I will probably have at least one more play for the 10pm MLB games, but waiting to see where the lines go. Good luck to all tonight!
-
Comment -
What do you think about the angels under? Every other game in the AL went over today and just because of that im thinking of taking the under in the Angels game?Comment -
NY game doesn't look promising. Maybe overtime?Comment -
I think the long layoffs led to rust. Both team where a combined 5-1 to the over on 3 days or more of rest though. Just ended up being a bad call. I'm slumping but just need to fight through it. Nothing else I can do.
I will actually be tweaking my MLB totals models. I think my WNBA is fine, I've just had a tough time staking my units and have lost more than I have won on my multiple unit WNBA plays, while winning more of my 1x WNBA plays. Big WNBA card tomorrow though. Sorry to anyone that tailed. I will pull out of this slump.Comment -
MLB 7/8/11
Mets/Giants under (6.5)(+100) 3x (Locked)
I'm making this a 3x play, from a 2x play based on the late line movement. Let's hope this one provides a break out streak...Comment -
There goes yet another under Overs are hitting at over 80%. Lta you need to stop playing unders or certainly less of them. Were bleeding bad at the moment. Your reading too much into public and sharp plays and fighting trends. Remember the trend (overs) Is your friend.Comment -
You are still up big I guess? What is your record? ThanksComment -
Good idea to make adjustments. Good luck.Comment -
If you are referring to the Mets/SF game, that was another case of unfortunate luck and bad beats that I have suffered of late. The game was tied 2-2 going into the top of the ninth. If not for an unfortunate 3rd run which was scored by the Mets in the top of the ninth, we would have easily cashed that one. However, I can't make excuses and we just move on. I make my plays based on my model, capping techniques and my feel for the play. It's not like I don't play overs. However, I play where I think we have the biggest edge regardless of league trends. I discount league trends because the result of each game is independent of league results -- there is no correlation. I do, however, need to tweak a few things and will be making a few adjustments.
However, if you are bleeding, you do not need to continue following my plays. You can always lay off, or fade or whatever. Remember, I make these plays myself, for myself and no one hurts as much as me when they don't cash. Good luck in whatever you choose.Comment -
I believe you asked this yesterday as well. I will certainly update my record today or tomorrow. However, it was updated after Wednesday night. As I told you yesterday, all you needed to do was go back one or two pages to see my record going into Thursday. At that time, I was up over 10x in this thread for MLB (up over 25x for the MLB season as documented in all my threads) and was up over 5x in WNBA. However, since October, I am up over 130x including 60x from the NBA regular season 40x in the NBA playoffs (all playoff plays documented here at SBR).
With a full-time profession, a new son, other family obligations, plus 6-8 hours capping games every day, my daily record updates dropped to two or three times a week. Therefore, instead of just asking every day for a record, perhaps you could do a little of the work and check back a few pages as I originally requested. If I don't update frequently enough for you, then you need to do what makes you feel comfortable. Remember, I am not a sports service and I don't care if you tail, fade or whatever. I do this for myself as a way of keeping track of my plays, having a diary of why I made certain plays, and to help out the forum.
Nevertheless, I have been thinking long and hard for a couple weeks about some changes to my thread and will be making those changes starting today....stay tuned.Comment -
UPDATE - THREAD TO CHANGE AFTER ALL STAR BREAK
Despite the recent spate of losses, we remain plus units in every sport -- profitability is all I care about. I made over 100x in profit from the NBA season, 40x of which were documented in this thread and my first round playoff threads. In addition, we have profited over 25x in MLB since the start of the season as documented in this thread and those same NBA first round playoff threads (before Friday's results).
I have embarked on this second career to make money, plain and simple. However, despite having been a successful sports bettor for many years, I have only been sports investing on on an every day full-time basis (6-8 hours per day) since October. Therefore, every day I wake up after very little sleep, I try to learn something new to apply to my second career. As a result of my never-ending thirst for knowledge, I have decided to make a few adjustments based on things I have read, people I have talked to, etc.
The first change will be to the thread itself. Beginning after the all-star break, this thread will die. I have been thinking about this for awhile and I want to have an MLB thread in the MLB forum so more baseball related discussion takes place. On the same day I open my new MLB thread, I will also open up a 2011 - 2012 NBA and WNBA thread in this forum. I think this makes sense on multiple levels, but I don't think it is that important to expand upon this decision. I will be posting my all my records from this thread in the new threads, but the new threads will technically start from 0.
