LTA's NBA Plays

[No coincidences]

Lets have a big week boys.
What does everyone like for today?

OKC/LAC under 200
MEM/SA under 189.5

[SoxSide Irish]

Bulls are the play today. People may think because of tough loss and back to back that they might have a letdown but thibs will have them ready for this game. I think the opening line of -9 just shows that vegas knows this could be a blowout and want you to take washington.

[Love The Action]

NBA Regular Season 2011-2012 1/30/2012

Play #1

Sixers (-7) 1x (Locked)

This is such a bad situational spot for the magic, not even considering all the craziness surrounding their team. The magic will be playing the 2nd of a b2b and b2b2b2b stretch and their 4th game in 5 nights. That's bad enough, but if you consider the fact that they are playing the sixers who are off a day of rest and playing with revenge having lost to the magic 3 staright games, you have to like the sixers. I expect a full effort from philly tonight and their defensive strength is shutting down the three point shot in which they rank #1 in the league defensively. Because the magic live and die behind the arc, this is not a good matchup for the magic. If you take into account that jameer nelson is out with a concussion leaving only duhon and maybe redick to play the point against the sixers depth at that position and we see another reason why this is not a good spot for orlando. Philly is 10-2 ats at home this season and are demolishing teams on a nightly basis. With orlando tired, fighting with each other and going against a team that is playing with revenge while dominating them in mosy statistical categories, I don't see how the magic cover. We are giving 7 points which shows the oddsmakers are taxing philly pretty heavy, but my model still shows some value at -7. I have this game set at -8.5 if you take into account the situational factors and I am rolling with philly for 1x. Good luck.

[Vitooch]

Orlando needs to get back on track eventually... right?

[BigBoi]

Not sure if you're aware but these reasons are taken into account when the line is made...

I'm aware of that. Still like it

[Love The Action]

Orlando needs to get back on track eventually... right?

Based on what? Are you just assuming that as opinion or are you basing that on empirical data.

So far this season, teams have fared very poorly in the second game of a three game stretch but succeeded in the third game. Tonight, the magic face philly in the second game of their three game stretch and tomorrow they play washington. Hmmmm.....

Philly does everything that the magic struggle against both offensively and defensively. This is a really bad spot for orlando.

Why do you think orlando "gets back on track" tonight?

[Donnie Brasco]

I gotta think okc +2.5 is solid after a day off with the clipps coming off dogfights with lakers and nuggs huh?

[BigBoi]

That's exactly what Im thinking

[h23jdmlude]

Love the pick LTA. Do you have any thoughts on the over? I'm no expert, nor do I have any data to back up my lean, but 179 seems possible..

[apurvaas]

Love the pick LTA. Do you have any thoughts on the over? I'm no expert, nor do I have any data to back up my lean, but 179 seems possible..

I like under!
Magic won't score more than 80

[Vitooch]

Based on what? Are you just assuming that as opinion or are you basing that on empirical data.

So far this season, teams have fared very poorly in the second game of a three game stretch but succeeded in the third game. Tonight, the magic face philly in the second game of their three game stretch and tomorrow they play washington. Hmmmm.....

Philly does everything that the magic struggle against both offensively and defensively. This is a really bad spot for orlando.

Why do you think orlando "gets back on track" tonight?

I'm not disagreeing with your play at all! I'm just pointing out the severe inconsistency of the Magic.

[Donnie Brasco]

Huge movement on portland huh?

[Vitooch]

Got Portland ML at EV...One of my favorite plays today

[dlunc3]

Just came on here to express my thoughts on Portland tonight and see you guys are already discussing it... Al Jeff is doubtful, and this should be a big concern here. The line has moved from +2 to -1 for portland bc of this, and should continue moving the closer we get to gametime. Portland is coming off two full days of rest (3 if you count much of the blowout in the phx game). On top of that, seems like Portland has the better matchups 1 through 5 as well as the bench. Im locking in this play in now at -1 before it continues to move.

BOL tonight

[mikea33]

LTA,

I lean Philly in the game and I hope it hits for you. I dont know if I can play it. Philly is on a big homestand and it is a terrible spot for the Magic I agree. They are horrible and strength to strength wise Philly has the factors in there favor. However they've played Detroit, Charlotte, New Jersey, Washington in there last 4....that worries me.......However there defense should be able to give Orlando enough fits.

