Dallas up to -2.5 now...
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I agree, I think there is value in the -2. I have this game set at -3.5. However, even though Melo is out and Terry is playing, the Knicks have been playing fantastic defense lately and I expect that will keep them in this game. When teams go on these crazy rolls and really start to build camaraderie and respect for each other by playing as a team, I try not to fade them. I am going to sit this one out. Good luck in whatever you choose.
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Nice....Nuggz/Thunder steamed all the way to 211 where I also have that game set and the Bucks/Nets game is almost to the 195.5 closing range that I predicted. Let's hope that line movement continues in our favor for the rest of the day and closes at or near the current numbers.Comment -
Really liking the Suns tonight. Any lean there LTA?Comment -
Here's what I was looking for:
NBA Key Numbers
by Jeremy Martin
There are certain key numbers in professional sports that can cause trouble for bookmakers. Key numbers are most prevalent in the NFL, where a high percentage of games land on the numbers three and seven. Most people familiar with sports betting recognize these as important numbers concerning NFL wagering. However, many bettors are not aware that there are certain key numbers in the NBA that bookies must contend with on a nightly basis. Two and seven are considered the main key numbers in professional basketball.
Bookies have, for the most part, ignored NBA key numbers for years. But recently so many games have fallen on or close to these numbers that bookmakers have begun to take notice. The NBA has some of the biggest line moves of any of the major betting sports, so bookies must be extra careful when they set their numbers. If they move the number too much or make a bad judgment call it could cause them to get 'middled' or 'sided,' which is basically a bookie's worst nightmare (paying out on both sides or paying out on one side and returning money to all other customers).
Two is probably the most important of all key numbers in the NBA. When a point spread is set on or close to two, there is a high probability that the game will be close. Close games in the NBA are usually decided on the last basket and the winning team normally wins by between one and three points. Bookies must use caution when moving the number in situations like these.
"We really don't like to bounce back and forth from two to three," said Bob Scucci, Race & Sportsbook manager For The Stardust in Las Vegas. "Two seems to be as solid of a number as you can get in the NBA. When (the game is) as close to a 'pick'em as two is, you are anticipating a very competitive game that could go right down to the wire. That two points and three points is a big difference. You are playing for that last shot that puts it on a two. We try not to move to frequently between 1 ½ and 2 ½."
"In basketball ones and twos are as close to key numbers as you can get," added Doug Beil, race and sportsbook manager for Terrible's Hotel/Casino in Las Vegas. "If it is a close game and the spread is two points or less, more frequently than just random chance the games are close and they tend to fall. This goes for college (basketball) as well.
"Lets say one team starts out as a one-point favorite and then the other team goes off as a one-point favorite - which happens a lot in basketball. Or if you start off as a one-point favorite and then you close at two or 2 ½ -- that also happens a lot. So if it is a close game and it happens to fall on one or two, that becomes a key number that can zap you. That's the reality."
Sevens are so important because that is the point differential (three possessions) in the NBA when the trailing team will, in theory, stop fouling. Many NBA bettors have frustratingly torn up a losing ticket after wagering on a 6 1/2 -point dog in a close game only to see their team lose by seven in the final seconds because of a barrage of late-game fouls. Fouls and the resulting shots from the charity stripe are a big part of the game and must be factored into each and every NBA wager. According to Scucci, more and more games are falling on this key number.
"I have seen in recent years a lot more games falling on seven than any other number, and that's regardless of the point spread," he said. "I mean I have seen 'pick'em games that fall seven and 10-point spreads that fall on seven. That is starting to become one of those numbers to really start watching for as far as being a key number.
"It has everything to do with fouls. Two becomes three, becomes four, becomes seven. You know, that whole thing. It's a two-point game in the last minute (of regulation). It is back and forth, anyone's game and suddenly it turns into seven."
Beil believes that fouling is up in the NBA this year, especially at the end of games. He doesn't necessarily buy into the notion that teams will stop fouling when they are down by seven.
