23	11	4	38
Kobe Bryant	2%	22	8	6	36
LeBron James	6%	27	4	4	35
Jrue Holiday	7%	20	8	6	34
Josh Smith	3%	15	13	5	33
Dwyane Wade	4%	22	3	6	31
Amar'e Stoudemire	1%	20	10	1	31
Spencer Hawes	0%	22	8	1	31
Paul Pierce	4%	24	4	0	28
Danilo Gallinari	4%	20	6	2	28
Pau Gasol	1%	13	9	6	28
Andre Iguodala	1%	14	12	2	28

Not putting up all the picks just the top 15 or so. Rajon Rondo over 31.5 pts+asts+boards was the bet I liked alot yesterday. Just tough to bet on player props when I'm doing so well in live in play unless it's a smaller bet. I'm looking through this list it looks like alot of these guys didn't go over their posted total. Pau went under all 3, Dwayne may have went under by 1 point, Josh Smith points went under, Lebron James was likely a push maybe an under, Kobe was 1/3 boards + assists prop would have hit. A mediocre day for drive to the finals fans.

Todays picks the drive to the finals nba fans like:
Hot Picks:

A. Jefferson (25%)
R. Gay (24%)
P. Millsap (16%)
C. Paul (14%)
B. Griffin (5%)

Mike Conley with 4%, Tony Parker 3%, Marc Gasol 2%, Zach Randolph 2%,

**H1Cypher** · 05-07-12, 10:21 PM

5/7/12 11:10pm			Pending	5/7/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9713 Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Clippers 1st Half Over 102½ -130*
5/7/12 11:10pm			Pending	5/7/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9714 Los Angeles Clippers 1st Half Over 52½ -115* <small>vs</small> Memphis Grizzlies

5/7/12 10:56pm		Loss	Pending	5/7/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9714 Los Angeles Clippers 1st Quarter Under 19½ -120* <small>vs</small> Memphis Grizzlies

5/7/12 10:55pm	Win		Pending	5/7/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9713 Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter Over 25 -120* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Clippers

I was gonna bet Clippers +5 knew Ishould have bet that at -125 instead of Clippers under which was an after thought. Doesn't matter Memphis over 25 was the big bet, and for a second it was looking like they might end the quarter with 24 but picked it back up again. Didn't post the Spurs game here no need to brag every time.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 01:09 AM

5/8/12 1:53am	Win		Pending	5/7/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9713 Memphis Grizzlies +6 +100* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Clippers

5/8/12 1:52am	Win		Pending	5/7/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9713 Memphis Grizzlies +6 +100* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Clippers

5/8/12 1:09am		Loss	Pending	5/7/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9713 Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Clippers Under 177 -110*

5/8/12 1:07am	Win		Pending	5/7/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9713 Memphis Grizzlies +4½ +105* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Clippers

Got lucky in the 2nd half. I knew I should have just taken the Clipper team total over 87 at some point there. That was my biggest regret would have been sitting pretty. +6 I had to think about then after thinking about all the ways I could win or push with 1 minute left to go in the game I figured +6 was the move so I bet it then thought it over one more time bet it again.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 01:21 AM

It's funny cause I had a great scheme of betting the under once it went back above 175 cause I figured score would be right around 175. So I took 177 under. When it went back to 175 again I thought about taking over clippers team total 87 and over 175 for game with the +4.5. I wanted to avoid winning by trying to win by a hair by betting the over late which is what I've been hitting lately. It looked like my plan was gonna pay off great with the game going under 177 and +4.5 probably hitting too. So Plan A was take clippers team total over 85 and game over 175 or play it safe and smart. Of course I could have bet the game under for the game once it got really high early in the 1st quarter but then that would go against everything I've been doing which is going from 1st quarter, to 1st half, to the end of the game score / spread.

