My NBA Picks Round 1.

[H1Cypher]

Going to be riding Aldridge OVER prop bets as well when the spots look right. That team depends so much on him. For them to have any chance he has to score ATLEAST 20+ points a game.

Nets are one of the worse teams at defending the 2 pt shot, and Humphries doesn't have much interest in playing defense. Alot of the overs against the nets at the PF position for scorers have cashed lately. I know this because I was researching the Nets when I played the David Lee prop vs them.

That is not a bad idea. I wanted to play Pau gasol points prop even before the game since I knew Bynum wasn't playing. Of course no player props for Gasol I don't think any book had them. Today they have it up but I dunno if I wanna play it today would have much rather played it yesterday.

[Speedy88]

Your more of an expert on props than me, but I've found big men more reliable than the guards. The only tough thing about playing props is usually to be on the right side you have to pay the -120 to -130 juice. Thanks for the info on the Nets poor defense against PF's.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Miami Heat 1st quarter -130 vs OKC Thunder

I was surprised to see that OKC has a -1 point differential on the road. I consider this a wash since we have 2 of the top teams in the league. Miami is the highest scoring team in the 1st quarter. OKC has a deeper bench. Miami got beat pretty bad last time these two teams played. They hung with OKC in the first quarter but I remember the Thunder eventually breaking the game open. With Wade in the game I think Miami is gonna come out strong in the 1st quarter.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-17 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays: 1-1 Profit: -0.15 units Fade Profit: -0.10 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[H1Cypher]

Your more of an expert on props than me, but I've found big men more reliable than the guards. The only tough thing about playing props is usually to be on the right side you have to pay the -120 to -130 juice. Thanks for the info on the Nets poor defense against PF's.

Sometimes I go by stats and what a player scores- always factoring in if he is hot or if he is cold. Sometimes I just know player X will play good against certain teams and it's more situational and his last 5 or 10 games are less relevant. You also have to sometimes find runs before the books do because they adjust their lines too.

I haven't thought about it actually. Some guards can be pretty reliable you just have to ride the hot hand. I do like to target guys for unders who won't have the ball in their hand as much though.

Problem is you have guys like Lebron who go off for games like 30+ a game and average more than 30 points in their next 5 games but end up 2-3 on the over- because the books set Lebrons player prop at some number like 27.5 the next game against a bad team the heat might blow out. Now keep in mind- Heat have multiple scoring options while Lebron is out there and he distributes too. Now somehow he averages 30+ over his next 5 games and still goes under the total of 27 or 26 in 3 of those games because the other 2 he scored big and here not quite enough.

Every player has a hot and cold run. Like Griffin he went on a hot run cashed a ton of rebound overs- then went cold and went under for 3 or 4+ games. If you can find a streak early, maybe you're a fan of the team or the player and watch them every day- those can cash multiple times.

[H1Cypher]

Going to be riding Aldridge OVER prop bets as well when the spots look right. That team depends so much on him. For them to have any chance he has to score ATLEAST 20+ points a game.

Great call hope you played it.

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Miami Heat 1st quarter -130 vs OKC Thunder

Heat got lucky and won the first half. Clear mistake very coinflip type of pick I should have put this in the cold play section. Leans go 0-1. Bringing that record to 21-18.

If you read my pre game break down of heat vs thunder the live in play jumped around alot and eventually in the 4th quarter came down. The total kept spiking above the original total for most of the game but like most of the national televised games WITH THE HEAT** this year did not go over the live in play total. Read my break down it was spot on for live in play use for this game. Learn team tendencies and live in play becomes a nice money maker.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays: 1-1-1 Profit: -0.15 units Fade Profit: -0.10 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

Cold Play: San Antonio Spurs -1 -102 Push

I'm keeping Cold play record totally separate from my other 2 plays. This is a cold play simply because Lang is on the Celtics. I'll have a cold play of my own, and there are 2 live in play games I'm gonna try and get something in after a quarter.

Push for the cold play category.

[H1Cypher]

Also had the total spiking up until the last 5 minutes of the game, 4th quarter come down. Heat national televised games thus far- that is a typical heat 4th quarter. In my pre game write up about live in play betting and team tendencies when it comes to totals.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Chris Paul points under 20 -135 vs Sacramento Kings


Paul takes shots as the team requires it. He usually comes out early in games and tries to distribute then depending on how the Clips are doing he might get more aggressive with his shot taking. Doesn't usually force shots and takes mostly good shots. Averages around 14.4 shots per game. It is a back tot back and his lowest point averages are on back to backs. Cold play because Paul has the ball in his hands for most of the game and he decides who gets it. CP isn't the type to usually jack up shots unless they need him to, like in last nights Laker game when Clippers were trailing and it was a big game. He took more shots.