[Dmil]

I gotta think okc +2.5 is solid after a day off with the clipps coming off dogfights with lakers and nuggs huh?

+2.5 . Okc -2

[TC Woods]

Portland has moved from +2 to -2....

Wish I'd had gotten that +2

[BigBurk]

Yeah crazy line movement on that game. As soon as it was noticed that Jefferson will be out the line moved like a mofo.

OKC/LAC under 200

Liking this one also, locked it in earlier at 199.

[Donnie Brasco]

+2.5 . Okc -2

Typo

[Rolo1984]

LTA,

I lean Philly in the game and I hope it hits for you. I dont know if I can play it. Philly is on a big homestand and it is a terrible spot for the Magic I agree. They are horrible and strength to strength wise Philly has the factors in there favor. However they've played Detroit, Charlotte, New Jersey, Washington in there last 4....that worries me.......However there defense should be able to give Orlando enough fits.

Well anyone who has played a teamsport knows how important morale is. At orlando there currently isnt any. I guess the fact dwight wants to leave put a lot of stress on the team.

[hey buddy]

I agree LTA about the negatives involving Orlando .I just worry about the Sixers have their two bigs out vs Howard. I am laying off but good luck. You do a solid job and somehow avoid the nonsense that goes on around here.

[mikea33]

Well anyone who has played a teamsport knows how important morale is. At orlando there currently isnt any. I guess the fact dwight wants to leave put a lot of stress on the team.

I agree.......I watch them play frequently, and its not morale......there team just stinks....Howard is playing best ball of his career and everyone else stinks. We're talking about a team that made a statement vs LA and ran the Celtics off the court for the first half.......I just think there very unpredictable and I'd prefer for them not to be in my bet lol

[dlunc3]

Philly dominating this game.. only up 5 as of now, but they cant hit a shot... its a matter of time though. The magic look like a hs team.

[Cruizer]

LTA, im curious about what your model says about the suns without nash, in general. Only if you're willing to share of course.

[Speedy88]

Philly dominating this game.. only up 5 as of now, but they cant hit a shot... its a matter of time though. The magic look like a hs team.

Good to know. ORL is shooting 33% and Phili is shooting 39%. Philly is too good of a shooting team to shoot that low, but I can't say the same about Orlando for the 2nd half.

[dlunc3]

Good to know. ORL is shooting 33% and Phili is shooting 39%. Philly is too good of a shooting team to shoot that low, but I can't say the same about Orlando for the 2nd half.

Yea.. Orl shooting % is due to great team defense by Philly.. Philly shooting % is just bad shooting (getting good looks though). Hopefully that cant last

[Speedy88]

Yea.. Orl shooting % is due to great team defense by Philly.. Philly shooting % is just bad shooting (getting good looks though). Hopefully that cant last

You still feel confident on Phili -7 then?

[dlunc3]

You still feel confident on Phili -7 then?

Yea based on that first half, I feel good. Orlando takes a bad shot every time down court.. it's a shame they were a decent team not to long ago.. But yea, unless Stan makes some great adjustments at half, we should be good (unless we continue to shoot this poor).

[BigBoi]

LTA, any more plays on the night?

[dlunc3]

Yea based on that first half, I feel good. Orlando takes a bad shot every time down court.. it's a shame they were a decent team not to long ago.. But yea, unless Stan makes some great adjustments at half, we should be good (unless we continue to shoot this poor).

starting to heat up... up 16

[Catchn_Picks]

Man.

Orlando has to work very hard to play this poorly considering the talent they have on that team.

[mikea33]

Man.

Orlando has to work very hard to play this poorly considering the talent they have on that team.

Yes, they should be playing a lot better....but talent?

[Speedy88]

Yes, they should be playing a lot better....but talent?

Yeah, other than Dwight Howard, they got a bunch of scrubs.

[Catchn_Picks]

I can't believe I am sweating out this game.

[dlunc3]

these last two minutes are unreal.. all with orl starters pulled.. noway should we be sweating this