**bluevase** · 05-08-12, 01:25 AM

Thanks for the leg work buddy. I find it useful.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 04:25 PM

Sure =). There's helpful tidbits in here. Like my live in play tips since before the all star break. Even next year I think my live in play analysis for regular season games back around page 8 of this thread will hold the same. Not so much in the playoffs but still some helpful tidbits like pace, fouls being called etc.

I also said Al Jefferson was gonna rebound either at home in utah and game 2 was 50/50 cause they locked him down in. Game 2 he went under, game 3 and 4 in Utah he went over the props totals. Not so much easy money but I did the scout work, but I was so busy with my live in play I didn't even remember to bet Jefferson prop in games 3 and 4. Did the scout work and I didn't bet it damn. So if that's what you meant then nice =).
Anyway your welcome if anything has been of use to ya.

May 7th results for NBA drive to the finals fans top players/picks:

Chris Paul	14%	27	9	7	43
Blake Griffin	5%	30	5	7	42
Mike Conley	4%	25	7	8	40
Al Jefferson	25%	26	10	2	38
Rudy Gay	24%	23	7	4	34
Paul Millsap	16%	10	19	2	31
Devin Harris	1%	19	3	7	29
Derrick Favors	2%	16	10	1	27
Zach Randolph	2%	12	9	1	22
Manu Ginobili	0%	17	4	1	22
Tony Parker	3%	11	3	3	17
Tim Duncan	1%	11	5	1	17
Mo Williams	0%	9	3	4	16
Marc Gasol	2%	8	5	2	15

Killed it yesterday did the fans. All of the combined totals went over, some of the singular numbers like points and boards split.

May 8th top picks:

Hot Picks:

G. Davis (25%)
J. Smith (25%)
C. Boozer (12%)
J. Johnson (12%)
D. Granger (4%)

Kobe Bryant 3%, Andrew Bynum 2%, Rajon Rondo 2%, Ty Lawson 2%.

Jameer Nelson, Pau Gasol, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Garnett, Luol Deng, David West all at 1%.

Glen Davis is probably a popular pick cause he can put up good numbers and Magic may be eliminated today. He has been an option on offense with Dwight out, and like I said if the Pacers win this game. The fans won't be able to use him in their fantasy cause the Magic will be eliminated and he's had a good series so they want to get to use him before his team goes fishing(is eliminated).

**bluevase** · 05-08-12, 07:56 PM

I am unable to send you a reply message do to my low post count. forum policy

"the stats you gave out and the live tips that you shared. I tailed you on some and cashed. I just wanted to make username so I can post on your thread to thank you on it. Continue to do what you do best and I will be looking at your thread. Tail or fade is still a decision of mine so I would be happy with whatever stats and data you can put up. thanks"

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 08:14 PM

5/8/12 9:04pm	Win	Pending	5/8/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9718 Atlanta Hawks 1st Half +5½ -115* <small>vs</small> Boston Celtics

5/8/12 8:57pm	Win	Pending	5/8/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9717 Boston Celtics/Atlanta Hawks 1st Half Over 73 -115*

5/8/12 8:39pm	Win	Pending	5/8/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9718 Atlanta Hawks 1st Half +5½ -105* <small>vs</small> Boston Celtics

I could have bet +7.5 here but I don't like to invest too heavily on 1 side when I don't have a strong lean. No reason to over invest when I'm not sure. Over 73 is a good number had to go with it expecting the teams to finally pick it up late or for the refs to help them out.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by bluevase

I am unable to send you a reply message do to my low post count. forum policy

"the stats you gave out and the live tips that you shared. I tailed you on some and cashed. I just wanted to make username so I can post on your thread to thank you on it. Continue to do what you do best and I will be looking at your thread. Tail or fade is still a decision of mine so I would be happy with whatever stats and data you can put up. thanks"

Oh thats what you meant. your message was vague was not sure what you found helpful so I was curious. I haven't seen any thread that breaks down some of the intricacies of live in play like mine.... and I didn't even go into indepth detail most of it was just talking and writing as I speak. But very often during the regular season I kept thinking I said in my thread not to do this, and I did it anyway- and it backfires or etc.

