My NBA Picks Round 1.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 08:14 PM

Now 175.5 for this Heat game see much better to wait rather than get it in right before the 4th starts UNLESS like I said you are sure- or have some information- insight... see something etc.

With the way orlando plays- and the defensive spurts Miami goes in. Very tough team to cap live lines for especially for the end of the game. I've been doing the Miami live lines for the entire season. They are so on and off with their scoring on national tv.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 08:39 PM

Looks like the 4th quarter will be going under also. Thus going below 177.5. Could have still taken the under or the over before the 4th- depending on what you thought the score would be. As I said I was undecided at that point. Magic missed so many shots in the 4th.

When total was at 175.5 and 174 it is over or no play. At 177.5 you could have still played the under just understand you are no longer betting on the total you are now betting on the 4th quarter.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 08:46 PM

I never consider overtime when doing live lines. If overtime happens and I'm screwed so be it. It doesn't happen enough to be a factor.

If I've somehow convinced myself the game will go to OT- I just don't bet the live lines cause now I'm not thinking clearly. This has happened to me before.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 08:55 PM

this 54.5 over or under +100 for the over. it is a trap. it is a coin flip... and over is very likely to hit. why juice the under? unless someone smarter than me put big money on it

talking about the okc vs portland game. wish they had team total for okc in the 1st quarter but they elected not to put it up.

talking about the 1st quarter line that was just up.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 09:02 PM

I love the OKC Thunder. They are young and they don't let up. **** the Miami Hollywoods.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

this 54.5 over or under +100 for the over. it is a trap. it is a coin flip... and over is very likely to hit. why juice the under? unless someone smarter than me put big money on it

talking about the okc vs portland game. wish they had team total for okc in the 1st quarter but they elected not to put it up.

talking about the 1st quarter line that was just up.

Anyone who bit on -130 under 54.5 with over 6:30 to go in the 1st and them well on pace to go over 54.5 was an idiot who would have avoided a trap because Portland can't score more points than an NIT college basketball team.

How I wish they had put up the OKC team total for the 1st quarter. Fuckers.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 09:26 PM

Pace is likely to change from quarter to quarter- as subs come in. Officiating can also change pace. What I saw in the 1st holds weight for the 2nd quarter but I have to be able to adjust very fast... and not worry about what WAS happening. I am more concerned about what is happening and what will be happening in the game.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 09:36 PM

Can't play totals for this game like I said from the start it's OKC team total or nothing. Which is well on pace to hit for the 1st half. Portland isn't giving me enough to bet the total for the game. I like 94.5 for both teams in the first half but not confident at all.

Unless I see a big spurt or a big drout I don't bother with totals for the game until after halftime. They want you to, don't do it unless you know you see something.

Edit: typo edits

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 09:41 PM

OKC team total hits- and over 94.5 looks very good with 93 points and less than 50 seconds to go. OKC does not back down.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 10:31 PM

They pull bull shit like this all the time. Why are they juicing OKC over 108.5 right before the 4th? -125 over 108.5 for OKC.

I am probably wrong but I am guessing that is because there are alot of people who took OKC over 100 when pace slowed down a bit in the 3rd. Now they have to up the juice and hope the stragglers lose- and they make money. Assuming OKC does even go over 100.

I notice when a line gets hit hard they add several points onto it- and then start juicing it. Begging for people to take the other side- or charging you juice and hoping to middle so they can make more money during their live in play.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 10:47 PM

Now its getting sketchy. If you missed the multiple waves to correctly pick the right total- over or under. Now it is getting coin flippy..... teams still likely to go over... but score for live in play may have reached what I have termed the Peak or the Pinnacle. It is the point where it seems you should win- but always lose by a point or 2... because the total reached a point where it is very hard ot hit. 110.5 could be the peak for the OKC team total- but here your truly flipping coins cause youve missed the bus several times.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 11:03 PM

I love it when a plan comes together. Or in this case a game. Live capped this game perfectly. From quarter to quarter.

**H1Cypher** · 03-18-12, 11:12 PM

Anyone reading my text during the entire game could have easily hit up the team total for OKC. Which was my rec. the entire time from quarter 1. Could have got 2 easy winners first half total- and total for game.

Check my entire thread- I've never steered anyone wrong not in 1 live NBA game.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 01:46 AM

When I talk about NCAA live betting vs NBA live betting it is totally different; anything I say in relation to NCAA live betting is what it relates to- has almost zero relation to NBA live betting. So many of the aspects are beyond different I use a totally different strategy when I cap NCAA games.

More difficult to cap NBA live games if you ask me. The strategy for NCAA games is very cookie cutter clear cut. Talking about live in play betting.

**DoctorD** · 03-19-12, 02:04 AM

great job

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 07:17 PM

Thanks. Orlando Magic live in play betting is difficult for me. They take the most 3s in the league and can go hot or cold at any moment. No consistency, Dwights free throw shooting... but most of all it is the 3s taken. If you see them hitting their 3s- and a quarter line goes up I would not shy away from the over- but just for the quarter they can go cold too easily. You want to put as little time between you and your lean so your prediction is more likely to come true.

