LTA's NBA Plays

[bleedtoledo]

Lol autocorrect

[mikea33]

Lang has 75 dimes on Michigan, paid pick

He'll wiin one

[YouHave2outs]

He'll wiin one

he is actually on a nice little hot streak right now.

[YouHave2outs]

I don't know Lang. Is he a highly respected crapper?? Or is he considered fade material

considered the best fade of any tout. documented big time loser over several years yet people pay good money for his picks.

he is on a big heater over the last few weeks, though. big heater

200 dimes on giants, and 3 straight 75 dime winners. you should watch his videos regardless of whether you tail or fade. you can find them on his website brandonlang.com. they are comedy in its purest form

[KYkid89]

Nice Play LTA!

[Love The Action]

Thanks guys...we definately got a bit lucky today, but that spurs over just makes up for the warriors game that we lost to the late grizzlies run about one month ago and the bulls under makes up for one of the recent overs that we lost by just a few points.

I never forget bad beats and im always greedy for future wins. Make no mistake, we are still owed some breaks.

Tonight was definately sweet though

Lets do it again tomorrow

[Love The Action]

considered the best fade of any tout. documented big time loser over several years yet people pay good money for his picks.

he is on a big heater over the last few weeks, though. big heater

200 dimes on giants, and 3 straight 75 dime winners. you should watch his videos regardless of whether you tail or fade. you can find them on his website brandonlang.com. they are comedy in its purest form

That tout expects people to not only believe those ridiculous wager amounts but he also expects his clients to tail them as well?!? Wow, just wow. He sounds like a few of the guys here on sbr who can't maintain a profitable winning percentage so they have to make bailout 100x plays to show a profit.

[Sport_Fish]

LTA just curious about your betting system...your playing each unit @ $400? Is that what you initially started with or was this amount much lower?

[Roto97]

they are comedy in its purest form

Haha..The video on his main page is at the drive through of a Wells Fargo . Just so he can point to it, when he said take it to the "bank".

[absolutkaos]

LTA just curious about your betting system...your playing each unit @ $400? Is that what you initially started with or was this amount much lower?

3% of your total bankroll per play. As your bankroll grows your per play can grow.

[ultrasouth]

LTA quick question which sport do you believe your strength is in NBA or MLB .Thanx

[mikea33]

Michigan w/ the points

cashinnn

[dlunc3]

Philly +1 tomorrow?.. could see this moving quick..

[Roto97]

Philly +1 tomorrow?.. could see this moving quick..

I am really hesitant about Philly after watching their abominable offensive showing last game. Will they play good enough defense for 48 mins to keep Minny's offense in check?

[JM92]

Im already on the Sixers pk. I don't really care 'bout the home crowd of the Wolves and how Pekovic and Love will wear down the thin 76ers frontcourt. The Sixers are better in every, and I mean like all of them, advanced statistical category. Their defense specially is way better and so is there ability to take care of the ball. Coming of two bad losses, I seem them taking this one rather easily.

[JM92]

Oh and the Timberwolves starters have been playing heavy minutes as of late.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/18/2012 Recap

2 - 0 = +2x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

77 - 63 = +15.75x

We have had a great week, so let's maintain our consistency and end the week as strongly as it started. Consistency is key and our confidence never wavers. We don't allow wins to make us cocky or losses to bring us down. We expect to win every play, but realize that is not possible and so we always remain humble. This is a business and that's how we approach it. Time to get back to work. Good luck on Sunday.

[BigBurk]

Nice night LTA, keep the momentum going!

I was glad to see you on the under at the Bulls game as well since I had also taken it some moments before. But, checking my wagers this morning I found out I accidentally had taken the over... Smh.

So instead of a 3-0 night I "only" went 2-1. Blegh. Always gotta be carefull and double check the wagers!!

[Love The Action]

LTA just curious about your betting system...your playing each unit @ $400? Is that what you initially started with or was this amount much lower?

Started the season with each unit at $400 and am now betting $450 as each unit. As my BR goes up or down, my base units adjust accordingly.

This is my third season wagering full-time with my NBA model, although it has been in development for longer. When I was ready to take the challenge of sports investing on and I felt my model was ready, I started with $50 units, then went up to $100 and $150 as the season unfolded. As soon as I proved my abilities to myself after my first season and a large sample of plays, then I started my second season with $250 units and just grew my BR from there.

