LTA's NBA Plays

Catchn_Picks · 02-01-12, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/1/2012

Play #1

Heat/Bucks over (195) 2x (Locked)

Just able to post this now. Will try to get you a full writeup. This is a rematch of a game from last week that closed at 192.5 at pinny, stayed under by 20 points and still opened at 194.5. Hmmmm.....the books adjusting upwards despite a low total result only one week ago? To me, they lean over just like my model. I was prepared to make this a 3x play at 194, but I was never able to get it. As soon as I saw 195 a few hrs ago, I jumped on it. This is not the same old bucks as they are ranked 11th in PACE and play even faster when bogut is out. However, their usual stout defense is non existant ranked in the bottom ten of DEFF and otger relevant categories. Miami plays at the 2nd fastest PACE and has the best OEFF rating. In the last game, both teams shot under 37% at an 89 PACE. I expect both of those numbers to improve today, including 3 point shooting after shooting a collective 8 for 42 last game. The refs are rush, blair and wood who are all over leaning guys. I have this game set at 198.5, but with the bucks hitting triple figures in 4 straight games (against good defenses like bulls and lakers) and miami's ability to score 100 on a nightly basis, I think this one hits 200. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Was this over 195 for the game or the half?.

I'll take this first quarter score any day for a multi unit play.

40-23??!!

Let's keep it going!

letsgo · 02-01-12, 08:44 PM

Sixers up big

Love The Action · 02-01-12, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Contemplating a play on the over in the Spurs/Rockets game. Will post if I play it.

Going to begrudgingly lay off of this play. Even though both teams can score in the point on offense with an inability to stop anyone from scoring in the paint on defense, I'm a little leery of Houston's solid perimeter defense shutting down the Spurs' outside shot. Plus, neither team draws any foul shots and both defenses are good at avoiding fouls. I was hoping to see some steam on the over before the game but the line was rather stagnant. Even though I would not be surprised to see a 200 point final score, I am going to lay off. It was a very strong lean and was worthy of a play at 194 or 195. At 196.5, probably better to avoid it. Good luck to anyone on this play.

Sport_Fish · 02-01-12, 09:03 PM

The Heat/Bucks over is FAR from being a winner right now.

Looking good though =)

SoxSide Irish · 02-01-12, 09:10 PM

Pace really slowed down...glad I cashed heat first half thanks to lebron's first quarter

Love The Action · 02-01-12, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by Sport_Fish

The Heat/Bucks over is FAR from being a winner right now.

That's what I'm saying.....let's let this one play out before commenting.

I am Happy · 02-01-12, 09:19 PM

Yea, far from being able to comment.
Ie. boston At 3.5 last night with a local.

JM92 · 02-01-12, 09:44 PM

Btw LTA, hope you don't mind me askin' for the advice.

On my recap, I think even though I ended up winning the over @ Orlando by 30 points, I did a great thing by jumping on that over 182.5 ever if at -120. I say this because, the closing line @ my bookie was 185. And it was 185.5 in lots of places. For instance, and Im going to use the decimal odds here, bet365 had the 182.5 number @ 1.66 (- 120 = 1.85), and Pinnacle, yes, Pinny itself had the 184 @ 1.8. So i'm guessing it was definitively and EV+ play, right?

Prize Marlin · 02-01-12, 09:47 PM

LTA do you have any plays on the 10pm games?? Im thinking go with charlotte and jazz? your input is appreciated

mikea33 · 02-01-12, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by Prize Marlin

LTA do you have any plays on the 10pm games?? Im thinking go with charlotte and jazz? your input is appreciated

Clippers

Catchn_Picks · 02-01-12, 10:01 PM

wow...199 pace only...damn. This should be over already.

Come on!

Catchn_Picks · 02-01-12, 10:10 PM

Unreal...does Miami know that it is losing the game?

Catchn_Picks · 02-01-12, 10:11 PM

Miami with only three points in the fourth quarter with 4 minutes left.

Wow

Sport_Fish · 02-01-12, 10:13 PM

Its time everyone added the 'Miami 4Q meltdown co-efficient' to their Total formulas.

Catchn_Picks · 02-01-12, 10:14 PM

199 pace

Catchn_Picks · 02-01-12, 10:17 PM

starting to heat up

Dmil · 02-01-12, 10:22 PM

Yess great job LTA

I am Happy · 02-01-12, 10:22 PM

You got it

Catchn_Picks · 02-01-12, 10:23 PM

Great hit LTA.

