LTA's NBA Plays

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, I like the Over. Do you also like the Clippers to win today ?

[blumpkin]

LTA i know you dont play team totals but im liking spurs tt over 94.5. played really well of late and im assuming if the game goes over this will go over as well. thoughts?

[JM92]

First day after a frantic 4 days that I get to look at a full card, even though is a little late. Obviously tailed you already, as I had a unit on that over since last night and added now a extra one for the tail. I also liked the over in ATL last night but now the line is too high so I'll pass on that one.

[Love The Action]

Brook Lopez is listed as probable on SI for today's game against the Bulls.

Downgraded to doubtful....

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, I like the Over. Do you also like the Clippers to win today ?

As I stated in my writeup, I think we see a competitive game that could go either way. I think a line of -2 or -3 is very sharp. No value on the side in my opinion. GL.

[Love The Action]

LTA i know you dont play team totals but im liking spurs tt over 94.5. played really well of late and im assuming if the game goes over this will go over as well. thoughts?

Like it

[JM92]

I so so like this over. I'm excited for the play to be honest! I just don't see how the Clippers will not want to run at home and at the same time I don't see how the Spurs trust themselves to beat CP3 and the rest of the bunch in a half-court game, even without Billups. LETS RUN BOYS!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/18/2012

Play #1

Spurs/Clippers over (191) 1x (Locked)

In the last game between these two teams on December 28th, the Spurs won 115 - 90 on a total set at 198. In this game, the total is set at 191. So are the books showing their hand on a game they expect to be low scoring or are they giving us great value on the over. In this case, I think it's the latter rather than the former. This matchup pits two of the top 5 most efficient offenses in the league, two of the top 6 in EFG% and True Shooting %, two of the top 7 in Floor % and two of the top 10 in 3pt%. There's no doubt these guys can shoot and both run the pick and roll quite well. When you compare that to the opposing defenses, I think we should expect another offensive game tonight. This is especially true in this bounce-back spot for a Clippers team that couldn't eclipse 75 against Portland a few days ago. Although the defenses are improving with middle-of-the-road defensive efficiency numbers, I think the players will want to put on a show in this game with LA playing at home. Plus, the defenses tend to struggle with the strengths of the offenses and both offenses constitute a mismatch for the defenses. The Spurs are +3 dogs and I expect a competitive game today that goes back and forth. I think this type of game is conducive to the over with a total set in the 191 range. The refs are Crawford, Jones and Nunez which is a decent crew for the over, but I'm not relying on free throws in this one considering that the Spurs are #1 in FT/FGA on defense and only #26 on offense. Still, we should get 35 or so attempts and that should be enough. Both teams average a PACE over 90 and the previous game was played exactly at that number. As long as these teams shoot at or around 45% today, this game should go over at that pace. The Spurs are coming in rested with 2 days off and the Clippers had one day off after that low scoring game in Portland. I think both offenses come out firing today. I have this game set at 195 giving us four points of value at this number (I would also play 192 for those who slept on 191). Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nets/Bulls under (190) 1x (Locked)

This one moved to 189 at Pinny, but Legend held at 190 so I jumped on it with my local that follows that book. Both games this year have gone over despite a really slow PACE under 85. This was due to Bulls shooting eclipsing 55%. I don't think we see that today. The Bulls are without Rose, but still have their defense. Nevertheless, it might be a bit hard for them to get up for this game. I expect a slow pace with rather poor disinterested basketball today. The refs really favor the under with Callahan, Ayotte and Blair. I have this game set at 188 and I'm going to take a shot on this early game under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck .

[Love The Action]

Heading out for the night. Might have one more play that I will post from my phone if I make it. Let's pick up the scoring between the Spurs/Clips and hope we don't see much in the Nets/Bulls game. Good luck today.

[JM92]

Couldn't catch that one. Since this is a game on NBA TV of Portugal i'll be watching and will not mind to give up some money in order to not root for them to miss!

GL ALL

[JM92]

Wow, as I was writing that I managed to get a under 192 (even though juiced) in the live betting section of my bookie. Awesome, lets get this plays guys!

[alamo]

Both teams 8/13 from 3pt land and Bulls into penalty with 7mins still to play 2nd qtr is really hurting us here.

[alamo]

31 FTs alreay in Chicago and its only ht. We have had 13 in LA and thats thru 3qtr. On top of that New Jersey/Chicago are 12/22 from three land. This under could be cooked.

[Trivial]

I missed the play earlier. Taking under 96 for the second half.

Hopefully we all win.

Best of luck to us all.

[Catchn_Picks]

Yea got 95.5 under...nearly 10 points of value on the closing total line. gl

[Catchn_Picks]

This is an interesting article from Doc Sports about the difference in NBA handicapping so far this year with a shortened season. Some really interesting stuff, imo.