However, I never bet over my head or anything that I cannot afford to lose. My units constantly remain in proportion to my overall BR. My unit scale remains between 1x-5x, but plays over 1x are very rare and have to meet certain criteria.

Just like businesses have a business plan in order to operate, I have a plan of how to attack the sportsbooks and I never deviate from that plan. Discipline and hard work are keys. Money management cannot be stressed enough as you need a way to capitalize on your hot streaks but not lose the farm on your cold streaks.

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA quick question which sport do you believe your strength is in NBA or MLB .Thanx

I believe and have proven myself to be equally adept at both NBA and MLB. Those are the two models I have been working on the longest, in sports where advanced stats are the most important and have refined my models to a point where I am very confident in both. In addition, I have a natural feel for the market in both NBA and MLB. There is no doubt that NBA and MLB are my best investment markets.

I am not as strong in NCAAF or NFL yet as I have only shown a small profit in football, but it's better than losing money and I think next season will be a break-through season for me in both NCAAF and NFL. I suffered some crazy bad-beats this season in football which could have led to rather big seasons. However, it was not to be. I am very much looking forward to next football season so I can implement some of the changes I worked on last season and develop my football models even further.

GL

[Love The Action]

Nice night LTA, keep the momentum going!

I was glad to see you on the under at the Bulls game as well since I had also taken it some moments before. But, checking my wagers this morning I found out I accidentally had taken the over... Smh.

So instead of a 3-0 night I "only" went 2-1. Blegh. Always gotta be carefull and double check the wagers!!

That sucks, but you had a profitable night regardless and that's all that counts

Good luck today!

[JM92]

LTA, one question for you:

When you mention "models", does that mean you actually have a system that gives you score projection which you use to make your bets? I know have one as you always mention it (or almost always) in your write ups. But you also seem to provide so much information and look so in-depth at the games, that I wonder: do you bet solely base on the so called "model" projections, or are those just sort of a guide for you?

[Megatron81lions]

Love your thread LTA, your one of thr honest guys here that puts in alot of work and are kind enough to share. Just wanted to say thanks

[Love The Action]

LTA, one question for you:

When you mention "models", does that mean you actually have a system that gives you score projection which you use to make your bets? I know have one as you always mention it (or almost always) in your write ups. But you also seem to provide so much information and look so in-depth at the games, that I wonder: do you bet solely base on the so called "model" projections, or are those just sort of a guide for you?

Correct. I use my model to predict a final score based primarily on quantitative factors such as advanced statistics (think APBR metrics, Sabermetrics, etc.). In theory and practice, that tells me which way the line should move because public perception is not included. From there I full cap the game for all qualitative factors such as situational analysis, scheduling, etc. I combine both to determine what I think the correct side and total should be, thereby looking to spot "value" between my numbers and the books' numbers. I know which number I am looking for on my leans and then I read the market to get that number. Sometimes I have to wait and other times I jump on the opener. That's a short summary of my approach. Good luck on your plays.

[JM92]

Can't stop learnin' from this thread, indeed.

In the meantime, probably only because I don't have a model to tell me not to do these things, just took the Pistons to win this one. Had taken the Hornets to beat the Knicks if I had the balls (still profitted big with a 4.30 decimal odds live) and last night same thing with New Jersey. I know this is a big long shot tryin' to win three dogs in a row, but here I go. The Celtics play better defense and shoot better... but Greg Monroe has a great matchup against them, Gordon and Stuckey have a history of playing good agains them, they already beat them by 10 just 4 days ago and I think Boston will be more concerned with the Mavs tommorow. Want to try and get me out of this one LTA? Good luck guys

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/19/2012

Play #1

Bucks/Nets over (194) 1x (Locked)

I might be jumping on this one a little early as I would not be surprised to see this get down to 193.5, but I would be surprised to see this go to 193 and I would rather protect myself at the key number of 194 than risk this one going back up to 194.5 or higher. We have two offenses that are improving with respect to efficiency, but whose defenses are not good. With a game involving Brandon Jennings and Deron Williams, I expect a battle of the point-guards to result in a high-scoring game. I don't think either team will be very interested in playing defense today and both teams will be looking to pad their offensive stats in a fun offensive-oriented game. The Nets are on a b2b and 4 in 5, while the Bucks are on one day of rest and both situations have favored the over for each team this year. Last season, this matchup was set in the low 180's so this is over a 10 point adjustment which tells me the books expect a higher scoring game today. The refs are rather neutral with Phillips, Dalen and Tiven although they do favor the under this year which is not indicative of their lifetime numbers. Nevertheless, all three average over 40 fouls per game in games they ref so that is what we should expect today. The Nets are actually a top 10 team in FT/FGA so they will draw some fouls and both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in defensive FT/FGA meaning both teams can hack it up at times. I have this game set at 197 and I expect a closing number at or around 195.5. Based on the foregoing I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[tonyp0387]

