LTA's NBA Plays

[Butters850]

My local has bulls o/u at 180 should I jump now or wait or buy a 1/2 or more? Thanks for any opinions. I enjoy following this thread btw.

[apurvaas]

i booked at 180.5 a while ago.. (someone in thread advised me not to buy a point) I see game ending well U.. bulls won't let Rondo score the way he did last time! BOL

[Catchn_Picks]

Derrick Rose (back) admitted that he "wasn't able to run any" at Thursday's morning shootaround.
Rose is listed as a true game-time call for Thursday night's game against the Celtics. But top beat writer K.C. Johnson writes that "all signs point to Rose sitting for the fourth straight game with his sore lower back." We'll know the official inactives around 7 p.m. ET, but owners should have C.J. Watson at the ready.

I gotta think the net benefit of Rose sitting is better for the under. He can score from anywhere and I think the Bull's pace can quicken much easier with Rose in the lineup.

If I were the Chicago coach I would make it a gametime decision too so that Boston has to formulate two game plans.

[m3junkie]

liking the under, got it at 180.5

[Trivial]

Card Final today with only 3 games?

[Blackroc78]

Love the under here on the bulls/celtics game

[Les_Nuts]

Garnett is probable. Not only does that help the celts defense, but it also supports a slow pace as the celts and rondo don't run as much with garnett on the floor.

I can't find any news on Garnett for tonight's game, except in the morning it said he was doubtful, so I am wondering where you found this? Also, bear in mind that he was upgraded from doubtful to probable against the Pistons and didn't go, so this doesn't necessarily mean he is playing

[MrXYZ]

Got it as well at 180.5. The Bulls should contain the Celtics to under 80 points in this one. I'm also leaning over in the Clips/Blazers game, might pass though. maybe stick to one play on today's card & enjoy the action. Good luck everyone.

[Love The Action]

I can't find any news on Garnett for tonight's game, except in the morning it said he was doubtful, so I am wondering where you found this? Also, bear in mind that he was upgraded from doubtful to probable against the Pistons and didn't go, so this doesn't necessarily mean he is playing

Sports insights lists him as probable, with every other outlet having him as a gtd. I never said he was playing for sure, just that if he did play it would help celts D and slow the pace.

If I were into speculation, I might suggest to you that he didn't play last night against the pistons to ensure he was ready to go tonight against the bulls.

If I had to bet, I would say he plays... GL

[Les_Nuts]

Sports insights lists him as probable, with every other outlet having him as a gtd. I never said he was playing for sure, just that if he did play it would help celts D and slow the pace.

If I were into speculation, I might suggest to you that he didn't play last night against the pistons to ensure he was ready to go tonight against the bulls.

If I had to bet, I would say he plays... GL

Garnett's status IMO is bigger than most would think for the O/U, I have backed the over at 177.5 (as you can probably tell by my first post ) and so I am hoping for him to sit so I can get the line back to 181 and hedge. Boston without Garnett was on display last night as they played at a faster pace with Rondo driving frequently and they hemorrhaged points to Detroit with Monroe having a top night.
I agree about your theory that they might have rested him to play in this one.
However, everything I read seems to indicate he is more likely to sit.

Anyway, got any more plays lined up?

[Washington4skins]

Hey Lta, I agree that the tempo should be slow tonight but I don't really see the Celts getting blown out. Their bench has been pretty effective lately, and Garnett's condition, even if he plays, should lead to more mins for Wilcox and Bass who have both show an ability to score. The line just went back to Celts +8.5, do you see any value there?

[mikea33]

celts win SU tonight 91-85 just an eye ball of a guess. i gotta good feeling celts win this game. got a feelin they win every game tho haha

[Washington4skins]

celts win SU tonight 91-85 just an eye ball of a guess. i gotta good feeling celts win this game. got a feelin they win every game tho haha

That is what I was thinking, are you betting on the points as well as the moneyline? I was thinking I might start out with the points and wait for a chance to get them at 5 or 6 to 1 live in game.

[mikea33]

Well im on the under big....io hate having more than 1 play on a game but im a degen hahaha so in terms of my units a normal play is 3x...........so i got 6x on under 3x on spread 1.3x to win 3x on ml

[jackdean33]

hopefully the refs dont get as involved as they did last game for the celtics with both teams combined (Detroit, Boston) having something like 70 free throw attempts, just crazy.

