SuicideKings 2011-12 NBA Thread

[suicidekings]

I dont get why the Wiz is so bad. Roster has talent, way too much to be as bad as they are. Obviously Flip Saunders can be a guy that loses a team, and they have a bunch of young cancer type players as it is, so my guess would be that is why. Still surprising they are THAT bad.

Just a lack of leadership in general, both on the floor and at the HC position, and even up at the GM level. The organization has no identity.

[suicidekings]

Ha, NBA is awesome isn't it. A little bit of all and you're in the green. Nice! Is it just me or has there been more blowouts this year then in previous years, it seems like every other game is a 20 or 30 point loss. Also, 1 thing i like to do to kind of gauge if i'm just making bad picks or having bad/good luck is to keep a record of all games w/l by 1 possession (3 points), a last second meaningless 3 is something you can't really cap. It seems by the end of the season it evens out, so if you've been on the losing end of a bunch of these i think it'll turn around at some point./

Agreed on gauging the degree of the wins/losses. I think that gets overlooked a lot by people regarding their record, letting a couple close losses discourage you. I swear, if they offered a pregame line for score at the end of the 3Q, I would be all over it...

[suicidekings]

1/24

LIVE (29-22 IND, end of 1Q)

Magic ML (+271) x1.5

[suicidekings]

1/24

Magic ML (+271) x1.5

4.5 pt Teaser: Raptors +10 / Grizzlies +10.5 (+100) x3
Raptors +5.5 (+100) x1
Grizzlies +6 (-101) x1

[suicidekings]

The officiating in the Magic/Pacers game is horrible so far, with bad calls being granted both ways... The net impact is small, but its still ugly.

[No coincidences]

Nice call on the Magic comeback SK.

[suicidekings]

1/24

Magic ML (+271) x1.5
4.5 pt Teaser: Raptors +10 / Grizzlies +10.5 (+100) x3
Raptors +5.5 (+100) x1
Grizzlies +6 (-101) x1

1/24: 2-2 (+1.06u)
YTD: 31-32-2 (+2.23u)

I definitely thought Camby was not supposed to be playing tonight...

[suicidekings]

Nice call on the Magic comeback SK.

[lakerboy]

Don't play teasers in the nba buddy.

[suicidekings]

Don't play teasers in the nba buddy.

I don't usually. This time I liked both teams to play strong games, and was considering a spread/ML combo for both, but +10 or better on both teams seemed like a better option than the ML. The game finished in a 13 point win with Camby (who I expected not to play) pulling in 22 rebounds and 5 blocks. I don't think this was a bad play, however it was obviously based on bad info.

[suicidekings]

1/25

Knicks 1H -1.5 (-113) x1
Heat 1H -4.5 (-113) x1
Dallas 1Q -1.5 (-110) x1

[PR9]

I don't think this was a bad play, however it was obviously based on bad info.

plays based on bad info are obviously bad plays

[suicidekings]

plays based on bad info are obviously bad plays

Point being, bad logic and bad info are two different elements. But I don't want to argue about it...

[suicidekings]

1/25

Knicks 1H -1.5 (-113) x1
Heat 1H -4.5 (-113) x1
Dallas 1Q -1.5 (-110) x1

1/25: 1-2 (-1.23u)
YTD: 32-34-2 (+1.00u)

[suicidekings]

1/26

Celtics +10 (-110) x4
Celtics ML (+483) x2

This line's not right. Rondo and Allen didn't even play in the last game, so I'm not that concerned about them being out today. O'Neal being out is a little more of a problem, but Pietrus, Dooling, and Wilcox are all supposed to play tonight, so we're talking about a Celtics team that's in better overall shape than they have been in a while. The line opened at -8 and the movement has been one sided for the most part, sliding up to 10 on the "revenge" angle, which I think is the most overused angle in sports-betting.

IMO, Boston's dramatic roster changes left them in a tough spot early and they've also faced some tough teams this year. Since January 1, they've beaten the bad teams they've faced, while losing to IND x2, CHI, MIA, DAL & OKC. The only loss that looks bad for them was the loss to Phoenix. I see this being a much closer game than the last one, but for Orlando to completely turn it around and dominate the Celtics here doesn't really make sense to me. I'm a lot more confident in the spread than the ML, but at +483, this is worth a larger stake. The Celtics are definitely more likely to win this game than the ~18.5% shown by the line.

[Pauulzcappin]

I agree with your assessment, sk. Thinking about playing them myself.

[No coincidences]

Good luck SK. Don't like the low total, or the fact that Boston beat them down the last time out.

[suicidekings]

Good luck SK. Don't like the low total, or the fact that Boston beat them down the last time out.

Why? Under what circumstances would you be expecting the total in this game to be high?

And forget about the final score from the last game and look at HOW Boston beat Orlando. It was a matter of preparation and solid execution of a strong plan.

[No coincidences]

Why? Under what circumstances would you be expecting the total in this game to be high?

And forget about the final score from the last game and look at HOW Boston beat Orlando. It was a matter of preparation and solid execution of a strong plan.

I don't expect it to be high, but a combination of a DD point spread and a total under 175 would have me leery to take Boston. I guess I just don't see the angle in taking either team tonight, but that's just me. Why in the hell would Boston be +10 after beating the living shit out of the Magic just last week with the same personnel?