"I think it depends on how much time there is left," he said. "In the NBA generally speaking teams will foul if they are within 10 or 12 points. And then if they are playing teams with bad foul shooters like a Ben Wallace or Shaquille O'Neal, they will zero in and foul those guys even more. "It seems like (teams will) foul more often and earlier and later in games than years past. Maybe it has to do with how bad the foul shooters are. I've seen teams down by seven or eight with 15 seconds left fouling. It almost seems like there is no end to it unless the game is really out of reach."Comment -
Dallas dropped back to -2 on Sportsbook.Comment -
that's an investment-grade 10%-ish yield...15.75 units netted vs. 154 (approx.) units risked (140games@1.10)...5% yield is like hitting 0.300 in baseballComment -
Damn the Bucks total already moved to 195.5 whilst the Thunder total hit the 210.5. You have gotten some fine number before the steam hit.Comment -
Rolling with Linsanity today!
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Play #3
Jazz (+7)(-120) 1x (Locked)
I'm going to buy some insurance here on the key number of 7 (for all those reading the article above). If it wasn't for Utah's road record, this would be an easy play. I just think 7 points is too much when these teams are such an even matchup. I have this game set at Utah +4.5 and by buying the hook we give ourselves 2.5 points of value when compared to the 7 we are playing. Pinny is at +6 and juicing the Jazz at -107 but Legends is hanging +6.5. I would buy the hook there if you are so inclined. I know others don't like this strategy, but I maintain that it can be the right move under certain circumstances. I also maintain that such circumstances exist in this game. Utah dominates Houston statistically in both points in the paint and fast-break points/fast-break point efficiency where Utah ranks top 7 in both. Defensively, both teams matchup evenly where they rank top 5 in perimeter three point defense. However, Utah does not depend on the three pointers like Houston does so their proficiency in that area is less harmful to Utah. However, Houston is very dependent on the three and Utah's ability to defend that shot should lead to the cover tonight. I think this should be a close game throughout and I have Utah set at +4.5. If it wasn't for Utah's previous struggles on the road, this game would be set closer. Utah has had success against Houston in Houston with some of these players and that experience should help tonight. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
I was thinking about adding the UTAH ML to the one of the Pistons. My first thought was actually to take Denver against my Thunder but then they said Nene wasnt playing and Westbrook was so I changed my mind and tailed you on the over. I will tail you on this one and sprinkle a little something something on the ML.Comment -
I would like to go with the under in Orlando - Miami, LTA can you please tell me where you have this match set at?Comment -
BOL in all your plays today LTAComment -
Love the Jazz play bro. I'm on them too
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[quote=However, I never bet over my head or anything that I cannot afford to lose. My units constantly remain in proportion to my overall BR. My unit scale remains between 1x-5x, but plays over 1x are very rare and have to meet certain criteria. [/quote]
Did you change that from last season, because you had some 15 units plays?Comment -
Nets are in second leg of B2B2B that is known and as Under spot. Don't you worry about it or is it not part of your capping?Comment -
apurvaas i am on the opposite of all 4 lolComment -
Is anyone else planning on playing these games at 195.5 and 210.5 and plus 6? I personally am hesitant to do so and would like to hear anyone else's opinion regarding these numbers. Best of luck to everyone tonight!Comment -
I played at + 6 the Jazz but out of option, could've bought the points and gotten - 7 also. Just thought + 6 @ - 105 was better value.Comment -
i played 195, 209.5, and 6 also.
the standard response is learn to cap a game or to not tail blindly if you aren't sure about a play, and i completely agree. so that would mean don't make bets on these, but i just tail LTA blindly in the NBA regardless. i watched him win a lot of picks that i didn't pull the trigger on before i got wise with it.
i think there are 2 games LTA has hit in this thread that he would have lost if he hadn't caught the great line, as he is almost always beating closers. my point being, though,that you are still up a pretty good amount tailing LTA even if you got bad lines on his picks. anything can happen though obviously
thanks a lot for posting LTA, you've kept me close to even on a terrible stretch of my own picks.
gl to everyone who is tailing
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I played 195.5, +6, and 210.
if i if i lose 3 bets by .5 point or soComment -
mikea I did the same thing, but hopefully they all hit. ObviouslyComment -
This is probably terrible advice.... but a lot of times if I dont get a number I want, I will buy 2/3 points and then parlay it with a heavy -1100 ml... for example, tonight I parlayed indy ml and bought 2 points to get the okc total where i wanted it. Definitely some danger in doing this so i dont recommend it to everyone... but just my two centsComment -
This Milwaukee game is not looking to hotComment