Wait was I saying, I was trying to make a point. I went on a gigantic win streak during the regular season in live in play and I dropped some of my tips in this thread before the all star break. All that stuff I used to identify the easy games in the regular season I think will apply to high scoring and low scoring games next season also.

These playoffs have been more about betting on the patterns. Like waiting for totals to reach their lowest or highest point where I can comfortably bet an under or over. Where as in the regular season I was live in play betting and just smashing the totals with 2 minutes to spare winning comfortably a large amount of the time- in the playoffs I'm winning by the hair of alot more of the time. That's why I stopped giving out live in play advice- I'm just freestyling... anytime I think I find a specific pattern it changes up on me and I have to keep adjusting what I'm betting on in the games; from game to game I mean not the same game.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 09:42 PM

Showing Wagers 1 - 11 of 11

5/8/12 10:28pm

Pending

5/8/12 10:30pm Props Basketball 5308 LAL scores 20+ points first -150* vs DEN scores 20+ points first

5/8/12 10:23pm

Win

Pending

5/8/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9717 Boston Celtics/Atlanta Hawks Under 178 -110*

5/8/12 10:18pm

Loss

Pending

5/8/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9717 Boston Celtics/Atlanta Hawks Over 176½ -110*

Looked like they were gonna play the foul game at the end. I missed my chance with all the + points Celtics were getting +9.5 in particular and after that I didn't see anything else. I was hardly watching the game in the 3rd quarter and it probably cost me a big bet in the 2nd half.

Lol at how the celtics played it in the last 16 seconds that was funny. Foul to give wait 8 seconds. Doh! Get steal, don't get shot off. Doh!

Just throwing a little action bet on the Lakers pre game no big deal if I lose =p.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 10:20 PM

5/8/12 11:08pm	Win		Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Lakers 1st Quarter Over 48 +105*

5/8/12 11:00pm		Loss	Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Lakers 1st Quarter Under 47½ -125*

I was liking the under 47.5 and was dipping under very well until an offensive explosion of 6 points in less than 2 minutes and the game sped up from there on out. I smelled a rat and I ate the juice. No big deal my big bets are for 1st halves and end games so I'm still flying in the green. I let the 2nd quarter develop most of the time before I bet the 1st half unless I have a very strong lean.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 10:31 PM

Pace of this game is annoying. I put a marker down when the total for the game was 194- 1st quarter was at 47.5 which went over by 2 points thanks to late scoring that just nudged it over but game back to a slower pace which it was at originally. The pace the Lakers are trying to get it at by playing good defense(usually the winning team will be the one enforcing pace, like most of the spurs wins were high scoring and alot of the laker wins are at a slower pace while denver is winning when it is faster, not always the rule with many exceptions but it does happen). Now the game is so choppy I'm afraid to bet a total until late in this 1st half.

I suspected this might happen could have bet the under early in the 1st half- but I didn't wanna go out on a limb oh well.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 10:55 PM

5/8/12 11:46pm	Win	Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Lakers 1st Half Over 89 -120*

5/8/12 11:38pm	Win	Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets 1st Half Over 47 -120* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Lakers

Wait till late in 1st half. Jab step fade away and it's good =p.

**H1Cypher** · 05-08-12, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Pace of this game is annoying. I put a marker down when the total for the game was 194- 1st quarter was at 47.5 which went over by 2 points thanks to late scoring that just nudged it over but game back to a slower pace which it was at originally. The pace the Lakers are trying to get it at by playing good defense(usually the winning team will be the one enforcing pace, like most of the spurs wins were high scoring and alot of the laker wins are at a slower pace while denver is winning when it is faster, not always the rule with many exceptions but it does happen). Now the game is so choppy I'm afraid to bet a total until late in this 1st half.