Don't feel like forcing any plays today so I'm just gonna try to get a live in play pick during 1 of these 2 games if I'm really on track with a total and can post it fast during a commercial.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays: 1-1-1 Profit: -0.15 units Fade Profit: -0.10 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Chris Paul points under 20 -135 vs Sacramento Kings

-170under +140over now. Me and the big money on player props usually think alike, turns out good more often than bad if you get to it early.

Shame I didn't bet the prop

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: ive Magic under 25.5 2nd quartter

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: ive Magic under 25.5 2nd quartter

It's never guaranteed but let's see what the new team total is for this commercial I beat the live in play numbers- from commercial to commercial a fair amount, meaning I'm good at anticipating pace. Never guarantees a winner of course.

[H1Cypher]

new 2nd team total is 20.5. Boom beat the next number(next commercial number by 5 points).

[H1Cypher]

Was too busy bragging about my pace anticipating forgot to try to middle at 20.5. Magic are lighting it up now with the Knickcs. Let's see what the new team total is- will be way higher than 25.5 for 2nd quarter / 1st half.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Under 105.5 for both teams 1st half -110 live in play

Pace should go back to what it was for most of htis game befoer they starting going 3 crazy.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Under 105.5 for both teams 1st half -110 live in play

Cold Play: ive Magic under 25.5 2nd quartter -115

2-0 in my live in play totals. Woo bitches! Sorry but I take pride in my live in play total bets, prolly by far my best angle in the world of betting. If you look I've only lost 1 live in play bet on TOTALS in this thread, and I usually do bet all my live in play posts. Was thinking about grabbing that 194 number- but Knicks are jacking it up. Should've got that 94.5 under for game while I could for the magic team total. Oh well we'll see what happens in the 2nd half. First halves are much better for me though so prolly won't post anymore for this game.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays: 3-1-1 Profit: +1.85 units Fade Profit: -2.35 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[H1Cypher]

Should've got that 94.5 under for game while I could for the magic team total. Oh well we'll see what happens in the 2nd half. First halves are much better for me though so prolly won't post anymore for this game.

I didn't notice but under 94 was available at halftime. Also under 90 was up for Orlando team total during alot of this 3rd quarter. And look the new Orlando team total is set at 85.5 going into the 4th. Team tendencies always coming into play more often than not. Just gotta learn em.

edit: make that 84.5 for magic team total at this new commercial.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Chris Paul points under 20 -135 vs Sacramento Kings

13 points 5 assists for Paul. For about 2 hours before tip odds were -140 on the under and +110 on the over. Cold plays go 3-0 today. Thread had a good day =p.

Cold Play: Under 105.5 for both teams 1st half -110 live in play

Cold Play: live Magic under 25.5 2nd quartter -115

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays(with live in play coldplay included): 4-1-1 Profit: +2.85 units Fade Profit: -3.40 units
Cold Plays(with out coldplay live in play record): 2-1-1 Profit: +0.85 units Fade Profit: -1.15 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

Lol at this Clipper game. The guy right behind the announcers is cursing at the refs and they can do nothing to shut him up.

You call that a lane violation? You call that shit in high school. Finish the fuckin game. lol! That's all I could make out.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Kobe Bryant rebounds + assists under 10 -130 vs Rockets

Kobe is 1-1 this year going over 10 boards and asissts vs the Rockets. More often than not he goes under this total. 2-2-1 in his last 5 with this total, and 2-6-3 in his last 10. These stats are not relevant because this prop isn't up for every game. Take it for what you will that it is up for this game. It's been up before just not for every game is all I'm saying. So if it were to lose you couldn't go back and tap the under again for this one cause it might not be up. I think the likely hood of him going under is higher than over. Keeping it a coldplay though.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays(with live in play coldplay included): 4-1-1 Profit: +2.85 units Fade Profit: -3.40 units
Cold Plays(with out coldplay live in play record): 2-1-1 Profit: +0.85 units Fade Profit: -1.15 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Kobe Bryant rebounds + assists under 10 -130 vs Rockets