[JR007]

I don't expect it to be high, but a combination of a DD point spread and a total under 175 would have me leery to take Boston. I guess I just don't see the angle in taking either team tonight, but that's just me. Why in the hell would Boston be +10 after beating the living shit out of the Magic just last week with the same personnel?

monday's game opened at 4 and steamed to 7.5.......allen, rondo, someone else was out
same tonight, line reflects a blowout, ml as well

[suicidekings]

I don't expect it to be high, but a combination of a DD point spread and a total under 175 would have me leery to take Boston. I guess I just don't see the angle in taking either team tonight, but that's just me. Why in the hell would Boston be +10 after beating the living shit out of the Magic just last week with the same personnel?

When a total is surprisingly low, then I could see the argument to a certain extent. But to me, the total makes a lot of sense. Pretty much identical to the total in the last one.

As for the side, I think a far better question is why does Orlando deserve to be a -10 favourite here? Of their 12 wins, 8 of them have come against: CHA x2, HOU, NJN, TOR, WAS, SAC, & GSW, who are almost all in the bottom third of the league. Against the better teams they've faced, the Magic have been about 50/50. I think the books have a pretty good read on the Magic, and underestimated Boston in the last game. Given another chance at it, I suspect Orlando would have been a short road fave of -1/-2 in the last game, given the -8 opener today.

[No coincidences]

Buy any lottery tickets lately SK?



What a week of comebacks for you. Wow.

[demens]

Nice hit on the Celts. Looks like those guys got their defensive swagger back. Beating the Magic is not exactly a benchmark for a contender but maybe the Cs aren't all done just yet? Maybe not, but i think its great how these bench scrubs can come in and pick up that defense like that, it says a lot about the coaching staff and Doc Rivers.

Really wanna fade them tomorrow on a b2b after this big win but i think Indy is in a really shitty spot. Also a let down spot and a bit of a look ahead to Orlando who they lost to at home. Maybe better to leave it alone.

How pathetic is that Orlando team, holy crap. Dwight, come to the Nets man, i guarantee it wont be worse then it is now, even if Deron leaves.lol.

[demens]

Buy any lottery tickets lately SK?



What a week of comebacks for you. Wow.

it started when i said he was having shit luck with that Mavs push

[Dexter]

1/26

Celtics +10 (-110) x4
Celtics ML (+483) x2

wow....nice SK

[Love The Action]

1/26

Celtics +10 (-110) x4
Celtics ML (+483) x2

This line's not right. Rondo and Allen didn't even play in the last game, so I'm not that concerned about them being out today. O'Neal being out is a little more of a problem, but Pietrus, Dooling, and Wilcox are all supposed to play tonight, so we're talking about a Celtics team that's in better overall shape than they have been in a while. The line opened at -8 and the movement has been one sided for the most part, sliding up to 10 on the "revenge" angle, which I think is the most overused angle in sports-betting.

IMO, Boston's dramatic roster changes left them in a tough spot early and they've also faced some tough teams this year. Since January 1, they've beaten the bad teams they've faced, while losing to IND x2, CHI, MIA, DAL & OKC. The only loss that looks bad for them was the loss to Phoenix. I see this being a much closer game than the last one, but for Orlando to completely turn it around and dominate the Celtics here doesn't really make sense to me. I'm a lot more confident in the spread than the ML, but at +483, this is worth a larger stake. The Celtics are definitely more likely to win this game than the ~18.5% shown by the line.

Great job buddy. I've seen you've had a great couple of days.

[suicidekings]

1/26

Celtics +10 (-110) x4
Celtics ML (+483) x2

1/26: 2-0 (+13.66u)
YTD: 34-34-2 (+14.66u)

Damn, that felt good...

[No coincidences]

1/26: 2-0 (+13.66u)
YTD: 32-34-2 (+14.66u)

Damn, that felt good...

What were you thinking when they were down 26?

[suicidekings]

Buy any lottery tickets lately SK? What a week of comebacks for you. Wow.

it started when i said he was having shit luck with that Mavs push

wow....nice SK

Great job buddy. I've seen you've had a great couple of days.

I think we all know that one was VERY lucky. The Celtics had no right to win that game after the awful start. I was getting ready to go out, hopped in the shower with them still down 12, then they were tied when I checked again.

I'm buying a lottery ticket tomorrow, just for fun.

[suicidekings]

What were you thinking when they were down 26?

At that point I didn't worry about it. Nothing you can do when your team is down 26. It was the last 3 minutes of the 1Q that were the most stressful part because it was just a ridiculous string of poor shot selection, dangerous cross-court passes, and no Celtics within 15 feet of the Magic rim. Just KILLING themselves...

[JR007]

nice call on the celtics, the moneyline progression fooled me

[SparJMU]

4.5 pt Teaser: Raptors +10 / Grizzlies +10.5 (+100) x3
Raptors +5.5 (+100) x1
Grizzlies +6 (-101) x1

Where do you get your 4.5 point teasers at +100?

Nevermind, found it on 5D. I look forward to betting a lot of these in the playoffs.

[alamo]

Sports betting is a results based game SK and yours are top class right now.

[suicidekings]

nice call on the celtics, the moneyline progression fooled me

Sports betting is a results based game SK and yours are top class right now.

Thanks guys

[suicidekings]

1/27

Celtics +3.5 (-110) x1
Celtics ML (+150) x0.5 Celtics ML (+140) x0.5

This is a confident team right now, with a score to settle vs the Pacers. Friday night at TD Gardens should be bumping.