any leans on the late games LTA?
LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship
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1Time!SBR Wise Guy
- 12-24-08
- 588
#2801Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2802Wow, huge WNBA weekend coming up...8 games with 2 on Friday, 4 on Saturday and 2 on Sunday. Perfect time for a WNBA run...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
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Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2804
Good luck tonightComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2807MLB 7/6/11
Padres/Giants under (6.5)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)
Wanted to wait for some late line movement. I like Baumgarner in this spot. Moseley has pitched well. Both teams have two of the better bullpens out there. This series is bound to produce and under and I think we have a good chance tonight. Good luck!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2808I just was in the MLB forum and saw some dude name DrZ stole my avatar!!!
Now I may need a new one...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2809WNBA Recap 7/5/11
1 - 2 = -1.6x
WNBA 2011 Season
30 - 25 = +5.7x
We're doing ok in WNBA, but we haven't gone on an extended run or had any big play opportunities yet. There is still two months remaining in the season and I'm looking forward to it. The big plays will generally make us or break us and I think we should see some big play opportunities once these teams have played each other two or three times each. These girls drive me crazy with their ridiculous play toward the ends of games -- which is why I enjoy not having to cap them every day -- but I think we can earn some solid profit in this sport by the end of the season. I'm looking for +100x in profit by the end of the MLB season, so I think we'll set a modest goal of +30sx in profit for the WNBA season.
MLB Recap 7/3/11 - 7/5/11
8 - 11 = -13.2x
MLB in this thread:
183 - 168 = +10.8x
As I said above, you cannot win big unless you win your big plays. Especially for me, as a high volume capper, I have to hit 60% of my big plays. I have had some tough luck over last five days or so, with late inning losses or BS pushes. However, that's all part of the MLB grind and hopefully the gambling gods return the favor with a little luck moving forward. As I have been saying all season, right around the all-star break is when I start breaking out some big plays. So don't be surprised to see 5x-10x plays coming in the near future. We have lost our fair share of big plays so far which has held back our profit, but we remain up over 25x on the MLB season as a whole and will continue to grind out profit.Comment -
alamoSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-09
- 7131
#2810WNBA Recap 7/5/11 1 - 2 = -1.6x WNBA 2011 Season 30 - 25 = +5.7x We're doing ok in WNBA, but we haven't gone on an extended run or had any big play opportunities yet. There is still two months remaining in the season and I'm looking forward to it. The big plays will generally make us or break us and I think we should see some big play opportunities once these teams have played each other two or three times each. These girls drive me crazy with their ridiculous play toward the ends of games -- which is why I enjoy not having to cap them every day -- but I think we can earn some solid profit in this sport by the end of the season. I'm looking for +100x in profit by the end of the MLB season, so I think we'll set a modest goal of +30sx in profit for the WNBA season. MLB Recap 7/3/11 - 7/5/11 8 - 11 = -13.2x MLB in this thread: 183 - 168 = +10.8x As I said above, you cannot win big unless you win your big plays. Especially for me, as a high volume capper, I have to hit 60% of my big plays. I have had some tough luck over last five days or so, with late inning losses or BS pushes. However, that's all part of the MLB grind and hopefully the gambling gods return the favor with a little luck moving forward. As I have been saying all season, right around the all-star break is when I start breaking out some big plays. So don't be surprised to see 5x-10x plays coming in the near future. We have lost our fair share of big plays so far which has held back our profit, but we remain up over 25x on the MLB season as a whole and will continue to grind out profit.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2812WNBA 2011 Season
30 - 25 = +5.7x
MLB Recap 7/6/11
4 - 6 = +1.25x
MLB in this thread:
187 - 174 = +12.05x
Back to back profitable days, if even for only a few units, gives us some momentum to build off going into Thursday's plays and the weekend. Thursday offers some intriguing games. Perhaps a few that I lock in early as well. Good luck to all.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2813MLB 7/7/11
Mariners/Angels under (6)(+100) 7x (Locked)
Every factor affecting this game points under. The contrarian side of me says we should go over because of that. However, sometimes the obvious plays are the right play. Both Fister and Weaver have put up unreal stats over their last three ballgames. In addition, with respect to some sabermetric stats, Fister has really excelled this year with a tERA rank of 19th in the league. Weaver, on the other hand is 2nd in the league in tERA. I have always used sabermetrics in my capping but haven't really mentioned it much in my writeups because I figured no one was really into those things. If you would like some more sabermetrics analysis, let me know. However, you don't even need sabermetrics to see how great these two guys have pitched this year. Simply look at their season WHIP and recent WHIP stats and you will see a guy in Weaver who is top 5 in the league and Fister who is top 20. When you combine the starting pitching, with two of the better bullpens going tomorrow and two offensive teams that are struggling against right handed pitching, I think you have to roll under here. I don't care that the line opened with the under juiced and was quickly hit with over money. At the end of the day, many people like to be overs after a team has been shut out the day before such as the Mariners were today. However, they have to go against Weaver and I just don't have much stock in the Mariners knocking Weaver around. With Fister pitching so well, this is a no-brainer play. To get it at plus odds is just icing on the cake. This is definitely my favorite play on Thursday's board. However, there are quite a few plays which intrigue me and which I will be following to lock in upon getting the right price. GL...Comment -
1Time!SBR Wise Guy
- 12-24-08
- 588
#2814was bout to ask you about that game & total..