I suspected this might happen could have bet the under early in the 1st half- but I didn't wanna go out on a limb oh well.

That 'marker' I was talking about very small bet. I realized this a couple games ago. Now I have a better number than the one put up at half time. I have winning bets in the first half. I'm set I can go to sleep with profit in the first half and a great bet in the 2nd half *if* I had made it a big bet. Like I suspected pre game, how did I notice this? Patterns I've noticed in the playoffs with games of totals like this. Now whether it hits or not- like I said I could go to sleep with a great half time bet pending and a winning first half.

Patterns. Win or lose i'm in a great situation. But I'll stick to my usual routine and try to get a winner in the 2nd half. I may consider this strategy from here on out.

At the very least I may bet early in the game giving myself a cushion for when I bet the over late in the game. Get what I'm sayin? This is how you break down a first half

.

Totals at half time are 97.5 for the 2nd half giving me a boat load of edge, value, what ever you wanna call it.

**H1Cypher** · 05-09-12, 12:28 AM


5/9/12 1:00am	Win		Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9722 Los Angeles Lakers +12 -110* <small>vs</small> Denver Nuggets

5/9/12 12:59am		Loss	Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets Over 102½ -115* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Lakers

5/9/12 12:51am	Win			5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets Over 97½ -115* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Lakers

5/9/12 12:34am	Win		Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets Over 95½ -115* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Lakers

5/9/12 12:31am		Loss	Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9722 Los Angeles Lakers -110* <small>vs</small> Denver Nuggets

5/8/12 10:57pm		Loss	Pending	5/8/12 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9721 Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Lakers Under 194 -110*

The late decisions were easy in this one. Was looking like a genius until I was not. Just stick to some of the general guide lines and don't bet unders early with explosive teams. Doesn't matter though I proved a nice point just getting 4 points on the total compared to what it was at halftime.

**H1Cypher** · 05-09-12, 02:56 PM

Yesterdays results for Drive to the Finals fans:

Kobe Bryant	3%	43	6	5	54
Carlos Boozer	12%	19	13	6	38
Jameer Nelson	1%	27	4	5	36
JaVale McGee	0%	21	14	1	36
Josh Smith	25%	13	16	6	35
Andre Miller	0%	24	2	8	34
Luol Deng	1%	24	8	1	33
Al Horford	0%	19	11	3	33
Danny Granger	4%	25	4	3	32
Rajon Rondo	2%	13	5	12	30
Andrew Bynum	2%	16	11	1	28
Spencer Hawes	0%	11	14	3	28
Darren Collison	0%	19	2	6	27
Paul Pierce	4%	16	6	4	26
Jrue Holiday	1%	16	5	4	25
Arron Afflalo	0%	19	5	1	25
Glen Davis	25%	15	8	1	24

Had a feeling they would bury themselves with the Big Baby(Glen Davis) pick. Had to take it though with Magic about to be eliminated if you didn't already if you were playing the NBA game.

Todays top picks for the fans:

Hot Picks:

R. Gay (35%)
M. Conley (20%)
A. Stoudemire (19%)
C. Anthony (7%)
L. James (4%)

D. Wade and Chris Paul are also at 4%. Zach Randolph(3%), Blake Griffin(2%), Marc Gasol(1%), Chris Bosh(1%), and JR smith(1%).

Looks like I was on point about all my Series calls except for maybe the Lakers. Can you believe the Los Angeles Kings swept the St. Louis Blues- I'm like a jinx thought I'd throw in a sweetener to 1 of my open parlays and the Kings pull off franchise history with their first sweep ever. Lol, history...