Kobe is 1-1 this year going over 10 boards and asissts vs the Rockets. More often than not he goes under this total. 2-2-1 in his last 5 with this total, and 2-6-3 in his last 10. These stats are not relevant because this prop isn't up for every game. Take it for what you will that it is up for this game. It's been up before just not for every game is all I'm saying. So if it were to lose you couldn't go back and tap the under again for this one cause it might not be up. I think the likely hood of him going under is higher than over. Keeping it a coldplay though.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays(with live in play coldplay included): 4-1-1 Profit: +2.85 units Fade Profit: -3.40 units
Cold Plays(with out coldplay live in play record): 2-1-1 Profit: +0.85 units Fade Profit: -1.15 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

Shit that was fast... it popped up and I got it in fast. And now it is at -175 under +145 on the over. Value on both sides really. -130 I think there is value on the under +145 value on the over. Just cause there is value doesn't mean you make a bet though. Gotta pat myself on the back for beating the odds huge again in a market not most people play that I keep saying if you target- and hit the odds early will usually find value.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Kobe Bryant rebounds + assists under 10 -130 vs Rockets

Kobe ended the game with 2 boards and 0 assists. Didn't seem too interested in boarding today, wonder if the Shin had something to do with it ; would've played it even with healthy shin but didn't see Kobe going up for that many boards today so close to the playoffs no need to aggravate injury. Kobe can get buckets anytime but don't expect him to just go over 10 boards and assists often. 45 minutes before the game odds dropped back down to -130 so there was plenty of time to get it at this number. Not all my props are no brainer value- but when you see this prop how do you not see value?

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays(with live in play coldplay included): 5-1-1 Profit: +3.85 units Fade Profit: -4.40 units
Cold Plays(with out coldplay live in play record): 3-1-1 Profit: +1.85 units Fade Profit: -2.15 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[BernardMadoff]

Kobe nowhere near rebound/assist prop, bummer.

[H1Cypher]

Kobe nowhere near rebound/assist prop, bummer.

Bummer for who?

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Live in play Orlando vs 76ers 1st half over 88.5. -115

Wish I had posted this at 87.5 before this commercial but oh well. I still think it'll go over 89.

[H1Cypher]

Typical magic I've said several times in this thread they are one of the riskiest teams to live in play with totals. Just went ice cold again and this time real early in the game. Lets see what nwew total is

[H1Cypher]

84.5 not sure at this point acuse of the Magic. 76ers over 46.5 looks good thats about it. These 2 teams are to stop and go for me to tag a total on them.

[H1Cypher]

Was talking about the first half. Betting closed now that was a good long commercial intermission.

[H1Cypher]

No consistent flow typical of these teams no more first half total. Total for game is 171.1 for the 6ers vs magic game. At firsts pace was teetering slow but looked like the Magic may come out inspired and put up some baskets. Was wrong on that, and when shot making goes htis bad will likely continue and even this live total of 171.5 may go down cause of the Magic. 1 live in play loss for this game I'll cut it at that.

[Speedy88]

Kobe nowhere near rebound/assist prop, bummer.

he had the under on the kobe prop.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Live in play Orlando vs 76ers 1st half over 88.5. -115

Should've kept posting would've ended the day 5-1 =/. Cold plays go 0-1 yesterday.

Official Basketball Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -8 1st half vs Toronto Raptors -110 to win: .5 units

I think after dropping 3 in a row the Thunder come out strong at home. Against a tank that should start tanking and just mail in the rest of the season. Meanwhile the Thunder are the more talented team with something to play for. They play hard and can put up big leads against many teams at home.


Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays(with live in play coldplay included): 5-2-1 Profit: +2.70 units Fade Profit: -3.40 units
Cold Plays(with out coldplay live in play record): 3-1-1 Profit: +1.85 units Fade Profit: -2.15 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Al Jefferson Under 10.5 rebounds -125 vs San Antonio Spurs

Not sure about this one. Close number he went over grabbing 11 boards in their last contest. Keeping it a cold play. Small edge in my favor when playing this in terms of likelihood when it comes to him not going hitting 11.

[H1Cypher]

Going to sporadically start keeping track of teasers. Not gonna bet them because I don't think I can profit with them. Also I'm not at a book with good teaser odds so wouldn't make sense to play the teasers anyway. But I'll keep track for fun. Would be nice if I could go above 50% =p.

