LTA's NBA Plays

[Sixla]

first wanted to say much respect LTA for your work and words, been following the thread for a couple weeks now! Just wanted to know if u think this being Detroits 4th game in 5 nights will cause a stamina issue? Just curious your thoughts on that. Thanks again for your work and plays. Good luck tonight with the plays, im on the Mia/Philly u 194 with u!

[JM92]

I know it might seem sad, but I actually like the Lakers a lot tonight...

As always, great writeups LTA and I totally agree with you.

[Love The Action]

first wanted to say much respect LTA for your work and words, been following the thread for a couple weeks now! Just wanted to know if u think this being Detroits 4th game in 5 nights will cause a stamina issue? Just curious your thoughts on that. Thanks again for your work and plays. Good luck tonight with the plays, im on the Mia/Philly u 194 with u!

No. Look at the boxscores. They have been spreading out the minutes nicely because they have been out of so many games recently.

Third play coming up now. Good luck

[tonyp0387]

There is no 5 out there other then +5 -115 . Your getting lines that are not available to the general public. i doubt anyone got under 194 on the sixers game also.

[mikea33]

There is no 5 out there other then +5 -115 . Your getting lines that are not available to the general public. i doubt anyone got under 194 on the sixers game also.

Look at the opening...he locked it in
In early

[danller]

There is no 5 out there other then +5 -115 . Your getting lines that are not available to the general public. i doubt anyone got under 194 on the sixers game also.

I got +5 -110 and under 194.5

[Donkeys2012]

I got 194 on the sixers game early this morning.

[Moneyliner7]

194

There is no 5 out there other then +5 -115 . Your getting lines that are not available to the general public. i doubt anyone got under 194 on the sixers game also.

I got 194 -108 at heritage early today

[Speedy88]

I'm on Pistons +5 as well. Lets get this one as well. DEEETTRROOITT BASKETBALL!!!

[tonyp0387]

I got +5 -110 and under 194.5

What book????????????????

[danller]

Pinnacle

[Mooks]

I was able to get 194 at 5Dimes this morning I'm happy with this play ~ although I didn't find +5 anywhere~ Locked and loaded for tonight~

[Redscot]

I was able to get 194 at 5Dimes this morning I'm happy with this play ~ although I didn't find +5 anywhere~ Locked and loaded for tonight~

Bodog hit 5, none other that I can find. GL bro, got home WAY too late for the Miami under (you nailed that ) but am riding the Pistons with ya 4 1/2. Getting you the ball and clearing out the side, gotta ride the hot hand . Your hard work always pays off in the long run

[tonyp0387]

Pinnacle

You buy the hook? because pinny never went to 5 . Only book that would go to 5 is a square one like Bodog. I know LTA uses a local book which probably uses a Don Best line service .

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/3/2012

Play #1

Heat/Sixers under (194) 1x (Locked)

