SuicideKings 2011-12 NBA Thread

[demens]

Funny part is that with the Blazers wrapping things up i had a nice 4-1 night, but i'm upset about 1 stupid game. Hows the NBA treating you so far Lyon?

[alamo]

btw, the tired team angle has not been all that good so far this season. Kings made it what 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU for the b2b2b team. I wouldn't be surprised if Atl bounce back tomorrow after this pathetic game. Happens a lot in the NBA, teams have great games following terrible ones. But i'm not betting Atl any time soon, ******* bunch of trash bag low life "nice guys". God damn Josh Smith might be the worst player in the NBA (considering status, i dont mean he is worst then some 12th scrub, but he sure as hell does more damage to his team then that 12th man). Doesn't do anything great, ******* Reggie MIller, stfu.Ivan Johnson, Jeff ******* Teague 1-12 hit a mother ******* free throw you losers. Joe 120 million ******* contract, old ass team needs to grow the **** up. Man i wish NBA adopted relegation style rule of European soccer, these mother fuckers were an embarrassment to the sport today.

LOL this was funny demens. I like the suggestion of the relegation. Might shake some of these buckos up. It just doesnt appear to be a part of U.S. sports of any type whereas in Europe nearly every sport had promotion\relegation leagues.

[suicidekings]

btw, the tired team angle has not been all that good so far this season. Kings made it what 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU for the b2b2b team.

Again, we're 12 days into the season... How can you possibly expect to take meaningful conclusions from such a small sample, let alone at the beginning of the season when virtually all teams are still sorting out their team. That being said, so far, teams are 1-3 in the second game of the B2B2B sets and 3-0-1 in the third game. Given the nature of the three games in this particular series I would think the Hawks care the most about the Heat and Bulls, making the sandwich game on the road against the Bobcats very problematic following 3OT. You can call that insignificant if you like...

I wouldn't be surprised if Atl bounce back tomorrow after this pathetic game. Happens a lot in the NBA, teams have great games following terrible ones. But i'm not betting Atl any time soon, ******* bunch of trash bag low life "nice guys". God damn Josh Smith might be the worst player in the NBA (considering status, i dont mean he is worst then some 12th scrub, but he sure as hell does more damage to his team then that 12th man). Doesn't do anything great, ******* Reggie MIller, stfu.Ivan Johnson, Jeff ******* Teague 1-12 hit a mother ******* free throw you losers. Joe 120 million ******* contract, old ass team needs to grow the **** up. Man i wish NBA adopted relegation style rule of European soccer, these mother fuckers were an embarrassment to the sport today.

And chill... Barkley hit the nail on the head tonight when he described the Hawks as a talent-filled teams of role players with no true leader / star player. Disappointment is the norm with them...

And why are you including Ivan Johnson in that list of disappointments? He made a name for himself tonight.

[suicidekings]

Funny part is that with the Blazers wrapping things up i had a nice 4-1 night, but i'm upset about 1 stupid game. Hows the NBA treating you so far Lyon?

Each loss always hurt so much more than several wins. Congrats on the night

[demens]

I said Ivan Johnson cause i thought it was sad that Atlanta was so hopeless that some totally unknown 27 year old rookie was the highlight of the game.

As for the winning b2b2b trend, i'm not making a conclusion and i do think the trend will even out. I'm just saying that plenty of people were going into the season thinking that angle is gold and its not, plus the books are ready for it.

[No coincidences]

I said Ivan Johnson cause i thought it was sad that Atlanta was so hopeless that some totally unknown 27 year old rookie was the highlight of the game.

As for the winning b2b2b trend, i'm not making a conclusion and i do think the trend will even out. I'm just saying that plenty of people were going into the season thinking that angle is gold and its not, plus the books are ready for it.

B2B2B is about as worthless as trying to track B2B during a regular season in November and December. There is no indication that teams fade in these spots at all during the early stages of the year.

By February and March, we might be singing a different tune.

[demens]

I dont buy that either. Certainly have not seen stats and prove a difference between early part of the season and the end of it. The lines books give us balance all of these angles out imo.

If anything, i thought since there was no summer league, no training camp and almost no pre-season and all these teams were coming into the season out of shape, no conditioning, etc they'd have a hard time dealing with the schedule during the early part of the year.

[No coincidences]

I dont buy that either. Certainly have not seen stats and prove a difference between early part of the season and the end of it. The lines books give us balance all of these angles out imo.

If anything, i thought since there was no summer league, no training camp and almost no pre-season and all these teams were coming into the season out of shape, no conditioning, etc they'd have a hard time dealing with the schedule during the early part of the year.

Physically, I'm not sure if there is a difference -- or if it's ever an issue.

