LTA's NBA Plays

[Mooks]

[Butters850]

New to NBA betting but I'm tailing you and reading up on other threads then coming to consensus picks in some way in my head but I had some luck last night going 4-0. 2 of them were your picks. I see you are damn good when that sixers line dropped on my local book from 194 to 192 1/2 in an hour but thanks to your early post I got it at 194. Thanks thanks and thanks again. I plan to continue to tail you and learn more each day. Thanks for your great insight and thoughts along with your picks. GL always.

[JimmyJoeMeeker]

One post and you got the boot ... A new world record... Something to be proud of for sure.

[Mooks]

LTA any thoughts on Detriot?

[TC Woods]

One post and you got the boot ... A new world record... Something to be proud of for sure.

[Catchn_Picks]

Greg Shaker | NBA Total - Friday, Feb 3 2012 7:05PM
3* 801 MIAMI / 802 PHILADELPHIA UNDER 194

I post this tout pick not for validation but to say that he is the total flavor of the month, much like the RAS of old. If you can still get under 194...get it now is my advice. This line will move off of his release.

BOL

Catch

[YouHave2outs]

u192 -113 now at pinny

[dlunc3]

wish I could find 192.. best I'm seeing is 191.5 on my three books now

[BigBoi]

If I see 192 Im on it.

[Love The Action]

Greg Shaker | NBA Total - Friday, Feb 3 2012 7:05PM
3* 801 MIAMI / 802 PHILADELPHIA UNDER 194

I post this tout pick not for validation but to say that he is the total flavor of the month, much like the RAS of old. If you can still get under 194...get it now is my advice. This line will move off of his release.

BOL

Catch

As they say in PT, never fukking heard of him.

This is tout free zone. Thanks

[therocket]

191.5 at 5dimes. Hopefully turns back the other way before tip off

[Love The Action]

191.5 at 5dimes. Hopefully turns back the other way before tip off

Uh....no. Why would you want the line movement to go against the under.

Assuming you are on the under, you should want it to continue moving down. The lower it goes, the better the play becomes.

[YouHave2outs]

^^ think he obviously hasn't bet it yet and wants himself and the other few guys who posted to be able to get 192

[BigBoi]

I took it at 191.5. Defense....Defense....Defense

[alamo]

Good luck with the play LT (Love your tout free zone comment)

[Pross1]

LTA im a long time follower and first time poster in your thread. I appreciate all the hard work you put into this thanks man. I am with you on that PHI/MIA U. GL amigo

[burchfield]

Uh....no. Why would you want the line movement to go against the under.

Assuming you are on the under, you should want it to continue moving down. The lower it goes, the better the play becomes.

Its better to be under 193 than under 191.5

[aussieH]

Lta what do you think of winning margin wagers. Eg on my book I could pick heat to win between 1-10. With lines generally being sharp could this generally a good play. Does anyone have any data on how close the closing line is v result. Particularly at each line

[Speedy88]

I'm on this one with you LTA. Lets get it. Hopefully we get a lot of LeBrick tonight to help that under.

[Love The Action]

Its better to be under 193 than under 191.5

Take a look at what I wrote. You are missing the point.

Assuming he's already on the under at 194, then he should not want the line to go back up. The lower it goes after locking it in at 194, the better the play becomes as the expected value grows.

If he is trying to get on that play now after the line has moved 3 points, that is -ev and not recommended.

[Love The Action]

Lta what do you think of winning margin wagers. Eg on my book I could pick heat to win between 1-10. With lines generally being sharp could this generally a good play. Does anyone have any data on how close the closing line is v result. Particularly at each line

Its all about price and odds. What are the odds?

Just use the sbr half point converter to determine your edge.

GL

[BigBoi]

LTA, you gonna have any more plays?

[Love The Action]

LTA, you gonna have any more plays?

Possibly.

[Speedy88]

Everytime I look at your avy LTA makes me want to load up the netflix and watch some Mr. Heisenberg. Show is beyond good.

[aussieH]

No plays have been posted yet have they?

[Love The Action]

Everytime I look at your avy LTA makes me want to load up the netflix and watch some Mr. Heisenberg. Show is beyond good.

[Love The Action]

No plays have been posted yet have they?

Yes...see Post #3147

[Pross1]

LTA any insight into why the PHX/HOU total has been dropping all day? I mean I know PHX only averages 90 pts. a game on the road but HOU plays no defense at all. HOU can put up a lot of pts. at home and KevMart has scored 29 in each of his last two games. Both teams play tomorrow but I don't know if that is playing into it. Any insight would be appreciated. Thanks.

[aussieH]

Miami total not moving up. Are you thinking it might yet get pushed up?

[Catchn_Picks]

"This is tout free zone. Thanks"

Sorry...didn't mean to infect the site with touts at all...hate em...just wanted to warn people that the line was going to be dropping.

