SuicideKings 2011-12 NBA Thread

suicidekings · 02-05-12, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Don't sleep on the resurgent Kings. Their talent level far exceeds their W-L record, owing to an extremely tough early schedule and injuries. Their next three games are all very winnable games (and will probably have favourable lines), and with Marcus Thornton back in the lineup, they're looking solid.

No coincidences · 02-05-12, 01:04 AM

Kings are dangerous if they can find a level of consistency. Kind of like a poor man's version of the T'Wolves.

Do you like Memphis on Sunday SK?

What about the Super Bowl?

riffraff24 · 02-05-12, 01:18 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What about the Super Bowl?

suicidekings · 02-05-12, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Kings are dangerous if they can find a level of consistency. Kind of like a poor man's version of the T'Wolves. Do you like Memphis on Sunday SK? What about the Super Bowl?

No Memphis for me. The line is a fair one, IMO, and I don't think it merits a play.

Don't really like the SB line either. I think it will be a tight game that's decided by the TO margin. Seems to me to just be a good day to take off from betting and watch the games, rather than sell yourself on the need to be playing the big game.

No coincidences · 02-05-12, 01:46 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

No Memphis for me. The line is a fair one, IMO, and I don't think it merits a play.

Don't really like the SB line either. I think it will be a tight game that's decided by the TO margin. Seems to me to just be a good day to take off from betting and watch the games, rather than sell yourself on the need to be playing the big game.

Mistake No. 1 gamblers make.

I'll probably be "that guy" tomorrow.

suicidekings · 02-05-12, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Mistake No. 1 gamblers make. I'll probably be "that guy" tomorrow.

Action junkies unite

No coincidences · 02-05-12, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Action junkies unite

For me, it's both funny and sad. I just can't stay away and find that level of discipline. If I ever do, my bankroll would love me for it.

riffraff24 · 02-05-12, 02:30 AM

I am not going to touch my bankroll tomorrow. I am depositing $200 in a different sports book and will play the SB with that. I even told the girly to change my password until Monday lol. Drunk me makes stupid live bets sometimes.

demens · 02-05-12, 10:56 AM

Not sure i agree with you on the Kings. One of the key statistics i look at is effective win% and the Kings have one that is worse then their actual record. That doesn't say they are under achieving to me.

suicidekings · 02-05-12, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by demens

Not sure i agree with you on the Kings. One of the key statistics i look at is effective win% and the Kings have one that is worse then their actual record. That doesn't say they are under achieving to me.

What do you mean by effective win percentage? Are you talking about Pythagorean Expectation?

Win% = (points scored)^13.9 / [(Points Scored)^13.9 + (Points Allowed)^13.9]

If so, that number doesn't take injuries or strength of schedule into account, and those are the two factors that made it tough for them early on, in addition to the overall youth of the team, bad early coaching, short training camp, and new additions that needed time to jell.

demens · 02-05-12, 10:31 PM

Those other factors are important but subjective. I dont see a way of quantifying them in numbers and those things apply to all teams, not just the Kings.

I dont recall what the ewin% is based on anymore, just get it straight off nbastuffer but i think it has some variation of pythagorean in it. In either case, despite outside factors like injuries and coaching, i think the comparison between ewin% and actual win% is a good gauge for whether a team is under/over preforming (record wise) and i dont think the Kings are underachieving. They have talent, but so do the Wizards.

suicidekings · 02-06-12, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by demens

Those other factors are important but subjective. I dont see a way of quantifying them in numbers and those things apply to all teams, not just the Kings. I dont recall what the ewin% is based on anymore, just get it straight off nbastuffer but i think it has some variation of pythagorean in it. In either case, despite outside factors like injuries and coaching, i think the comparison between ewin% and actual win% is a good gauge for whether a team is under/over preforming (record wise) and i dont think the Kings are underachieving. They have talent, but so do the Wizards.

I don't understand how you can verify the validity of a statistic when you don't even know how to calculate it yourself.

Basically, what I'm getting from your argument is that you think a team's current value is reflected in the summation of it's season stats, and that's just not true. Every day it's proven not to be true as the situational factors override averages and bad teams in good spots play tough games against "better" teams. I'm not talking about W-L records at the end of the season. Just the current value of the team.

suicidekings · 02-07-12, 02:01 AM

hawley · 02-07-12, 02:04 AM

You like them tomorrow SK?

Had Kings ML today but wasn't around to hammer them 2h. Will be interesting to see how the Twolves cope without Love.

suicidekings · 02-07-12, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by hawley

You like them tomorrow SK? Had Kings ML today but wasn't around to hammer them 2h. Will be interesting to see how the Twolves cope without Love.