I was talking about sheer motivation. Late in the season, I think players tend to care a lot less based on how important a given game is depending on the standings.

[demens]

Still though, stats dont reflect anything consistent. I've looked at 1st 2 months of seasons, last 2, etc. Dont see any real trend. There are certain specific teams that dont do well on b2bs but no overall trend. As always, unless you're developing some crazy involved complicated models, its best to go on a game by game basis imo.

[No coincidences]

Still though, stats dont reflect anything consistent. I've looked at 1st 2 months of seasons, last 2, etc. Dont see any real trend. There are certain specific teams that dont do well on b2bs but no overall trend. As always, unless you're developing some crazy involved complicated models, its best to go on a game by game basis imo.

Agreed.

[lyon804]

Funny part is that with the Blazers wrapping things up i had a nice 4-1 night, but i'm upset about 1 stupid game. Hows the NBA treating you so far Lyon?

Good job! So far so good. Been pretty selective so far as I don't feel I have a real good handle just yet with the compressed schedules and early in the season. Mainly doing 2H bets and it has been good. Good to see you back this season. You know your NBA.

[BetterBizness]

i think with alot of these injuries early in the seaosn - even minor ones - that teams will opt to rest these key players instead of subject them to the grind.... which will ultimate save their asses later in the year - ergo Heat -

Alot of bench will see minutes and increase value as well -

[suicidekings]

Still though, stats dont reflect anything consistent. I've looked at 1st 2 months of seasons, last 2, etc. Dont see any real trend. There are certain specific teams that dont do well on b2bs but no overall trend. As always, unless you're developing some crazy involved complicated models, its best to go on a game by game basis imo.

No one was suggesting there was a particular edge to any angle across the board. If you take any one strategy that won over any period and expand it over a large sample, it evens out. Without context of the games affected, the data is worthless. However considering this season has the most condensed schedule in the modern era, we're really talking about a different animal here. Past season data is less applicable than ever before.

[suicidekings]

1/6:

Bobcats ML (+108) x1

Magic -1 (+103) x1
Hornets +5.5 (+100) x1
Rockets +9 (-108) x1

[suicidekings]

Pistons ML (+498) x0.5

[suicidekings]

1/6:

Bobcats ML (+108) x1
Magic -1 (+103) x1
Hornets +5.5 (+100) x1
Rockets +9 (-108) x1
Pistons ML (+498) x0.5

1/6: 0-5 (-4.58u) What a great day...
YTD: 15-21-1 (-4.90u)

[suicidekings]

1/8:

Blazers -10.5 (-102) x1

[dlunc3]

Good too see you back man

[suicidekings]

Good too see you back man

I like taking a day off after I get raped. Plus Wildcard Weekend had my attention.

[Love The Action]

I like taking a day off after I get raped. Plus Wildcard Weekend had my attention.

The best part of one of those really bad days is that there is one of those really good days right around the corner. That's the good part about variance.

As solid a capper as you are, I would say a big week is on its way

[suicidekings]

The best part of one of those really bad days is that there is one of those really good days right around the corner. That's the good part about variance. As solid a capper as you are, I would say a big week is on its way

Thanks LTA. The kind words are much appreciated

[suicidekings]

1/8:

Blazers -10.5 (-102) x1

1/8: 1-0 (+1u)
YTD: 16-21-1 (-3.90u)

The Blazers are just vicious inside with the combined shot-blocking presence of Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby. Teams that lack a premier big man will have a lot of trouble with the Blazers this year.

[No coincidences]

1/8: 1-0 (+1u)
YTD: 16-21-1 (-3.90u)

The Blazers are just vicious inside with the combined shot-blocking presence of Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby. Teams that lack a premier big man will have a lot of trouble with the Blazers this year.

They might win the West.

Will be an interesting WCF between them and OKC.

[suicidekings]

They might win the West. Will be an interesting WCF between them and OKC.

My NBA Championship Future on them is at +3989 but rose after that to over +4700 before closing around +3700 on XMas. I definitely regret not playing it a little more aggressively along with the WCF prop (which I didn't touch at all). The thing about them is that while we know exactly what the Thunder and Lakers are capable of, the Blazers are still in the process of jelling as a team. They haven't hit their ceiling yet, and they're hungry.

[No coincidences]

My NBA Championship Future on them is at +3989 but rose after that to over +4700 before closing around +3700 on XMas. I definitely regret not playing it a little more aggressively along with the WCF prop (which I didn't touch at all). The thing about them is that while we know exactly what the Thunder and Lakers are capable of, the Blazers are still in the process of jelling as a team. They haven't hit their ceiling yet, and they're hungry.