No more infractions. Promise.

[m3junkie]

bah, missed the under - good luck anyway though lta!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/3/2012

Play #1

Heat/Sixers under (194) 1x (Locked)

This is a rematch of last season's playoff series and the intensity will be heightened. This is not the same Philly team as they are now more experienced and playing at a very high level on both offense and defense. Last season, Philly had a hard time playing well on both sides of the ball on a consistent basis. This season, they have discovered that the true key to consistent winning in the NBA is the result of defensive effort. I expect this game to be all about defense for both teams. Miami is coming off a humiliating loss to the Bucks the day before yesterday and that loss will be fresh in their minds after squandering a 17 point lead. In addition to running way too many ineffective isolation sets, Miami's defense was atrocious. This presents a great bounce-back opportunity for Miami to get rolling on defense once again. The key to this play is getting at least 194, which is the third most common final score in the NBA behind 189 and 197. While I do understand that this total might go up before it goes back down, I was targeting 194 so I could not pass it up and risk losing it while I am at work. That is why I am locking this one up now before the ref assignments are released. If this total goes up to 195 before dropping, there is a solid chance I bump this up to a 1.5x play or more. Even though the Heat and Sixers are ranked 2nd and 6th respectively in OEFF, they are also ranked 10th and 1st in DEFF. Because they are both coming off a day of rest, I expect the intensity of this game to manifest itself on the defensive edge. I suspect we do not see many open looks for either team, as both defenses will look to establish themselves early. These two teams played to a 205 point final score on January 21st, with a total that opened at 195 and closed at 193 with Pinny juicing the under at -113 (which is like -126 at any other book). Now, despite a 205 final score on a closer of 193, Pinny opened today's game with an adjustment in favor of the under by opening at 192, a full three points lower than the previous opener and one point lower than the previous close. I think the books are tipping their hand just a bit with that opening number and offering a very enticing number for over bettors. In that previous game, the teams played to a very slow PACE of 88, but were able to hit 205 because of phenomenal shooting performances by both teams (Philly shot 53% from behind the arc, while Miami hit 54% of all shots). It will be extremely difficult for these teams to recreate those shooting performances, especially when you consider that Miami will be keying on stopping Philly's outside shot according to comments from Spoelstra and Philly has a top 5 defense in all major advanced statistical categories (e.g. just to name a few DEFF, TS%, EFG%, Points in the Paint, OF%, Fastbreak Points Per Game, etc.). Philly is coming off a dominating defensive performance against the Bulls and I think they understand the necessity of playing the same type of game in order to defeat another top echelon team like Miami. Miami's dependence on isolation offensive sets and Philly's dominance in defending the same, should play an important role in this game. On the other side, Philly's depth will be a problem for Miami to defend. However, Philly plays at a slow PACE ranked toward the bottom of the league at 90.6. Consequently, I expect this to be classic game where both teams get off to a hot start and then slow it down considerably in the 2h. I have this game set at 190 which supports the books' adjustment in favor of the under in this game, however, I expect the majority of all bets to be in the over's favor at least 60/40 by tip. That provides us with a nice little opportunity to fade the majority in this game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x now and possibly more down the road. Good luck

Play #2

Pistons (+5) 1x (Locked)

This is a pure line value play. Last week, these teams played in milwaukee and the bucks opened at -7 and won by 20 points thanks to an overall shooting % of 51% and 59% from beyond the arc. Needless to say, that will be a difficult performance to reproduce. In this game, the bucks are giving 5 points in what amounts to a 4 point adjustment. That is just way too much for a bucks team that plays poorly on the road. Using standard adjustments, the bucks should be no more than -2 or -2.5 tonight, yet we are getting 5 full points. When you take into account a double revenge angle for detroit, plus a possible look-ahead spot for the bucks as they play the bulls tomorrow, I think the pistons can cover this spread and keep the game close, if not win outright. The pistons strength is down low with monroe and that is where the bucks struggle without bogut. I just don't think the bucks will shoot as well as they did last week and detroit should be motivated because of the revenge angle and the fact that this is a winnable game against a bad road team. I have the pistons at +2.5 in this game based on the stats alone and factoring in the situational analysis makes them a clear "play on." Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the pistons for 1x. Good luck.

[h23jdmlude]

Dropped to 190 at my book. I think I'm going to stay away from this one. BOL to LTA and everyone tailing!

[brucethebear]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/2/2012 Recap

2 - 0 = +2x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

57 - 47 = +10.85x

Let's just keep rolling. Back to the grind. Good luck Friday.

This is what makes you a classy guy LTA.
No chest beating, just straight back to business.

Missed the heat under. Down to 190.5 on my books, so will just cheer the thread on.

[Love The Action]

Might have a few more in addition to the two plays above....