**H1Cypher** · 05-09-12, 07:16 PM

Showing Wagers 1 - 6 of 6

5/9/12 7:33pm

Win

Pending

5/9/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9724 Miami Heat 1st Half -5½ -130* vs New York Knicks

5/9/12 5:16pm

Pending

5/9/12 7:00pm Props Basketball 4031 L.James points over 28 -115* vs L.James points under 28

4/27/12 7:16pm

Open

5 Team Parlay

Win

4/28/12 1:05pm NBA Basketball 502 Chicago Bulls -515* vs Philadelphia 76ers

Win

4/28/12 7:05pm NBA Basketball 886 Indiana Pacers (Series) -970* vs Orlando Magic (Series)

Win

4/27/12 9:05pm Props Hockey 10002 Not Nashville Predators in 4 games -1200* vs Nashville Predators win series 4-0

Win

4/28/12 7:35pm Props Hockey 10143 Los Angeles Kings series games won +3 -1188* vs St. Louis Blues series games won

I thought the totals were too sharp for this 1st half; I've said several times here capping heat totals live is not easy. When the number was at 97.5 I wanted to take over but I know Heat can lock down Knicks easy and can also go on a shooting slump themselves. When total was at 98 as the lasts chance and there were no team totals p wit h5 minutes to go I thought it would go over or maybe 98, 97 either way would be very close. I sensed this early on- and I didn't bet on anything big. I got the Heat at -5.5 though which I thought was a good bet- and didn't think much else after. I did take an extra minute to think about it- and it cost me -115 to -130, an easy bet I know.

Hopefully no one lost money betting on the Heat under kept going from 98 to 97.5 dropping by half a point or chalking the under.

That's just a prop I played pre game for fun and just a parlay I played for fun late april. Don't play parlays much but did some after winning some right before the playoffs started.

**H1Cypher** · 05-09-12, 08:03 PM

5/9/12 8:51pm

Win

Pending

5/9/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9723 New York Knicks/Miami Heat 3rd Quarter Over 44½ -115*

I don't usually bet third quarters but when I do ____________.

I only bet this cause I had a strong lean. I don't know if the lean came as a result of what happened in the 1st half or not. I looked at the number and I said to myself this is too low they will break it. Just seemed like game was picking up, some calls were being blown, game was corresponding with what I was seeing and total was not high enough. Just felt strongly about this.

**H1Cypher** · 05-09-12, 08:35 PM

5/9/12 9:20pm	Win	Pending	5/9/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9723 New York Knicks/Miami Heat Over 193 -110*

5/9/12 9:12pm	Win	Pending	5/9/12 7:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9723 New York Knicks +15½ -115* <small>vs</small> Miami Heat

5/9/12 5:16pm	Win	Pending	5/9/12 7:00pm Props Basketball 4031 L.James points over 28 -115* <small>vs</small> L.James points under 28

Big bet was Knicks/Heat over 193 was the most logical move late in the 2nd half and it came through like a regular season live in play- with ease.

**H1Cypher** · 05-09-12, 08:44 PM

By the way to help cut my thinking time in live in play I wasn't using covers scoreboard at all in the regular season, but in the playoffs I use it as a quick reference as to what it thinks the score may be. I find the 5dimes numbers have been accurate as well, but it gives me a different perspective on the score while I live in play cap the total. I do not follow what the covers.com nba scoreboard tells me and I find myself betting on the OPPOSITE side of what total it is saying late in the game. That may have alot to do with the scoreboard there not factoring in fouls and change of pace in a game 2 very important things.

it still is a good reference and helps cut my thinking time if you're not using as a tool you should but only as a tool still have to use use your brain. that scoreboard can't factor change of pace and referee calls being blown 2 very important things i try to be aware of.