looking like my biggest play of the year on the under...Comment -
gtboySBR Wise Guy
- 06-15-10
- 810
#2815man all the stats points this game under. ur right. i will play it but small. dont like when the play is so obvious. thanks for posting. glComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2816Anyone know what happened to the old sbr odds....the new one sucks for using on a smartphone. I also use soortsinsights, but I ready liked using sbrodds on my phone.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2817I hear ya, but we can't overthink this one. More than any other sport, playing contrarian and fading the public on mlb totals will lose you money. I love this bet more and more, plus it is no longer available at plus odds.Comment -
freshguy222SBR Sharp
- 12-13-10
- 421
#2818why do you think that is so? also id like to know what kind of % of your br you play your units?Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2819MLB 7/7/11
Mariners/Angels under (6)(+100) 7x (Locked)
Every factor affecting this game points under. The contrarian side of me says we should go over because of that. However, sometimes the obvious plays are the right play. Both Fister and Weaver have put up unreal stats over their last three ballgames. In addition, with respect to some sabermetric stats, Fister has really excelled this year with a tERA rank of 19th in the league. Weaver, on the other hand is 2nd in the league in tERA. I have always used sabermetrics in my capping but haven't really mentioned it much in my writeups because I figured no one was really into those things. If you would like some more sabermetrics analysis, let me know. However, you don't even need sabermetrics to see how great these two guys have pitched this year. Simply look at their season WHIP and recent WHIP stats and you will see a guy in Weaver who is top 5 in the league and Fister who is top 20. When you combine the starting pitching, with two of the better bullpens going tomorrow and two offensive teams that are struggling against right handed pitching, I think you have to roll under here. I don't care that the line opened with the under juiced and was quickly hit with over money. At the end of the day, many people like to be overs after a team has been shut out the day before such as the Mariners were today. However, they have to go against Weaver and I just don't have much stock in the Mariners knocking Weaver around. With Fister pitching so well, this is a no-brainer play. To get it at plus odds is just icing on the cake. This is definitely my favorite play on Thursday's board. However, there are quite a few plays which intrigue me and which I will be following to lock in upon getting the right price. GL...
This may very well end up being the biggest play of the MLB season so far. I am waiting on the ump assignments later tonight and if we see a favorable under ump and we can still get 6, we could bump this one up to 9x or higher as our biggest play so far this MLB season. I am not going to outthing myself on this one. The Mariners are probably the best under bet in baseball day in and day out and with them having to face Weaver, I just don't see them putting up more than 2 runs. On the other side, Fister has been dominating of yet and his advanced statistics are in the top 20 of the league. I expect him to also limit the Angels, who are one of the best under bets in their ownright, to no more than 3. We deserve a nice easy big-play win after some tough late inning losses/pushes. Good luck tonight!Comment -
aussieHSBR MVP
- 02-04-11
- 1188
#2820Let's get it.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2821
After the NBA season, my BR doubled to over 200x and since this time I have surpassed that number. Currently, 1x is less than .5% of my total BR. In conjunction to my overall success, I generally play MLB more aggressive after the all-star break and the playoff races heat up. I have always maintained that this intense atmosphere creates playable angles if you can spot them and also facilitates more play-worthy unders. I am betting with house money and will be looking to cash with some big plays and reach my 100x goal for the MLB season sometime in September. That means we are looking at about +80x from this point forward. Good luck on your plays today.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2822Added 0.50x for a total of 7.5x Mariners/Angels under (6)(+100) (Locked)
This may very well end up being the biggest play of the MLB season so far. I am waiting on the ump assignments later tonight and if we see a favorable under ump and we can still get 6, we could bump this one up to 9x or higher as our biggest play so far this MLB season. I am not going to outthing myself on this one. The Mariners are probably the best under bet in baseball day in and day out and with them having to face Weaver, I just don't see them putting up more than 2 runs. On the other side, Fister has been dominating of yet and his advanced statistics are in the top 20 of the league. I expect him to also limit the Angels, who are one of the best under bets in their ownright, to no more than 3. We deserve a nice easy big-play win after some tough late inning losses/pushes. Good luck tonight!