Bulls a good defensive team... Magic a high volume 3 point shooting team = tough time live in betting for me.

If I see something during the game I'll post it; I'm kinda sick too.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 07:25 PM

Nothing here watch if you bet the under they start knocking down 3s. You bet the over they remain ice cold. Not enough consistency with the Magic for me to live bet unless I got a strong lean.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 07:52 PM

Don't be afraid to take the under if you feel confident this pace and shooting will continue it is now at 82.5 for the first half. I myself am not sure so I will pass.

The total hasn't completely adjusted yet so if they stay at this pace your bet is money.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 08:02 PM

Erroneous line for the magic team total. Ass munchers do this at least oncea day at 5dimes.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 08:10 PM

Magic team total I don't think it is going to go back to 83.5. I am very undecided on this game though.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 08:22 PM

Such a ragged game. Those low numbers shouldn't have phased you. Pace kept dropping down no matter what it looked like they would do- looked like Magic would end the period with 35+ points thus the over 83.5 total for the Orlando Magic team for game.

After 82.5 for first half total for both teams it went up to 83.5 and looked like they would blast over for a minute- then went back to playing defense and like shit on offense.

After this game comes the Mavs and the Nuggets. Mavs top 5 in threes taken. Nuggets top 10. If they get hot they could smash the total... if the pace starts ragged like this game- it may continue to go up and down will be more difficult to tag an over or an under on a total for half or game.

2 low scoring quarters I would be surprised if they didn't heat up during 1 quarter at least.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 08:49 PM

For the first half I said those low totals shouldn't phase you 82.5 or 83.5 etc. had not totally adjusted to the pace that they were playing at. Score ended 81.

Obviously for the 2nd half it is not that way with the free throw factor at the end of the game- so if the number drops to low be very careful.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 09:05 PM

I'm sure most people know this but I'll add it anyway. How do you know if there will be ft's at the end of the game? the margin of the lead-

how will I know if the team will speed up the pace? depends on how they execute when down in the 4th quarter- previous knowledge gained from watching the team. thus helping you come to an educated decision on this 4th quarter.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 10:02 PM

No quarter line for this game. Means they are afraid of getting lit up as it is obvious this will go over with their total- the bookie. Why put up the halftime line? teams are hot and on fire- likely will go over 108.5

Bookie is hoping teams will slow down and bettors will be screwed.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 10:04 PM

Not betting the over 108.5. May not bet at all if they don't put up quarter lines.... if they continue to score like this despite playing slow in the half court- which I have them doing the 108.5 will be out of reach perhaps.

This is why I wish they had put up the 1st quarter line that they had.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 10:07 PM

if the pace was a bit faster in the half court I am sure it would go over 55.5 I am still taking over 55.5 for 1st quarter though. I think they'll make the shots.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

if the pace was a bit faster in the half court I am sure it would go over 55.5 I am still taking over 55.5 for 1st quarter though. I think they'll make the shots.

Patience pays off. When I take it I make it. 2 minutes to go and we have a winner already. Glad I was patient through out the bull shit first game.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 10:14 PM

108.5 will now be out of reach. Total will rise. You are playing the 2nd quarter total if you bet before 2nd quarter stats. You can wait and see what they will do.... if the bench can continue the scoring.

When I say betting the 2nd quarter total I mean they adjust it maybe by a half point or a point of what it was pre game + the 1st quarter score. and there you have the halftime line incase anyone is that oblivious

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 10:43 PM

And this is why I say keep the time between your prediction as small as possible. Now 108.5 looks sketchy but possible- and 114.5 is out of reach most likely like I said.

Lamar Odom is the man anyone who loses a halftime over that can be blamed. He ****** up the offensive chemistry right when he stepped on the court.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 10:50 PM

Even the 114.5 stragglers would hit the over. Looks like you can't stop fate no matter how out of reach it may be. Still undefeated on the thread in terms of live in play totals I make.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 10:56 PM

At least 9-0 in my live in plays. Started the thread with an 8-1 run. And I have a 7-1 or better run in there somewhere in the middle. You have underrated ballers.... I think my streaks are underrated.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 11:45 PM

If anyone is going to bet the total now be careful remember what I said about the 'Peak or Pinnacle'.

**H1Cypher** · 03-19-12, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

If anyone is going to bet the total now be careful remember what I said about the 'Peak or Pinnacle'.

Yep 218.5 was the peak now its at 212.5. Also there was 224 before halftime but there was plenty of time left at that point.

**H1Cypher** · 03-20-12, 12:08 AM

Score ends at 207 and yet another successful live in play venture.

**H1Cypher** · 03-21-12, 04:19 PM

Will try to get in another live in play bet if I see something good. Didn't bother posting any of my winners for the last couple games with any of the appropriate tags. Was more into explaining some of the techniques I use in live play so it just slipped my mind, won't update it to the record.

Official Player Prop: Andrea Bargnani Points under 18.5 -125 to win: .5 units

Lately I've been going by the stats more than my instinct + stats to support instinct and it hasn't been working out as well. See how this one goes.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 10-6 +3.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.21 units
Total for the thread: 26-11. +7.735 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 15-11 Units not tracked.