Gonna just enjoy this game Clipper game not gonna post my live in play results. Playoffs have been pretty boring lately I agree but I'm thinking about the score part of the time so its okay I guess

**H1Cypher** · 05-10-12, 03:31 PM

Yesterdays results for drive to the finals fans:

Carmelo Anthony	7%	35	8	1	44
LeBron James	4%	29	8	7	44
Marc Gasol	1%	23	7	4	34
Zach Randolph	3%	19	10	1	30
Chris Paul	4%	19	6	4	29
Dwyane Wade	4%	19	4	3	26
Blake Griffin	2%	15	11	0	26
Chris Bosh	1%	19	7	0	26
Mike Bibby	0%	10	6	6	22
Tyson Chandler	0%	7	11	3	21
Mo Williams	0%	20	0	1	21
Rudy Gay	35%	14	5	0	19
Amar'e Stoudemire	19%	14	4	1	19
Mario Chalmers	0%	10	6	3	19
Landry Fields	0%	12	5	1	18
Mike Conley	20%	9	2	6	17

It seems to me like the bookmaker numbers are well scouted enough that if you got good odds on all the player props they put up and every day bet unders, you would eventually come out with money at the end of the playoffs. I wonder, or are the bookies to smart for this.

Truth is- no one would ever test this theory just blindly bet unders on props. + with the limit on props who would be willing to test this out? not enough risk / reward to even test it probably.

you get what im saying- just seems to me like there are alot of unders for player props meaning yes being selective is required, but what if you blindly just bet unders. bookmakers know people love to bet overs and i was using this to my advantage during the regular season.

Seems like it might still work in the playoffs I expected bigger games from players but a lot of the games have been ugly. I won't be testing this theory though. I have other things that are working much better for me, just some food for thought. Actually occurred to the first day of the playoffs too and I remember mentioning it in this thread.

Todays hot picks for nba drive to the finals fans:

Hot Picks:

C. Boozer (32%)
J. Smith (23%)
A. Horford (7%)
J. Johnson (7%)
T. Lawson (5%)

3%: Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Jrue Holiday, Paul Pierce
2%: Danilo Gallinari, Luol Deng
1%: Pau Gasol, Jeff Teague, Javale Mcgee, Andre Miller, Kevin Garnett

**H1Cypher** · 05-10-12, 07:42 PM

5/10/12 8:30pm		Pending	5/10/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9731 Atlanta Hawks/Boston Celtics 1st Half Under 87½ -105*

5/10/12 8:22pm	Win	Pending	5/10/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9731 Atlanta Hawks/Boston Celtics 1st Quarter Under 43½ -125*

Totals after 2nd quarter was over were 86.5.

I picked under cause the pace was so slow and shots weren't falling. Then immediately pace picked back up before dropping back down again and luckily going under this total.

Totals continue to be sharp as a tack for the playoffs compared to the playoffs where it wasn't nearly like this. So many of the games have just been under fests though *shrug*

I think I'll just take it easy today look for some nice angles in live in play I already don't like how this game is going for live in play betting. You never know there is usually at least one sweet spot per game.

**H1Cypher** · 05-10-12, 08:10 PM

5/10/12 8:55pm	Win	Pending	5/10/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9732 Boston Celtics 1st Half Over 45 -115* <small>vs</small> Atlanta Hawks

5/10/12 8:30pm	Loss	Pending	5/10/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9731 Atlanta Hawks/Boston Celtics 1st Half Under 87½ -105*

Totals can be sharp but they just can't pierce me. I'm too much like water.

When I bet over 45 for Celtics totals for 1st half were 88.5 over or under(under juiced -125), and I don't remember exactly what Hawks total was 43 or 43.5.

It did go under 88.5 but I didn't want to lose the same bet twice. Sometimes I'll take the risk not this time not with 1 point difference.

Isn't weird Kobe got sick in Colorado, must've ate some bad pussy. I mean sushi. =), if you don't get it you aren't an NBA fan.