This is a rematch of last season's playoff series and the intensity will be heightened. This is not the same Philly team as they are now more experienced and playing at a very high level on both offense and defense. Last season, Philly had a hard time playing well on both sides of the ball on a consistent basis. This season, they have discovered that the true key to consistent winning in the NBA is the result of defensive effort. I expect this game to be all about defense for both teams. Miami is coming off a humiliating loss to the Bucks the day before yesterday and that loss will be fresh in their minds after squandering a 17 point lead. In addition to running way too many ineffective isolation sets, Miami's defense was atrocious. This presents a great bounce-back opportunity for Miami to get rolling on defense once again. The key to this play is getting at least 194, which is the third most common final score in the NBA behind 189 and 197. While I do understand that this total might go up before it goes back down, I was targeting 194 so I could not pass it up and risk losing it while I am at work. That is why I am locking this one up now before the ref assignments are released. If this total goes up to 195 before dropping, there is a solid chance I bump this up to a 1.5x play or more. Even though the Heat and Sixers are ranked 2nd and 6th respectively in OEFF, they are also ranked 10th and 1st in DEFF. Because they are both coming off a day of rest, I expect the intensity of this game to manifest itself on the defensive edge. I suspect we do not see many open looks for either team, as both defenses will look to establish themselves early. These two teams played to a 205 point final score on January 21st, with a total that opened at 195 and closed at 193 with Pinny juicing the under at -113 (which is like -126 at any other book). Now, despite a 205 final score on a closer of 193, Pinny opened today's game with an adjustment in favor of the under by opening at 192, a full three points lower than the previous opener and one point lower than the previous close. I think the books are tipping their hand just a bit with that opening number and offering a very enticing number for over bettors. In that previous game, the teams played to a very slow PACE of 88, but were able to hit 205 because of phenomenal shooting performances by both teams (Philly shot 53% from behind the arc, while Miami hit 54% of all shots). It will be extremely difficult for these teams to recreate those shooting performances, especially when you consider that Miami will be keying on stopping Philly's outside shot according to comments from Spoelstra and Philly has a top 5 defense in all major advanced statistical categories (e.g. just to name a few DEFF, TS%, EFG%, Points in the Paint, OF%, Fastbreak Points Per Game, etc.). Philly is coming off a dominating defensive performance against the Bulls and I think they understand the necessity of playing the same type of game in order to defeat another top echelon team like Miami. Miami's dependence on isolation offensive sets and Philly's dominance in defending the same, should play an important role in this game. On the other side, Philly's depth will be a problem for Miami to defend. However, Philly plays at a slow PACE ranked toward the bottom of the league at 90.6. Consequently, I expect this to be classic game where both teams get off to a hot start and then slow it down considerably in the 2h. I have this game set at 190 which supports the books' adjustment in favor of the under in this game, however, I expect the majority of all bets to be in the over's favor at least 60/40 by tip. That provides us with a nice little opportunity to fade the majority in this game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x now and possibly more down the road. Good luck

Play #2

Pistons (+5) 1x (Locked)

This is a pure line value play. Last week, these teams played in milwaukee and the bucks opened at -7 and won by 20 points thanks to an overall shooting % of 51% and 59% from beyond the arc. Needless to say, that will be a difficult performance to reproduce. In this game, the bucks are giving 5 points in what amounts to a 4 point adjustment. That is just way too much for a bucks team that plays poorly on the road. Using standard adjustments, the bucks should be no more than -2 or -2.5 tonight, yet we are getting 5 full points. When you take into account a double revenge angle for detroit, plus a possible look-ahead spot for the bucks as they play the bulls tomorrow, I think the pistons can cover this spread and keep the game close, if not win outright. The pistons strength is down low with monroe and that is where the bucks struggle without bogut. I just don't think the bucks will shoot as well as they did last week and detroit should be motivated because of the revenge angle and the fact that this is a winnable game against a bad road team. I have the pistons at +2.5 in this game based on the stats alone and factoring in the situational analysis makes them a clear "play on." Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the pistons for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Pacers/Mavericks under (192) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup. My only concern is the mavs 3 point shooting against a pacers defense that can struggle against good outside shooters. Nevertheless, both teams have top ten DEFF ratings and play more half court than transition. I have this game set at 187.5, so I am rolling with the value on the under and fading the big line move for 1x. Good luck.

[Moneyliner7]

I got 194 at -108 and 4.5 + .5 at -118 heritage

[danller]

Yeah, but the price was just -110, +4.5 is at even money. +5 is still there for -110

[Redscot]

You buy the hook? because pinny never went to 5 . Only book that would go to 5 is a square one like Bodog. I know LTA uses a local book which probably uses a Don Best line service .

LTA has always recommended having options, which he utilizes, gotta have a square book amongst them to get certain lines.

[tonyp0387]

Yeah, but the price was just -110, +4.5 is at even money. +5 is still there for -110

well pinny never went past 193.5 on the total so i guess you bought a point there also. And here in the states no one uses pinny so everyone else would pay -120

[Love The Action]

There is no 5 out there other then +5 -115 . Your getting lines that are not available to the general public. i doubt anyone got under 194 on the sixers game also.

