LTA's NBA Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

Thanks Donnie

Btw, I shall ask... I got the over on the Wizards/Magic 182.5 @ -119 odds (local bookie)... I know this is a lot of juice, but Pinny, Bet365 and other bookies are all getting the line up, and it is now @ 185 on 365 and 184.5 @ Pinny. Now the odds on Pinny are - 110 if Im not mistaken... doesn't this mean that, if I buy the points down to 182.5, the odds should be around -130, therefore making the over 182.5 @ -119 a EV+ play, even though Im paying a lot of juice? I already made the play for half my normal unit. Would like to know you guys answer (its probably not going to stay like that much longer).

Thanks in advance!

I have learned to avoid playing totals at more than -110

[doin]

quit betting the overs in the NBA this year , have seen many games stay under even with overtime

this blog prompted me to research via covers.com. had I bet unders on every single nba game in january i'd be up about 25 units. some evenings 0/u went 7-3,6-5,8-2,7-6. other evenings o/U went 4-8,2-9,3-8. and of course 4-4,and 3-3.

the other stat i tracked was january average o/u line. 187

per LTA....'Last night had 4 overs and 3 unders and this over trend started last week' , so i just relooked at my spreadsheet and yes, these last 7 days, Overs is up 3 units, about.

One thing learned from this past hour..... it's all a gamble.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/31/2012 Recap

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

53 - 47 = +5.85x

Working towards a sustained streak of winning days and just haven't got their yet. As bart scott says, "can't wait." Last nights over was a good play long term that did not win. Nevertheless, as long as we keep making +ev plays, the winning streak will come. Good luck.

[Redscot]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/31/2012 Recap

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

53 - 47 = +5.85x

Working towards a sustained streak of winning days and just haven't got their yet. As bart scott says, "can't wait." Last nights over was a good play long term that did not win. Nevertheless, as long as we keep making +ev plays, the winning streak will come. Good luck.

Right on brother . Very solid wisdom imparted above regarding leans, it's what sets this thread apart (aside from the winning picks). Keep up the good work .

[lakerboy]

Good money management lta.

[mikea33]

LTA on pace for about +15 units on the year without a sustained winning streak. That is great money management right there!
NOW...when the win streak comes, this is gonna be sweet!

[YouHave2outs]

you said something about your play last night being a 60% winner based on the closing number. i bet u199 close to the open. i beat the closing number by one point also, but i don't see how it's possible that both of our bets would be 60% winners. are you saying that because of how the line movement worked out, dropping to 197 and then straight back up to 198 with even more late bets juicing it before gametime and juice on the halftime over, that it made your beating of the closer by one point much more significant? an honest question as i am always trying to learn. you seem to chuckle at my stupid questions, but they are sincere and i appreciate the info and advice.

[aread1]

LTA, What game you were eying today for a nice sized wager?

[Dmil]

Mavs are 2-0 ATS vs Okc this season. Last meeting as home dogs the Mavs won by 13 . Clearly at home the Mavs should be favored by more than + 1.5 . . I get it Kidd not playing, but that would've only matter 5-10 years ago. This is a good spot for Okc backer. Okc will be at there best tonight coming off that humiliating loss to the Clips and Perkins getting posterized . OKC ML +105 .

[Love The Action]

you said something about your play last night being a 60% winner based on the closing number. i bet u199 close to the open. i beat the closing number by one point also, but i don't see how it's possible that both of our bets would be 60% winners. are you saying that because of how the line movement worked out, dropping to 197 and then straight back up to 198 with even more late bets juicing it before gametime and juice on the halftime over, that it made your beating of the closer by one point much more significant? an honest question as i am always trying to learn. you seem to chuckle at my stupid questions, but they are sincere and i appreciate the info and advice.

Sorry, I've never intentionally dismissed your questions...just busy. All questions are important; there are no stupid questions. In this case, you should hit up the think tank as there is a ton of stuff out there on expected value in relation to your calculated projections and the closing number. I also recommend weighing the odds, conquering risk and similar books. You are a poker guy, so i'm sure you understand how to calculate expected value and apply this to sports investing. Good luck!

[JM92]

Mavs are 2-0 ATS vs Okc this season. Last meeting as home dogs the Mavs won by 13 . Clearly at home the Mavs should be favored by more than + 1.5 . . I get it Kidd not playing, but that would've only matter 5-10 years ago. This is a good spot for Okc backer. Okc will be at there best tonight coming off that humiliating loss to the Clips and Perkins getting posterized . OKC ML +105 .