The next change I make will be to my unit size and range. Because I have made over 130x in profit since October, I am turning 100x over to my wife for a baby savings account. Therefore, I am going back to my original stake of around 100x (it will actually be around 130x) and will no longer be operating with 200x. In addition, I will be increasing my unit size as well. Consequently, my scale of units will be dropping from 1x - 10x to 1x - 5x. This means that my 5x plays will be 5% of my BR instead of 2.5% of my BR, but each unit will be worth more than its present value. I will only be exceeding 5x for the rarest big plays or after I once again reach the 100x profit milestone.
The third change will add more selectivity to our plays. While I am not going to limit myself to a specific number of plays per day because each day's card offers different investment opportunities, I will be a bit more selective in my final plays. I have been making a few too many plays where I was on the fence, but went ahead and pulled the trigger because I felt one or two particular angles were enough to make the play. These plays have lost more than they have won by several percentage points over a long period of time, so there is really no reason to continue making them. Even though I have won some nice unit wins from these plays, they have proven to be a losing proposition over a long sample size so I must cull the herd so to speak. This will most likely result in at least two less MLB plays per day on a 15 game card. I still expect to have 3-5 plays on a 15 game card. However, I do not forsee continuing with the 7 play + cards unless all the requisite factors are present for such plays. I would expect to stay in the 3 play to 5 play range most of the time moving forward.
For my fourth change, I will be releasing my first wave of plays early in the morning on game day. We need to start beating more closers and I will be taking more stands on plays earlier on. I will then have afternoon releases and any further releases at least 1/2 hour before game time. All of this goes back to selectivity and not making those unsuccessful impulsive plays (e.g. Friday's Oakland under play).
The fifth change will be to my writeups. I feel as though the quality of my plays has dissipated since I stopped doing the in-depth writeups of my plays because of a lack of time. I started my originals threads and writeups because they helped me think a play through from all possible angles and stake it appropriately. I think that I need to get back to those in-depth writeups to really get into a comfortable groove. Because I will need to create more time in the day (how I don't know since I am already so busy as a full time professional, a full time dad and husband/brother/son), I still need to figure how everything will work. That is why I will be using the next four days or so of plays as a test run in this thread. My new writeups will be "briefs" of the play and will follow the same format on a daily basis. I need to think of way to do this efficiently and effectively so as not to take up too much time, however, the format might be something like the following which incorporates everything I look at to make a play:
MLB PLAY BRIEF
Pitching Matchup with Standard and Advanced Sabermetric Stats:
Offensive Stats Comparison:
Bullpen Stats Comparison:
Team Defense Stats:
Ump:
Trends:
Scheduling angles:
Weather:
Intangibles:
Line movement:
I will get a briefing format together for each game. I will also get a briefing format together for NBA and WNBA games. When football starts, I will put one together for that too.
However, please remember that I do all this to make myself better. I don't care if you tail, fade, think I'm good or think I'm bad. No one takes losses tougher than me. I assure you I am doing what I think is right in making plays. However, I am not a tout and not a sports service. Therefore, I don't care if you tail and recommend that you use my threads as just another resource in your betting arsenal. I think you should always cap the games yourself and then compare your plays to other cappers. Just use these threads as a reference and not as something that is written in stone. Anyone can win or lose on a given day. I have found that my last two months have been very streaky. Before the last seven days of less-than-stellar results, we had 10 days where we profited over 40x in MLB and WNBA. Since that time, we have lost about 25x of those 40x. That tells me a hot streak is right around the corner. Good luck.Comment -
Sound very good. Good luck with the changes.Comment -
A good opportunity to make some changes. As usual you're very thorough with your thinking & I'm sure you'll start cashing winners soon, good luck!
Comment -
MLB 7/9/11
Play #1
Braves/Philly under (6.5)(+105) 8x (Locked) (Note: under my new scale, this is about a 4x play)
I am still developing my new briefing style for writeups. Rest assured, however, this is my strongest play today. I know we have taken a hit on unders recently, especially low total unders, however, each play is independent of every other play. I am going to make a play where I think we have the biggest edge. I firmly believe we have the strongest edge with Lee and Hanson pitching today. Both pitchers have been dominant all season and especially over their last three or four games. Let me finish capping the MLB and WNBA cards and I will try to get back to this one and provide all the stats.
