LTA's NBA Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

Damn Donnie! Are you playing full time? That's some nice coin bro.....keep up the great run man.

Nah, just part time. My nursing career allows me to play part time and make my sure money. I do have a family to support. I hope maybe to early retire into it full time. Goin today and tomorrow.

[jas19illini]

Anyone else like the Overs today? I'm leaning Over in all but the ATL game.

[mikea33]

LTA im excited for ya buddy keep it up! NBA Seems to be ur best. I love how cooperative , and helpful. Being profitable is cool too

[Catchn_Picks]

I just mentioned in addition to the fact that we dont allow the usual sbr BS to affect us. Its all about business in this thread, making money and learning. We try to do things the right way by earning great profit with minimal risk. That is our goal and we will keep doing what we do best. Good luck tonight.

******

No we don't allow the nuts to crush our spirit, LTA.

It is soooo silly in many cases. You are a hero when you win and a goat when you don't. This game takes maturity. The laws of variance can be mathematically amazing. You can have a 5% advantage on every single game (a huge advantage, btw). And go for a month hitting 40% winners without ever challenging the laws of probability.

Of course it looks bad when you lose a game. Everything you projected to happen did not occur. If you could truly KNOW exactly what would happen in each game then everybody would know and then the line would skyrocket. And then the books would not take your action. And then your hobby would be over.

The variance keeps us in play. The variance is our friend. It warms and comforts us.

You guys were talking about sports betting books. Someone mentioned the book "The Smart Money" by Michael Konik. Get that book. You will learn nothing about how to calculate bets and make plays but everything about how a professional group of betting pros (Billy Walters group) bets and thinks about betting. Watch how long their run outs of losers go on sometimes. Then all of a sudden they go on a tear and make all of their money for the month in just a few days. If they didn't keep their heads together and kept firing, they would have lost it all.

Great book. Reading it now for the third time. Cannot put it down still.

BOL

I have now been officially removed from my soapbox.

Catch

[Donnie Brasco]

Anyone else like the Overs today? I'm leaning Over in all but the ATL game.

Where do u see the most variance compared to vegas?

[Walulu]

What ever happened to the DJ wih all the smiley's dancing? I dont see it in the list anymore

Gotta scroll to the right and it's all the way at the bottom. Nice job with your calls last night LTA!

[m3junkie]

good luck today lta!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/2/2012

Play #1

Hornets/Spurs under (183.5) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that neither team looks to play a fast pace and I just dont see the hornets shooting over 51% like the last time they played or as they have done in their last two games. NO just doesn't have the firepower to keep that offensive production going. The hornets rank toward the bottom in OEFF, EFG%,TS%, etc. With Duncan most likely resting tonight, that will hurt the spurs offensive efficiency in the paint. Usually, I like to look at the over when both teams are on a b2b, 4 in 5 like tonight, but in this case I think the under is the play because I expect the fatigue to manifest itself in a slower pace and poor shooting percentage. These two teams played about ten days ago to a 206 final score which was the result of SA shooting 54% and NO shooting 50% from the field and behind the arc, but only playing at an 88 PACE. I expect a similar slow PACE, but I just dont see these tired teams shooting so well. I have this game set at 180 giving us 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Mooks]

LTA- just wanted too thank you for the great write ups on the games ~ I have been tailing you this NBA season with a large BR so far so good ~ let's keep it rolling!!

[mikea33]

LTA on that....Im also on Portland, I feel they have theres starters rested and are just rolling full force right now...and sac town isnt the hardest team to cover a 3 point spread again. im just worried the line is how it is. Insight?

[Donnie Brasco]

Boom!!!!! Just win a $450 pot!!!!

[Donnie Brasco]

Waited patiently for that one! And to think LTA puts that on one game!

[CHAZ]

GL tonight LTA!

[Love The Action]

Boom!!!!! Just win a $450 pot!!!!

Congrats buddy

[Love The Action]

Will have a play in the late game between nuggz/clipps.....just waiting to see if I can get a better number.

[mikea33]

Is it over lta?

[Redscot]

Will have a play in the late game between nuggz/clipps.....just waiting to see if I can get a better number.

Glad to hear it.......which way you leaning bro (an hour diff. here atm and I will probably be down and out game time)

On another note, there is a thread on "trap lines" check it out, would be really curious to hear your opinion on the topic.

[SoxSide Irish]

Waiting for that over to drop back to 205.5?

[JM92]

I just dont know If I can restrain myself on not taking Hawks, Clippers and Bulls tonight. Even if you dont play it, any thoughts on the Bulls LTA?