OKC is not as good as people are makin' them out to be. And I'm an OKC fan, so i know what Im sayin'. Funny how everyone calls Westbrook a ball hog and says that without him and with a true PG they would be unstoppable. Yeah, right, a team which has three guys averaging by themselves over 55 points per game the last 3 years (first with Green, now with Harden), who has majorly regressed in terms of defense since the 08-09 season (can't explain this, it has been killing me for the past 2 years honestly), who has got no post scoring at all (funny how they try to get some out of perkins sometimes now. He backs down, and down, and down... and throws the ball at rim. I always pray it goes in.) should be better without Westbrook attacking. They got no inside presence and they only have one true spot-up shooter, Daequan Cook.

That's why sometimes there offense is completely out of rhythm, even when the guys are moving (which lots of my times they aren't)... because the next guy you pass the ball is gonna be lookin to either pass it again, as it is the case with Thabo, or Ibaka, or other big guy, or drive it/shoot it off the drible/just hog it for 5 seconds, as Durant, Westbrook and Harden due.

So, with that said, I think there's an easy reason the Mavs beat the Thunder @ home by 13. They were the better team, with honestly the better defense at that moment and they were in sinch. For the Thunder to beat them tonite, in a spot where they are even more confident, they will have to defend much better than what they've been doing. Otherwise, the Mavs are gonna have more guys ready to shoot and their brilliant execution is going to kill the Thunder.

[dlunc3]

Lta.. I'm on the road all day so haven't been to look into it much.. but the word here in philly is that deng noah and rip all may be out tonight. Seems like philly getting two in this spot seems pretty generous. I know you are a Chicago guy, so i was curious what your thoughts were.

[Love The Action]

Lta.. I'm on the road all day so haven't been to look into it much.. but the word here in philly is that deng noah and rip all may be out tonight. Seems like philly getting two in this spot seems pretty generous. I know you are a Chicago guy, so i was curious what your thoughts were.

I didnt see anything about noah being out. Just deng and rip. I lean philly....no play yet though. GL

[BigBoi]

LTA, you gonna have a big card tonight? I know your busy with work and everything. Just noticed that Lakerboy is on Dallas and Dad is on Portland. Any thoughts on those?

[dlunc3]

I didnt see anything about noah being out. Just deng and rip. I lean philly....no play yet though. GL

They talked about it (noah) all day on 610wip in philly ... havent seen anything about it online though. Ill keep you updated if it is confirmed. If its true, big edge to philly in my mind. BOL tonight



Edit: Still cant find anything... about to call up the station and tell those guys they must be confused (macnow and gargano)

[TC Woods]

Doh.....

[tatddy]

They talked about it (noah) all day on 610wip in philly ... havent seen anything about it online though. Ill keep you updated if it is confirmed. If its true, big edge to philly in my mind. BOL tonight



Edit: Still cant find anything... about to call up the station and tell those guys they must be confused (macnow and gargano)

Deng is expected to play per chi-sun times.

[dlunc3]

Deng is expected to play per chi-sun times.

From what I see, the Chic times expects him to play tomorrow (Thursday).

http://rotoworld.com/player/nba/1047/luol-deng

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/1/2012

Play #1

Heat/Bucks over (195) 2x (Locked)

Just able to post this now. Will try to get you a full writeup. This is a rematch of a game from last week that closed at 192.5 at pinny, stayed under by 20 points and still opened at 194.5. Hmmmm.....the books adjusting upwards despite a low total result only one week ago? To me, they lean over just like my model. I was prepared to make this a 3x play at 194, but I was never able to get it. As soon as I saw 195 a few hrs ago, I jumped on it. This is not the same old bucks as they are ranked 11th in PACE and play even faster when bogut is out. However, their usual stout defense is non existant ranked in the bottom ten of DEFF and otger relevant categories. Miami plays at the 2nd fastest PACE and has the best OEFF rating. In the last game, both teams shot under 37% at an 89 PACE. I expect both of those numbers to improve today, including 3 point shooting after shooting a collective 8 for 42 last game. The refs are rush, blair and wood who are all over leaning guys. I have this game set at 198.5, but with the bucks hitting triple figures in 4 straight games (against good defenses like bulls and lakers) and miami's ability to score 100 on a nightly basis, I think this one hits 200. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

[tatddy]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/1/2012

Play #1

Heat/Bucks over (195) 2x (Locked)

Just able to post this now. Will try to get you a full writeup. This is a rematch of a game from last week that closed at 192.5 at pinny, stayed under by 20 points and still opened at 194.5. Hmmmm.....the books adjusting upwards despite a low total result only one week ago? To me, they lean over just like my model. I was prepared to make this a 3x play at 194, but I was never able to get it. As soon as I saw 195 a few hrs ago, I jumped on it. This is not the same old bucks as they are ranked 11th in PACE and play even faster when bogut is out. However, their usual stout defense is non existant. Miami plays at the 2nd fastest PACE and has the best OEFF rating. In the last game, both teams shot under 37% at an 89 PACE. I expect both of those numbers to improve today, including 3 point shooting after shooting a collective 8 for 42 last game. The refs are rush, blair and wood who are all over leaning guys. I have this game set at 198.5, but with the bucks hitting triple figures in 4 straight games (against good defenses like bulls and lakers) and miami's ability to score 100 on a nightly basis, I think this one hits 200. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Books are finally adjusting for the no-Bogut small-ball Bucks.