For example...did not know this:

The Heat became the first NBA team in 33 years to win three road games in three nights.

HOW NBA HANDICAPPING HAS CHANGED IN THE 66-GAME SCHEDULE
By Doc's Sports
February 17, 2012 11:13AM ET

Normally the lines for the next day’s NBA games start trickling out by around 3 p.m. ET. But for Thursday’s three games - Nets-Pacers, Celtics-Bulls and Clippers-Trail Blazers - there wasn’t a single spread posted within 24 hours of tipoff.

Welcome to the jam-packed, 66-game NBA schedule.

Here’s how the NBA handicapping landscape has changed during the 2011-12 lockout-shortened season:

Fear of the unknown

Thursday’s trio of games was a perfect storm. Five of the six teams played the night before, making handicapping somewhat dangerous because of a potential big injury suffered Wednesday or a multiple-overtime result that would leave a team drained the next night. It's always been a danger when taking the early odds for the second half of back-to-back games, but it's even more prominent in the NBA this season.

Injury bug infestation

And speaking of injuries, there were some vital ones that would have affected the spread for Thursday’s game.

Indiana’s Danny Granger was a game-time call on Wednesday – he didn’t play vs. Cleveland – and obviously oddsmakers weren’t about to put a number on the Nets-Pacers game without knowing the status of Indiana’s top scorer.

Ditto for the Clippers-Trail Blazers spread because Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge, the Blazers’ top scorer, sat out with an injury Wednesday. And while the Bulls didn’t play Wednesday, the status of Derrick Rose remained up in the air for the Celtics game after Rose had missed the previous three games with back spasms.

Depth is the difference

Sometimes those injuries can torpedo a team, like the Nuggets, who have struggled since leading scorer Danilo Gallinari went down. Sometimes injuries, however, can be the impetus for a surge. The Knicks’ Jeremy Lin wouldn’t be a global sensation and leading New York to seven wins in a row if the injured Carmelo Anthony was out there stealing shots.

Making sure a team has a solid second - and even third - option behind an injured starter is even more important as the season wears on and more ailments pile up.

Forest through the trees

Because there are so many games squeezed into such a tight schedule there is a lot more work to do each day for cappers to find value.

With less time in between games, inside info from local papers and beat writers is harder to come by, especially if you’re trying to take advantage of the early lines. In past seasons, you could get two days of coverage on a team in between games. But with the frantic pace of the schedule, there is less time to learn about your bets.

Three’s a crowd

Basketball bettors are getting the chance to handicap teams playing back-to-back-to-back sets this season, a situation they haven’t seen since the last lockout-shortened season.

You can find nice value in overnight lines because often there is plenty of movement from when odds are released to where they sit in the morning.

The most unusual three-games-in-three-nights result this year was from Feb. 12-14, when Miami won and covered easily at Atlanta, at Milwaukee and at Indiana. That’s two potential playoff teams Miami beat as well as a Bucks club that had the Heat’s number twice previously this season.

The Heat became the first NBA team in 33 years to win three road games in three nights.

Running on empty

Perhaps the top trend this season is that tired legs usually equal lousy shooting, which then leads to low-scoring games and plenty of unders - although books have certainly adjusted totals accordingly.

Shooting percentages are down more than a percentage point and around two percentage points on 3-pointers from last season. Last year, 11 teams averaged at least 100 points, led by the Denver Nuggets (107.5). This season, just three teams average 100 or more points, led by Miami’s 103.5 points per game. The Heat are just 14-14-2 over/under entering the weekend.

No team averaged less than 90 points a game a season ago but four are below that mark this year, with wretched Charlotte at the bottom at 86.5 points a night.

Paying attention to shooting slumps and how the schedule will impact a team's ability to fix them is becoming more important for NBA cappers.

[alamo]