You buy the hook? because pinny never went to 5 . Only book that would go to 5 is a square one like Bodog. I know LTA uses a local book which probably uses a Don Best line service .

Come on tonyp, you know me better than that. I post the number I play. I posted the under at 8am, so not sure what you are talking about with that one.

As far as the pistons play, I believe +5 was available at blowdog. However, as you mention, I play with two local books out of the midwest. One book follows pinny/5d lines and the other is similar to legends numbers. However, when pinny moves to -110 juice or more on a side or total, my local book that follows pinny jumps a half point. Consequently, when pinny started juicing the bucks -4.5 at -110, I was able to get +5. Sometimes this hurts me, but when this happens, I can still usually get the number im looking for through my other local.

As you know, that's why it is so important to have as many outlets as possible. I am currently seeking out another possible local and/or thinking about putting some money offshore at 5d, just so I can have a third option.

Good luck in whatever you decide buddy.

[danller]

Maybe so mate, just sayin what I paid, and it was -110 for u 194.5. Gl tonight

[Love The Action]

well pinny never went past 193.5 on the total so i guess you bought a point there also. And here in the states no one uses pinny so everyone else would pay -120

Check the line history for 5d between 740am & 8am CST when I posted. 194 was available.

[tonyp0387]

Just telling the truth . most people can't get those lines when you post them at that price. Your a nice guy bol to you .

[Donkeys2012]

Terrible end of the first quarter in the miami game. These chumps need to stop drianing 3's

[danller]

Final card lta?

[tonyp0387]

you posted at 8:43 am. I bet at that time most books were at 193.5. must books never hit 194 imo.

[LDuck2012]

man so man fken 3point open shots

[Donkeys2012]

What are you in here trying to say you clown. I got 194 after LTA posted. Just cause your bitter doesnt mean you need to come on here acting like a fool. Move on.

[Sixla]

i locked in 194 on 5d at 9:15am

[LDuck2012]

finally missing some shots

[TC Woods]

All of you fuks that wanna argue, cause trouble and be an overall JACK-OFF.... Move on and fuk up someone else's thread

Hosebags

[alamo]

you posted at 8:43 am. I bet at that time most books were at 193.5. must books never hit 194 imo.

LTA's numbers he has posted have never once been questioned EVER. I got 194 and get many of the lines he posts. Let it go. He aint lying. Now drop it and lets move on.

[Mooks]

I locked in 194 at 6:09am west coast time at 5Dimes

[DirtyBird1500]

Any leans on the side in that Pacers/Mavs game? I'm thinking Mavs but not sure yet...

Thanks for all your work. I've been following your threads since football season and have learned alot. First time ever posting in here, but just wanted to let you know your input is appreciated.

[Love The Action]

Just telling the truth . most people can't get those lines when you post them at that price. Your a nice guy bol to you .

Hmmm....those that responded would disagree.

When you are making +ev plays, the line is going to move in support of your plays. I have been making some great +ev plays, even with some of my losses. Therefore, of course the line is going to move in my favor. Those people who follow my thread and and get down right when I post, usually get the same number. Obviously, if you catch my plays after they have been posted for multiple hours, then there is a solid chance it has moved by then.

Regardless, I am not a tout and cannot control what others get. That is not my concern. My goal is to get myself the best number and to beat the pinny closer. As long as I do that, I am happy. While I wish that everyone could get my number, that is out of my control and I cant worry about that. Im not here for glory or to tout my record, im here to learn and to help. Nevertheless, my sole concern is earning profit for my family. I share my plays out of generosity. Should I be obligated to post a worse number than I actually got just because everyone that follows all over the world at different times of the day cant always get my same number? Ofcourse not. While I like helping others, I have to worry about my own BR above all else. Therefore, I must be brutally honest when I say that vi really don't care if those who follow can't always get my number. Although, I do always try to post as soon as possible after locking up a play so that as many as possible can get that same number. Unfortunately, I just cant please everyone.

Good luck tonight. I hope we can both make some money