However, these two pitchers are in the top 20 in the league in ERA, WHIP, tERA, xFIP, BABIP, K/BB and opponent's BA. Both pitcher's batted ball stats are also dominant. The Braves have the best bullpen in the league to the Phils top 20 bullpen. Neither team is that great at fielding (both ranked in the 20's for the league), but they are winning teams that do the little things required to post such great records. The Philly offense ranks middle of the pack at 16th, while the Braves offense is on the lower end at 22nd in the league. The majority of both team's trends point under and the umpire, Everitt, has an under lean with both teams plus a strike percentage of 63.4% which is on the higher end. I wanted to get the under at 7, however, it opened at 6.5 with the over juiced but since such time the juice has steadily dropped at certain outlets and I don't think 7 will materialize. Therefore, I am locking it now at 6.5 with plus odds. Good luck.Comment -
Nuff Respect LTA. Your willingness to self-analyze and not be stubborn is one of your major assets. This game is ever-evolving as we the players should be as well. I put great value in your opinions for your level-headed approach, a rarity in the majority of us impulsive gambler's.
BOL going forward, I commend you on your dedication to all the facets going on in your life, the most important of which is your family unit IMO.
Comment -
Comment -
Play #2
Mariners ML (-105) 2x (Locked) (Note: under my new unit scale, this is about a 1x play)
Pineda is just a more dominant pitcher. If you look at the stats, whether standard or advanced, Pineda dominates Pineiro. This is especially true over their most recent starts. With respect to advanced stats, Pineda has the better FIP, xFIP, tERA, BABIP, WHIP, K/BB. While Pineiro is good ground ball pitcher and has the better GB percentage and GB/FB ratio, I think Pineda will dominate the right handed heavy Angels lineup. Neither team is the best hitting team, although the Angels are a markedly better offensive team. Nevertheless, with the Mariners losing two close ones the last two days and King Felix going against Haren tomorrow (scheduled), I think the intangibles go to the Mariners today. They need a win here or face the sweep on Sunday. The Angels are huge public favorite getting over 70% of all bets, which has cause the price on the Mariners to drop. I think that has given us enough value to warrant making a play here when you take into account the pitching dominance of Pineda and the need for the Mariners to win this one. The Mariners are the play today. Good luck.Comment -
I have noticed that on the low totals the over has been "juiced' to the over more lately....could be sharps are adjusting...to the spate of overs recently.....Comment -
Braves have hit well against Lee this year, also in a game where Lee has given up 3 runs, he usually follows it with giving up at least 3 the next game until he gets back on track the game after that. Im taking ATL over 3 runs and if the total somehow moves to 6, it wont, I'll take over 6. Good luck though, I'll hedge if I see it going the opposite way.Comment -
Could be...or the books' "head-fake" you so often like to refer...I know you are always tracking things so what have the actual numbers been with respect to juiced totals. Off the top of my head, I don't think there has been more juice on the over in general than at any time before, but would be interested in seeing some hard data...Comment -
You are right if you look ONLY at the first half of the season when he was not pitching well. However, in his last ten starts, he has given up 3,0,4,6,0,1,0,0,0,6 in earned runs. Therefore, in his last ten starts, he has given up 3 or more runs only once in back to back games. In fact, after giving up 1 more runs in one game, he has usually rebounded in the next game to throw a shutout. I weight recent performance a bit higher in my models and Lee has been hot. Based on his last ten games, and rough outting last time, I expect him to rebound well today. Good luck on your plays.Comment -
Missed the line drop from 7.5 to 7 on the AZ/St. Louis total. I do lean under with two ground ball pitchers with top 30 advanced stats and Carpenter pitching at his best right now. That is one to keep an eye on throughout the day.
There was also an interesting drop in juice from the over to the under in the SF/Mets game. With Welke being a big over ump, I expected a lot of over action. However, despite the majority of bets on the over, the juice is now all over the under.