This is an interesting article from Doc Sports about the difference in NBA handicapping so far this year with a shortened season. Some really interesting stuff, imo. For example...did not know this: The Heat became the first NBA team in 33 years to win three road games in three nights. HOW NBA HANDICAPPING HAS CHANGED IN THE 66-GAME SCHEDULE By Doc's Sports February 17, 2012 11:13AM ET Normally the lines for the next day’s NBA games start trickling out by around 3 p.m. ET. But for Thursday’s three games - Nets-Pacers, Celtics-Bulls and Clippers-Trail Blazers - there wasn’t a single spread posted within 24 hours of tipoff. Welcome to the jam-packed, 66-game NBA schedule. Here’s how the NBA handicapping landscape has changed during the 2011-12 lockout-shortened season: Fear of the unknown Thursday’s trio of games was a perfect storm. Five of the six teams played the night before, making handicapping somewhat dangerous because of a potential big injury suffered Wednesday or a multiple-overtime result that would leave a team drained the next night. It's always been a danger when taking the early odds for the second half of back-to-back games, but it's even more prominent in the NBA this season. Injury bug infestation And speaking of injuries, there were some vital ones that would have affected the spread for Thursday’s game. Indiana’s Danny Granger was a game-time call on Wednesday – he didn’t play vs. Cleveland – and obviously oddsmakers weren’t about to put a number on the Nets-Pacers game without knowing the status of Indiana’s top scorer. Ditto for the Clippers-Trail Blazers spread because Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge, the Blazers’ top scorer, sat out with an injury Wednesday. And while the Bulls didn’t play Wednesday, the status of Derrick Rose remained up in the air for the Celtics game after Rose had missed the previous three games with back spasms. Depth is the difference Sometimes those injuries can torpedo a team, like the Nuggets, who have struggled since leading scorer Danilo Gallinari went down. Sometimes injuries, however, can be the impetus for a surge. The Knicks’ Jeremy Lin wouldn’t be a global sensation and leading New York to seven wins in a row if the injured Carmelo Anthony was out there stealing shots. Making sure a team has a solid second - and even third - option behind an injured starter is even more important as the season wears on and more ailments pile up. Forest through the trees Because there are so many games squeezed into such a tight schedule there is a lot more work to do each day for cappers to find value. With less time in between games, inside info from local papers and beat writers is harder to come by, especially if you’re trying to take advantage of the early lines. In past seasons, you could get two days of coverage on a team in between games. But with the frantic pace of the schedule, there is less time to learn about your bets. Three’s a crowd Basketball bettors are getting the chance to handicap teams playing back-to-back-to-back sets this season, a situation they haven’t seen since the last lockout-shortened season. You can find nice value in overnight lines because often there is plenty of movement from when odds are released to where they sit in the morning. The most unusual three-games-in-three-nights result this year was from Feb. 12-14, when Miami won and covered easily at Atlanta, at Milwaukee and at Indiana. That’s two potential playoff teams Miami beat as well as a Bucks club that had the Heat’s number twice previously this season. The Heat became the first NBA team in 33 years to win three road games in three nights. Running on empty Perhaps the top trend this season is that tired legs usually equal lousy shooting, which then leads to low-scoring games and plenty of unders - although books have certainly adjusted totals accordingly. Shooting percentages are down more than a percentage point and around two percentage points on 3-pointers from last season. Last year, 11 teams averaged at least 100 points, led by the Denver Nuggets (107.5). This season, just three teams average 100 or more points, led by Miami’s 103.5 points per game. The Heat are just 14-14-2 over/under entering the weekend. No team averaged less than 90 points a game a season ago but four are below that mark this year, with wretched Charlotte at the bottom at 86.5 points a night. Paying attention to shooting slumps and how the schedule will impact a team's ability to fix them is becoming more important for NBA cappers.

Very good and useful report ! Thanks for that.

[Catchn_Picks]

No problem Alamo...I have been looking for handicapping articles on the differences in NBA handicapping this year.

Do we need overtime in this Spurs game?

[aussieH]

What happened with the second Parker free throw. ESPN games score had it as amiss then updated to a goal.

[inn_keeper]

It's going to be close but I think we do need OT..

[Roto97]

31 FTs alreay in Chicago and its only ht. We have had 13 in LA and thats thru 3qtr. On top of that New Jersey/Chicago are 12/22 from three land. This under could be cooked.

Well that combined 25 pt 3rd quarter should help. Now lets hope the bulls play some def, and contain the NETS.

[Catchn_Picks]

Need a three SA!

[JM92]

14-11 the third quarter of the Nets/Bulls game guys!

[Catchn_Picks]

Well that combined 25 pt 3rd quarter should help. Now lets hope the bulls play some def, and contain the NETS.

Had to jump in on the second half line which looks really good right now. Bulls really need Rose.

[JM92]

What a steal by Paul at the Staples. Most clutch player this season so far. Not even close.

[apurvaas]

Much Needed OT in Clippers! Lol... We got over! Nice Call LTA

[JM92]

OT!

[bleedtoledo]

Overtime!

[herbi]

are you kidding meeee

[Catchn_Picks]

YYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!!!!!!!!

A lucky win for the good guys!!

Congrats LTA and all!

[br33ze]

Omfg! Yes!!!!

[Les_Nuts]

Yes!

[alamo]

An absolute miracle three in LA guys ! Paul lost the ball on the inbound and Gary Neal got it and stepped back just outside the arc and NAILED IT !!!! GET IN THERE YOU BEAUTY !

[Catchn_Picks]

What a steal by Paul at the Staples. Most clutch player this season so far. Not even close.

Agreed!

Trade of the year. Unselfish teammate. Great clutch player.

[pokerwhiz90]

that was pretty ridiculous