LTA's NBA Plays

dmitean · 02-17-12, 01:03 PM

Refs agree with you on the Over in Utah without a doubt. Two of the most Overish refs are in your corner.
Good luck on all three plays!

Overbettor · 02-17-12, 01:19 PM

hey lta what do u think about the pistons -3.5 tonight? I'm going to the game and want to place an entertainment wager but am always unsure about laying points with the pistons. Anybodys thoughts would be appreciated.

fitguy67 · 02-17-12, 02:40 PM

just checking in to say how much i appreciate this thread...intelligent picks-focused intelligent discussion by intelligent people...the perfect "kiddie/troll repellent" needed to keep a long-term thread like this on course.

hats off to LTA, the regulars, and the many others like myself who make "cameo" appearances from time to time

BrewCrew1 · 02-17-12, 03:54 PM

Does anyone know if C. Anthony is still questionable for tonight's game

RockyTopGambler · 02-17-12, 03:58 PM

He's all but OUT for tonight.

tonyp0387 · 02-17-12, 04:20 PM

LTA can you tell me what your model has for the OKC total ? Seems high and i'm leaning under. Thanks buddy

apurvaas · 02-17-12, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

LTA can you tell me what your model has for the OKC total ? Seems high and i'm leaning under. Thanks buddy

i took U at 208.5

dlunc3 · 02-17-12, 05:15 PM

Gonna be down at the game tonight.... Wouldnt mind a nice 65-50 sixers win

bleedtoledo · 02-17-12, 05:32 PM

You think the 6ers can hold Mavs to 12-13 points/quarter?

Cuban wont be at the game tonight, he's got Shark Tank, so they might play more loose!

YouHave2outs · 02-17-12, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by bleedtoledo

You think the 6ers can hold Mavs to 12-13 points/quarter?

Cuban wont be at the game tonight, he's got Shark Tank, so they might play more loose!

lol yeah, shark tank goes off live every friday. are you serious?

bleedtoledo · 02-17-12, 05:47 PM

Lol, Shark Tank isn't live! Sorry, sarcasm never plays over the internet

81_84 · 02-17-12, 07:59 PM

Solid work pal. I do my own cappin' , but use your thread as resource. Gambling isn't easy , you should be proud of yourself. Seems like you have discipline and keep your cool. Great attributes to have in this business. BOL.

YouHave2outs · 02-17-12, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by bleedtoledo

Lol, Shark Tank isn't live! Sorry, sarcasm never plays over the internet

i figured as much. i actually like that show haha, only since cuban has become a reg

Catchn_Picks · 02-17-12, 08:34 PM

Let's slow this sucker down!

smarotta09 · 02-17-12, 08:35 PM

more misses dallas!

Donkeys2012 · 02-17-12, 08:42 PM

How is dallas at 23 shooting 34 percent ? WTF

rjp322 · 02-17-12, 09:04 PM

Pace seems to be slowing just a bit. Lets keep the slow pace up and o yeah please win by 4 philly. 90-86 Philly sounds like a wonderful score to me.

Edit: Looks like its going to be right on pace to be at about 180 or just shy right now (I have 179.5) but hopefully the pace continues to slow the rest of the game!

MrXYZ · 02-17-12, 09:11 PM

Would be interested in what you guys think about the Lakers/Suns total. I have it set at 186 which is only 0.5 off the current pinny line so no value either way.

rjp322 · 02-17-12, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Would be interested in what you guys think about the Lakers/Suns total. I have it set at 186 which is only 0.5 off the current pinny line so no value either way.

Sounds like you answered your own question. Now dont try to talk yourself into it

MrXYZ · 02-17-12, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by rjp322

Sounds like you answered your own question. Now dont try to talk yourself into it

Probably a good idea! But it's always good to compare numbers & do some fine tuning if needed.

Notorious_Donk · 02-17-12, 09:25 PM

Looking for one last play tonight so get the roll up a bit.

Suns +8 best play?

bleedtoledo · 02-17-12, 09:34 PM

Hilarious display of "shooting."

Catchn_Picks · 02-17-12, 09:55 PM

Really Philly? An 8 point quarter?

Is that even legal?