I'm making this an 8x play before I lose out on getting it at plus odds. I will be busy in the morning and won't have time to monitor the lines. Too good to pass up at plus odds....Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2823Twins/White Sox under (8) 1.5x (Locked)
Cubs/Nationals under (7.5)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)
Speaking of public fades, here are two of them. Public on the over in both, but I don't see it. The Sox are on a huge under streak right now and the Twins are a huge under team on the road. These series are always competitive and Pavano will not want to be outdueled by Humber. Humber has been red hot and should be able to limit the Twins bats. Let's just hope Pavano holds up his end of the bargain.
In the other game, we had some nice RLM dropping the total down from 8 even though the majority is on the over. I never had a chance at the 8 because both my locals opened at 7.5. Usually, this is a good sign for the under. Neither of these teams are hitting at the moment and Hernandez has been money at home. With Garza pitching well, the only thing that worries me is the Cubs defense and bullpen. However, I think both pitchers go at least 7 innings today if not 8 and we see a 3-2 type game.
I like today's MLB card. More plays to come. I will have a play on the early Rockies/Braves game as soon as the line moves. Good luck on everyone's plays today.Comment -
JR007SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-10
- 5279
#2824normally i would agree as I am a under player as well...but as I mentioned recently......regression is starting to set in....yesterday's games showed 6-1 over on totals of 7.5 and under...be carefulComment -
CoopstainSBR Rookie
- 06-09-11
- 7
#2825MLB 7/7/11
Mariners/Angels under (6)(+100) 7x (Locked)
Every factor affecting this game points under. The contrarian side of me says we should go over because of that. However, sometimes the obvious plays are the right play. Both Fister and Weaver have put up unreal stats over their last three ballgames. In addition, with respect to some sabermetric stats, Fister has really excelled this year with a tERA rank of 19th in the league. Weaver, on the other hand is 2nd in the league in tERA. I have always used sabermetrics in my capping but haven't really mentioned it much in my writeups because I figured no one was really into those things. If you would like some more sabermetrics analysis, let me know. However, you don't even need sabermetrics to see how great these two guys have pitched this year. Simply look at their season WHIP and recent WHIP stats and you will see a guy in Weaver who is top 5 in the league and Fister who is top 20. When you combine the starting pitching, with two of the better bullpens going tomorrow and two offensive teams that are struggling against right handed pitching, I think you have to roll under here. I don't care that the line opened with the under juiced and was quickly hit with over money. At the end of the day, many people like to be overs after a team has been shut out the day before such as the Mariners were today. However, they have to go against Weaver and I just don't have much stock in the Mariners knocking Weaver around. With Fister pitching so well, this is a no-brainer play. To get it at plus odds is just icing on the cake. This is definitely my favorite play on Thursday's board. However, there are quite a few plays which intrigue me and which I will be following to lock in upon getting the right price. GL...