Nice sweep too.

hey buddy · 02-01-12, 10:24 PM

Nice pick LTA. Should have never been that close of a call but a win is a win. Looking forward to the coming plays

absolutkaos · 02-01-12, 10:27 PM

great plays LTA! thanks as always!

SoxSide Irish · 02-01-12, 10:31 PM

SoxSide Irish · 02-01-12, 10:32 PM

What ever happened to the DJ wih all the smiley's dancing? I dont see it in the list anymore

Dmil · 02-01-12, 10:42 PM

Okc ML

winnah

YouHave2outs · 02-01-12, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Sorry, I've never intentionally dismissed your questions...just busy. All questions are important; there are no stupid questions. In this case, you should hit up the think tank as there is a ton of stuff out there on expected value in relation to your calculated projections and the closing number. I also recommend weighing the odds, conquering risk and similar books. You are a poker guy, so i'm sure you understand how to calculate expected value and apply this to sports investing. Good luck!

thanks LTA, good luck to you!

Donnie Brasco · 02-02-12, 12:20 AM

Great night!

alamo · 02-02-12, 03:09 AM

Two great calls LTA. Well done !

wizcodlifa · 02-02-12, 04:04 AM

hey i been following u all year. i had an amazing night last night. i went 5-0 n up 500 dollars on the night. i was wondering how i should manage my money after such a big day?? any technique to it or just keep same thing?

Donnie Brasco · 02-02-12, 06:03 AM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

hey i been following u all year. i had an amazing night last night. i went 5-0 n up 500 dollars on the night. i was wondering how i should manage my money after such a big day?? any technique to it or just keep same thing?

Ur gambling bankroll should be managed by wagering no more than 2-5% per wager. If ur roll is $500, then a one unit bet would be $10 and ur max wager would be around $25. That would be sound management of a bankroll of $500. You should never risk $100 ( or 20%) of ur bankroll on one play. Best of luck!

Donnie Brasco · 02-02-12, 06:07 AM

I just realized in ur write up you said u had the game set at 198.5 and u saw it hitting 200. You are really tuned in right now LTA. Fantastic work!

Redscot · 02-02-12, 06:34 AM

Great calls my man

. I knew my Bulls play was

when I saw you on the 76ers (especially as well as you know your Bulls) unfortunately it was too late for me to buy out. Had a much bigger wager on the Heat over though so it's all good, and I am glad you and the tailers cashed em both.

Look's like I picked the right time to increase my LTA unit size, knowing you, it seems like an extended run is inevitable. Keep up the great work bro, you know your hard work is greatly appreciated around here.

Redscot · 02-02-12, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Played friday, won 1300 in a 17 hr session. Sunday 8 hr sessio 400. Going tomorrow. Good luck tonight!

Damn Donnie! Are you playing full time? That's some nice coin bro.....keep up the great run man.

CarmeLO15 · 02-02-12, 07:15 AM

Congrats on your 2x pick LTA !

Love The Action · 02-02-12, 07:43 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/1/2012 Recap

2 - 0 = +3x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

55 - 47 = +8.85x

Nice night, but we have to sustain this momentum and string together multiple profitable nights in a row with more consistency. However, I am pleased with our current position as we remain primed to make a big run. We are currently hitting at 54% and up almost 9x which is very solid. If I cared about flashy unit counts, I could have just used 4x as my base wager instead of 1x because my 1x is equal to over $400. Had I done that, I would have almost 36x in profit this season and it would be clear that I am up over $3,600 so far. However, I dont care about sbr glory, I only care about my BR and as long as I know that number is fat then I am happy. There are too many cappers around here that try to scam you guys by using ridiculous unit amounts in order to make themselves look better than they are. In this thread, I tell you exactly what to expect - we will hit between 53%-55% with a gradual unit increase over time that should yield a profit of between 30x -50x by the end of the NBA finals. You wont see bailout plays, touting or me playing both sides of the fence (i.e. the guys who always claim they win because of an unposted hedge or unposted plays). I also try to answer as many questions as possible so we can all learn together. There was a question on the board about why people like this thread. If I had to guess, its because of the reasons I just mentioned in addition to the fact that we dont allow the usual sbr BS to affect us. Its all about business in this thread, making money and learning. We try to do things the right way by earning great profit with minimal risk. That is our goal and we will keep doing what we do best. Good luck tonight

Love The Action · 02-02-12, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Damn Donnie! Are you playing full time? That's some nice coin bro.....keep up the great run man.

I agree! Great job Donnie!