200.5 @ sportsbook
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NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/31/2012
Play #1
Kings/Warriors over (197) 1x (Locked)
Been waiting for this one to drop all day. Writeup to come when I get off work. Good luck.Comment -
Was just thinking about that one actually! Lets get'em LTA, same formula than the Wiz/Bobcats game I'm thinking here.Comment -
level of confidence LTA?Comment -
If he is playing it he's got at least $300 (forget his personal NBA unit) on it, real money, he won't make a play unless it passes through his filters. He caps every game, so you can assume if he makes a play it is with confidence.Originally posted by Cruizer
GL on the play bro, tailing
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I got under 199 thinking of getting over 197 :P
Hope i can get both at 198 Final score 102 96 lolComment -
If i can only get it at 199.5 for $1.95 is it worth touching?Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
Game doesn't start for over 3 1/2 hours... maybe wait???Originally posted by jackdean33Comment -
The problem is though the website i use doesn't adjust the line, it just adjusts the odds.Originally posted by TC WoodsComment -
No, each game/matchup is different. Good luck!Originally posted by JM92
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Not sure what you mean. I post plays between 1x and 5x (biggest play so far has been a 2.5x play that cashed; 4-1 on plays 2x or more on the season). I only play multiple units in rare spots. This is a 1x play. GLOriginally posted by Cruizer
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You know it bud! Up to $440 per 1x now for NBA...just bumped it a bit from $400 not too long ago. Good luck!Originally posted by RedscotIf he is playing it he's got at least $300 (forget his personal NBA unit) on it, real money, he won't make a play unless it passes through his filters. He caps every game, so you can assume if he makes a play it is with confidence.
GL on the play bro, tailing
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damn memphis only shooting 30% in my game for the night and it seems like they were able to slow denver up a bit...on to tomorrow for me gl on your late play!Comment -
One important aspect to this play is that it never drop below the key number of 197, which is the second most common final score in NBA basketball. Note that right around 6pm EST, the line movement at Pinny went from 199 U-113 to 197 -105 (when I jumped on it) and then all the way back to 198 where it currently sits. The idea being that there is someone out there that likes the over above that key number. If this one drops below 197, that would not be good. Nonetheless, I think we see a competitive game tonight with a solid offensive performance from Sacramento , even though we don't have Thornton. I am hoping that Jimmer can make a few shots, but also brings his standard poor performance on defense. With both teams struggling right now on defense ranked in the bottom 1/3 in most statistically relevant categories, but playing with a faster PACE (both ranked top 10), I think we see a competitive, back and forth game predicated on offense. One of the guys mentioned that this play is similar to the over we played between Cats/Wiz and after thinking about it some more, I would have to agree. Even though these teams are not in a fatigue spot like that game, both teams have no reason to play defense in this one. This one is all about padding offensive stats and running up and down the floor scoring. I have this game set at 201 giving us 2 fg's of "value" at 197. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
LTA what you think of 1H over 99?Comment -
Originally posted by Love The Action
Win or lose LTA, it was very cool for you to take the time to write this writeup as you had mentioned before.
You seem to have a busy life as a professional. Thank you for the effort and BOL
CatchComment -
Originally posted by Love The ActionI almost forgot that the ref assignments are favorable to the over with Fraher, Philips and Twardoski. This will be relevant because Sacramento is already one of the better teams at drawing foul calls with a FT/FGA ranked 9th in the league, while GS has some players that can get calls with guys like Fraher with the whistle around his neck. Philips is another long time over guy, while Twardoski is a relatively new official with not enough data to make any conclusions. Nevertheless, all three guys have averaged anywhere from 40 to 55 fouls per game in games they officiated over their careers. I love this crew for tonight's over play. Good luck.Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
Don't cap the game by halves....sorry. Good luck.Originally posted by bringdownthehous
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Originally posted by Catchn_Picks
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Originally posted by Catchn_Picks
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out of curiosity do you keep a copy of your write ups offline? solid work as always
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Let's get the ball in the air!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
No.Originally posted by jackdean33
European odds of 1.95 is approximately -105 in american odds. Considering the Pinny market is at 198 currently and I bought this play at 197, the only price you should be willing to accept for 199.5 is +135 or +140. Otherwise you are getting raped. I would not play this above 199 regardless though. Good luck buddy.
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Thanks and good luck LTA! Fraher is actually a friend of mine. He's a nice guy...very "by the book". We play golf at the same club in Minneapolis. Let's go fouls and overs
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If I were you, I would be asking myself how I can get some inside info.Originally posted by southpaw74Thanks and good luck LTA! Fraher is actually a friend of mine. He's a nice guy...very "by the book". We play golf at the same club in Minneapolis. Let's go fouls and overs
Plus, you better not let NoCoin read that or he will think that you are part of all these NBA "fixes"
Seriously though, that's pretty cool....
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ThankyouOriginally posted by Love The ActionNo. European odds of 1.95 is approximately -105 in american odds. Considering the Pinny market is at 198 currently and I bought this play at 197, the only price you should be willing to accept for 199.5 is +135 or +140. Otherwise you are getting raped. I would not play this above 199 regardless though. Good luck buddy.
Do you think you will have many plays tomorrow and if so, posted before or after work?
Cheers for any info.
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Yeah, we don't talk much about his work but i should i guess. They are so strict after the betting shakedown that he won't even bet a dime on the golf course. It's sad. Every other gut I play with at the club I have 5 bets with every round but not Fraher. He loves the strip clubs thoughOriginally posted by Love The ActionIf I were you, I would be asking myself how I can get some inside info.
Plus, you better not let NoCoin read that or he will think that you are part of all these NBA "fixes"
Seriously though, that's pretty cool....
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..speaking of..does anyone know if there's a way to receive text alerts when a certain someone posts?
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yes PM me I will do it for $5 a post / textOriginally posted by bleedtoledo..speaking of..does anyone know if there's a way to receive text alerts when a certain someone posts?
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Lol, good one Hawley!! Guess there's a price for everythingComment -
ha but seriously don't think that is possible at this stage!Originally posted by bleedtoledoComment -
I only know of the text you can get from twitterComment -
Even though we are a little down right now with a 188 pace after the end of the 1st, the start of the game was terrible and the pace really started to get going. If that carries over to the second quarter, we can get in position to win.Comment -
you can subscribe to the thread so that everytime someone posts it emails you. I get my emails immediately on my phone, so my phone is buzzing all day with every meaningless post that is made haha its all worth it though when LTA posts a last second gemOriginally posted by bleedtoledo..speaking of..does anyone know if there's a way to receive text alerts when a certain someone posts?Comment -
Lets hope this hits it is my only play of the nightOriginally posted by dlunc3Comment
