My NBA Picks Round 1.

**H1Cypher** · 03-21-12, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Will try to get in another live in play bet if I see something good. Didn't bother posting any of my winners for the last couple games with any of the appropriate tags. Was more into explaining some of the techniques I use in live play so it just slipped my mind, won't update it to the record.

Official Player Prop: Andrea Bargnani Points under 18.5 -125 to win: .5 units

Lately I've been going by the stats more than my instinct + stats to support instinct and it hasn't been working out as well. See how this one goes.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 10-6 +3.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.21 units
Total for the thread: 26-11. +7.735 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-11 Units not tracked.

Huge movement on Bargnani in my favor again. -175 under and +145 on the over 18.5 now at 5dimes just changed in the last couple minutes.

**H1Cypher** · 03-21-12, 06:08 PM

I'm not betting this but ever since I started tracking this. It's called fade the announcer- when the people talking about a team to win a game or do something that is fifty / fifty or only mildly favored the announcers are 0-6. So far I'm watching these guys pre game talking up the Knicks- if the Knicks lose fade the announcer goes 7-0. I'm not betting this just keeping track lately.

So if the pre game chatter is talking up a team to win a game like these guys were jerking off the Knicks. Knicks will lose bringing Fade the Announcer to 7-0.

Works pretty well in NCAA march madness with the guys sitting at the table courtisde talking also but maybe thats cause of all the early upsets.

**H1Cypher** · 03-21-12, 06:12 PM

Not taking it seriously I just think it's funny that announcers have gone 0-6 on pre game jerking off a team or even early in the game like Knicks are being jerked right now.

**H1Cypher** · 03-21-12, 11:20 PM

Official Player Prop: Andrea Bargnani Points under 18.5 -125 to win: .5 units

6 points for the game for Bargnani. Commercials were pretty speedy today and lines were up kinda slow down pretty fast didn't get a chance to put nothin up for a live in play bet. Everyone did well today on the forum from what I noticed.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 11-6 +4.025units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.21 units
Total for the thread: 27-11. +8.235 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-11 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-22-12, 02:57 PM

Official Player Prop: Trevor Ariza 11.5 points under -115 to win: .5 units

I think it's gonna stay at -115 or move towards the over.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 11-6 +4.025units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.21 units
Total for the thread: 27-11. +8.235 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-11 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-22-12, 05:51 PM

I was going to play Samuel Dalembert rebounds under 7.5 +105. Had a nice write up also- then I noticed alot of my predictions were just that. GS is one of the worse rebounding teams and regularly gives up big rebounding numbers to their opponents bigs.

Long rebounds should usually be gotten by guards and forwards right? In their earlier meeting teams shot a combined 54 total 3 attempts. Well with any rebound the ball you can't tell where it goes- cause Dalembert snagged 7 boards in 20 minutes.

Dalembert going over 7.5 boards is based mostly on his playing time. If he gets 30 minutes or more he will likely go over. With Camby now his back up it is even more unnlikely he hits 30 especially with Mchales confused sub rotation.

After noticing how bad Golden State is at rebounding I decided not to post anything- Line shifted to -125 on the under now. Statistically Dalembert should be able to get over 7.5 boards here. Not playing it just wonder what the people betting on it were thinking. Maybe +105 was just too good to pass up on the under for that guy(no longer available at +105). No play for me for sure though.

**H1Cypher** · 03-22-12, 11:41 PM

Official Player Prop: Trevor Ariza 11.5 points under -115 to win: .5 units

Trevor finishes the game with 2 points. From 11-6 to 12-6 on official player props.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.21 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +8.735 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-11 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Official Basketball Bet: Phoenix Suns at OKC Thunder -5.5 1st half -115 to win: .5 units
Official Basketball Bet: Los Angeles Lakers -2 1st Quarter at Wizards -110 to win: .5 units

1-1 on official plays. -.75 units. OKC comes back covers the original total of 9.5 winning by 11(they were down at halftime). They also cover the adjusted spread bet at halftime.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 10-5 +4.1units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.21 units
Total for the thread: 26-15. +8.31 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-10 Units not tracked.

Typo -.075 units not -.75 units knew something didn't make sense. won .5 lost .575 that day- meaning it was -.075 units not -.75 units. Made the mistake on page 8 March 17.
4.21 +.75 -.075 = 4.885

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-11 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 06:07 PM

Official Player Props: Ray Allen Points + Assists Under 16.5 -115 to win: .5 unit

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-11 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 06:11 PM

Slightly more risky than the other 2 unders I picked this week. Most NBA players can light it up. Allen is just as likely to light it up as Bargnani but the total is lower. Less angles here than the other 2 picks more statistical. With Ariza I had several angles no one would think I'd be using to cap his player prop.