Finally, as a FYI, I do not believe that just because yesterday was 10-4 in favor of the over that today will also result in more overs or will result in 4-10 in favor of the under. I am of the belief that each game's results depends on the players on the field more than league trends. Therefore, I weight statistics higher than trends in my capping models. Just an FYI for those wondering why I may take a few more unders today.Comment -
Not arguing at all, but the facts are the facts. The trend you reference only applies to his first 8 starts, not his last 10 starts. Again, in his last ten starts he as given up 3,0,4,6,0,1,0,0,0,6 in earned runs. Therefore, only one time in his last ten starts has he given up multiple runs in back to back games. Just look at it. He gave up 3 runs on 5/16 and followed that up with a shutout performance. On 5/26 and 5/31 those were the only back to back situation where he gave up multiple runs in repeat performances. Ever since that date, he has gone 0, 1, 0, 0, 0 and 6 with respect to earned runs. I expect a solid performance from Lee in limiting the Braves to 3 or under. However, hopefully we both cash and the final score is Braves 4-2. Good luck Bernie!Comment -
Not arguing bro, just adding balance, the trend goes well past 8 starts. Starts 11 and 12 for example. In a game where he's given up less than 3 runs but the start after where he's given up 3 runs or more, he's followed the very next start by giving up 3 or more runs, if he gives up less than 3 runs today it will be the first time all season that trend will be broken. He just may pitch a gem today, Im just following the trend. Yea 4-2 Braves would be nice bro, good luck!Comment -
There is no streak!
Like I said in my previous post, he gave up three runs on May 16th and in his "very next start" on May 26th threw a shutout. In his last ten starts, he has given up multiple runs only once in back to back starts (his 11th and 12th starts like you said). I agree that the trend you reference was valid for Lee's first 8 starts of the season, but other than his 11th and 12th starts, that trend has not been been controlling in his last 10 starts. Good luck...let's both cash!Comment -
FYI...I am leaving for the day in about an hour as I have a Dr. Appt for the kid and two b-day parties to attend.
I have already locked in the Philly/Braves under and the Mariners ML. I will also be playing on the Devil Rays in the early game. For the rest of the day, I lean under in AZ/StLouis, under in SF/Mets and Cleveland ML. I will post if and when I lock those in. Good luck to everyone today!Comment -
Play #3
Devil Rays ML (+105) 2x (Locked) (Note: under my new unit scale, this is about a 1x play)
I am fading Burnett here. Although he has pitched better of late, I do not see him outdueling Price today in an early game. Price dominates Burnett in almost every statistical category, including advanced or standard stats. I think the Yanks struggle with their plethora of left handed hitters. This is a rematch from earlier in the year when both pitchers struggled, but I expect better from Price today especially in a rebound spot from his last outting. I'm rolling with the Devil Rays today. Good luck.Comment -
Leans
STL RL--CARPENTER SHUTS DOWN AZ HITTING UNDER AND COVERING RL
CARDS WIN 4-1
YANKS-RAYS OVER 8.5---BURNETT GETS LIT UP BY RAYS AND PRICE GIVES UP 3-4 MID INNGS FINAL RAYS 8-6---WIN
SD-LAD UNDER 7--LETS BE HONEST NEITHER TEAM HITS THE BALL CONSISTANTLY. LA PULLS OUT A ROUGH BORING GAME 3-1
Comment -
K I dont think you understand what Im saying, but hope we both cash, I'll hedge if I see it going your way, cheers to both.There is no streak!
Like I said in my previous post, he gave up three runs on May 16th and in his "very next start" on May 26th threw a shutout. In his last ten starts, he has given up multiple runs only once in back to back starts (his 11th and 12th starts like you said). I agree that the trend you reference was valid for Lee's first 8 starts of the season, but other than his 11th and 12th starts, that trend has not been been controlling in his last 10 starts. Good luck...let's both cash!
Comment -
STL RL--CARPENTER SHUTS DOWN AZ HITTING UNDER AND COVERING RL
CARDS WIN 4-1
YANKS-RAYS OVER 8.5---BURNETT GETS LIT UP BY RAYS AND PRICE GIVES UP 3-4 MID INNGS FINAL RAYS 8-6
SD-LAD UNDER 7--LETS BE HONEST NEITHER TEAM HITS THE BALL CONSISTANTLY. LA PULLS OUT A ROUGH BORING GAME 3-1
I like them....except for the SD/LAD under. I would generally like it, but with Harang making his first start since June 9th, I am leery of him getting shelled by a dangerous Dodgers offense.Comment
