Maybe OT again? 
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Nets players :- Sheldon Williams, Sundiata Gaines and Marshon Brooks are 1/22 FG. I need a calculator to work out that %Comment -
Right now looks like a split on the totals and we need Utah to win the night.Comment -
How many bets have we lost in a row now that involved Houston? They seem to be our Achilles heel this season. :/Comment -
0-3? Man, that was not what I was hoping for at all
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LTA, might be worth circling the next Bucks\Nets game. These teams had 171 FG attempts tonight. Unfortunately the Nets were shocking. I think it was the right play from a pace \ foul point of view. If we get a good number for the next outing on March 12th it just may be worth another shot at the over....
Just my view anywayComment -
Has LTA won a game this year yet where he bought the hook? Not trying to be an ass or anything, just an observation that I had...seems like every time we have a -120 play where the hook was bought, the play loses.Comment -
Booo yaka in OKC! Cash the easy over
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Jazz on the road are a fade.....good at home. Simple as that. Houston also very strong at home. All signs points to Houston covering tonight.Comment -
Can you please explain how that "is the right way to analyze things 85% of the time." Please explain how you calculate the 85% number or what that comment even means. That makes absolutely no sense to me.
On the road, utah was 4-8 ats heading into the game at houston. At home. Houston was 10-5 ats heading into last nights game. Please explain how based on those numbers houston is a winner as -7 favorites 85% of the time. I guarantee you cannot make that calculation because you are wrong and just throwing out an arbitrary number that you have no idea about calculating. Moreover, in my writeup I explained why I thought utah's road woes would not affect them in this game. They could have easily covered, but gave up over the last three minutes of the game after having the cover within their grasp. I ended up being wrong because they did not cover and thats the bottom line. Nonetheless, this was a value play and utah had great value at +7 and is a play I would make 100% of the time regardless of "trends." No biggie, onto the next one.
Imho, trends are nothing more than fool's gold and will bury you long term. I am sure you will respond and say you have won with trends blah, blah, blah. However, there is a reason all these meaningless trends are splashed over every single gambling website like here and covers. The reason is that following ats trends is a sure way to lose your BR long term. The books are clearly not worried about such publicly available info because its already built into the spread.
Now, as far as criticizing my utah play, I have no problem with that had you done so BEFORE the game. To do so afterwards is cowardish monday morning qb bs. I have noticed that you like to post comments about plays after they lose rather than before the game. Perhaps that helps your ego, I am not sure. However, I can only advise you to be careful about such timing because that is how you lose respect very fast. Anyone can "get it right" after the game, but it takes a lot more to get it right before the game starts. Please dont waste your time commenting about a play after the game because no one cares. If you have something to say about a play, say it before the game and explain your position so we can all discuss the relevant issues and hopefully learn from each other. Otherwise you come off as ignorant and someone to ignore.
I look forward to seeing a positive contribution from you moving forward in discussing games before they start. Otherwise, you need not comment at all. Good luck to you on your monday plays.
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NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/18/2012 Recap
1 - 2 = -1.3x
NBA 2011-2012 Season
78 - 65 = +14.45x
Utah really let us down last night as our "swing" game. However, as I mentioned above, utah was a pure value play and one I would make again. We move onto Monday. Good luck.Comment -
I'm not writing to rub it in somehow, just wanted to point out that Rockets for second or third season straight do amazingly well ATS wise playing off a loss at home. Don't remember the exact data, but tracked that last year and this trend was hitting about 70% success rate (if I remember correctly) and I think this season it been doing well as well.
Just something that maybe we should keep in mind for future bets...Comment -
Let's get 'em today bud!Comment -
Hmmmm.... Are you saying that a 70% number (which may or may not be accurate) over a small situational sample size of about 20 or so games is predictive of future success? If so, there are so many things wrong with that assumption that I couldnt possibly have time to break it down. Bottom line is that to be a truly significant and statistically relevant "trend" it must prove successful over a huge sample of plays (think 1,000 or more). Otherwise, its nothing more than a red herring imho.
If you dont like a play because of an opposings trend, that's fine.....just don't play it. However, its going to take a thesis paper with relevant data to convince me and anyone else that understands the math behind sports investing that any of these statistically irrelevent ats trends are actually worth anything. The math says these trends are irrelevent. When math is proven wrong, please let me know.