[Dmil]

Scoresandodds Deng Out

[TC Woods]

Scoresandodds Deng Out

Knew that,

what about Noah???

[h23jdmlude]

I got in at 197. Let's shoot for a 200 point game!

[mikea33]

Got 196.5 really like it

[Dmil]

Knew that,

what about Noah???

Playing

[Donkeys2012]

Total has steamed up all the way to 198.5. Havent gotten on it cause it was 197.5 first chance i got to log on

[Redscot]

I have learned to avoid playing totals at more than -110

Donnie! You got your Avatar! Lookin' good bro . How you doing at the tables this week?



Loving the play LTA, upped my tail unit on you today, got the feeling it is the right time. Let's get this escarole!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/1/2012

Play #1

Heat/Bucks over (195) 2x (Locked)

Just able to post this now. Will try to get you a full writeup. This is a rematch of a game from last week that closed at 192.5 at pinny, stayed under by 20 points and still opened at 194.5. Hmmmm.....the books adjusting upwards despite a low total result only one week ago? To me, they lean over just like my model. I was prepared to make this a 3x play at 194, but I was never able to get it. As soon as I saw 195 a few hrs ago, I jumped on it. This is not the same old bucks as they are ranked 11th in PACE and play even faster when bogut is out. However, their usual stout defense is non existant ranked in the bottom ten of DEFF and otger relevant categories. Miami plays at the 2nd fastest PACE and has the best OEFF rating. In the last game, both teams shot under 37% at an 89 PACE. I expect both of those numbers to improve today, including 3 point shooting after shooting a collective 8 for 42 last game. The refs are rush, blair and wood who are all over leaning guys. I have this game set at 198.5, but with the bucks hitting triple figures in 4 straight games (against good defenses like bulls and lakers) and miami's ability to score 100 on a nightly basis, I think this one hits 200. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Sixers (+2) 1x (Locked)

I have the home team favored at -2.5 and think we have a false favorite in the bulls because of public perception. This is great value on philly in this spot when you consider the stats are very similar but the bulls dont have deng or rip. Both teams are deep, but philly is playing at home and I give them the advantage at +2. I have philky at -2.5 giving us over 2fg's of value. Based on the forgoing, I am rolling with the sixers for 1x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Donnie! You got your Avatar! Lookin' good bro . How you doing at the tables this week?



Loving the play LTA, upped my tail unit on you today, got the feeling it is the right time. Let's get this escarole!

Played friday, won 1300 in a 17 hr session. Sunday 8 hr sessio 400. Going tomorrow. Good luck tonight!

[Redscot]

Play #2

Sixers (+2) 1x (Locked)

I have the home team favored at -2.5 and think we have a false favorite in the bulls because of public perception. This is great value on philly in this spot when you consider the stats are very similar but the bulls dont have deng or rip. Both teams are deep, but philly is playing at home and I give them the advantage at +2. I have philky at -2.5 giving us over 2fg's of value. Based on the forgoing, I am rolling with the sixers for 1x. Good luck.

Too late for me to buyout now, cause I would. On the Bulls here in an ugly affair. On the ball pressure gonna make it hard for 76ers to initiate offense IMO, Jrue nice but young still, Rose is a killer and I think will try to impose his will on the young upstart.. Brand being more of a grinder, I think the interior D can force him into tough fade-aways. The 76ers bench could prove my downfall though....end of the day it's a small play for me, lets cash that Heat over and if I lose this one so be it, cheers to you and those tailing it.

[JM92]

Didn't saw the Sixers in time, but ended up doing what I had in my mind anyways. Took a live handicap, + 3.5 -110 odds. Lets get'em!

[PolishSensation]

Heat/Bucks line at 197.5 on my book. I think I'll just play 1-unit at that number.

[Love The Action]

Contemplating a play on the over in the Spurs/Rockets game. Will post if I play it.

[JM92]

Great start to the Heat/Bucks over. Very nice play LTA.

[Dmil]

King James on fire