2 team teaser 4.5 basketball points +103
-6.5 miami heat vs pistons
-8 okc thunder vs toronto raptors ties push
Teaser Record: 0-0

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Al Jefferson Under 10.5 rebounds -125 vs San Antonio Spurs

Not sure about this one. Close number he went over grabbing 11 boards in their last contest. Keeping it a cold play. Small edge in my favor when playing this in terms of likelihood when it comes to him not going hitting 11.

-170under +140 at 5dimes again I go where the odds go and this pick is more risky than the Kobe and Chris Paul pick. In his last 35 games Jefferson has gone hit 11 or more in 15 of those games but like I said at -125 there is small edge in my favor when betting the under.

Consistently to be able to beat the market odds by 20 or more cents is what you call finding value no?

[H1Cypher]

Official Basketball Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -8 1st half vs Toronto Raptors -110 to win: .5 units
4out of 6 of the first half favorites today covered and I had to be on the one that didnt =p. Lost it in the last 30 seconds too. Two bets on OKC in the first half in my thread and both times didn't cover the first half- and covered the game spread lol. 17-10 to 17-11

Cold Play: Al Jefferson Under 10.5 rebounds -125 vs San Antonio Spurs
Close one. Cold plays go to 6-2-1.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-11 +4.835 units
Total for the thread: 29-12. +9.36 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays(with live in play coldplay included): 6-2-1 Profit: +3.70 units Fade Profit: -4.45 units
Cold Plays(with out coldplay live in play record): 4-1-1 Profit: +2.85 units Fade Profit: -3.20 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.
Teaser Record: 1-0 +103

2 team teaser 4.5 basketball points +103
-6.5 miami heat vs pistons
-8 okc thunder vs toronto raptors ties push

Should have decided to track my parlays cause they both covered the spread. Will keep coming with these whether they are losers or winners.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Indiana Pacers -3 1st Quarter vs Toronto Raptors -120

1 of the worse 1st quarter teams in the league. Missing Bargnagni again but he's only played in 31 games this season. They kept it close in the 1st quarter against OKC yesterday only to lose the 1st by 5 points on a late 10 second 3 pt shot by Cook. They played yesterday and Calderon averages his lowest average on back to backs. I think his shot making will be required to keep Toronto in it and hopefully Indiana doesn't come out too lethargic.

Still looking for a player prop. Teasers will be sporadic see how well I can do with those, not every day though.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-11 +4.835 units
Total for the thread: 29-12. +9.36 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-18 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays(with live in play coldplay included): 6-2-1 Profit: +3.70 units Fade Profit: -4.45 units
Cold Plays(with out coldplay live in play record): 4-1-1 Profit: +2.85 units Fade Profit: -3.20 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.
Teaser Record: 1-0 +103

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Indiana Pacers -3 1st Quarter vs Toronto Raptors -120

Should have had a 15 point lead in tht 1st quarter. Raptors came out bad, pacers didn't even get it going until their bench came out. Thank you AJ Price if it wasn't for that assist and that tear drop woulda lost that quarter. Pacers bench came through, starters came out so lethargic. Leans go from 21-18 to 22-18.

The 2 props I was looking at Andrew Bynum points over already changed odds fast couldve got it at -120. Now it is -160. Also I was thinking about playing Chris Paul points under or points + assists under, which already moved odds against me so I can't play it not gonna pay the extra juice. Chris Paul may very well go over- if this is a heated game wouldn't be surprised to see CP hit a 3 get some layups, go to the line do his thing and go over 18.... depending on the type of game it is. Not sure if I'll have a player prop today.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-11 +4.835 units
Total for the thread: 29-12. +9.36 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 22-18 Units not tracked.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Utah Jazz -2 vs San Antonio Spurs -110 for First half

Late but it is what it is. Spurs smacked Utah around yesterday. Now the big three are out. It isn't' an injury- it's just the coach sitting his starters and asking his other guys to step up. A bit late to the party but I still think the Jazz will cover the 2 points in the first half. As many trends in my thread... I expect to lose this and have the team cover the spread for the game =p.

Other trends I've noticed in my thread. Everytime I start a new category I win the first bet. After a winning streak there is a losing streak 4/4 times and vice versa. I continue to lose bets to the 76ers whether it's a quarter, a game, a total, or a player prop doesn't matter. Alot of my unders are so on point that they hit back to back- so much so I'd have a much more positive record if I played all my unders the following game(player props). Just some trends I've noticed feel free and back test it's a small thread.