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Let the haters hate. Your track record speaks for its self! Great call on the nugg/thunder game btw. Wonder if anybody had KD going for 51!
GL todayComment -
Its not hate...just discussion and I welcome different viewpoints. However, if those different viewpoints are not based in statistical relevancy, I am going to be a hard one to convince.
Regardless, I welcome the conversation as that is why I am here at sbr. We learn frim each other.....however, in this case I just cant agree with the opposing viewpoint because it is not based in fact, only hypothesis.Comment -
Already eyeing some plays for tonight LTA?Comment -
LTA what are you thinking about that MIN/DEN matchup? line is at 208 right now, both teams played hard last night, Denver to a tough OT game, and MIN a last second shot to win, and now travel to the high altitudes in Denver. "classic fatigue" spot? can you not see this one going under?Comment -
I agree that math and stats are important capping tools. But I always claim that it's best combined with other tools like trends, match ups, spots and so on.
Math and stats are blind to each team's individual approach.
For example, I see Houston trend that I mentioned, as something that makes sense. Good and proud team, will want to react to a bad loss and will approach the next game with a bit bigger awarness, motivation and so on.
Math and stats can't also cap something like a let down between two big games (if Orlando plays Boston for example on Sunday, Nets on Monday and Heat on Tuesday, it obvious what is the game there is the biggest chance to get overlooked by Magic).
I always like discussion and you have good and proven record, so it's always interesting to read an opinion of person that proved he can cap this league.Comment -
I could "see" every game on the board going under. However, I could also "see" every game going over as well.
Doesn't exactly narrow it down does it
In all seriousness, both of those teams play at a fast PACE. Denver is #1 and Minny is #3. Even though Minny plays solid defense this year, in fatigue spots defense can lag when both teams play at a naturally fast pace. Both teams are also at the top 10 of possession per game. When combined with pace, this is not an enticing matchup for the under.
I'm not saying the under won't hit, but I think there are better plays with more of an edge. Good luck in whatever you choose.
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I can, because Denver will try to run has hard as it can as usually even in the fatigue spot... they've got young lets and, most of all, lots of legs to say so. Without Nene and Gallo I feel like the Wolves will really have the advantage in the half-court situation and therefore Karl is gonna get them runin' again I believe. Otherwise I would've locked it.
I'm really liking Houston right now. Even on a back to back, they have a little revenge angle, Lowry is back and he played really nice yesterday and the Rockets won't be playing for two days now as the Grizz got a tough battle with the Sixers tommorow. still lookin into it though.Comment -
LTA, you mentioned you only have 1-5u plays, but you had some 15units plays last season. Have you changed that or will you have some 15u plays?
RegardsComment -
If any of you guys play second half bets, all of LTAs plays have been money lately when it comes to that.Comment -
Wow wow wow!I could "see" every game on the board going under. However, I could also "see" every game going over as well.
Doesn't exactly narrow it down does it
In all seriousness, both of those teams play at a fast PACE. Denver is #1 and Minny is #3. Even though Minny plays solid defense this year, in fatigue spots defense can lag when both teams play at a naturally fast pace. Both teams are also at the top 10 of possession per game. When combined with pace, this is not an enticing matchup for the under.
I'm not saying the under won't hit, but I think there are better plays with more of an edge. Good luck in whatever you choose.
What do you consider to be the difference between pace and possessions? I always read pace as the number of possession a team gets per game.Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/20/2012
Play #1
Trail Blazers/Lakers under (180) 1x (Locked)
Writeup to come. I don't want to risk losing out on the 180. With that said, if you are adventurous, you may want to wait as it might get back up to 181 before dropping back down for a closer I expect at or under 179.5. I have this game set at 177 and might add to this play down the road. I am rolling with the under for 1x right now. Good luck.Comment -
I could "see" every game on the board going under. However, I could also "see" every game going over as well.
Doesn't exactly narrow it down does it
In all seriousness, both of those teams play at a fast PACE. Denver is #1 and Minny is #3. Even though Minny plays solid defense this year, in fatigue spots defense can lag when both teams play at a naturally fast pace. Both teams are also at the top 10 of possession per game. When combined with pace, this is not an enticing matchup for the under.
I'm not saying the under won't hit, but I think there are better plays with more of an edge. Good luck in whatever you choose.
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