**H1Cypher** · 05-10-12, 11:07 PM

5/10/2012	Team Total	Win		Basketball - 9736 Denver Nuggets team total over 53 -115 for 1st Half
5/10/2012	Team Total	Win		Basketball - 9736 Denver Nuggets team total over 53 -115 for 1st Half
5/10/2012	Team Total	Win		Basketball - 9736 Denver Nuggets team total under 55½ -115 for 1st Half
5/10/2012	Team Total		Loss	Basketball - 9736 Denver Nuggets team total under 52½ -115 for 1st Half

Someone seems curious to see my results so I'll keep posting them. I messed this one up badly, the big bet was Denver over 53. Thought the total would be rising Figured Nuggets would end 1st quarter with 32 points. It did actually rise up to 55.5 but I was kind of afraid there.

They scored 17 points in 10 minutes after scoring 11. Anyway, I messed up pretty bad betting on the 1st half score early. Late in the 2nd quarter when the total was 51.5 I could not bet the under or the over there with my current bets.... because of my early bets my hands were tied.

If ya watched the 2nd quarter I got the bail out pretty bad. Offensive goal tending on Pau with less than 3 seconds to go. Had I bet with more structure rather I may have not needed to be bailed out. Betting on the first commercial 2 minutes into the game I should know better

**H1Cypher** · 05-11-12, 05:07 AM

No bets for the 2nd half of both games yesterday. The point total in the Laker game I could have picked over, I wanted to pick over, but again I thought I was dealing with another super sharp total; and late in the game I thought there was a good chance a team might let up and screw me on the late game total.

I had a nice day and I just booked the win. Should've taken the Laker + points late in the game knowing the bench squad would cut the gap. Why didn't I take the +22? It was super late in the game, and Denver still had good players out meanwhile Lakers had Christian Eyanga and Josh McRoberts out there.

Sure now it seems like I should have taken the + points for the Lakers and the over for both teams but I can't get them all right.

After the pace went to a furious speed in the 3rd quarter I wasn't sure if it would slow down again or not, and had no leans myself. Finally when the score for live in play betting was 194 I kinda leaned over but not enough time to make up my mind. Then once it hit 196.5 I knew it was too sharp and didn't wanna pull the trigger there either.

I make a lot of my live in play bets based on a guide line I've worked out in my head through trial and error and instinct. Almost all my tips for regular season success are here. Next season if anyone that has read this thread still isn't live in play betting for the regular season. for shame because with patience you can work out a fine edge for yourself.

On a side note.......
This has been one of the worse and least compelling first round of the playoffs I have watched in a while.

**H1Cypher** · 05-11-12, 07:09 AM

May 11th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Houston Astros +121 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -131 risk 1 unit

Will have at least 1 more tomorrow. It was either this the yankees, the under in the yankee game or the under in the red sox game. I ended up going with the Astros for the 7 pm game.

Wrong thread. Check out my MLB fade plays:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1697688-mlb-fade-plays-i-pick-em-keep-track-money-fading-me.html

Oh well I may as well add this looks like another day filled with under prop winners. Some prop players lost playing the under in the Kobe prop just cause he was sick. Unders on Kobe props were chalked alot before the game.

Boozer is way at the bottom of this list i didn't include him. 3 points and 13 boards, not bad o the boards but 3 points. Just like I said earlier in my thread pathetic like Lamar Odom. A tiger doesn't change their stripes.

Kevin Garnett	1%	28	14	2	44
Ty Lawson	5%	32	5	6	43
Luol Deng	2%	19	17	3	39
Kobe Bryant	3%	31	2	4	37
Josh Smith	23%	18	9	4	31
Andre Iguodala	0%	20	4	7	31
Paul Pierce	3%	18	5	7	30
Andrew Bynum	3%	11	16	3	30
Al Horford	7%	15	9	4	28
Richard Hamilton	0%	19	8	1	28
Marvin Williams	0%	16	8	3	27
Kenneth Faried	0%	15	11	0	26
Rajon Rondo	5%	14	2	8	24
Corey Brewer	0%	18	4	2	24
Danilo Gallinari	2%	12	4	7	23
Jrue Holiday	3%	14	3	4	21
Joe Johnson	7%	17	1	2	20

**H1Cypher** · 05-12-12, 04:33 PM

No live in play for me yesterday. I just wasn't feeling the totals, had I played it I would have won. Total is at 79.9 late in the 1st half. I'm looking at this game, and I'm thinking under. Then I go over everything and how this series has gone. I don't bet it- but of course it goes over which was my instinct was tellin me. Refs get involved and players speed it up the last 6 minutes would have been an easy win.