**BernardMadoff** · 03-23-12, 06:25 PM

Played any first 10+ lately?

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Played any first 10+ lately?

Yes and no. Dallas to score 15 points first vs La Lakers -150. Was a very easy win thanks to the Mavs and Lakers.

I say yes and no because
As I recall it read: "Dal scores 15 points first -150 for 2nd Half" No + there

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 07:14 PM

Ray Allen is not playing so the prop is a push. Wish I had known this I would've went with 3pt field golas under 10.5 for this game was already thinking of it at the start of the day, a prop I usually don't play since I think their numbers are pretty sharp. Oh well too late now. Just bemoaning my luck for a second.

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 08:02 PM

Unofficial Live in Play: Boston Celtics over 49.5 -130 first half

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 08:03 PM

Still up while Pietrus is down- someone will come and shoot the foul for him he will not be able to return. Refs will start calling the game tight- I expect fouls. Over 98.5 could be good too.

I have under 101.5 but I like over 49.5 for Celtics with a little under 6- commerical time bet is still up by the way. Also considering they are shooting a foul.. and refs will likely start calling this game tight cause of this horrible injury.

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 08:07 PM

Hollins is shooting the ft's.

**H1Cypher** · 03-23-12, 08:24 PM

Unofficial Live in Play: Boston Celtics over 49.5 -130 first half

My first live in play total bet loss in the thread. Could've easily went to 50 and probably should have ended with 50 how it went and how it was called after. Can't blame Hollins why did Doc choose that bench sub to shoot the fts- and then left him in the game on top of that.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-12 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-24-12, 01:22 AM

Weird circumstances today. If Ray plays I think I made the right call- and hope it would have went well. Had I known he wasn't playing I play under 10.5 3s made for game(and despite 3 quick 3s in that game, it still went well under 10.5 3s made for both teams)- which I decided not to go with rather than Allen. Allen doesn't play- and that prop hits. Could've played 2 props for 1 game but I tend to avoid that.

Then the ft's missed cause that team total to go just under. Some unusual circumstances but that's expected when it comes to balls and holes I guess. Weirdest day in a while for me.

**H1Cypher** · 03-24-12, 01:35 AM

That is only 2 weird things. I didn't mention the others I wanted to take North Carolina vs Ohio under 132 live play when they started off a bit hot. I know for a fact if I make this bet all I have to do is dodge OT- which hasn't happened at all in this NCAA tournament. I'm watching the Jazz and Nugget game and decide not to bet it.

Score? 63 - 63. Then OT total comes up- I'm thinking under ehre as well. I don't bet that just cause of how the day is running no bet again. It hits- finally something normal for the day.

Philly game. Philly goes scoreless 2 points in 3 minutes. Then the last 2 minutes refuses to score to go over 100- Iguodola and Brand thought it was funny enough on the bench. Not only did they find it funny but they were telling their rookies out on the floor to STOP scoring lol.

Jazz vs Nuggets. I hit the half time total over, bink. At the end of the game I am waiting for the peak total so I can hit that under too. Sure enough variance bites me in the ass again. 223.5 under for the whole game- and even in the last 2 minutes of the game with no reason to play both teams refuse to top scoring.

100% positive I would have made all the right bets in these situations and in all but 1 would have suffered some terrible beats in all 4 games- all in 1 day. That is what I mean by today was a weird day.

**H1Cypher** · 03-24-12, 06:21 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Player Prop Greg Monroe 27.5 Points + Rebounds under -125

**H1Cypher** · 03-24-12, 08:40 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Tyreke Evans Rebounds + assists under 9.5 Sac vs GSW -140

Only reason this isn't an official player prop is because of the -140 juice. I've made t he -140 official plays before I realize this but this one isn't as strong as those picks.

**H1Cypher** · 03-25-12, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Player Prop Greg Monroe 27.5 Points + Rebounds under -125

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Tyreke Evans Rebounds + assists under 9.5 Sac vs GSW -140

Monroe finishes the game with 12 points and 5 rebounds.

Evans dropped to -130 20 minutes before tip. Evans finished with 4 assists and 1 rebound. Leans/Unofficial Plays go 2-0 bringing the total record for that to 17-12. On a nice mini run with my player props this past couple days.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 17-12 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-25-12, 02:17 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Player Prop Kevin Durant over 27.5 points -130

Nothing I liked for the first game going to look for an under also. See if I can keep the under streak going. Wouldn't be surprised if this gets bet up to -160 as the game approaches.

Wish you could buy points for reduced juice in some cases like this with Durant. Not that he'll go over I just think over 28.5 is just as likely as 27.5 and wouldnt mind to reduce the juice and sell a point.