More of a comment on their recent success, but yes.

2/7

Kings +6.5 (-108) x3

They're on a B2B, but are fortunate enough to go to Minnesota when Kevin Love is suspended for being a stupid piece of trash... The Kings are playing with so much confidence right now, and are getting so much production and strong minutes from their secondary players, anchored by the continued strong play from Evans/Cousins/Thornton.

Kalibongo · 02-07-12, 02:34 AM

What about Anthony Randolph? He's had 5 consecutive 20/10s when Love was out last year.

suicidekings · 02-07-12, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by Kalibongo

What about Anthony Randolph? He's had 5 consecutive 20/10s when Love was out last year.

Don't care. I would most likely be backing the Kings tonight regardless of Love's status, as I probably would have gotten +7.5/+8 instead of +6.5.

suicidekings · 02-07-12, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

2/7

Kings +6.5 (-108) x3

2/7: 1-0 (+3.0u)
YTD: 46-49-2 (+5.93u)

MidgetTossers · 02-07-12, 11:47 PM

nice call on kings SK

suicidekings · 02-08-12, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by MidgetTossers

nice call on kings SK

suicidekings · 02-09-12, 01:25 AM

1/9

OKC/SAC Under 204 (-110) x2

I also like the Celtics ML tomorrow quite a bit, but I would think the price will come down a bit from the current (-153).

Kalibongo · 02-09-12, 02:35 AM

Do you think the Cs will cover?

suicidekings · 02-09-12, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Kalibongo

Do you think the Cs will cover?

Yes, but I still feel better about taking the ML in this game.

suicidekings · 02-09-12, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/9

OKC/SAC Under 204 (-110) x2

Celtics ML (-153) x1.5

suicidekings · 02-09-12, 11:06 PM

1/10

Clippers ML (+153) x3
Hawks ML (+162) x1

suicidekings · 02-10-12, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/9

OKC/SAC Under 204 (-110) x2
Celtics ML (-153) x1.5

1/9: 0-2 (-4.5u)
YTD: 46-51-2 (+1.43u)

Frustrating losses tonight...

suicidekings · 02-10-12, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/10 Clippers ML (+153) x3 Hawks ML (+162) x1

LIVE (61-56 Sixers, 3Q): Clippers ML (+284) x1.5

suicidekings · 02-10-12, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/10

Hawks ML (+162) x1
Clippers ML (+153) x3
Clippers ML (+284) x1.5

1/10: 2-0 (+10.47u)
YTD: 48-51-2 (+11.90u)

suicidekings · 02-10-12, 10:02 PM

1/10 Late Game

Jazz ML (+100) x3

demens · 02-11-12, 08:47 AM

What made you go with the Clips live? Were you watching the game? They are picking up some nice wins on the road lately. Wonder if they can keep that up with Billups out. Mo Williams was having an amazing season off the bench for them.

Dexter · 02-11-12, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/10: 2-0 (+10.47u)
YTD: 48-51-2 (+11.90u)

nice night...

suicidekings · 02-11-12, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by demens

What made you go with the Clips live? Were you watching the game? They are picking up some nice wins on the road lately. Wonder if they can keep that up with Billups out. Mo Williams was having an amazing season off the bench for them.

I really liked the Clips going into the game for a couple of reasons. I bet it live because it became clear that the Sixers weren't going to be able to pull away from the Clippers. Still short on experienced big men with Hawes out, they were getting outworked by Griffin/Jordan/Evans inside. The game had been close since late in the 2Q and tied 90 seconds earlier, yet they were offering +284 despite the Clippers making the better adjustments overall in the game. It was a serious mispricing, IMO. I would have been a lot smarter to take the +5.5 they were offering at the time...

hawley · 02-11-12, 03:58 PM

SK can you take the Kings as favs today?

suicidekings · 02-11-12, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

nice night...

Until I lost 3u of it on the Jazz

Utah was an autoplay for me, like it was for you, but I wasn't really feeling going against the Thunder. By the middle of the 2Q, I was regretting the play... Still the right play situationally, however I think the Thunder have elevated themselves this season to where situational autoplays against them may not be wise.

suicidekings · 02-11-12, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by hawley

SK can you take the Kings as favs today?

Seems like a bit of a letdown spot for the Kings after beating the Thunder. The value that was present on the Kings lines in the last few games is largely gone after winning 7 in a row ATS. If the line was SAC -3.5 I would think the books have more confidence in them to continue, but -2 at home on a Saturday night is a tough line to have confidence in.