I suppose I should include Denver as well. I think those three teams are head and shoulders above everyone else right now.

[riffraff24]

I just don't see the Blazers coming out of this west this year. They've shown similar signs in recent years of being a serious contender only to fall short in the end. And that was with a stud in Brandon Roy. I think barring any moves the current 1-2 will be OKC-Lakers respectively. I definitely don't see them coming out of a 7 game series vs OKC, Lakers and maybe even Spurs when Ginobli returns.

[suicidekings]

I just don't see the Blazers coming out of this west this year. They've shown similar signs in recent years of being a serious contender only to fall short in the end. And that was with a stud in Brandon Roy. I think barring any moves the current 1-2 will be OKC-Lakers respectively. I definitely don't see them coming out of a 7 game series vs OKC, Lakers and maybe even Spurs when Ginobli returns.

This Blazers team has a totally different identity than in previous seasons. Length and shot-blocking inside, and a quick-closing perimeter defense, all leading to a more effective fastbreak offense in which they have greater control over the game tempo.

The replacement of Brandon Roy with Jamal Crawford is at worst a wash, and IMO, an improvement. Roy is an elite shooter, but didn't fit as well into the new look of the Blazers team. Same goes for Felton replacing Miller, as Miller was not the outside threat that Felton is. In general, all of the big health concerns of the past (Fernandez, Roy, Pryzbilla) have been removed and replaced with a MUCH more durable team. The Blazers biggest issue in previous seasons was injuries, and now the only remaining player with a poor injury history is Greg Oden, and he's really more of a bonus if he gets effective minutes this year than a necessary component.

Too early to say for sure, as we're only 8 games in, but failing to respect how good this team is compared to previous years is a big mistake.

[suicidekings]

I suppose I should include Denver as well. I think those three teams are head and shoulders above everyone else right now.

Agreed. I just have this nagging feeling that Denver will somehow letdown this year, and I can't quantify that in any way. I just still think Thuggets in the back of my mind when I see them going into a tough matchup, so I'll probably continue to bet them sparingly. I should probably just make a point of watching their next few games and my reservations would subside.

[Pauulzcappin]

what do you think about them tomorrow against the clipps?


think it's a good spot for them with the revenge angle also.

[suicidekings]

1/10

Wizards -2 (-105) x1

Raptors hosting the Wolves tonight and then flying to Washington for their 4th game in 5 days against a Wizards team that needs a win badly. I think the Raptors get handled solidly here.

[suicidekings]

what do you think about them tomorrow against the clipps? think it's a good spot for them with the revenge angle also.

Agreed, however this could be a tough game as the Clippers have the inside presence to matchup with the Blazers, and Paul/Billups are so tough to manage on the perimeter. I don't know if I want to lay -5. I think it could come down a little.

I kind of like the Kings +10 tomorrow as well, following what i expect to be an intense game tonight for the Sixers.

[hawley]

1/10

Wizards -2 (-105) x1

Raptors hosting the Wolves tonight and then flying to Washington for their 4th game in 5 days against a Wizards team that needs a win badly. I think the Raptors get handled solidly here.

love this play

Was thinking about it this morning but didnt see the line. Wizards finally turn up in this one.

Flip is a dead man walking

[suicidekings]

Agreed. I just have this nagging feeling that Denver will somehow letdown this year, and I can't quantify that in any way. I just still think Thuggets in the back of my mind when I see them going into a tough matchup, so I'll probably continue to bet them sparingly. I should probably just make a point of watching their next few games and my reservations would subside.

Tonight's game is a perfect example of why the Nuggets can't be trusted. Laying -13 at home on a day's rest against a 2-6 Hornets team and not only do they not cover the DD spread, they completely shit the bed, losing by 13, 94-81. Pathetic.

[bfour]

I agree on the Wizards. Best chance to get their first win.

[PR9]

This Blazers team has a totally different identity than in previous seasons. Length and shot-blocking inside, and a quick-closing perimeter defense, all leading to a more effective fastbreak offense in which they have greater control over the game tempo.

The replacement of Brandon Roy with Jamal Crawford is at worst a wash, and IMO, an improvement. Roy is an elite shooter, but didn't fit as well into the new look of the Blazers team. Same goes for Felton replacing Miller, as Miller was not the outside threat that Felton is. In general, all of the big health concerns of the past (Fernandez, Roy, Pryzbilla) have been removed and replaced with a MUCH more durable team. The Blazers biggest issue in previous seasons was injuries, and now the only remaining player with a poor injury history is Greg Oden, and he's really more of a bonus if he gets effective minutes this year than a necessary component.

Too early to say for sure, as we're only 8 games in, but failing to respect how good this team is compared to previous years is a big mistake.