**H1Cypher** · 03-25-12, 09:39 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Player Prop Kevin Durant over 27.5 points -130

Durant finishes the game with 28 points for a win. Had I bought a point if I was given the option it would've been a half point and I wouldve pushed. Whew good thing I didn't get the choice lol. He definitely should have hit 30. He barely got a touch in the 4th quarter. Westbrook will go through fancy play stretches and just not give the ball to Durant sometimes I notice this. Anyway a win is a win. I definitely was happy with the decision through out the entire game- win or lose I know it was the right call if you saw the game you could see this. Leans/Unofficial Plays go 1-0 bringing the record to 18-12. Mini streak of player props is turning into a real streak.

I didn't find any unders I liked so I didn't have anything else today.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 18-12 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-26-12, 12:18 AM

Hitting 66% over 69 picks. Alot of my losses are -110 and -120. If you were playing -130 only and flat betting every time you would have to hit 56.5% to break even. -110 only of course is 52.3%.

**H1Cypher** · 03-26-12, 05:57 PM

No props I like for anything. Props I was looking at but decided not to go with were: Tyson Chandler over 20.5 points + boards. Melo points 19.5 over before the line moved and Amare was declared out. Monta Ellis under 17.5. Greg Monroe over 27.5 boards + points +120 and Al Jefferson under 9.5 boards.

Decied not go with any of them though. Not for leans or official plays.

**H1Cypher** · 03-26-12, 06:45 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: La Clippers -3 vs New Orleans Hornets 1st quarter -115

Clippers have been coming out strong in most of their 1st quarters. Hopefully they can keep it up here.

**H1Cypher** · 03-26-12, 11:55 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: La Clippers -3 vs New Orleans Hornets 1st quarter -115

Leans/Unofficial Plays go 1-0 bringing the record for those picks to 19-12. 5 Player Props in a row. 6-1 my last 7.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 19-12 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-27-12, 01:18 AM

Having a hot month of march. Only capper hotter than me is billyuni in the forum from what I can tell. I'm like Rodney Dangerfield I get no respect.

**Laissez Faire** · 03-27-12, 03:52 PM

good plays my dude

**H1Cypher** · 03-27-12, 05:17 PM

Thanks, hopefully after a compliment I won't lose like I have in the past in this thread =p.

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Kevin Love points + rebounds 39.5 over -125

The lineup is pretty thin. Love is averaging the most minutes in the league. They are still in the playoff hunt and Love is putting up MVP caliber numbers. In the month of march he is 9-4 going over 39 boards and points. He is also 9-4 going over 26 points in the month of march which is also a prop with the over juiced at -140. In his last 5 he is only 3-2 1 against Sac and 1 against the Spurs. In the Spurs game they were being blown out and he played limited minutes. In the OKC game he was already over the total before the overtime started so the double OT didn't help at all in him reaching his total in that game.

He plays better over guys his size obviously and memphis has some size and length with Gasol down there. Last time they played he torched them for 27 points but that was from the PF position when he was being guarded by Dante Cunningham.

Still the team has to go with someone and it is Love as long as they are in the game there is a strong chance he will go over the total. Tough time choosing which one to go with Love over 26 points or Love points + boards.

I will look for an under because if I find good angles on those the player doesn't have to hit a limited amount of shots- rather they just have to either miss or not get the attempts in the first place.

**H1Cypher** · 03-27-12, 05:46 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers 3 point field goals made under 12 -125

Hopefully they don't light it up and torch me.

**H1Cypher** · 03-27-12, 05:47 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers 3 point field goals made under 12 -125

Hopefully they don't light it up and torch me.

Loves prop changed. I beat the odds against by a full 20 cents went from -125 to -145. When I was picking that prop if his over 26 points was juiced at -130 like it is right now there is a good chance I would have chosen that instead.

**H1Cypher** · 03-27-12, 10:39 PM

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers 3 point field goals made under 12 -125

As 2 teams they had 12 together. Meeks chipped in with another 7 3 pointers by himself to bring it to 19.

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Kevin Love points + rebounds 39.5 over -125

28 points and 11 boards for Mr. Love for it to go just under.

Actually had a chance to arb out of both of these as seems to often happen in props if you watch some of the movement during the day. Had I arbed I could've gotten the Love prop at +140 and the 3 point field goals would've just been a push. Might've been a mistake going with the 6ers and Cavs 3 point field goals with Meeks in and Iguodola out. Leans/Unofficial Plays go 0-2 bringing the record for that to 19-14.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 19-14 Units not tracked.

**H1Cypher** · 03-28-12, 05:43 PM

Disappointed with myself yesterday. Should have went 0-1... or maybe 1-0.... or maybe even 1-1. That Philly Cleveland pick was too out of left field even for me. The Love pick I'm fine with.

Nothing for today play I really liked was Dwight Howard points + rebounds under 37 -140 but because of the juice decided not to put it up as either an official or unofficial play.

So nothing for today as of now.