Memphis to score 10 points first -120 in the 2nd half was what I went with. The game was like deja vu going a lot like the other games in the series. I forgot which game but there was a game exactly like this before, and in that game Grizz scored 10 points first in both halves. That is why I picked that. My first time betting on the playoffs just like I mention on early in my thread this is my first time betting on NBA even though I've been watching it for over 5 years. Also Grizzlies money line pre game, kinda wish I had went 'big' on that. Success is a double edged sword cause I'm so good at one specific thing, live in play I have difficulty making large pre game bets now. A leak created by success. Will have to work that out somehow.

Hot Picks:

K. Bryant (39%)
T. Lawson (18%)
A. Bynum (12%)
D. Gallinari (10%)
A. Miller (6%)

Pau(4%), Kenneth Faried(3%), Jrue Holiday(2%), Kevin garnett(2%), rajon rondo(1%), andre iguodola(1%), javale mcgee(1%).

1 game yesterday it wasn't hard for the fans to get all their top picks to the top of the board. Except even some of those didn't win their props because of the sharp numbers/inflated numbers they put up on player props. Losing by a half or full point has to sting in a player prop. The big % pick Randolph was a hit with over 35% of the players using him for game 6. Looks like another day where there were more under prop winnners than overs by a decent margin.

Zach Randolph	35%	18	16	1	35
Marc Gasol	13%	23	9	3	35
Blake Griffin	8%	17	5	6	28
Mike Conley	21%	13	4	9	26
Eric Bledsoe	0%	14	4	6	24
Chris Paul	8%	11	5	7	23
Rudy Gay	13%	13	6	3	22

**H1Cypher** · 05-12-12, 04:48 PM

Kobe has a flu and is throwing up. He has had plenty of good games with a flu. His totals on the under were chalked at -160 or worse before tip. Chris Paul strains his groin, a bad injury for a point guard robs you so much of your movement and explosiveness and yet that under wasn't chalked nearly as much. Leading me to believe these prop players are pretty square. A word I don't use often.

**H1Cypher** · 05-12-12, 07:54 PM

5/12/12 8:39pm

Pending

5/12/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9503 Philadelphia 76ers 1st Half Under 51 -105* vs Boston Celtics

Didn't plan on betting in this game just wanna see how the first game in the series goes. When I saw this number I had to bet it though. The next number at the next commercial after this one was 47.5 over / under for the Sixers. looked like a sweet winner then as it happens in basketball Sixers swent on a run and now it is in jeopardy. Oh well I've been lucky enough times =p

**H1Cypher** · 05-12-12, 08:51 PM

5/12/12 9:27pm

Win

Pending

5/12/12 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9503 Philadelphia 76ers 3rd Quarter Over 16 -115* vs Boston Celtics

I had to bet this because this has been such a game of runs. Go on a big scoring spell then on a dry spell. Well this time the dry spell came early and there was still almost 9 minutes to play with Philly having possession of the ball. 8 shots in 9 minutes, in a game like this. I'll take it. Yeah could have one of those 14 point quarters but I didn't see it happening. Going with the trend of the game. Could call it a game now or wait and see if one more opportunity will arise in the 4th.

**H1Cypher** · 05-12-12, 09:11 PM

Commercials went up at a weird time for totals. Numbers were too sharp leaning under but way too easy to lose. Game is obviously too close for point spread here. Nothing going no reason to rock the boat with a degenerate play or force anything turn such a good game for me into a bad one.