I personally would greatly appreciate if your write ups included more sabermetrics analysis. I think that kind of thing is incredibly useful/helpful. Thanks.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2826Yep...and I cashed one of them with the braves over and hit the lone under for a nice day in the black. I get the regression theory, but again, regressions occur when there is an abnormal imbalance in results. There has not been ab overabundance of under results this year. In fact, there have been more overs than unders on the year, although a few more unders recently. I don't see why this big regression to the over is coming when there have been more overs. Regardless, one days' results does not a sample size make. We'll see...I'm going to continue making plays where I think the edge and value lies whether on the over or under. Bol...Comment -
Full-GrownSBR High Roller
- 12-15-10
- 243
#2827I believe you should not overthink the Mariners/Angels under for all the reasons I mentioned in my writeup. I, of all people, hate siding with the public. However, public fades on totals have not been ultra lucrative this year in MLB. Based on my tracking, a blind fade of the public on MLB totals will have you in the red at the moment. The reason is starting pitching. Most great pitching matchups are going to bet heavily by both sharps and the public. However, they also have low totals. Consequently, you will come across RLM that loses. Case in point -- check out yesterday's 4x winner on the Mariners/Oakland game. That one actually went up to 7 from 6.5 and the over was getting juiced despite 70% on the under. The result...easy under winner. I'm not saying that you should back the public on MLB totals, I'm just saying it's not as easy as blindly fading the public on MLB totals. More than any other sport, you need to pick your spots selectively when to fade the public on MLB totals because (1) the public tends to bet unders primarily on starting pitching and (2) that starting pitching generally cashes for them because of this year's pitching dominance. Plus, I think more of the real dumb "Joe Public" types are not betting MLB totals. When I talk to my casual bettor friends, they simply play sides in every sport and are intimidated by totals. That is why I generally think the "public" percentages with respect to totals may not be such a bad thing to avoid. I believe the totals bettor is the more informed bettor overall. Just my opinion though.... After the NBA season, my BR doubled to over 200x and since this time I have surpassed that number. Currently, 1x is less than .5% of my total BR. In conjunction to my overall success, I generally play MLB more aggressive after the all-star break and the playoff races heat up. I have always maintained that this intense atmosphere creates playable angles if you can spot them and also facilitates more play-worthy unders. I am betting with house money and will be looking to cash with some big plays and reach my 100x goal for the MLB season sometime in September. That means we are looking at about +80x from this point forward. Good luck on your plays today.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2828MLB 7/7/11
Mets/Dodgers under (6)(+ 100) 1.5x (locked)
I'll take this one at plus odds too. Mets offense should not touch Kershaw without their catalyst Reyes. The question is Niese, but I think he pitches well tonight. Kershaw will be looking to avenge a bad performance and I'm rolling under. Good luck!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2829Id like to play the braves over, but the line movement says under and the lineups are horrible...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2830Mlb 7/7/11
Rockies/Braves over (7)(-115) 0.50x (locked)
I'm bucking the line movement for a small gut play.Comment -
JR007SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-10
- 5279
#2831I was looking at totals in the 6.5,7,7.5 ranges
Last weeks stats (killer sports database)
so far this year
over/under
6.5...88-126
7..293-325-100
7.5...752-792
Maybe a aberration....(yesterday's results)......but I think it is noteworthy....going forwarded .....
see what happens in the coming days......bases is streaky.....Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#2832Good luck. Going to follow you on that Seattle under. I have been looking at "average over last 7 days" stats lately researching possible angles, and I think every single time I have seen two teams playing each other that were both in the bottom 5 in that category, the game has gone under, most of them 2-1 type games, regardless of which starting pitchers were out there. That game falls under that scenario, Seattle .178 over last week (30th), and LAA .223 (27th).
p.s Turned on AMC the other day, and breaking bad was on and at that exact screenshot from your avatar the second I flipped over. Instantly reminded me of you. Thought it was kind of funny.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2833I was looking at totals in the 6.5,7,7.5 ranges
Last weeks stats (killer sports database)
so far this year
over/under
6.5...88-126
7..293-325-100
7.5...752-792
Maybe a aberration....(yesterday's results)......but I think it is noteworthy....going forwarded .....
see what happens in the coming days......bases is streaky.....Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
-
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#2835Good luck. Going to follow you on that Seattle under. I have been looking at "average over last 7 days" stats lately researching possible angles, and I think every single time I have seen two teams playing each other that were both in the bottom 5 in that category, the game has gone under, most of them 2-1 type games, regardless of which starting pitchers were out there. That game falls under that scenario, Seattle .178 over last week (30th), and LAA .223 (27th).
p.s Turned on AMC the other day, and breaking bad was on and at that exact screenshot from your avatar the second I flipped over. Instantly reminded me of you. Thought it was kind of funny.
Breaking Bad is the best, but I saw some guy named drz in the mlb forum stole my avatar lol...might have to change it to "better call saul" now
Good luck tonight!Comment
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