[Pivotpoint]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/16/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Bulls under (181) 1x (Locked)

This total had been bouncing around since open and may go higher, but I am settling for 181 as that was the number I identified for this play. Last week I played the over at 173 while having the total set at 177. In this case, I have the total set at 176.5 and I'm going to jump on the value of the under. We have two of the top 3 defenses that just played to a 186 final a few days ago. I expect defensive adjustments tonight. Both teams play a slow PACE ranked 20th abd 28th and even though the bulls play faster with watson at the point, I think both teams will settle for the halfcourt game tonight. This is especially true for the celts who are on a b2b. The refs are rush, dalen and lewis, of which both dalen and lewis favor this low total under. I have this game set at 176.5 giving us over 3 points of value and the majority of all bets favor the over providing a nice public fade in this one. Based on the foregoing, I am roling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

I'm a huge Bulls fan and wanted some action on this broadcasted TNT game. Looked at the numbers and jumped on the under 181 late morning. Just read this thread and feel more confident on this play after reading your post. Prefer sides vs totals, but this number seemed to high. Many recent trends point to the under on this game. Coach T can't be happy with Bulls giving up 115 last home game to Sac. Rondo had a huge game last Sunday and confident Tibbs will game plan and demand that Rondo doesn't go off again.

Hard to imagine Celtics could beat the Bulls two in a row, but that's why they have to play the game. Just checked numbers and Bulls - 8 1/2 and total sitting at 179.5. 8 1/2 seems to high. Good luck tonight. Here's to a focus on defense and a bunch of shots clanking off the rims tonight, the majority being Celtic shots of course.

[No coincidences]

When/where did you see the total hit 181 LTA?

[sydna1]

When/where did you see the total hit 181 LTA?

I got 181 on Heritage at 12:48 PM est.

[bleedtoledo]

Garnett will play. Rose out. Celts embarrassed last night = value on Celts ML. ½ uni for me. BOL luv the under, too

[Pivotpoint]

I got 181 on Heritage at 12:48 PM est.

I just pulled up my screen and I was in right before you at 12:44. It hung there for awhile before moving to 180 1/2 , then slowly down. Viewed Bulls - 7 1/2 but didn't pull the trigger. I'm at Heritage also and maybe you know what happened to live betting in NBA? I was going to call or open up live chat and ask. I love live betting opportunities and dissapointed I'm not getting exposure. Cap a game hard and have confidence and you can get some nice opportunities for value when other team appears to have momentum.

[Love The Action]

Bro, i see you're still doing great work in here!

Hope all is well with the fam

[sydna1]

I just pulled up my screen and I was in right before you at 12:44. It hung there for awhile before moving to 180 1/2 , then slowly down. Viewed Bulls - 7 1/2 but didn't pull the trigger. I'm at Heritage also and maybe you know what happened to live betting in NBA? I was going to call or open up live chat and ask. I love live betting opportunities and dissapointed I'm not getting exposure. Cap a game hard and have confidence and you can get some nice opportunities for value when other team appears to have momentum.

I have only been with Heritage since Greek kicked US customers out. I never knew they had livebet. I use Bookmaker for live betting. IMO Heritage is only average..slow releasing lines especially in cbb.

[jimmy007oc]

I missed this play @ 180.5 . And now it's 179. I'll wait to get a good number during LIve bet

[Love The Action]

When/where did you see the total hit 181 LTA?

I jumped on it at 12:38 EST when Pinny started juicing the over 180 between -116 and -118. Whenever Pinny goes to -110 juice on one side, my local moves .5 point in that direction. Whenever Pinny goes to -115 or more juice, my local moves a full point in that direction.

That actually hurts me as much as helps me depending on the side I want, but I can usually get a better number on the other side of the juice through my other local that follows Legends numbers.

I'm actually contemplating throwing $5K or so in 5D for the reduced juice because reduced juice is so important, but I am still hesitant to put any money offshore for a bunch of different reasons that I don't have time to get into. Plus, for baseball it really doesn't matter because I do get the same juice structure as Pinny on MLB totals through my local and joining 5D would really only be for NBA. We'll see, I may still do it but I'm really not interested in getting stiffed by offshore bookmakers when I know I can trust my local books.

[Pivotpoint]

I have only been with Heritage since Greek kicked US customers out. I never knew they had livebet. I use Bookmaker for live betting. IMO Heritage is only average..slow releasing lines especially in cbb.

I've been with Heritage for a couple years. I used to have Pinny, but they booted US accounts so I rolled the money to Betjm. Betjm merged with Heritage, so now I only have one account. Heritage treats me well so no complaints, but they are bigger and a little more mediocre.

Anyway, I was using some of their beta software and then they released the url to newsletter subs. Right before the merge, they shut it down with the explanation that they needed to work out some kinks? Site was glitch free, never timed you out and had live updates. Last I seen live betting there was football.

I thought about opening another acct for live betting, but not fond of the paper trails and another source having info on me. I was grinding out profits with one offshore account maybe 6+ years ago and they went out of biz. Money was gone and that's when I signed up for sbr to monitor ratings. Nothing to like about losing a big bet, but losing a few grand when some crook goes out of biz is rough.