Might just do a "fun" parlay tonight!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/2/2012

Play #1

Hornets/Spurs under (183.5) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that neither team looks to play a fast pace and I just dont see the hornets shooting over 51% like the last time they played or as they have done in their last two games. NO just doesn't have the firepower to keep that offensive production going. The hornets rank toward the bottom in OEFF, EFG%,TS%, etc. With Duncan most likely resting tonight, that will hurt the spurs offensive efficiency in the paint. Usually, I like to look at the over when both teams are on a b2b, 4 in 5 like tonight, but in this case I think the under is the play because I expect the fatigue to manifest itself in a slower pace and poor shooting percentage. These two teams played about ten days ago to a 206 final score which was the result of SA shooting 54% and NO shooting 50% from the field and behind the arc, but only playing at an 88 PACE. I expect a similar slow PACE, but I just dont see these tired teams shooting so well. I have this game set at 180 giving us 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nuggets (+1) 1x (Locked)

I only wish I had this game capped last night and I would have played 1x at +2 and 1x on the ml at +115. This is a bad fatigue spot for the clippers, a great revenge spot for the nuggz and the nuggz are the better team (at least statistically). I love the nuggz tonight and I love them even more as I see clipper love growing by the day. I really don't think +1 will mean anything tonight as I expect the nuggz to win this one fairly easily. the Clipshow is playing b2b and 4 in 5 against a rested denver team that has lawson back and will be running all over the place. Denver is playing with revenge after losing to the clips just a few days ago because of an unreal shooting performance by both billups and the rest of the clips that they will be hard pressed to recreate. Denver has the better advanced scores than than the clipshow in both offense and defense, especially in the paint where denver ranks 1st offensively and the clips rank 25th defensively. There is a misconception out there that the clips have a good defense and denver has a poor defense, but the clips bottom 10 and denvers top 12 DEFF ratings would say otherwise. Denver is a fine road team and will be at full strength against a tired clip team that could be without butler. I have the nuggz set at a pk, so not a ton of value, but this is a very tough spot for los angeles. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with nuggets for 1x. Good luck.

[Donkeys2012]

San Antonio under now at 181.5 moving in our direction nicely.

[Love The Action]

I just dont know If I can restrain myself on not taking Hawks, Clippers and Bulls tonight. Even if you dont play it, any thoughts on the Bulls LTA?

Might just do a "fun" parlay tonight!

I would probably play the bulls at the -1.5 range, but not higher. +4 or more is decent value on the knicks.

I realy like the nuggz, so I disagree with that one.

No opinion on the hawks. I think that number is pretty accurate. Good luck.

[LeoMessi]

LTA, for all your european followers, could you please tell us if the card is final? I'd really love to go to sleep. Thank you for your work, I'm very impressed and learning a lot day by day

[JM92]

Play #2

Nuggets (+1) 1x (Locked)

I only wish I had this game capped last night and I would have played 1x at +2 and 1x on the ml at +115. This is a bad fatigue spot for the clippers, a great revenge spot for the nuggz and the nuggz are the better team (at least statistically). ´
.

I love your write up as always, but I got say this one is spot one in a not so good way for your bet I think. The Clippers for me have to be considered the better team here if not for more, CP3 itself and his ability to change a game, especially come crunch time. With that said, I had completely forgotten the fatigue factor and I'm rolling with you on this play as always.

I would probably play the bulls at the -1.5 range, but not higher. +4 or more is decent value on the knicks.

I realy like the nuggz, so I disagree with that one.

No opinion on the hawks. I think that number is pretty accurate. Good luck.

I was speaking about the MLs. I've made my parlay of the day already, with the Hawks and the Bulls. Probably will take the Hawks on the spread as well.

Thank you and GL as always

[Donnie Brasco]

Why is portland line so low?

[mikea33]

Idk donnie. im taking portland regardless

[Donnie Brasco]

U done LTA?

[Love The Action]

LTA, for all your european followers, could you please tell us if the card is final? I'd really love to go to sleep. Thank you for your work, I'm very impressed and learning a lot day by day

Card is final. Good luck gentlemen

[Speedy88]

Jarrett Jack was just announced out. Should help your under LTA. BOL as always.

[Donnie Brasco]

Card is final. Good luck gentlemen

U too bud

[LeoMessi]

Thank you LTA, good luck to you too

[burchfield]

Thanks for the plays. Wrapped them up in a parlay for a lil fun

[Donkeys2012]

Hopefully New Orleans cools off. 52% not helping matters.

[jackdean33]

ahh this is really going to come down the wire.

[jackdean33]

5 pts last 14 seconds wasn't helpful

139 end of the 3rd so we need to keep this last quarter under 45 pts. Going to be very tight.

Denver is a smart play.