You are not part of the NBA elite until you beat good teams at home.

alamo · 02-17-12, 10:03 PM

Over looking solid in Utah as we wind down to the end of the half

Notorious_Donk · 02-17-12, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

Really Philly? An 8 point quarter?

Is that even legal?

You are not part of the NBA elite until you beat good teams at home.

It seems like every team is blowing their lead tonight!

Catchn_Picks · 02-17-12, 10:58 PM

Congrats on another winning night LTA...gl all.

thes0vereign · 02-17-12, 11:02 PM

Was in total agreement with your #3 play, I'm only disappointed I didn't double down!

As Catchn_Picks said above me, congrats on another winning evening to all!

alamo · 02-17-12, 11:20 PM

Yet again another profitable night !

Love The Action · 02-18-12, 06:52 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/17/2012 Recap

2 - 1 = +0.8x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

75 - 63 = +13.75x

Just keep on grinding....

Love The Action · 02-18-12, 07:56 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/18/2012

Play #1

Spurs/Clippers over (191) 1x (Locked)

Working on rest of card. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Love The Action · 02-18-12, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/18/2012

Play #1

Spurs/Clippers over (191) 1x (Locked)

In the last game between these two teams on December 28th, the Spurs won 115 - 90 on a total set at 198. In this game, the total is set at 191. So are the books showing their hand on a game they expect to be low scoring or are they giving us great value on the over. In this case, I think it's the latter rather than the former. This matchup pits two of the top 5 most efficient offenses in the league, two of the top 6 in EFG% and True Shooting %, two of the top 7 in Floor % and two of the top 10 in 3pt%. There's no doubt these guys can shoot and both run the pick and roll quite well. When you compare that to the opposing defenses, I think we should expect another offensive game tonight. This is especially true in this bounce-back spot for a Clippers team that couldn't eclipse 75 against Portland a few days ago. Although the defenses are improving with middle-of-the-road defensive efficiency numbers, I think the players will want to put on a show in this game with LA playing at home. Plus, the defenses tend to struggle with the strengths of the offenses and both offenses constitute a mismatch for the defenses. The Spurs are +3 dogs and I expect a competitive game today that goes back and forth. I think this type of game is conducive to the over with a total set in the 191 range. The refs are Crawford, Jones and Nunez which is a decent crew for the over, but I'm not relying on free throws in this one considering that the Spurs are #1 in FT/FGA on defense and only #26 on offense. Still, we should get 35 or so attempts and that should be enough. Both teams average a PACE over 90 and the previous game was played exactly at that number. As long as these teams shoot at or around 45% today, this game should go over at that pace. The Spurs are coming in rested with 2 days off and the Clippers had one day off after that low scoring game in Portland. I think both offenses come out firing today. I have this game set at 195 giving us four points of value at this number (I would also play 192 for those who slept on 191). Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Those are my thoughts on Play #1.

I am looking at a few more leans. It's interesting that the Portland/Atlanta game a few weeks ago was played at a 92.1 PACE but ended under the posted total of 184 at 181 because of Atlanta's .380 shooting %. In this game, Pinny opened at 181 and immediately was hit with over money. This one will be interesting to watch where the line movement goes. In some ways a 181 opener makes sense with an expected adjustment toward the under because of the previous game and because Aldridge is most likely not playing and thereby not factored into the line. However, Felton pushed the pace in the last game and even though he's not playing as much, both him and Teague should push it again tonight. The question is if we can expect another 92 PACE tonight or if they play slower. That will be key.

Les_Nuts · 02-18-12, 11:55 AM

I like your reasoning LTA and I grabbed it at 191 because most bookies are now at 192.

What do you think of the Total in the GSW/Memphis game? It opened at 197, now has been pounded down to 195. Must be tempting at that total considering past match-ups between these two usually go over 200

KYkid89 · 02-18-12, 12:02 PM

LTA, I've been following you for a little while, and I just wanted to say that I really enjoy your thread. It is very insightful for a beginner capper like myself on what to take into account on making a play.

Thanks and best of luck today!

tijoythomas · 02-18-12, 12:03 PM

Good luck LTA

Love The Action · 02-18-12, 01:48 PM

Brook Lopez is listed as probable on SI for today's game against the Bulls.