[sydna1]

I've been with Heritage for a couple years. I used to have Pinny, but they booted US accounts so I rolled the money to Betjm. Betjm merged with Heritage, so now I only have one account. Heritage treats me well so no complaints, but they are bigger and a little more mediocre.

Anyway, I was using some of their beta software and then they released the url to newsletter subs. Right before the merge, they shut it down with the explanation that they needed to work out some kinks? Site was glitch free, never timed you out and had live updates. Last I seen live betting there was football.

I thought about opening another acct for live betting, but not fond of the paper trails and another source having info on me. I was grinding out profits with one offshore account maybe 6+ years ago and they went out of biz. Money was gone and that's when I signed up for sbr to monitor ratings. Nothing to like about losing a big bet, but losing a few grand when some crook goes out of biz is rough.

Yea I have bookmaker, heritage and 2 locals that I use. I am trying to reduce my exposure offshore, so may get rid of one. My locals have terrible juice for bases so i am trying to decide which offshore to keep. I know bookmaker is only ok with their juice on bases, but they release lines early...does heritage have reduced juice on bases?

[Speedy88]

Agreed. I really want to open up an account with a book that offers live betting. I use BI and they are easily the best book I've used, love the free half points.

[Hw101]

Here we go defenceeeeee

[Les_Nuts]

ah well Garnett playing
hopefully it ends up between 178-180

GL guys

[Hw101]

Kg slows it down alot I'm happy he's in

[Catchn_Picks]

I jumped on it at 12:38 EST when Pinny started juicing the over 180 between -116 and -118. Whenever Pinny goes to -110 juice on one side, my local moves .5 point in that direction. Whenever Pinny goes to -115 or more juice, my local moves a full point in that direction.

That actually hurts me as much as helps me depending on the side I want, but I can usually get a better number on the other side of the juice through my other local that follows Legends numbers.

I'm actually contemplating throwing $5K or so in 5D for the reduced juice because reduced juice is so important, but I am still hesitant to put any money offshore for a bunch of different reasons that I don't have time to get into. Plus, for baseball it really doesn't matter because I do get the same juice structure as Pinny on MLB totals through my local and joining 5D would really only be for NBA. We'll see, I may still do it but I'm really not interested in getting stiffed by offshore bookmakers when I know I can trust my local books.

I think it is an invaluable asset LTA. There is not a question in my mind. I cannot seriously imagine being without it anymore.

For astute line followers like yourself, having a 5D account (and Pinny if that were possible) provides incredible options. Even lines that do not move but go from -112 to -101 juice. No juice plays an incredible edge.

What is true tho about offshore is that it is less valuable during the baseball season because everybody is on a ML play. No real line shifts during the day. But last year 5D was one of the earliest overnight baseball lines around along with Pinny and The Greek. The ability to get an early over 8.5 runs before it goes to over 9 runs in the morning is also a good edge, as you know. Matchbook was really great too but now not available to the red, white and blue.

What ever you decide...always BOL

Catch

[LeoMessi]

LTA,do you think you will have a play in the late game?

[Love The Action]

Both teams on fire early, but the pace is relatively slow. These teams won't shoot this well as the game goes on. This under will be won in the 2h as the pace really slows, fatigue sets in and guys start missing more and more.

I actually like the Clippers tonight. I know a lot of "sharpies" love the Blazers and they are the "sharp" choice. However, this is a poor situational spot regardless of Aldridge because of the 3 games in 3 days. If you look at their boxscores, guys like Batum and Wallace have been worked hard playing 36-43 minutes in the last 2 games. With that said, however, the "value" is clearly with Portland. Portland was -5.5 a few weeks ago in Portland and won. Now they are +2....that's a 7 point adjustment just because of the b2b2b and Aldridge. Those factors are not worth 7 points, especially consider Billups is not playing this game. While I think Clippers win, it's almost impossible to back them knowing you are paying such a premium to do so.

[No coincidences]

I jumped on it at 12:38 EST when Pinny started juicing the over 180 between -116 and -118. Whenever Pinny goes to -110 juice on one side, my local moves .5 point in that direction. Whenever Pinny goes to -115 or more juice, my local moves a full point in that direction.

That actually hurts me as much as helps me depending on the side I want, but I can usually get a better number on the other side of the juice through my other local that follows Legends numbers.

I'm actually contemplating throwing $5K or so in 5D for the reduced juice because reduced juice is so important, but I am still hesitant to put any money offshore for a bunch of different reasons that I don't have time to get into. Plus, for baseball it really doesn't matter because I do get the same juice structure as Pinny on MLB totals through my local and joining 5D would really only be for NBA. We'll see, I may still do it but I'm really not interested in getting stiffed by offshore bookmakers when I know I can trust my local books.

I'd be leery going over four figures in any off-shore acct. these days.

[jimmy007oc]

I got Under 183 in this game