LTA you mind telling me what your model has for Cleveland and Sac town total? I believe this game will go over 200 points . Thank You

[Love The Action]

LTA you mind telling me what your model has for Cleveland and Sac town total? I believe this game will go over 200 points . Thank You

I think the current number is relatively accurate. I have that one set at 199.5 and it opened at 199. Even though the defenses are pretty poor, the offenses are rather inefficient. The loss of Gibson and Parker really hurts the efficiency of the Cavs offense. With that said, the Kings play a fast pace and Cleveland will get back to that style now that Irving is back. I would lean over on the total for sure, but no play for me. Good luck in whatever you choose.

[balu000]

LTA you mind telling me what your model has for Cleveland and Sac town total? I believe this game will go over 200 points . Thank You

I'm leaning on the under... imho Cleveland will score around 94-96, while tonight Sacramento won't top 100, more like 92-94. just my 2 cents though

[NYSportsGuy210]

Sixers ML tonight boys. They lost to a respectable Mavericks team two nights ago. Can't hate. They will out physical a smaller Wolves team tonight.

Also like the Kings-Cavs OVER.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/19/2012

Play #1

Bucks/Nets over (194) 1x (Locked)

I might be jumping on this one a little early as I would not be surprised to see this get down to 193.5, but I would be surprised to see this go to 193 and I would rather protect myself at the key number of 194 than risk this one going back up to 194.5 or higher. We have two offenses that are improving with respect to efficiency, but whose defenses are not good. With a game involving Brandon Jennings and Deron Williams, I expect a battle of the point-guards to result in a high-scoring game. I don't think either team will be very interested in playing defense today and both teams will be looking to pad their offensive stats in a fun offensive-oriented game. The Nets are on a b2b and 4 in 5, while the Bucks are on one day of rest and both situations have favored the over for each team this year. Last season, this matchup was set in the low 180's so this is over a 10 point adjustment which tells me the books expect a higher scoring game today. The refs are rather neutral with Phillips, Dalen and Tiven although they do favor the under this year which is not indicative of their lifetime numbers. Nevertheless, all three average over 40 fouls per game in games they ref so that is what we should expect today. The Nets are actually a top 10 team in FT/FGA so they will draw some fouls and both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in defensive FT/FGA meaning both teams can hack it up at times. I have this game set at 197 and I expect a closing number at or around 195.5. Based on the foregoing I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nuggets/Thunder over (208) 1x (Locked)

Last year, I was cashing unders in this matchup to some nice profit toward the end of the season. However, in this game, I think the over is the play despite the injuries to Nene and Gallinari. This game will be about about fast pace and offense. I was hoping Mozgov was out so that we could depend on a small Denver lineup and ultra-fast pace from Lawson, but despite the big guy playing I still think we see a lightning fast pace out of Lawson and Westbrook who is probable and publicly stated that he is playing. Both teams are top 5 in PACE, possessions per game and OEFF, while they remain middle-of-the-road defensively. Both teams like to draw fouls ranked top 3 in FT/FGA and the refs are conducive to the over with Malloy, Kirkland and Williams. I'm not sure why this one dropped from 210 upon opening, but I'm jumping on the value now at 208. I have this game set at 211 giving us 3 points of variance between my number and the books and I think the fast pace will make all the difference. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

What do you think of the Mavs/Knicks game?

Without the Lin hype, Dallas would be about -4 in this spot. I feel like there's value in -2.

[absolutkaos]

Feeling like the Mavs are getting undervalued today....only -2 against the NY Lins? Is the Lin-hype really affecting the line too much?

[absolutkaos]

What do you think of the Mavs/Knicks game?

Without the Lin hype, Dallas would be about -4 in this spot. I feel like there's value in -2.

great minds.

[JM92]

Already took the Mavs - 2 here

By far the better team and Jason Kidd will be glad to put a end to the Linsanity.